T, ?iY MODELLING AND OPTIMIZATION

OF

DELHI'S TRANSPORT SYSTEM

USING

SYSTEM DYNAMICS

By

JAIDEEP SINGH BAJAJ & RAJEEV KAKAR

A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL

ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR

THE DEGREE OF

BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY

IN

MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

NEW DELHI

DECEMBER 1984

CERTIFIC AT E

This is to certify that the work reported in this

Thesis has been done by RAJEEV KAKAR and JAIDEEP SINGH BAJAJ,

under my guidance and supervision for the partial fulfillment

of the requirements of the degree of BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY

in MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, during the Ist Semester, 1984-85,

in the department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute

of Technology, Delhi. •

Further, this work has not been submitted elsewhere

for the award of any other Degree.

Date: Prof. Preen Vrat

Department of Mechanical'

Engg.

I.I.T. DELHI, Hauz Khas,

NEVW DELHI-110029

u

A C K N 0 W L E D G E M E N T

We would like to express our Sincere Gratitude to

Prof..Prem Vrat for his invaluable guidance and supervision

at every stage of this Project.

We are also grateful to Prof. H.B. Mathur and Dr. Kishan

Pal for their help in providing us with important data on

Pollution.

Further, we wish to thank the Research Department of

the Planning Commission of India, the Regional Office of

Indian Oil Corporation, Rail Bhavan, and Delhi Statistical

Bureau(Delhi Administration, Old Secretariat) for the help

rendered by them during Data Collection.

December 1, 1984

(J.S.BMM) (R.KAKAR

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CONTENTS

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PAGE A B S T RAC T ... j. L I S T OF F I G U R E S ... ii L I S T 0 P TABLES ... iVi L I S T OF A P P E N D ICES ... vi N O M E NCL A T U R E ... viit

PART-I SYSTEM DYNAMICS : THE TECHNIQUE

CHAPTER 1 SYSTEM DYNAMICS ... 1

1.1 Introduction ... 1 1.2 Foundation of System Dynamics ... 2 1.3 Models of Systems ... 3 1.4 Principles for Formulating Dynamic

System Models .,. 5

CHAPTER 2 STRUCTURE OF A DYNAMIC SYSTEM MODEL ... 8

2.1 Basic Structure ... 8 2.2 System of Equations ... 11 23 Symbols for Flow Diagrams ... 16 2.4 Delays ... 20 2.5 Exogenous Variables ... 23 2.6 Validation of Models ... 23 2.7 Policies and Decisions ..1. 24

PART-II DELHI'S TRANSPORTATION MODEL

CHAPTER 3 BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MODEL ,.. 26

CHAPTER 4 FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL ... 28

4.1 Important Variables ... 28 4.2 Causal Feedback Loop ... 28 4.3 DYNAMO Equations ... 30 4.4 Fortran Program Description ... 32 4.5 Time Functions .... 39 4.6 Constants ,.. 52 4.7 Validation .,. 58

PAGE

CHAPTER 5 AIR POLLUTION MODEL ... 62

5.1 Important. Variables ... 62 5.2 Causal-Feedback Loop ... 62 5.3 DYNAMO Equations ... 64 5.4 Fortran Program Description ... 64 5.5 Time Functions ... 66 5.6 Constants ... 66 5.7 Validation - ... 67

PART—III

POLICY RUNS ON DELHI'S TRANSPORTATION MODEL

CHAPTER 6 SCENARIO BUILDING ... 68

6.1 Existing System ... 68 6.2 System with Pollution Feedback ... 70

6.2.1 Description 6.2.2 Results 6.2.3 Implementation Strategy

CHAPTER 7 INCREASE IN CAPITAL AVAILABLE FOR BUSES ... 75

7.1 Description ... 75 7.2 Results ... 76 7.3 Implementation Strategy ... 81

CHAPTER 8 DECENTRALIZATION OF WORK-PLACES ...83

8.1 Stopping Ring Town Commuter Traffic ... 83 8.1.1 Description 8.1.2 Results 8.1.3 Implementation Strategy

8.2 Work Places at close proximity .... 888 8.2.1 Description 8.2.2 Results 8.2.3 Implementation Strategy

CHAPTER 9 EXPANSION OF EXISTING RAIL FACILITIES -TWO SCENARIOS ... 94

9.1 Description .,. 94 9.2 Results ... 96 9.3 Implentation Strategy ,... 101

CHAPTER 10 PROHIBITED ZONES ... 104

10.1 Description ... 104 0.2 Results ... 106 0.3 Implementations Strategy ... 109

CHAPTER.11 SCOPE FOR FUTURE WORK .... 111 L I STT OF REFERENCE S ... 114

A BSTRACT

This report presents the analysis of the Transportation

structure of DELHI, using the technique of SYSTEM DYNAMICS.

This has been done through a process of Simulation and

Modelling. The aim of this study is to develop Policies

for Delhi's Transportation System, in order to limit

FUEL CONSUMPTION and AIR POLLUTION in Delhi, for the future,

and to estimate its Transportation Requirements till the

year 2000 A.D.

In order to carry out a realistic study, initially, the

model of Delhi's Transportation System has been validated

for the past, by comparing the Model values withthe actual

values. Subsequently, various Scenarios have been experimented

with, for Policy implementation, andtheir results analysed.

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No.

2.1 2.2 2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.10

2.11

2.12

4.1

4.2

5.1

DESCRIPTION PAGE

Basic Model Structure .... 8 Calculations at time K ... 11 Straight Line Approximation to a variable level ... 12

Levels ,., 16

Flow Symbols .... 17

Decision Functions (Rate Equations) ... 17

Sources and Sinks ... 18

Information Take-Off from Levels and Rates ... 18

Auxiliary Variables ... 19

Parameters (Constants) ... 19

Symbol for Exponential Delay .... 19

Third Order Exponential Delay ... 21

Causal Feedback Loop for Fuel Consumption ... 29

Map of Delhi showing Distribution of Zones ... 36

Causal Feedback Loop for Air Pollution ... 63

LIST OF TABLES_

Table No. DESCRIPTION Page

4.1 Vehicles and areas of Zones ... 56

4.2 Percentage of Vehicles in and Traffic Congestion index of various Zones ... 57

4.3 .Valida rion of Cars and Taxis ... 58

4.4 Validation of 2&3 wheelers ... 59

4.5 Validation of Buses ... 59

4.6 Validation of Trains .... 60

4.7 Validation of Diesel Consumption ... 60-61

4.8 Validation of Petrol Consumption ... 61

6.1 Projection of number of vehicles in Delhi ... 69

6.2 Petrol Consumption and Diesel Consumption

and Total Running Cost in existing system ,.. 69

6.3 Average Quantity of Pollutants present in

Delhi for existing system. ... 70

6.4 Average Quantity of Pollutants present in Delhi, with a feedback of Pollution. ... 72

6.5 Percentage Reduction in Pollution using Pollution feedback. ... 72-73

7.1 Petrol Consumption and Diesel Consumption

for 20% and 40% increase in Bus Capital. ... 77

7.2 Total Running Cost and saving in Running cost.. 77-78

7.3 Average quantity of Pollutants present in Delhi, for the given years, with 20% increase in Bus Capital. ... 78-79

7.4 Average Quantity of Pollutants in Delhi, for given years,with 40% increase in Bus Capital... 79

Table No. DESCRIPTION Page

7.5 Percentage reduction in Pollutants with 20% increase in Bus Capital. ....e 80

7.6 Percentage reduction in Pollutants with 40% increase in Bus Capital. ... 80-81

8.1 Petrol Consumption, Diesel Consumption and Total Running cost with the stopping of ring Town Commuter Traffic. ... 84

8.2 Average Quantity of Pollutants present in Delhi for given years,with the- stopping of Ring Town Commuter Traffic. ... 85

8.3 Percentage reduction of Pollutants with the stopping of Ring Town Traffic stopped. ... 86

8.4 Petrol Consumption and Diesel Consumption and Total Running Cost saving, with Work Places at close proximity. ... 90

8.5 Average Quantity of Pollutants in Delhi, for the given years, with work places in close proximity. ... 90-91

8.6 Percentage reduction in Pollutants with Work Places in close proximity. ... 91,

9.1 Petrol and Diesel Consumption for Rail Expansion Policy(Optimistic and Most Likely case). ... 96

9.2 TRC for Most Likely and Optimistic case of Rail Expansion with their savings in TRC. ... 97-98

9.3 Average Quantity of Pollutants present in Delhi for given years, for Rail Expansion Policy(Most Likely Case). ... 98

9.4 Percentage reduction in pollutants with Rail Expansion Policy( Most Likely). ... 99

9.5 Average Quantity of pollutants presents in Delhi forgiven years, for Rail Expansion Policy (Optimistic Case. ... 100

9.6 Percentage reduction in Pollutants with Rail Expansion Policy (Optimistic Case). ... 100-1

10.1 Petrol Consumption ,Diesel Consumption and Total Running Cost and Savings in TRC with Prohibited Zones. ... 106

10.2 Average Quantity of Pollutants in Delhi, for given years with Prohibited Zones. ... 107

10.3 Percentage reduction in Pollutants with Prohibited Zones. ... 108

LIST OF APPENDICES

Apps dix

A B

C D

F F

G

H

1

J K

L M

N

0 P

Q

S

S T

. NAME Page

FORTRAN PROGRAMS

Validation of Existing Fuel Consumption System 115 Existing Fuel Consumption System (upto 2000 A.D.) 119

Existing System for Air Pollution 123

System with Pollution Feedback 127

20% Bus Capital Increase--Fuel Consumption 131

206 Bus Capital Increase--Air Pollution 135

40% Bus Capital Increase--Fuel Consumption 140

40% Bus Capital Increase--Air Pollution - 144

Stopping Ring Town Commuter Traffic--Fu-el Consumption 148

Stopping Ring Town Commuter Traffic--Air Pollution 152

Work Places at Close Proximity--Fuel Consumption 156

Work Places at Close Proximity--Air Pollution 160

Rail k pansion(Most Likely)--Fu.el Consumption 164

Rail Expansion(Most Likely)--Air Pollution 168

Rail Expahsion(Optimistic)--Fuel Consumption 173

Rail E` pansion(Cp.timistic)--Air Pollution 177

Prohibited Zones -- Fuel Consumption 181

Prohibited Zones -- Air Pollution 185

DYNAMO EQUATIONS

Fuel Consumption Model 190 Air Pollution 193

-vii- N O M E N C L A T U R E

'CRB- Base Fuel Consumption Rate for Cars(Litres/Kmi EOA - Kg of NOx emitted pero 10001gLitres of Petrol. FOPB- Average Number of persons per Bps. [OPT- Average No. of Persons/Train. tNb- Actual Rate of increase of Buses. ;UD - Delay in meeting Car Requirement. 'CO - Kg of CO present in the atmosphere. 'HC - Kg of HC present in the atmosphere. 'NO - Kg of NOx present in the atmospheres 'SM - Kg of Smoke present in the atmosphere. IRQT- Cars, Taxis and 2&3 Wheelers requirement. 'C - Auto Vehicle Cost(Es./Km). 'ST - Average stay of a Tourist in Delhiv 'CRB- Base Fuel Consumption Rate for Buses. 'OB - kg of NOx emitted/1000 litres of diesel,from a Bus. UD - Delay in meeting a Bus Requirement. rSIN- Bus Index to take care of Capital constraint. DCY- Average distance covered by a Bus in a year. ►PY - Capital available per year for Buses. ►A - kg of CO emitted by a Car/1000 litres of Petrol Consumed. iB - kg of CO emitted by a Bus/1000 litres of Diesel Consumed. IMMUTER- Ring Town commuters coming to Delhi every year. ~S - kg of CO emitted by 2&3 Wheelers/1000 litres of petrol Consumed. B - Cost per Bus. .QT - Requirements for Cars and Taxis. GV - Diesel consumed by Goods Vehicles. ~0 - Rate of removal of CO from the atmosphere. ON - Total Diesel Consumption. 'OST - Diesel Cost (Rs./litre) PB -Diesel consumed by Private Buses. :C - Rate of removal of HC from the atmosphere. 0 - Rate of removal of NOx from the atmosphere. M - Rate of removal of Smoke from the atmosphere. ON - Electricity consumption by Trains. 'ONR- Electricity consumption rate of Trains (Kwh/Km) . OST- Electricity Cost (gs./Kwh). 'OA- -Number of Cars and Taxis in Delhi. OS - Number of 2&3 Wheelers in Delhi. A - Fuel consumed by Cars and Taxis. BT - Fuel consumed by DTC buses. 'S - Fuel consumed by 2&3 Wheelers. AC - Fraction of Transport Requirement met by Cars, Taxis and 2&3 Wheelers. CY - Average distance covered per year by Goods Vehicles. CR - Base Fuel Consumption of Goods Vehicles. C - Number of Goods Vehicles in Delhi. A - kg of HC emitted. from Cars/1000 litres of Petrol Consumed. B - kg of HC emitted from Buses/1000 litres of Diesel 'Consumed. S - kg of HC emitted from 2&3 Wheelers/1000 litres of Fuel Consumed. XNOT3 Maximum Number of Trains with current. track Capacity. B - Number of Buses in Delhi. T - Number of Ring Railway Trains. D - Period after which a person does not require Transportation. RT - Fraction of Cars and 2&3 Wheelers requirement met by Cars. V - Average number of persons per Car. OST- Petrol Cost (Rs./litre). '

- Delay over which Pollutants are naturally removed. OB - Number of Private Buses in Delhi. LIN- Composite Pollution Index.

PRAT - People requiring motorized Transport. RAINC- Rate of increase of Cars. RAINS- Rate of increase of 2&3 Wheelers. RBINC- Rate of increase of Buses. RTINC- Rate of increase of Trains, RATIO- Fraction of Transit Transport(Buses and Trmns)met by Buses. RCAS - Running Cost of Cars and 2&3 Wheelers. RCBPG- Running Cost of Buses,Goods Vehicles and Private Buses. RINCOP-Rate of increase of Old Pedplk(over 70) in Delhi. RRB - Rate of renewal of Old Buses. RRBD - Delay before a Bus is Renewed. SAV - Average Capacity in 2&3 Wheelers. SFCRB- Base Fuel Consumption Rate for 2&3 Wheelers(Litres/Km). SMA - kg of Smoke emitted from Cars/1000 litres of petrol Consumed. SMB - kg of Smoke emitted from Buses/1000 litres of Diesel Consumed. SMS --kg of Smoke emitted from 2&3 Wheelers/1000 litres of Fuel Consumec SNOS - kg of NOx emitted from 2&3 Wheelers/1000 litres of fuel Consumed. SRQT - 2&3 Wheeler requirement, SSUD - Delay in meeting Requirement for 2&3 Wheelers. SVDCY- Average distance covered per Year by 2&3 Wheelers. TCI - Traffic Congestion INDEX. TCIA - Average Craffic Congestion for Cars. TCIB - Average Traffic Congestion for Buses. TCIS - Average Traffic Congestion Index for 2&3 Wheelers. TCO - Total kg of CO emitted in a Year. THC - Total kg of HC emitted in a Year. TNO - Total kg of NOx emitted in a Year. TOURISTS- Tourists visiting Delhi in a Year. TPD - Train Trips per Days. TTRQT- Total persons requiring Transport. TRC - Total Running Cost per Year. TRCT - Train Running Cost per Year. TRRQT- Transit Transport requirement (Buses and Trains). TRRQTB.-Bus Requirement. TRRQTT- Train Requirement. TSM - Total kg of Smoke emitted in a Year. TSUD - Delay in meeting Train Requirement. TVDCY - Average distance covered per year by a Train. YEAR - Signifies the Year under Consideration. ZENOA - Number of Cars and Taxis in Zone. ZENOS - Number of 2&3 Wheelers in a Zone. ZNOB - Number of Buses in a Zone.