ENERGY UPDATE! Todays Material Turn in Activity 5 Turn in Activity 5 Discuss Project Budgets Discuss Project Budgets Homework 6 Help?: Chapter 9: exercises 10, 13, 14, 15 Homework 6 Help?: Chapter 9: exercises 10, 13, 14, 15 Homework Due this WED: Homework Due this WED: Climate Forcing Climate Forcing Climate Forcing Activity (6) Due Monday 10/27/14 Climate Forcing Activity (6) Due Monday 10/27/14 Mid Term II Preview 10/29/14 Mid Term II Preview 10/29/14 Mid Term II 11/3/14 (notebooks due) Mid Term II 11/3/14 (notebooks due) An Innovative New Way For Normal People To Invest In Solar Power On top of new storage-plus- solar deals for businesses, lease-to-own models, and business partnerships, SolarCity has just cooked up a new way for everyday Americans to invest in the solar power it provides. SolarCity announced on Wednesday that its now offering bonds online to everyday investors, the New York Times reported. Bonds are a form of debt: the purchaser pays the bond seller a fixed amount, then the seller pays back the amount over a pre-determined amount of time (maturity) along with interest. Its a way for a company to build up capital to finance future expansions, particularly in its start-up years. Discuss Project Budgets Discuss Project Budgets 1.Determine average per capita energy use for your city (based on the Nation State you city is within). 2.Determine cost to construct a power plant, or power plants, that can provide the total energy use (per capita use times the population size). 3.Determine the annual cost for your power plant(s). 4.Ensure that your costs fit your budget. Determine what to do, what to change in your plan, in order to satisfy your budget. 1.Determine average per capita energy use for your city (based on the Nation State you city is within). Find the Per Capita Watts per year (kW-h) egrgy_consumption_per_capita Find the Per Capita Watts per year (kW-h) egrgy_consumption_per_capita Multiply this use by the population to determine annual energy need. Multiply this use by the population to determine annual energy need. Divide total kW-h by the hours in a year to determine size of power plant output. Divide total kW-h by the hours in a year to determine size of power plant output. Per Capita = 10,000 kW-h (listed as Watts per year) (1,000 people)*(10,000 kW-h per person) = 10,000,000 kW-h per year 10,000,000 kW-h per year/(365 days/year * 24 hrs/day) = 1,141 kW (size of power plant need) 2.Determine cost to construct a power plant, or power plants, that can provide the total energy use (per capita use times the population size). Find out the cost per kW to construct various power plants. e.g.Find out the cost per kW to construct various power plants. e.g.Multiply the size of your power plant by the cost per kW to determine cost to construct your power plant. Multiply the size of your power plant by the cost per kW to determine cost to construct your power plant. Power Plant Overnight Capital Cost in $/kW = $4,000 (1,141 kW)*($4,000/kW) = $4,566,210 3.Determine the annual cost for your power plant(s), Determine the O&M costs $/kW-yr. e.g.Determine the O&M costs $/kW-yr. e.g.Multiply your annual usage (consumption, kW-h) by the cost per kW-h to determine your annual cost to maintain. Multiply your annual usage (consumption, kW-h) by the cost per kW-h to determine your annual cost to maintain. O&M costs = $50/kW-year ($50/kW-year)*(1,141 kW) = $57,050/year 4.Ensure that your costs fit your budget. Determine what to do, what to change in your plan, in order to satisfy your budget. Spread out the cost to construct the power plant(s) over 20 years. Spread out the cost to construct the power plant(s) over 20 years. Add the construction costs to the O&M costs to see if the people will be able to afford your electricity. Add the construction costs to the O&M costs to see if the people will be able to afford your electricity. $4,566,210 / 20 years = $228, / year ($228, / year) + ($57,050/year) = $285,360.50/year ($285,387.50/year) / (1,000 people) = $ / person per year Year Carbon Emissions billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion of metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) billion metric tonnes (GtC) Data for Global Carbon Emissions (Fossil fuels, cement, land-use change) The data in this graph show that temperatures have risen and fallen with CO2 concentrations over the last 400,000 years. More recent data have shown the same relationship extends 650, 000 years or more. Gas bubbles from ice cores show that there is now 36% more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that at any time in at least the last 650,000 years. How do heat-trapping gases work? The energy from the sun that reaches Earth's surface is mostly "shortwave" radiation - mostly visible light. This energy passes freely through the atmosphere and is absorbed by Earths surface. The surface warms from the energy input, and some of its heat projects back to the atmosphere as infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb 95% of the energy in infrared radiation, allowing only 5% to pass into space. When greenhouse gases absorb energy, heat is released in all directions, including back towards Earth. As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, this insulating blanket thickens, further warming the Earth The graph on the right shows the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earths atmosphere (left curve), and the infrared energy projected from the Earths surface (right curve). Absorption values for some of the atmospheric heat-trapping gases are given by color; white peaks represent the energy that fully passes through the atmosphere. Changes in climate forcings since Positive forcings result in warming; negative forcings result in cooling. Error bars show uncertainties, some of which are relatively large. The well-mixed greenhouse gases are stacked in a single bar. The only natural forcing shown here is solar forcing, resulting from changes in the Suns power output. Not shown are anthropogenic forcings due to aviation- induced clouds (contrails) and the sporadic natural forcing associated with individual volcanic eruptions. This graph, based on 2007 IPCC data, may underestimate the positive forcing due to black carbon aerosol. This graph shows yearly trends in annual regional carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion between 1971 and Excluding China, countries are grouped into the following regions: OECD Americas, OECD Asia Oceania, OECD Europe, Africa, Middle East, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, Latin America, Asia, and China. Launch CO2 flux USA video Atmospheric CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O concentration history over the industrial era (right) and from year 0 to the year 1750 (left), determined from air enclosed in ice cores and firn air (colour symbols) and from direct atmospheric measurements (blue lines, measurements from the Cape Grim observatory) Vostok ice core records for carbon dioxide concentration and temperature change. https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm Data from Antarctic ice cores reveals an interesting story for the past 400,000 years. During this period, CO2 and temperatures are closely correlated, which means they rise and fall together. However, based on Antarctic ice core data, changes in CO2 follow changes in temperatures by about 600 to 1000 years, as illustrated in Figure 1 below. This has led some to conclude that CO2 simply cannot be responsible for current global warming. Vostok ice core records for carbon dioxide concentration and temperature change. https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm In the case of warming, the lag between temperature and CO 2 is explained as follows: as ocean temperatures rise, oceans release CO 2 into the atmosphere. In turn, this release amplifies the warming trend, leading to yet more CO 2 being released. This positive feedback is necessary to trigger the shifts between glacials and interglacials as the effect of orbital changes is too weak to cause such variation. Average global temperature (blue), Antarctic temperature (red), and atmospheric CO 2 concentration (yellow dots). https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm The Earth's orbital cycles triggered warming in the Arctic approximately 19,000 years ago, causing large amounts of ice to melt, flooding the oceans with fresh water. This influx of fresh water then disrupted ocean current circulation, in turn causing a seesawing of heat between the hemispheres. The Southern Hemisphere and its oceans warmed first, starting about 18,000 years ago. As the Southern Ocean warms, the solubility of CO 2 in water falls. This causes the oceans to give up more CO 2, releasing it into the atmosphere. While the orbital cycles triggered the initial warming, overall, more than 90% of the glacial-interglacial warming occurred after that atmospheric CO 2 increase. https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm Positive and negative feedback There are two kinds of feedback in terms of amplifying warming (+ve) or reducing warming (-ve). The figure above shows the increase in atmospheric CO2 (red line), the increase in CO2 gas of the waters in the middle of the Pacific (dark blue), and the decline of ph from 8.11 to 8.07 since 1988 (24 years, light blue). Launch land connection video Watching the Earth Breathe: An Animation of Seasonal Vegetation and its effect on Earth's Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Launch Global plant carbon uptake video How Much Carbon do Plants Take from the Atmosphere? Launch Africa plant carbon uptake video How Much Carbon do Plants Take from the Atmosphere? Simplified schematic of the global carbon cycle. Numbers represent reservoir mass, also called carbon stocks in Pg C (1 Pg C = 1,015 g C) and annual carbon exchange fluxes (in Pg C yr1). Black numbers and arrows indicate pre-industrial reservoir mass and exchange fluxes. Black numbers and arrows indicate pre-industrial reservoir mass and exchange fluxes. Red arrows and numbers indicate annual anthropogenic fluxes averaged over the 2000 2009 time period. Red arrows and numbers indicate annual anthropogenic fluxes averaged over the 2000 2009 time period. The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in ocean water (y axis) depends on the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere (shaded curves) and the temperature of the water (x axis). This simplified graph shows that as atmospheric CO 2 increases from pre- industrial levels (blue) to double (2X) the pre-industrial amounts (light green), the ocean CO 2 concentration increases as well. However, as water temperature increases, its ability dissolve CO 2 decreases. Global warming is expected to reduce the oceans ability to absorb CO 2, leaving more in the atmospherewhich will lead to even higher temperatures. In the short term, the ocean absorbs atmospheric carbon dioxide into the mixed layer, a thin layer of water with nearly uniform temperature, salinity, and dissolved gases. Wind- driven turbulence maintains the mixed layer by stirring the water near the oceans surface. Over the long term, carbon dioxide slowly enters the deep ocean at the bottom of the mixed layer as well in in regions near the poles where cold, salty water sinks to the ocean depths. CO 2 dissolves in water to form carbonic acid. (It is worth noting that carbonic acid is what eats out limestone caves from our mountains.) In the oceans, carbonic acid releases hydrogen ions (H+), reducing pH, and bicarbonate ions (HCO3-). CO 2 + H 2 O => H + + HCO 3 - (1) The additional hydrogen ions released by carbonic acid bind to carbonate ions (CO 3 2- ), forming additional HCO 3 -. H + + CO 3 2- => HCO 3 - (2) This reduces the concentration of CO 3 2-, making it harder for marine creatures to take up CO 3 2- to form the calcium carbonate needed to build their exoskeletons. Ca 2+ + CO 3 2- => CaCO 3 (3) The two main forms of calcium carbonate used by marine creatures are calcite and aragonite. Decreasing the amount of carbonate ions in the water makes conditions more difficult for both calcite users (phytoplankton, foraminifera and coccolithophore algae), and aragonite users (corals, shellfish, pteropods and heteropods). In certain areas near the polar oceans, the colder surface water also gets saltier due to evaporation or sea ice formation. In these regions, the surface water becomes dense enough to sink to the ocean depths. This pumping of surface water into the deep ocean forces the deep water to move horizontally until it can find an area on the world where it can rise back to the surface and close the current loop The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. Launch thermohaline conveyor video Figure 1 shows a simplified diagram of the global carbon cycle. The open arrows indicate typical timeframes for carbon atoms to be transferred through the different reservoirs. Figure 2 illustrates the decay of a large excess amount of CO2 (5000 Pg C, or about 10 times the cumulative CO2 emitted so far since the beginning of the industrial Era) emitted into the atmosphere, and how it is redistributed among land and the ocean over time. During the first 200 years, the ocean and land take up similar amounts of carbon. On longer time scales, the ocean uptake dominates mainly because of its larger reservoir size (~38,000 Pg C) as compared to land (~4000 Pg C) and atmosphere (589 Pg C prior to the Industrial Era). Because of ocean chemistry the size of the initial input is important: higher emissions imply that a larger fraction of CO2 will remain in the atmosphere. After 2000 years, the atmosphere will still contain between 15% and 40% of those initial CO2 emissions. A further reduction by carbonate sediment dissolution, and reactions with igneous rocks, such as silicate weathering and sediment burial, will take anything from tens to hundreds of thousands of years, or even longer. Launch RCP 2.6 video These visualizations represent the mean output of how certain groups of CMIP5 models responded to four different scenarios defined by the IPCC called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These four RCPs - 2.6, 4.5, 6 and represent a wide range of potential worldwide greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration scenarios for the coming century. The pathways are numbered based on the expected Watts per square meter - essentially a measure of how much heat energy is being trapped by the climate system - each scenario would produce Launch RCP 8.5 video The carbon dioxide concentrations in the year 2100 for each RCP are: RCP 2.6: 421 ppm RCP 4.5: 538 ppm RCP 6: 670 ppm RCP 8.5: 936 ppm