engaging developing countries in climate protection sei next steps post-kyoto march 30, 2005

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Engaging Developing

Countries in Climate Protection

SEI Next Steps Post-KyotoMarch 30, 2005

Kevin A. Baumert ([email protected])Climate, Energy, and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

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• The importance of developing country engagement

• Barriers to engagement• Options for engagement• Conclusions

Overview

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• It is not possible to achieve the UNFCCC objective without substantial participation from developing countries

• ~ 80% of world population• ~ 40% of global economy• > 50% of world GHG emissions

(including all gases and sources)

Importance of Developing Country Engagement

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Source: CAIT, WRI (2004).

MtC % of World

Top 15 GHG Emitters (6 gases, 2000)

Industrialized: 52%Industrialized: 52%Developing: 48%Developing: 48%

1. USA 1,890 20.6% 2. China 1,349 14.8% 3. EU (25) 1,287 14.0% 4. Russia 524 5.7% 5. India 502 5.5% 6. Japan 364 4.0% 7. Brazil 230 2.5% 8. Canada 184 2.1% 9. Korea (South) 143 1.6% 10. Ukraine 141 1.6% 11. Mexico 139 1.5% 12. Indonesia 135 1.5% 13. Australia 130 1.4% 14. Iran 120 1.3%

15. South Africa 113 1.2% Rest of World 1,908 20.8%

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0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

13,500

15,000

World Developing

57%

35%84%

Mil

lion

s of

Ton

s of

Carb

on

Eq

uiv

.

Developing countries are expected to grow fastest; growth in U.S. emission is large.

World Developed DevelopingWorld Developed Developing

Projected emissions, 2025

2000 Emissions

GHG Emission Projections

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Mil

lion

s of

Ton

s of

Carb

on

Eq

uiv

.

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

U.S . China E.U. FSU India Africa Brazil Japan Mexico

Projected emissions, 2025

2000 Emissions

39%

118%

19%42%

70%80% 68%

26%124%

GHG Emission ProjectionsDeveloping countries are expected to grow fastest; growth in U.S. emission is large.

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• Perceptions that… – The U.S.—the world’s largest contributor to

climate change—is not doing enough, and has dropped out of the Kyoto negotiations

– Costs of climate protection are high, and technologies needed are unavailable, or prohibitively expensive

– Climate protection measures compromise development interests and priorities

– Technical and institutional capacity problems (e.g., lack of good data, uncertainties, etc.)

Barriers to Engagement

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Options for Engagement

• Emission targets (Kyoto-style)• Emission-intensity targets (GHG/GDP)• Non-binding targets• Policies and measures (SD-PAMs)• Technology/sectoral cooperation• Sector/Policy-based Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM)• Project-based CDM (status quo)All of these are being explored and

analyzed.

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Emissions Targets

• Targets: default “post-Kyoto” approach• “Developing country targets” view is

expressed in 1998 Byrd-Hagel resolution and more recent floor statements

• Main problems– Uncertainty of emission forecasts– Perceived as threat to development, rather than

benefit– Technical and institutional capacity

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Projections are Unreliable

• US DOE “Reference Case” CO2 projections for China in 2010:

– 1995 estimate: 1,237 MtC (range: 993 – 1520)– 2004 estimate: 1,102 MtC (range: 1041 –

1176)

• Estimates vary year to year• Uncertainty range (high-low) is very

large• Legally binding targets unlikely

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Number of People without Electricity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

s

South Asia East Asia/China Latin AmericaMiddle East Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa

Source: WEO 2002

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Emissions Targets are

Unlikely

• Implications– Global (i.e., North-South) system GHG

allowance trading is unlikely in the near to medium term

– Other options need further examination and pursuit

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“Sustainable Development

PAMs”• Pursue economic development and

technology strategies that are also climate-friendly (SD-PAMs)

• Helps overcome aforementioned barriers• Look to:

– Key development needs/interests (electric power, mobility, energy security, employment, etc.)

– Key countries (India, China, Brazil, others)– Key sectors (transport, power, land use change)– Key technologies (CCS, biofuels, biomass/RE,

hybrids)

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• Examples (WRI forthcoming studies):

– India: Biomass/RE power (~500 million with no electricity access)

– China: hybrid and other advanced vehicles (huge transport growth, major oil security issues)

– Brazil: biofuels (large social and economic benefits)

– S. Africa: carbon capture & storage (CCS) (lots of potential, but high costs and low development benefits)

“Sustainable Development PAMs”

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What Else Can be Done?

• Incorporate climate protection considerations into public financial flows (“greening”)– World Bank lending, Export Credit Agencies,

development assistance aid

• Build capacity for longer-term engagement– WRI-WBCSD Greenhouse Gas Protocol project

• Strengthen adaptation efforts• U.S. domestic action with “international

spillovers”– Technology development and deployment– Auto sector (trade and FDI effects)

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• A key barrier to North-South cooperation is

political; US leadership is needed• There is already a rich (and growing) menu

of options for developing country engagement

• Pushing for targets is not especially constructive

• Look for development-climate protection linkages

• Developing country engagement is a process; progressive evolution is possible over time.

Conclusion

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Thank you!

Kevin A. Baumert ([email protected])Climate, Energy, and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

engaging developing countries in climate protection sei next steps post-kyoto march 30, 2005

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