energy webinar slides mar 9 public
DESCRIPTION
Economist Intelligence Unit Energy Deep Drill AnalysisTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Driving Energy TransformationA look at energy trends to 2020
Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing
Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy
March 9, 2010
![Page 2: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Today’s Presenters
Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy
Location: London, UK
Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing
Location: London, UK
![Page 3: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Research and advisory arm of The Economist Group for business executives
650 analysts and industry specialists worldwide covering
• Analysis and forecasting for over 200 countries and territories
• Risk assessment
• Market sizing
• Industry data and trendsautomotive, consumer goods, energy, financial services, healthcare, technology
![Page 4: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Familiar themes, unprecedented uncertainty
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Resource competitionResource nationalism
Policy uncertainty
Curbing & Pricing CO2
Energy security
![Page 5: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
EIU Energy Briefing – data tool
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
EnergyDeep-drill
![Page 6: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
EIU Energy Briefing – Deep drill
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
ObjectivesA dynamic tool to deal with uncertainty, complexityAdaptable to new information
Energy Briefing Deep-drill approach
EIU’s country-based approachIEA’s historic data for consistencyEIU Economic and Demographic ForecastsNational energy plans as reference pointEIU Country analysts change forecasts as new information emerges
Go to www.eiu.com/energydd
![Page 7: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Country energy profiles in numbers
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
China’s energy mix
![Page 8: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Big picture – China’s key target
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 08 11 14 17 20
China USA
Not quite there (China, US Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
China’s 2020 target is 40-45% of 2005; At 34%, it falls short
US energy intensity declines by 23%
![Page 9: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
US – China: passing on the escalator
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Overall energy consumption stays fairly flat but the US struggles to meet goal of 17% CO2 cut by 2020
China, already ahead of US as largest outright CO2 emissions, doubles CO2 by 2020 as it surges pastUS in outright energy consumption
![Page 10: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CHINA: Rising gas keeps fossil fuel dominant
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
•Total energy consumption more than doubles to 3.6bn toe
•Fossil fuels’ combined share rises to 87% from 85%
•The rise is due to a nine-fold increase in gas consumption
•Coal remains dominant but its overall share drops from 64% to 61%
•Oil product demand rises 56% as the transportation sector expands
![Page 11: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Nuclear, Wind share may grow more
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
•Electricity capacity to double by 2020
•Conservatively, Nuclear and Wind share will double –room to improve those targets
•Though Hydro grows 65%, its share falls
•Combustible fuels takes a growing share
![Page 12: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Next leap forward
Zhang Guobao, boss of China’s National Energy Administration What might change?
•New “super ministry” created –National Energy Commission, headed by Prime Minister
•NEA 10-year plan to focus on 15% of total energy consumption from renewables
•Nuclear target may be increased –already raised twice but target share may rise to 5%
•More aggressive target for wind and other key renewables
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
![Page 13: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
A “BRICET” Example - Turkey
Without nuclear, the rise in electricity demand is to be met mainly from
![Page 14: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Turkey – making small “green” gains
Relatively stable coal, oil and gas shares – renewables share grows from 8.4% to 10.25% in 2020. Wild cards are nuclear and privatisaion
![Page 15: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Nuclear could have big impact
Taner Yildiz, Turkey’s energy ministerWhat could change?
•Nuclear could add as much as 9Gw, or 15% of electricity capacity, if Russian and Korean plans are completed
•Joint government ownership is likely, but the idea of public-private partnerships for nuclear has been floated
•Government is on track to have electricity fully privatised by 2013
•Turkey’s gas needs are projected to grow 47.5% by 2020
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
![Page 16: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
UK, gassing up
Natural gas takes up the slack as coal’s share declines
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
![Page 17: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Ambitious targets
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
![Page 18: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Coal economics
Drax Power Station – Selby, United Kingdom
•A belwether plant, accountsfor about 5% of UK capacity
•Most recently completed coal-firedPlant in UK
•Emits about 4% of UK CO2 emissions
•Has biomass co-firing capability of 500Mw
•Uneconomic to run biomass at CO2, subsidy prices
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
![Page 19: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Questions and Answers
![Page 20: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
More Information?
Holly DonahueMarket Development [email protected] (212) 541 - 0596
Data and analysis from today’s presentation were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s energy briefing services. For more information on these services, please visit
www.eiu.com/energyddFor other services from the EIU including country analysis and forecasting, risk assessment, and economic data, please visit www.eiu.com
Have a question for our editors or would like more information on the EIU? Please contact:
![Page 21: Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051513/5464055db4af9f493f8b47a3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Thank you