Futures 50 (2013) 56–65

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Engineering Uncertainty: The role of uncertainty in the design

of complex technological and business systems

Brian David Johnson *

The Intel Corporation, United States

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:

Available online 19 April 2013

Keywords:

Science Fiction Prototypes

Design fictions

Uncertainty

Complex systems

Artificial intelligence

Robotics

Experience design

Future business models

A B S T R A C T

Engineering Uncertainty is a Science Fiction Prototype that explores the inevitability of

uncertainty in increasingly complex computational and business systems. We explore the

human, legal, cultural affects and business affects of embracing uncertainty as an

engineering and business practice. This new approach to innovation and design could have

radical effects on current business theory and practices.

� 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

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‘‘Complexity is not only quantities of unit and interactions that defy our possibilities of calculation; it also is made upof uncertainty, indetermination and random phenomena.’’ Morin [1]

The Science Fiction (SF) Prototype that follows this introduction, Engineering Uncertainty, explores the human, legal,cultural affects and business affects of embracing uncertainty as an engineering and business practice. This research comesfrom research I have been doing as Intel’s futurist. It pulls from the work of Canadian mathematician William Byers (The Blind

Spot), American computer scientist Peter Biddle (The Darknet and the Future Content Distribution) and French sociologistEdgar Morin (On Complexity). All of this work explores the inevitability of uncertainty in increasingly complex systems. Theyobserve that to lock down a closed system is to stamp that system with an expatriation date. By embracing uncertainly wecan increase the usefulness and longevity of systems.

The SF Prototype that follows explores what might arise out of uncertainty and the affects this system could have.Specifically it sets up the complex legal and contractual issues that can occur when uncertainty creates new business modelsand work products.

‘‘The dream of technology is the dream of control. . .control is an illusion; absolute control, even if it were possible,would be disaster.’’ Byers [2]

responding author. Tel.: +1 5034751891.

ail address: brian.david.johnson@intel.com.

287/$ – see front matter � 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

x.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.011

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–65 57

2. Science Fiction Prototype: Engineering Uncertainty

‘‘My name is Shanwei and I think I can make you a lot of money,’’ the compact muscular man said to Dr. Egerton. His tonewas frank and matter of fact.

‘‘I’m sorry,’’ replied Egerton. ‘‘I’m not sure I. . .’’‘‘I’m sure you heard me,’’ smiled Shanwei. It was a good and confident smile. ‘‘I know all about you. I’ve done my

homework and I think we can work together. I need a scientist. . .’’‘‘How did you get in here?’’ Egerton asked. He had just finished a lecture. The last of the students were leaving the theater.‘‘I bribed the guard,’’ Shanwei smiled his easy smile again. ‘‘Look I’m not trying to cause you any trouble. I just have this job

and as far as I can tell you are my guy. If you can give me fifteen minutes we’ll both know.’’Edgerton methodically closed his lecture notes. The mysterious appearance of the Shanwei hinted to Egerton of a kind of

danger and mystery that he’d been looking for.***

‘‘There’s a robot that’s gone missing and I think you can help me find it,’’ Shanwei started.The unlikely pair sat in the student cafe just off campus. It was small and plain and loud. The college campus was designed

in a style art historians called Brutalism. It was a mix of raw concrete slabs and exposed metal HVAC duct work.‘‘I don’t understand, but how do you think I can help you find this robot?’’ Egerton took a sip of coffee and listened.Shanwei sighed and paused. His impatience seemed like it could explode into rage but that he was skilled at keeping it in

check. ‘‘For years now you’ve been teaching and writing about irrational robots. . .’’

‘‘They are not just irrational robots. . .They are. . .’’

‘‘Look everyone calls them irrational robots. I’ve read your papers. I understand what you’re talking about. I get it. Ithink it’s an interesting idea. I think I found one. . .’’

‘‘What?’’ Egerton couldn’t help but break in.‘‘I think I found one.’’ Shanwei took a breath and started. Now he seemed to be enjoying himself. ‘‘I got a call from a repo

man. His bot’s gone missing.’’‘‘A repo man?’’ Egerton was confused.‘‘Yeah. The name of the business is SlimJim. You know like the metal strip we used to use to open old cars when people

locked their keys inside.’’ Shanwei made the motioned of jimmying open a car.

‘‘Do they even use those anymore?’’

‘‘No. So I thought maybe the guy’s name was Jim and he was skinny, but there’s nothing slim about this guy. His namesnot even Jim, it’s Stan. Jim’s the name of the robot that’s gone missing. The fat guy from SlimJim called me to find hisrobot.’’

‘‘And why do you think I can help?’’ Egerton asked, not sure what to think of what was happening.‘‘I think you can help me find the bot because I think it’s gone irrational.’’‘‘Irrational? What do you mean irrational?’’‘‘You know what I mean,’’ Shanwei sighed. ‘‘It went crazy just like you’ve always said the robots would.’’

***‘‘I don’t really want the stupid thing back. It’s a piece of junk. Junk I tell ya.’’ Stan slapped his fat hand on the table and

shook his jowls. He was a caricature of obesity, small eyes, and tiny fingers. His skin was in a constant struggle to sweat outenough water so that he wouldn’t explode. He was a giant water balloon on the verge of popping.

‘‘Then why do you want him back?’’ Egerton asked, still not a hundred percent sure of his role.‘‘Well, I wanted him back in the beginning. Sure you know. Why not? I own him. I did spend a little money on him. So,

yeah sure, why not right? I should go get him or at least try to go get him.’’ Fat Stan paused as if he expected a response.Egerton and Shanwei sat quiet and waited it out.‘‘We know what happened to the shuttle,’’ Fat Stan continued. ‘‘It’s wrecked. The kids of this Chinese billionaire rented the

shuttle from this budget company. He and his friends took it to the shore, just north of New York City and wrecked it. Bangedit up real bad and left it. No one knows where they went but I don’t care about that. The rental company just hired me to bringback the wreck. So I sent my guy.’’

‘‘So all the bot needed to do was bring the wreck back to you?’’ Shanwei asked.‘‘Yeah, seems simple right?’’ Fat Stan looked flabbergasted. ‘‘So I send the bot and he doesn’t come back. So what

am I supposed to do? Go out there myself? No way you’re getting me out in that crappy part of the States. So I get methis yahoo,’’ Fat Stan pointed at the brand new bot standing at the back of the office. ‘‘He’s new, he’s improved and hecomes with a guarantee. That’s how those yahoos over at UNATS got me to lease him.’’ He pulled up the advertisementon his screen. ‘‘See,’’ he pointed. ‘‘Property recovery in 48 hours guaranteed. Ha!’’ he slapped the desk again. ‘‘I’ll showthem.’’

Egerton puzzled over the shiny new bot. It was obvious he had been out in some swamp or coast because he had bits ofseaweed harmlessly stuck in his joints. It bothered Egerton that the fat man hadn’t bothered to clean it out.

‘‘What’s the deal with the insurance agency?’’ Shanwei asked.

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–6558

‘‘The deal is that they never figured they’d have to pay up.’’

‘‘I get that,’’ Shanwei hid his contempt. ‘‘What’s the contract? What do you want us to do?’’‘‘I told you already. I want you to do what that new fangled robot couldn’t do. I want you to find Jim. I really don’t care

about the money now. He’s not worth that much. I just want to know what happened to him.’’ He looked directly at Shanwei.‘‘Sullivan said you were the guy who could do it.’’

Before Shanwei could respond Egerton asked, ‘‘You’re robot is named Jim?’’‘‘Yeah, Jim,’’ Fat Stan smiled. ‘‘You know like SlimJim. . .he’s the slim jim. He get’s the shuttles back. I don’t know maybe it’s

a little stupid. You know we used to use these things called slim jims to open cars. You have to get that to get the joke. . .’’‘‘We get it,’’ Shanwei said flatly.‘‘Is there anything else you can tell us? Did Jim send you anything?’’ Egerton asked.‘‘Nah, that’s it. He just went out there and didn’t come back. Like I said. Then I got this hunk of junk from UNATS,’’ Fat Stan

motioned to the bot. ‘‘Oh, wait there is something. I didn’t tell the UNATS people. I didn’t think it was important. I thought itproved Jim was going haywire. . . you know. . .’’

‘‘What did he send you?’’ Egerton asked.Fat Stan dug through his desk and pulled out a stack of paper reports. ‘‘That crazy bot sent me these.’’ He handed them

over.‘‘What are they?’’ Shanwei asked.‘‘There are supposed to be repossession reports, but they’re all crazy. . .they make no sense. But also they’re paper reports.

Who sends paper reports?’’Egerton took the papers and started going through them.‘‘Is there anything else?’’ Shanwei asked. ‘‘We should get going. There are some pretty bad storms coming in.’’

***

2.1. Repossession field report one

If you really want to hear about it, the first thing you’ll probably want to know is where I was born, and what my lousychildhood was like, and how my parents were occupied and all before they had me, and all that David Copperfield kind ofcrap, but I don’t feel like going into it, if you want to know the truth. In the first place, that stuff bores me, and in the secondplace, my parents would have about two hemorrhages apiece if I told anything pretty personal about them. They’re quitetouchy about anything like that, especially my father. They’re nice and all – I’m not saying that – but they’re also touchy ashell. Besides, I’m not going to tell you my whole goddam autobiography or anything

STATUS: Target not recovered. Searching. Estimated time to recovery 48 hrs.

2.2. Repossession field report two

By the time they had lived seven years in the little house on Greentree Avenue in Westport Connecticut, they bothdetested it. There were many reasons, none of them logical, but all of them compelling. For one thing, the house had a kind ofevil genius for displaying proof of their weaknesses and wiping out all traces of their strengths. The ragged lawn and weed-filled garden proclaimed to passers-by and the neighbors that Thomas R. Rath and his family disliked ‘‘working around theplace’’ and couldn’t afford to pay someone else to do it.

STATUS: Shuttle not located. Estimated time to repossession 48 hours

2.3. Repossession field report three

In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I’ve been turning over in my mind eversince.

‘‘Whenever you feel like criticizing any one,’’ he told me, ‘‘just remember that all people in this world haven’t had theadvantages that you’ve had.’’

He didn’t say any more, but we’ve always been unusually communicative in a reserved way, and I understood that hemeant a great deal more than that.

STATUS: Shuttle not located. Estimated time to repossession 25 hours

2.4. Repossession field report: revised four

He lights her cigarettes and by the way she looks at him you can tell that they are in love.STATUS: Shuttle repossessed. Returning to garage.

***‘‘This is all I get,’’ Egerton looked up from the reports. ‘‘Jim doesn’t even have a spec,’’ Egerton said slowly searching

through reports. ‘‘He has no documentation at all.’’ He spoke about the robot as if it were a child that had not been properlycared for or a pet that had been neglected.

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–65 59

‘‘I’m guessing the repossession reports are no help?’’ Shanwei wasn’t paying attention. He was staring into a screen,searching.

‘‘They really don’t make any sense.’’ Egerton folded the paper and put it in his pocket.‘‘I found some things that might be useful,’’ Shanwei handed over his screen to Egerton. ‘‘Jim’s AI was all open source,

freeware and whatever else you want to call it. But you know all about that.’’Egerton nodded. It was the Egerton’s AI project that had led Shanwei to him. For years Egerton had been developing a

massive and unregulated AI. It was somewhat controversial to some, ridiculously naive to others and even possibly illegal toa select few.

The silent and still UNATS bot sat across from Shanwei and Egerton. In contrast to Jim’s AI, it was the latest model with astring of patents and lawsuits to prove it. No other AI or robot had been so heavily scrutinized. UNATS had locked down everypiece of the robots hardware and software before it was released. Up until the day it was released no one at UNATS ever evenspoke of the new robot publically.

Egerton glanced up from the screen, taking a moment from the chaos of Jim’s upbringing to marvel and shudder at thecool efficiency of the UNATS bot.

‘‘You don’t even have a name,’’ Egerton said to the bot.‘‘What?’’‘‘Nothing,’’ Egerton pointed at the screen and said, ‘‘This is really good stuff. There’s an amazing amount of information

here. I would have never found this. Really. Really it’s quite good.’’‘‘Thanks,’’ Shanwei smiled, pleased that his new partner recognized his talents. The two had not been working together

long but they had a natural rhythm and respect.There was no real way to understand Jim’s AI. It had been open and online for so long that the complexity of it was

staggering. As far as Egerton could tell from Shanwei’s research, Jim’s AI had been passed around from university to researchinstitute to government security contractor to pre-teen hack clubs for years. Jim’s body of knowledge and algorithms were sodense and so poorly designed that they were incomprehensible. They only thing that Fat Stan had cared about was that Jim’sAI was free.

‘‘When we get there what do we do?’’ Egerton asked. He was a bit worried about the on the ground work Shanwei wantedhim to do. He wasn’t exactly the man of action that Shanwei appeared to be.

‘‘Don’t worry about it,’’ Shanwei picked up on Egerton’s worries. ‘‘We get there, take a look and we’ll figure it out. Thesethings usually present themselves. . .you just have to keep yourself open to all the possibilities.’’ Shanwei checked the batterycharge on a set of small aquatic robots he’d brought with him. Their skin caught the light and threw a star pattern on the hullof the shuttle.

The rented shuttle started to buck and fussed its way down through a patch of nasty storm clouds. Breaking through thethick clouds Egerton could just see land. The past few storm seasons had not been kind to Long Island, New York. The stormsurges had made the once densely populated areas nearly uninhabitable.

‘‘This is where SlimJim last logged the shuttle.’’

All of the fuss had started over a rented shuttle that had gone missing. Slimjim was a recovery agency hired by the rentalcompanies as a last resort to track down missing property.

The Chinese billionaire’s kid and their friends had gone missing on Sunday. It was now Friday. The UNATS bot had failedon its search by Tuesday. Fat Stan had logged his claim that night. Shanwei had also gotten the call that night and approachedEgerton on Wednesday. Their research and the meeting with the Fat Stan had happened throughout Thursday. Friday foundthe pair hurdling toward America’s devastated Atlantic coastline.

‘‘How are you with rough landings?’’ Shanwei asked with a smile.‘‘I’m not sure,’’ Egerton answered honestly.

‘‘Well, and we’re gonna see.’’

The shuttle slammed into the lower storms and was played with like a plastic toy. The only thing the shuttle had going forit was speed and it put on as much as it could, blasting toward the flooded and ravaged shores of Great Neck, New York.

***‘‘This Eco-Boat should go for four days,’’ the Swamp Rat said. ‘‘As long as you don’t go all hell bent and open throttle all the

time.’’ The Swamp Rat was raw and skinny and walked with a pronounced limp. His left leg had been mangled recently andthe bandages were still damp with blood. ‘‘Get it in the sun if there is any sun so the solar can kick in and that’ll give you alittle more go juice.’’

‘‘I think we’ll be alright,’’ Shanwei replied confidently.‘‘Yeah well more than a few confident sons-a-guns have had to paddle their way back here because they killed the engine

or ran out of juice. ‘Cause if you lose it out there’,’’ he pointed to the storm surges. ‘‘There ain’t nothing I or anyone else can dofor you.’’

‘‘I get that,’’ Shanwei replied.‘‘Your robot don’t do much does he?’’ the Swamp Rat motioned to the UNATS bot.Egerton smiled and replied. ‘‘He’s not supposed to. He’s here to watch. He’s the money guy. We’re doing all the work.’’ The

UNATS bot easily maneuvered its way into the boat and sat down without comment or emotion.

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–6560

‘‘What the hell kind of robot is that? Seems like a waste of metal to me,’’ the Swamp Rat scoffed and limped up the ricketyplastic and metal dock.

‘‘He isn’t any good at all!’’ Shanwei called after him, chuckling ‘‘But we need him to get paid!’’‘‘Yeah yeah yeah.’’ the Swamp Rat waved as he disappeared into his FEMA trailer.‘‘Where did you find him?’’ Egerton asked, still watching the Swamp Rat’s trailer.‘‘Oh Dr. Egerton. . .I know a lot of interesting people.’’

***Night came and with it more rain. The major storms had passed but the waters of the sound were still high, flooding most

of the Great Neck Peninsula.‘‘The GPS says the shuttle is around here somewhere,’’ Shanwei looked over the edge of the boat into the darkness. ‘‘Do

you think we can get silent boy here to make a dive?’’ Shanwei motioned to the UNTAS bot. It made no move.‘‘I think it’s just recording,’’ Egerton replied, looking over the edge of the boat.‘‘Well, I brought something to try,’’ Shanwei pulled two thin submersible bots from his bag. ‘‘Let’s light it up!’’ Shanwei

released the fish.The light from the fish was intense. Neither Shanwei nor Egerton could look directly into the water. For a few seconds it

shone with the intensity of a small sun. But as the tiny fish submersed themselves, the intensity lessened and the pair couldmarvel at the underwater world.

The depths of Long Island Sound were a mess. The floor of the sound was littered with uprooted trees, abandoned FEMAtrailers and odd smattering of random junk. The storms that had slammed into the peninsula year after year had gatheredpiles of household items and unintelligible artifacts of nature. It was a puzzle.

‘‘Is that it?’’ Shanwei asked as the fish dove deeper.

‘‘What is it? I think I can actually see a toilet.’’

‘‘No over to the left,’’ Shanwei pointed into the depths. ‘‘Next to the trailer with Bad Boy spray painted on the side.’’Shanwei pointed with a laser pointer. The red dot quivered on the crashed shuttle.

‘‘Wow, it’s really messed up. Those kids must have really wrecked,’’ Egerton said. ‘‘Oh god!’’ Egerton threw himself awayfrom the side of boat.

‘‘What?’’

With fierce speed and frightening accuracy the UNATS bot had moved to the edge of the boat and was documenting thelocation of the wrecked shuttle.

‘‘Who knew it could move that fast?’’ Egerton marveled at the large bot as it scanned and recorded the bottom of thesound.

‘‘It’s about time it actually did something,’’ Shanwei dismissed. ‘‘Didn’t they already record this the first time they senthim here?’’

‘‘Who knows but you have to admit it’s pretty amazing technology,’’ Egerton watched the UNATS bot do its work.‘‘I really don’t care,’’ Shanwei replied. ‘‘We aren’t here to find the shuttle. We’re here to find the robot. I think we need

to. . .’’‘‘The robot’s name is Jim,’’ Egerton added.‘‘I know the robots name is Jim,’’ Shanwei grinned at Egerton. ‘‘Now. . .where the hell is he?’’The UNATS bot returned to its seat and went idle once again. Shanwei and Egerton scanned the darkness of the sound. The

dense cloud cover let no light through, no moon or the stars, making the landscape a flat black.‘‘It can’t be that hard,’’ Shanwei looked down at the map on his screen. ‘‘There’s nothing around here. Why would he leave

the shuttle? Where would he go? I guess we are assuming that he stayed in the area. Maybe. . .’’‘‘What’s that?’’ Egerton pointed to the horizon.

‘‘Looks like a light.’’

In the distance a murky light blinked on and off.‘‘I thought you said there was nothing around here.’’ Egerton gave his new partner a hard time.‘‘The storm surges made it impossible to live here. No insurance agency in their right mind would cover a house here. So

everyone cleared out.’’ As Shanwei spoke he didn’t look up from his screen.‘‘Your fish are back.’’ Egerton said casually.‘‘What? Huh?’’ Shanwei looked up from the screen then noticed his little robots had returned. ‘‘Oh,’’ he scooped them out

of the water and placed them back in the bag. Their intense light had reduced to a dim throb. ‘‘Let’s go see what we can see,’’Shanwei said as he started the boat.

***‘‘Why would anyone need a cell phone tower out in the middle of nowhere?’’ Egerton asked as they bobbed next to the

thin metal structure.‘‘This place used to be crawling with people,’’ Shanwei replied. ‘‘Rich people who liked to use their phones.’’‘‘Where’s it getting the power from?’’ Egerton puzzled at the light.

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–65 61

‘‘I would think. . .’’ Shanwei paused and looked at the darkness and the water that surrounded them. ‘‘You know. . .I don’tknow.’’

‘‘It’s just weird right?’’ Egerton kept looking at the dim light perched on top of the tower as is staring at it would give himthe answer.

Just then Fat Stan called.‘‘Hello Stan,’’ Shanwei said to the screen.‘‘Did you find my robot? Did you find Jim?’’ It looked like he was just finishing a sandwich.‘‘We just got here,’’ Shanwei kept his temper in check.‘‘Well they caught the billionaire’s kid. They stopped over in London on their way to who knows where the hell they were

going. They were in the Hilton at Paddington station with enough dextroampedamines to keep the whole city awake for aweek.’’ Fat Stan chucked.

‘‘That’s great news but why. . .’’

‘‘I got to talk to one of the kids, the youngest one and he said he didn’t see Jim. . .’’

‘‘Well why would he,’’ Shanwei snapped back. ‘‘They would have been long gone before they left for London.’’‘‘I know,’’ Fat Stan took a bite of pickle and talked while he chewed. ‘‘But how did they get to London? Did they sprout

wings and fly? Did they swim the whole way? If they ditched my shuttle after they wrecked it then how did they keeprocking on their little joy ride?’’ Fat Stan paused, took another bite of pickle and stared at Shanwei.

‘‘Ok how?’’ Shanwei gave in. ‘‘How did they get there?’’‘‘Good thing I asked them huh? Good think I called you huh?’’ Fat Stan gloated.

‘‘How did they get there Stan!’’

‘‘They stole someone else’s shuttle. The kid said that there was some kind of vacation home out there. He said there was noone there or at least they didn’t see anyone. They found a shuttle right next to the house so they took it. Those kids are insane.They must have been levitating over the water they were so high on speed.’’

‘‘What do you mean they stole a shuttle,’’ Shanwei scoffed. ‘‘There’s nothing around here for miles.’’‘‘What you want me to do?’’ Fat Stan finished his pickle. ‘‘That’s what the brat said and for all I know. . .’’‘‘I think I see something over there,’’ Egerton interrupted.

***They approached the house slowly. The boat’s trolling motor was nearly silent and to Egerton it appeared as if they were

hovering ten feet above the water. It was a disorienting sensation that wasn’t helped by the appearance of the house.‘‘When you were talking to Stan I saw the lights come on,’’ Egerton whispered. ‘‘How would you even get a house out

here?’’‘‘It’s one of those prefab things,’’ Shanwei slowed the boat. ‘‘People were crazy about them a few years back. They’re pretty

indestructible. People liked to use them on the coasts because when the storm surges came the houses could float.’’The entire structure glowed. The plastic and carbon fiber outer softened the interior light. The little vacation house looked

like a pale lantern bobbing on the dark waters of the Sound.‘‘I bet one of those storm chasers left it behind,’’ Shanwei broke the silence.‘‘It’s kind of pretty,’’ Egerton said to himself.The boat silently slid up next to the house. Inside they could see a man and a woman watching TV together. The woman

was wrapped up in a wool blanket.‘‘This is really weird right,’’ Shanwei whispered. ‘‘Why the hell are two people having movie night in the middle of

nowhere?’’‘‘Where are they getting the power from?’’ Egerton added.‘‘What the. . .’’ Shanwei jumped when the UNATS bot leapt from the boat and dove into the water. ‘‘He’s going to. . .oh

hell.’’‘‘What’s happening?’’ Egerton searched around the boat.The couple inside the glowing house heard the noise from the robot. The man stood up and looked out into the darkness.Shanwei grabbed a spot light and searched for the UNATS robot. ‘‘Well looky there,’’ he said.‘‘Is that Jim?’’ Egerton asked.The UNATS bot was rocketing through the water toward another robot. The bot was floating in the water fifty yards away

from the house.‘‘It looks like Jim,’’ Shanwei answered.The floating robot didn’t move. It didn’t seem to notice the UNATS bot. It just bobbed in the water, watching the little

house.‘‘Better get Stan and tell him we found his robot,’’ Shanwei said calmly. ‘‘We’re going to have a lot of explaining to do to

these poor people. That stupid big bot probably scared the hell of out them.’’***

‘‘So you didn’t even notice your vehicle was gone?’’ Shanwei was polite as possible as he stood on the narrow porch of theglowing house. The name who came to the door introduced himself as Henry.

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–6562

‘‘Sorry I can’t be much more help,’’ Henry answered. ‘‘My wife is not feeling well and we haven’t left the cabin in while. Iguess we just didn’t notice.’’

‘‘Well if you want it back your shuttle’s in London,’’ Shanwei said. ‘‘A bunch of speed freaks took it when they smashed upthe one they had rented. The police will probably want to talk to you. . .and the insurance company.’’

‘‘Ok,’’ Henry nodded. He seemed to in a haze. He was clearly uncomfortable and wanted Shanwei to go away. ‘‘We’ll behere,’’ he let out a nervous laugh. ‘‘We can’t really go anywhere I guess. . .’’

‘‘Have you ever seen that robot?’’ Shanwei pointed to Jim. The UNATS bot was loading Jim back into the boat. Jim seemedto have malfunctioned in a strange way. He still had power and his limbs were still pliable. They hadn’t locked up like hismodel usually did when they crash. But he wasn’t responding to anything. ‘‘The smaller robot,’’ Shanwei pointed out. ‘‘Notthe big one and not my partner there, he’s human.’’

‘‘No, sorry, I’ve never seen it before.’’

‘‘Really,’’ Shanwei wasn’t sure if Henry was telling the truth. ‘‘As far as we can tell that bot has been floating outside yourhouse for days.’’

‘‘Sorry,’’ Henry unconsciously glanced over his shoulder and back into the house. ‘‘Sorry we haven’t seen anything. Like Isaid my wife isn’t well and. . .’’

Shanwei stopped Henry. He took pity on him and started to leave. Shanwei moved back into the boat then stopped.‘‘Henry, I have to ask you. Why are you all the way out here? I know it’s none of my business but we were just talking andthere’s really. . .’’

‘‘It’s very private,’’ Henry answered, flashing a fluttering grin. ‘‘It’s very private.’’ He closed the door.

***‘‘Did you get anything?’’ Shanwei asked bracing himself into the seat. The shuttle ride back to Fat Stan’s was worse than

the trip out. The storms were getting worse and the entire cabin shook and jumped in the turbulence.‘‘Nothing yet,’’ Egerton answered. He was strapped in next to Jim. Throughout the entire trip Egerton had been trying to

tap into Jim, to figure out what was going on. He had no luck. Everything he tried hadn’t worked. He kept pinging Jim, are u

there? But got nothing back.‘‘Forget about it,’’ Shanwei yelled as he drove the boat faster. ‘‘We’re almost back! You’ll be able to do more when we get

there!’’Egerton didn’t listen. After he had exhausted all the normal protocols he started looking for a port of any kind. He thought

maybe he could hardwire into the robot and wake him up.Just as Egerton was leaning in to see if there was something at the base of the neck, Jim turned his head and looked directly

at Egerton.‘‘I finished it,’’ Jim said.

***‘‘So my robot has just written the great American novel?’’ Fat Stan looked at Egerton as if he was an idiot.

‘‘Not exactly. . .’’

‘‘Then what? You’re going to need to explain this a little more to me because right now you sound crazy and I don’t payfor crazy.’’

‘‘Just listen to him Stan,’’ Shanwei broke in. He was sitting at the back of the room with his legs over the arm of the chair.‘‘You’re going to have to pay us either way. We found your robot. You owe us and the insurance agency owes us. We did ourjob. But what Simon here found out is pretty incredible. You’re robot is pretty special.’’

‘‘Okay Dr. Egerton,’’ Fat Stan settled in. ‘‘So tell me. . .tell me how my Jim is now somehow F. Scott Fitzgerald.’’‘‘Jim is a complex system,’’ Egerton started. ‘‘Over the years his AI has been built and hacked and programmed by millions

of people. . .’’‘‘I know! That’s why he was so cheap,’’ Fat Stan chuckled.‘‘But that’s just it,’’ Egerton continued. ‘‘You’ve never looked at Jim’s code. . .at his AI. It’s really complex and most of it

doesn’t even live on his local system. It’s distributed all over the place. Right now, I bet he’s pinging servers and data centersall over the world.’’

‘‘So what?’’ Fat Stan started to chew on his pen. ‘‘So that makes him J.D. Salinger?’’‘‘No, it’s the complexity,’’ Egerton spoke slowly. ‘‘His code is so open that we’ll never be able to understand all of it. There’s

a level of uncertainly that you just have to accept when you are dealing with systems that are that complex. You can’t knowor predict everything.’’

‘‘So I’m just supposed to accept that he’s gone nuts?’’‘‘Stan hush,’’ Shanwei cautioned.‘‘No, it’s actually really incredible. Somewhere along the way someone got it into Jim’s AI that literature was important for

him to understand complex environments and interacting with humans. But not just reading it, writing it as well. That’s whyhe kept sending you these reports.’’ Egerton held up the pages. ‘‘Each of these is taken from a great work of Americanliterature. The Great Gatsby, The Catcher in the Rye and Man in the Grey Flannel Suit. But the last one,’’ Egerton paused andsmiled. ‘‘The last one is Jim’s. He wrote it. That’s what he was doing out there in the sound. He was writing a book.’’

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–65 63

‘‘That’s just great!’’ Fat Stan slammed his hand down on the table. ‘‘So my repo bot now thinks he’s an author. Great!Great! What the hell am I going to do with a robot that writes books?’’

‘‘Plenty,’’ Shanwei stood and walked over to Fat Stan. He handed him his screen. ‘‘Jim’s book He Lights Her Cigarettes,well. . .it’s a best-seller.’’

***‘‘You know I find of feel sorry for Fat Stan,’’ Shanwei said taking a sip of Cognac.‘‘Really? Why?’’ Egerton squeezed a lime into his gin and tonic. The pair sat in Egerton’s cramp apartment in the ring of

stations around Earth.

‘‘All the poor guy wants is a cheap bot to go get shuttles when people steal them or ditch them.’’

‘‘It’s a living I guess,’’ Egerton took a drink.

‘‘Yeah, but now he’s been in this legal fight for like three months. He thinks he owns Jim’s book because he owned Jim.The poor guy is having to deal with lawyers and legal concepts he’d never dreamed of.’’

‘‘Isn’t that because he’s greedy?’’

‘‘Yeah he’s greedy but I still feel sorry for him. He’s so greedy that he’ll never give up and the whole thing just confusesthe hell out of him.’’

‘‘It’s an interesting court case,’’ Egerton replied. ‘‘I’ve been following it for all three months since we left him and Jim.’’‘‘What do you think will happen?’’ Shanwei pondered his cognac.‘‘Hard to tell,’’ Egerton answered thoughtfully. ‘‘It’s such an odd case that no one knows what to do with it. I think it’s

beautiful but business and the courts will have no idea what to do with it. And the engineers,’’ Egerton smiled. ‘‘They’refreaking out. No one has ever had to deal with this much uncertainty in complex systems.’’

‘‘That is interesting,’’ Shanwei replied distantly and knocked back the rest of his drink. ‘‘Well, listen. If you’re interested Ithink I have another job for us.’’

‘‘What’s that?’’

‘‘There’s a bunch of robots out at the mine of Ceres 1. It’s a place called the Piazzi mine.’’

‘‘I’ve never heard of it,’’ Egerton was interested.‘‘Yeah well, it sounds like all the robots there have gone insane. It sounds like all this uncertainty and irrationality you’ve

been talking about is spreading.’’Egerton smiled and replied, ‘‘When do we leave?’’Brian David JohnsonTel Aviv, Israel

3. Afterward

3.1. Embracing the unanswerable question

I’m a futurist that refuses to predict the future. The future is built everyday by the actions of people. We all build thefuture. But predicting the future is useless. Attempting to predict the future does not value the complexity of actuallybuilding and preparing for the future. If someone presents to you a prediction for the future, they are usually trying to sell yousomething. Beware.

The futurecasting work that I do uses a process to envision the future based upon social science, technical research, dataand constant interviews and discussion with people all over the world. The goal of futurecasting is to provide an actionablevision that we can then go and build. We are driven by the idea that, when it comes to the future, we don’t want to be right wewant to get it right. Meaning that getting a prediction right is useless. What we value is getting it right, building a future thatmakes the lives of people better.

Engaging in this type of work usually leads to a specific question, ‘‘Have you accounted for the things you do not know?’’ Ilove this question. It is a question that you can’t answer. It’s a logic loop. It cannot be answered but it can be dealt with. Theproblem that needs to be dealt with is uncertainty.

People hate uncertainty. It nags at them, chews at their confidence and often paralyzes their development efforts. Butuncertainty cannot be avoided. On the contrary, uncertainty should be embraced.

The most recent example of the great unknowable came from Nassim Nicholas Taleb the Lebanese American essayist andscholar. Taleb’s 2007 book The Black Swan was a raging international best seller and is considered by many to be one of themost influential book’s of the past 50 years. Taleb’s characterization of a Black Swan even haunts people’s imaginations andslices at their logic. Taleb describes a Black Swan event by three simple characteristics. ‘‘The First is an outlier, as it liesoutside the realm of regular expectation, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, itcarries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrenceafter the fact, making it explainable and predictable.’’[3]

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–6564

A Black Swan event, like a catastrophe cannot be predicted. By its very definition these events cannot be known. At thesame time we also know for sure that these events will happen. This hits at the core of uncertainty, especially in complexsystems. Certainly the Earth (natural catastrophes) and the global markets (business catastrophes) are massively complexsystems and predicting any black swan event is useless.

In his writing Taleb takes this one step further and says that not only can a black swan event not be predicted but after theevent humans will inevitably think that the event could have been predicted. People have a difficult time acceptinguncertainty and will use all of their powers of logic to explain it away. But studies have shown that embracing uncertainlyincreases the ability to forecast future events.

In 1985 Philip Tetlock began a 20-year study with 284 forecasting experts. The participant’s expertise spreadacross multiple disciplines including government officials, professors, journalists, Marxists and marketing executives.Tetlock asked them to make predictions about future events and tracked their accuracy over the two decades. Hisfinding about the accuracy of the participant’s predictions was illuminating, especially when it came to embracinguncertainty.

In his 2010 book Future Babble Canadian journalist Dan Gardner described the results. The group that was statisticallybetter at envisioning the future had a very specific approach. They ‘‘. . . drew information and ideas from multiple sources andsought to synthesize it. They were self-critical, always questioning whether what they believed to be true really was. Andwhen they were shown that they had made mistakes, they didn’t try to minimize, hedge, or evade. They simplyacknowledged they were wrong and adjusted their thinking accordingly. Most of all, these experts were comfortable see theworld as complex and uncertain – so comfortable that they tended to doubt the ability of anyone to predict the future. Thatresulted in a paradox: The experts who were more accurate than others tended to be much less confident that they wereright’’ [4].

Embracing uncertainty is a growing theme in the design of complex systems. The work of Byers, Biddle and Morin cited inthe introduction highlight current thinking. The SF prototype Engineering Uncertainty explores the human, legal and businessimpact of uncertainty in a complex system.

3.2. Jim: a truly complex system

Jim, the robot described in the SF Prototype embodies a realistic complex system. The foundations behind Jim’s softwareand knowledge architecture are founded on the research and writings of American cognitive scientist Marvin Minsky. Usingan engineer’s approach to cognition and complexity he breaks down these systems to essential parts or ‘‘agents’’. Theseagents allow the complex system to operate in complex and changing environments. In his 2006 book The Emotion Machine

Minsky explained the benefit of architecting a complex system in this way. ‘‘If a program works in only one way, then it getsstuck when that method fails. But a program that has several ways to proceed could then switch to some other approach, orsearch for a suitable substitute’’ [5].

By architecting Jim in this way it increases the probability or even certainty of the ‘‘uncertainty, indetermination andrandom phenomena’’ that Morin explores in his work. Because Jim was created online and open sourced the complexity ofhis code and the structure of his Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes an example of a complex system that ‘‘defy ourpossibilities for calculation.’’ Also because Jim’s AI is a distributed system there is no way to understand everything that isgoing on.

With this in mind, the affect is that Jim begins to not only value using literature to understand people and communicatewith them, but he sees writing or generating literature as a requirement to understanding people. Writing becomes arequirement to his system and a requirement that is given a very high priority – so that he values it so much that the writingof his book He Lights Her Cigarettes would take priority over all of his other tasks.

3.3. Engineering Uncertainty into business

The SF Prototype also explores the business consequences of a system like Jim. In contrast to the UNATS robot [6] that hasbeen locked down and is of little use in complex environments, Jim is highly adaptable. We are given the hint that after hefound the wrecked shuttle that he then investigated the light as did Egerton and Shanwei and eventually found the housewhere the shuttle was stolen. Jim’s curiosity made him a much more effective system than the UNATS robot.

The SF Prototype also looks as the possible new business models created by Jim’s uncertain system. He creates somethingnew, a novel that becomes a best seller – pushing the question of ownership. Should the robot’s owner claim rights to theprofit from the book? Can it be owned by the robot? Is it a shared ownership by the vast array of people to contribute to Jim’sAI online? Is it possible to even track this? Because Jim is a distributed system all over the world and he was programmed byso many people that they could not all be tracked down – then who gets the money?

What is the business effect of uncertainty? Can uncertainty be embraced in the development of future business models?How can the output of a complex system be monetized when that output will not be known until after the system is createdand deployed?

In the SF prototype the openness and uncertainty of Jim’s AI makes him a better product and allows him to adapt. ByMinsky’s design Jim is ‘‘a program that has several ways to proceed could [and] switch to some other approach, or search for asuitable substitute.’’ In contrast, the UNATS robots will be obsolete soon because it is a closed system, designed for a specific

B.D. Johnson / Futures 50 (2013) 56–65 65

environment and set of tasks. When the environment or the tasks that are needed change, the UNATS robot will fail. Thisapplies to the design of business models as well.

The business model for the Internet social media company Twitter provides great example of this. Biz Stone, one of the co-founders of the company, described the design of the company and its service as an exercise in uncertainty. Twitter wasdesigned as a way for friends to be able to find out what each other was doing across the city (San Francisco). ‘‘Then we took itto South by Southwest (an American music, film and Internet festival) and introduced it there. People loved it because theycould use it to hook up during the conference. We exploded. Everyone loved it. We were a success but we had no idea thatjust a few years later our service would change the geopolitical map of the world.’’ [7] (A reference to the use of Twitter as acommunications tool for the Arab Spring in 2011)

By embracing uncertainty both in their software and in their business plan, Twitter was able to grow, change and adapt toever-changing economic, social and political climates. Twitter as a company continues to change and adapt in its search forfinancial success.

The embrace of radically open and uncertain systems calls for a different approach to the design of future businessmodels. If the products and outputs of the business are by design always going to change and adapt then the business model,successes metrics, forecasts and valuation of these business will be in a state of flux as well. How do we engineer uncertaintyin business practices? Can we embrace this state of flux and adapt current business thinking to take advantage of theflexibility and agility of these uncertain systems? The SF prototype Engineering Uncertainty explores these questions.

3.4. Using science fiction as a development tool for business

Science fiction gives us a tool to explore the human, social, legal, ethical and business implications of technology, complexsystems and organizations. The structure of science fiction is such that it focuses on the effect of business on people. Mostgood stories focus on people and it is this focus that gives us a novel and innovative way to explore the future of business.Developing a SF prototype based up preset technology and business guidelines means that architecture of the story (aka theplot) provides multiple scenarios in this affects base planning model.

Ultimately Engineering Uncertainty gives us a glimpse of a new future that is both exciting and complex. It illuminatesWilliam Beyer’s observation that ‘‘the world of uncertainty is the world of creative possibilities’’ Byers [2].

Acknowledgements

I want to thank Peter Biddle and Cory Doctorow for some uproarious conversations/debates/arguments that lead to thisSF Prototype. I also would like to thank both Byers, Morin, Tetlock and Minsky for their fascinating research.

References

[1] E. Morin, On Complexity, Hampton Press, New York, 2008.[2] W. Byers, Blind Spot, Princeton University Press, New Jersey, 2011.[3] N.N. Taleb, The Black Swan, Random House, New York, 2007.[4] D. Gardner, Future Babble, McClelland and Stewart Ltd., London, 2010.[5] M. Minsky, The Emotion Machine, Simon and Schuster, New York, 2006.[6] A reference to Cory Doctorow’s robots in his story I, Robot.[7] From the Proceedings of World Economic and Futures Forum, Seoul; 2011.