energy trends and forecast
DESCRIPTION
Energy Trends and Forecast. ME 449 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University in St. Louis By: Scott Dixon, Chris Rolland, Sam Veague, Merit Vick Presented May 1, 2006. Energy Description. Energy is divided between 3 major sectors: Residential/Commercial Industrial Transportation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Energy Trends and Forecast
ME 449 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University in St. LouisBy: Scott Dixon, Chris Rolland, Sam Veague, Merit VickPresented May 1, 2006
Energy Description
Energy is divided between 3 major sectors:Residential/Commercial IndustrialTransportation(Electrical)
Weighted contributions to major sectors
Sector Descriptions
Residential/Commercial Limitations in source data, related consumption trends housing units, wholesale and retail businesses, social and
educational institutions and governments Industrial
Manufacturing, agriculture, mining including oil and gas extraction
Transportation All vehicles whose primary purpose is transportation Divided into categories: aviation, gas, diesel, and residual
Fuel Types
Different Fuel sources supply EnergyCoalNatural GasOilOther Sources
(Renewable, Electricity*)
Energy – Emissions Connection
Emissions are a by-product of Energy consumption
Different sources lead to varying degrees of sulfur emissionsHow clean is the source?How efficient is its use?
Data Charts
Charts show Data from 1949 through 2004
Includes analysis by sector and by fuel type
Data sources Energy Information Administration (EIA) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Residential-Commercial Energy
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
BB
tu
CE+RE Coal tot CE+RE Oil tot CE+RE Gas tot
CE+RE Sum CE+RE Other elec
Year
• The total energy used by Res/Com has quickly increased over the data range's time period, but no one source plays a significantly larger role than the others.
• Coal, gas, and electrical sources all increased over the data range, but oil decreased around 1970 and remained constant after 1980.
Res/Com Fuel Fraction
0.00000.10000.20000.30000.40000.50000.60000.70000.80000.90001.0000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
% of Total
Year
Res/Com - coal Res/Com - oil Res/Com - gas Res/Com - elec
• Electrical consumption strongly increases as the dominant fuel source
• Gas decreases but is still significant
•Oil and direct coal remain negligible
Transportation Energy Consumption
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
BB
tu
TE Aviation TE Diesel TE Gas TE Residual TE/other (BBtu) R
• The total TE sector trend shows large increases over the entire data range, save for one decrease over a short period of time• TE Gas experiences the largest increase of the TE sources driver of total trend • Residual sources remain small and constant, diesel and aviation grow consistently but slowly
Transportation Fuel Fraction
0.0000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.4000
0.5000
0.6000
0.7000
0.8000
0.9000
1.0000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040Year
% o
f T
ota
l
Ind - coal Ind - oil Ind - gas Ind - elec
• Oil is the overwhelming dominant fuel
• Very small levels of gas, all others approach zero
Industrial Energy Consumption - Separate Electric
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
BB
tu
IE Coal IE Gas IE Oil IE EL ( IE)Bbtu
Year
•The total consumption increased steadily over the data range, with the exception of a sharp decline between 1979 and 1984, and again between 2000 and 2001. There are corresponding decreases in each of the other sources during this time period, as well.
•The most significant change can be seen in energy sources included in the "other" category.
Industrial Energy Consumption - Including Electric
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
BB
tu
IE + EL Coal IE + EL Oil IE + EL Gas IE other elec IE Sum
Year
• The electricity component has been removed from the other category and distributed to its respective root sources. It can be seen, though, that the total energy in Figure 2 remains identical to that of Figure 1 as no new data has been added. • Changes in shapes of both the coal and the other curve, other curve is reduced by a factor of three, industrial sector consumes large amounts of electrical energy derived from coal..
Industrial Fuel Fraction
0.0000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.4000
0.5000
0.6000
0.7000
0.8000
0.9000
1.0000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040Year
% o
f T
ota
l
Ind - coal Ind - oil Ind - gas Ind - elec
• Electric is the largest fraction, but growth seems to level off
• Oil and gas are level
• Coal decreases approaches zero
Electric Energy by Fuel
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
1900 1950 2000 2050
Year
Bb
tu
ELEC(Bbtu)
EL Coal EL Oil EL Gas EL Other
• Coal and other are drivers of electric energy growth• Oil and gas have smaller contributions. Gas is growing slowly after a slight decline through 1980s, oil has leveled off since 1980
• Coal is dominant fuel source• Other is gradually increasing while oil and gas are gradually decreasing
Fraction of Electric Energy by Fuel
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
EL Coal Oil Gas Other
Fraction of Electric Energy by Sector
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
Bb
tu
RE+CE IE TE
• Res/Com is the dominant user of Electric Energy, and is steadily increasing fraction•IE has significant fraction, but is steadily decreasing•Transportation uses a negligible fraction
Res/Com, Industrial and Transportation Totals
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
BB
tu
CE+RE(Bbtu)
IE (Bbtu) R TE/other (BBtu) R
•All three sectors add a significant contribution to energy consumption•Res/Com increased at the fastest, most consistent rate, while transportation increased more gradually•Industrial increased at a fast rate, but saw sharp decreases around 1980 and again around 2000
Projected Energy/Economy
0.000000100
0.000001000
0.000010000
0.000100000
0.001000000
0.010000000
0.100000000
1.000000000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
Bb
tu/$
Res/Com Industrial Transportation
• Transportation historically decreased at greatest rate, while using the greatest Bbtu/$• All three sectors decrease through projection
Metal Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
Sh
ort
To
ns / Y
ear
MT SUM MT CopperMT Lead MT Ferrous/1000
• While there is considerable variation in the data for each sector, the decreasing trends occur within the same time periods for each of the metal production sectors.
Summary
Res/Com large growing energy consumption coal and natural gas are major drivers consumes largest fraction of electric energy
Industrial historically large energy consumption, variability brings
total below Res/Com coal is still significant and increasing (with EL) coal, oil and gas are major drivers decreasing fraction of electric energy
Summary
Transportationoil is major driver in energy consumptionnegligible fraction of electric energysignificant contribution to total, but smaller than
other sectors Electric Contribution
provides energy consumed by major threemajor drivers are coal and other
Conclusion
All three energy sectors are increasing Energy/Economy factors are all decreasing
Transportation shows largest decreasing rate of change
Indicates decrease in energy use per economy
Additional Analysis
Make trend projections for fuel source and sector energy consumption charts, based on model synthesis projections
Analyze links between Energy, Emissions, and Economy results
Look for meaning in trend results Vary factors to test impact on trends
References
Energy Information Administration (EIA): http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/datadefinitions/Guideforwebind.htm
Energy Consumption By Sector: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/consump.html
Transportation Energy Data Book: http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter2.shtml
Questions???