New emerging issues for energy research and policy

SESTI workshop 29 november 2010

Brussel

Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation p 35

Renewables from the deserts (desertec) p 51

Bio-mimics as leading principle for real renewable energy p 63

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy , The importance of sustainable energy carriers p 83

Deeper an further, known or unknown risks p 95

THE SELECTED ISSUESFor this workshop

Voting

Impact

Evidence

Plausibility

Novelty

Policy implications

General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging

Hybrid nuclear energy, box of Pandora or salvation

Hybrid nuclear energy The Story

• Hybrids may be feasible in 20 yrs

• Nuclear fusion 20-30 yrs earlier than expected

• Getting rid of nuclear waste and arms

• 30 % to 60 % of US electricity nuclear in 2100

• Prolonging existing fission reactors

Hybrid nuclear energy Other aspects

• Feasibility, Accidents and safety (MIT critics)

• Fear for invisible threat

• Prolonging existing fission reactors

• Centralized energy production

• Interests , the present nuclears, military, the greens?

Hybrid nuclear energy, policy aspects

• New research development spin off to real fusion

• Safety seems key

• Investment choices

• Public debate

Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)

Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)the story

• DESERTEC exploits solar (and wind) energy from sun rich waste lands to develop the regions and to export to the hungry for energy

• In 2050 Solar parks in Morocco will supply clean and cheap electricity to the Sahara supplying water purification and irrigation works

• High voltage DC lines will bring the electricity to Europe covering 15% of the electricity need

Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)the story

• Local development and relationships with Europe can both be enhanced at the same time

• The idea of DESERTEC is spreading to regions all over the world with similar win –win situations

• DESERTEC story seems till now a feel good story

Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)other aspect

• There may be serious material constraints for the material needed to built the solar parks and the additional grid

• Dependency and vulnerability (centralized provisions)

• The facilities focus on electricity production although other carriers are not excluded

• There may be a trade off with the supply of gas from Russia (which is also used for electricity) and or with the number of nuclear plants

Renewables from deserts (DESERTEC)policy aspects

• material constraints for the material needed to built the solar parks and the additional grid should be examined

• DESERTEC streamlines a lot of research around the use of solar (and wind) , perhaps the bio-line can also be included

• The trade off with the supply of gas from Russia (which is also used for electricity) and or with nuclear plans in Europe needs wider policy consideration

Bio-mimics leading principle renewable energy The story

Bio-mimics leading principle renewable energy The story

+ CO2 Water

CarbohydratesFuel + energy for all life and human activity

Photosynthesis

Burning + feedingDissimilation

Fixed Carbon

Fixed Carbon

In living plants

Sequestration in bottom or material - wood

O2

+ CO2 Water

More CarbohydratesFuel + energy for all life and human activity

More (effcient) Photosynthesis

More SequestrationIn plants + artificial biobased foto cells

Burning and feedingDissimilation

Fixed Carbon

Higher efficiency + more surface

More SequestrationIn bottom- plants-materials

O2

ENLARGING THE GREEN SPACE (MORE EFFCIENT AND MORE PHOTOSYNTHESIS

Increase of photosynthesisthe story

• Using desert land to catch the sun with (artifical) vegetation

• Improve the efficiency of vegetation agricultural photosynthesis

• Artificial photosynthesis to sequestrate CO2 and to make fuel

• Almost no need for materials that may be scarce or polluting

• Nearly sustainable, local and central energy provisions possible

Increase of photosynthesisother aspects

• Land use

• Biodiversity

• Nutrient cycle stress

• Increased flow of CO2 if we use parts of the additional efficiency for increased energy use of human production

• Indirect electricity (loss of efficiency)

• Artificial still long time to go

Increase of photosynthesispolicy implications

• Concentrated inter disciplinary research needed to increase photosynthetic activity in existing eco-agricultural production and in non productive areas (deserts)

• Research to sequestration balances

• Need for thought on type of fuel (ethanol, hydrogen?), planning of land use

• Line of thought to produce energy with CO2 sequestrated material deserves more attention (wooden mills)

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economy

how does H2 fit in these reactions

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economythe story (1)

• A hydrogen economy cannot exist without leakage to the atmosphere , hydrogen goes is lighter than air and goes to the Atmosphere

• Hydrogen in the stratosphere is suspected to react with oxygen and ozone causing additional stratospheric clouding, this may influence the climate and the Ozon layer

• Studies are scarce and contradictory in their findings from increasing the Ozone hole to diminishing the Ozone hole, but agree upon cooling effects

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economythe story (2)

• It is generally accepted that fossil fuels should be replaced by energy carriers that are considered as more sustainable as hydrogen and electricity

• There is a danger that choices towards these carriers get framed , any question mark should be answered in a clear way before societies create path dependencies that are involved in the choices

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economyOther aspects

• The stratosphere comes more and more under pressure, the US and probably also other great powers of the world are continuously experimenting with airplanes that can fly in the higher atmosphere (based on hydrogen rich fuels)

• Next to this studies point to the fact that industrialisation in Tropical regions also brings many gases in the atmosphere that do not belong there, consequences are unknown

The unknown risk of Hydrogen economyPolicy implications

• Further research is needed to charter the possible risks of the different types of energy carriers, from the renewable perspective these are recycled carbohydrates from bio(mic) origin, hydrogen and electricity.

• For fossil fuels similar charters should be made on the different artificially adapted or processed types of gas , oil and coal.

Deeper and further known and unknown risks

Deeper and further known and unknown risks The story (1)

• Deep sea drilling has come up the last decades after a century of land drilling and some decades of offshore drilling

• History proofs that drilling always contains risk of spills , also it is clear that closing oils wells can be very difficult Many areas on land are severely polluted causing water wells to become useless

• Sea spill effects on the short term are disastrous for sea life while long term effects are much more harder to study because of the travel that oils spills make through the sea.

Deeper and further known and unknown risks The story (2)

• The more further the more deeper the drilling takes place the more harder it seems to close wells that burst out

• Grave accidents with very large economic losses and enormous environmental disasters like the two incidents in the Gulf of Mexico seem not to influence the main strategy of oil companies

• This seems or is un logic since the BP leak shows that oil companies may even become bankrupt in one day by there risk taking behaviour.

Deeper and further known and unknown risksother aspects

• The behaviour can be explained by the path dependency and the interrelated interests that have merged in the last century that make it impossible for oil companies to make real transitions to renewables

• What counts for the companies, counts also for countries that still develop plans and constructions as pipelines to remote areas where oil can be drilled or mined and where it may be even more difficult to close wells that grow out of control.

Deeper and further known and unknown risksPolicy implications

• Oil companies and countries should be encouraged strongly to develop clear plans on reducing their dependency on the remote wells and how they will enlarge their productivity in (real) renewables

• Independent research to consequences of oil spills should be undertaken,

Hybrid nuclear energy

• Impact (from 1 very small …to …. 5 very largel)

• Evidence (from 1 weak … to … 5 strong)

• Plausibility (from 1 weak…. to… 5 strong)

• Novelty (from 1 known to everyone who should know ………5 known to some individuals )

• Policy implications (from 1 none …to…. 5 many)

• General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging ( from 1 weak …to …. 5 strong)

Renewables from the deserts

• Impact (from 1 very small …to …. 5 very largel)

• Evidence (from 1 weak … to … 5 strong)

• Plausibility (from 1 weak…. to… 5 strong)

• Novelty (from 1 known to everyone who should know ………5 known to some individuals )

• Policy implications (from 1 none …to…. 5 many)

• General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging ( from 1 weak …to …. 5 strong)

Bio-mimics as leading principle

• Impact (from 1 very small …to …. 5 very largel)

• Evidence (from 1 weak … to … 5 strong)

• Plausibility (from 1 weak…. to… 5 strong)

• Novelty (from 1 known to everyone who should know ………5 known to some individuals )

• Policy implications (from 1 none …to…. 5 many)

• General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging ( from 1 weak …to …. 5 strong)

The unknown risk of Hydrogen

• Impact (from 1 very small …to …. 5 very largel)

• Evidence (from 1 weak … to … 5 strong)

• Plausibility (from 1 weak…. to… 5 strong)

• Novelty (from 1 known to everyone who should know ………5 known to some individuals )

• Policy implications (from 1 none …to…. 5 many)

• General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging ( from 1 weak …to …. 5 strong)

Deeper and further

• Impact (from 1 very small …to …. 5 very largel)

• Evidence (from 1 weak … to … 5 strong)

• Plausibility (from 1 weak…. to… 5 strong)

• Novelty (from 1 known to everyone who should know ………5 known to some individuals )

• Policy implications (from 1 none …to…. 5 many)

• General assessment of the strength of the issue as new emerging ( from 1 weak …to …. 5 strong)