Enhancing Crop Productivity and Food Security: The Role of

Agricultural Technologies

FAO Biotech SymposiumSide event: Helping Farmers Grow: Climate Change, Food

Security, and the Technology Nexus

FAO – Rome, Italy – February 15, 2016

Nicola CenacchiIFPRI - Environment and Production Technology

Division

Challenges• Income• Population growth• Water scarcity• Biofuel demand• Climate change

Growing threats to:• Land • Water• Environmental preservation • Biodiversity

Enhanced investment in agricultural research + technological change Game-changer

Lack sufficient knowledge • Disaggregated impacts of specific technologies by country • Agroclimatic zone

Business as Usual: Challenges and Threats = Continued Scarcity

Higher food prices

Presentation Overview1. Food Security in a World of Natural Resource

Scarcity – (IFPRI)

2. Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies – (IFPRI & GFSF)

Modeling climate and technology impacts on agriculture: biophysical & economic effects

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)

General circulation

models (GCMs)

Global gridded crop models

Global economic modelsΔ Temp

Δ Precip…

Δ Yield(biophys)

Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade

Climate Biophysical Economic

DSSAT model

IMPACTmodel

Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity:The Role of Agricultural Technologies

Global & Regional

Eleven technologies

Three Crops• Wheat• Rice• Maize

2 CC scenarios

• No-Tillage• Integrated Soil Fertility

Management• Organic Agriculture• Precision Agriculture• Crop Protection• Drip Irrigation• Sprinkler Irrigation • Water Harvesting• Drought Tolerance• Heat Tolerance• Nitrogen Use

Efficiency

Technology Assessment Scope

Change (%) in Yields:2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

maize rice wheat

0% 20% 40%% Difference in Avg. Yield

0% 20% 40%% Difference in Avg. Yield

0% 20% 40%% Difference in Avg. Yield

Developing

Nitrogen use efficiency

Heat tolerance

Drought tolerance

East Asia Pacific

Nitrogen use efficiency

Heat tolerance

Drought tolerance

South Asia

Nitrogen use efficiency

Heat tolerance

Drought tolerance

Sub SaharanAfrica

Nitrogen use efficiency

Heat tolerance

Drought tolerance

14.5%

13.4%

1.3%

20.6%

3.1%

0.2%

7.2%

9.2%

1.4%

20.2%

17.2%

0.5%

19.8%

3.3%

0.2%

11.4%

9.5%

0.0%

22.0%

27.1%

1.5%

24.0%

3.5%

0.1%

17.9%

20.3%

-0.1%

7.9%

3.5%

3.5%

20.9%

0.2%

0.4%

4.4%

4.5%

2.6%

Percent Change in World Price, Maize:2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

-1.2

-12.0

-15.5-18.0-16.0-14.0-12.0-10.0

-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.0

Change in price of Maize

-0.4

-5.8

-20.3-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Change in price of Rice

-1.5

-8.4-9.7

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

Change in price of Wheat

Change (%) in Population at Risk of Hunger:2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

-18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%Percent difference in population at risk

Developing

Nitrogen-efficient crop varieties

Heat-tolerant crop varieties

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

East Asia Pacific

Nitrogen-efficient crop varieties

Heat-tolerant crop varieties

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

South Asia

Nitrogen-efficient crop varieties

Heat-tolerant crop varieties

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

SubSaharanAfrica

Nitrogen-efficient crop varieties

Heat-tolerant crop varieties

Drought-tolerant crop varieties

-12.0%

-7.8%

-0.8%

-10.8%

-3.0%

-0.3%

-15.4%

-8.8%

-1.1%

-11.1%

-9.4%

-0.9%

10

11

Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative

Crop Technologies

Regional only

4 improved varieties

1 CC scenario

Multiple Crops• Wheat• Maize• Potato• Sorghum• Groundnut

• Drought Tolerance• Heat Tolerance• Drought & Heat

Tolerance• Stress Tolerance +

High Yield characters

Technology Assessment Scope

Crop Trait Countries (Region)

Maize Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe (M1)

Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2)

Wheat Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1)

Heat tolerance India, Pakistan (W2)

Drought and heat tolerance Argentina, South Africa (W3)

Potato Drought Tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (P1)Heat tolerance

Drought and heat tolerance

Sorghum Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (S1)

Groundnut Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam (G1)Heat tolerance

Drought and heat tolerance, high yielding

Adoption regions – by crop and improved trait

Black line represents 2050 yields without climate change with baseline technology

Source: Robinson et al. 2014.

Adoption of improved traits may reduce climate change impacts

Key Messages

Adoption of improved varieties shows the potential for reducing the effects of climate change on yields

There are possible large regional differences in yield impacts - it is important to target specific investments to specific regions

Large scale adoption of improved varieties may translate into positive food security outcomes due both to effects on production and on global food prices

Concluding Thoughts

The traits we model in these studies are independent from the technologies used to produce them

Conventional breeding can provide relatively slow improvements, but a steady progress

GM (transgenics) may allow more stepwise increase, but the regulatory and legislative challenges are slowing the process (including the progress of biosafety regulations and trials.)

Nicola Cenacchi, Senior Research AnalystEmail: n.cenacchi@cgiar.org

Environment and Production Technology DivisionInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)2033 K Street, NWWashington, DC 20006 USA

IFPRI: http://www.ifpri.org/Global Futures & Strategic Foresight: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/