enhancing regional cooperation in energy infrastructure ... · enhancing regional cooperation in...
TRANSCRIPT
Enhancing Regional Cooperation in Energy Infrastructure
Development
Davood Manzoor, Ph.D.
High-Level Policy Dialogue onRegional Cooperation and Inclusive
Development in South and South West Asia
18-19 October 2012, Le Meridien Hotel, New Delhi
Lecture Outlines
� Introductory remarks� Status of energy supply and demand in the region � Energy trade and import dependency� Energy cooperation initiatives� Regional electricity cooperation and integration � Energy projections of the region’s future energy
investment needs� Future requirements and possible options for the
involvement of ESCAP in facilitating cooperation in energy.
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nationshttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
world
ESCAP
Total Pacific
Total East and North-East Asia
Total North and Central Asia
Total South-East Asia
Total South and South-West Asia
tons of oil equivalent
per capita energy consumption( )
per capita(tons of oil equivalent)
Energy Consumption and annual Consumption growth rates
Region
Energy consumption Annual growth rate
Million Tons of oil equivalent precentage
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2009 1980-2009 1980-1995 1995-2002 2002-2009
World 6157.2 6732.3 7573.5 7976 8442.9 8784.6 9988.939 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.6
ESCAP region 1088.3 1359.8 1765.7 2967.5 3071.2 3331.6 5308.100 5.6 6.5 1.5 1.6
Total South and South-West Asia 168.3 2 37.5 330.6 434.8 565.8 585.3 910.393 6.0 6.1 3.8 5.7
Total South-East Asia 75.2 88.6 150.4 203.1 256 288.4 357.758 5.5 6.4 4.5 2.7
Total East and North-East Asia 770.2 945.2 1179.4 1484.6 1394.7 1585.4 3105.031 4.9 4.2 0.8 8.8
Total North and Central Asia … … … 729.3 724.1 738.5 789.087 … … 0.2 0.8
Total Pacific 74.7 88.5 105.3 115.8 130.6 134 145.831 2.3 2.8 1.8 1.1
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy intensity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2008
(kg
of o
il eq
uiva
lent
) per
$1,
000
GDP
(con
stan
t 200
5 PP
P)
World
The PCIFIC
East and North-East Asia
North and Central Asia
South-East ASIA
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Share of global energy production and consumption in ESCAP region
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
total
solids
liquids
gas
electricity
precentage
consumption
production
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy Production and annual production growth rates
Region
Energy production Annual growth rate
Million Tons of oil equivalent precentage
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2009 1980-2009 1980-1995 1995-2002 2002-2009
World 6661.6 7029.6 8140 8613 9150.3 9510.2 10869.93 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.7
ESCAP region 918.7 1268.7 1662.6 3207.9 3282.4 3643.2 6894.669 7.2 8.1 1.6 8.3
Total South and South-West Asia 182.1 285.1 397.7 490.2 564.9 567 849.346 5.4 6.4 1.8 5.2
Total South-East Asia 136.4 157.6 241.8 313.5 368.2 403 542.166 4.9 5.3 3.2 3.8
Total East and North-East Asia 515.2 699.7 856.8 1048.2 890.9 1096.5 3096.635 6.4 4.5 0.6 13.9
Total North and Central Asia … … … 1149.6 1206.6 1302.5 1543.48 … … 1.6 2.1
Total Pacific 84.9 126.3 166.3 206.4 251.8 274.3 322.907 4.1 5.7 3.6 2.1
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
total solids liquids gas electricityproduction 6894.651 3049.365 1704.106 1815.545 325.638
consumption 7064.215 2876.512 2024.943 1837.775 324.994
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Production and Consumption of energy in the ESCAP region (2009)
production
consumption
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Energy production by sub-region(2009)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
ESCAP region Total South andSouth-West Asia
Total South-EastAsia
Total East andNorth-East Asia
Total North andCentral Asia
Total Pacific
Mil
lion
ton
s of
oil
equ
ival
ent
electricity
gas
liquids
solids
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Share of global energy production and consumption in ESCAP region (2009)
Percentage of world total
Region
production consumption
total solids liquids gas electricity total solids liquids gas electricity
World 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
ESCAP region 63.4 87.5 42.1 65.1 59.3 68.8 84.4 60.3 61.9 57.6
Total South and South-West Asia 7.8 9.7 6.8 7.8 3.4 9.1 11.5 7.9 8.8 3.4
Total South-East Asia 5.0 6.4 3.4 6.2 1.4 3.6 2.9 4.4 3.9 1.4
Total East and North-East Asia 28.5 47.8 17.0 21.6 25.2 31.1 52.6 18.4 21.2 24.7
Total North and Central Asia 14.2 5.7 15.9 23.8 6.2 7.9 3.8 4.0 17.2 5.9
Total Pacific 3.0 6.9 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Fossil fuel reserves at the end of 2011
country
Oil: Proved reserves Natural gas: Proved reserves Coal: Proved Reserves at end 2011
Thousand million barrels Share of total R/P ratio Trillion cubic
metresShare of
total R/P ratio Million tonnes
Share of total R/P ratio
Australia 3.9 0.2% 21.9 3.8 1.8% 83.6 76400 8.9% 184Azerbaijan 7.0 0.4% 20.6 1.3 0.6% 85.8Bangladesh 0.4 0.2% 17.8
Brunei 1.1 0.1% 18.2 0.3 0.1% 22.5China 14.7 0.9% 9.9 3.1 1.5% 29.8 114500 13.3% 33
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 600 0.1% 19
India 5.7 0.3% 18.2 1.2 0.6% 26.9 60600 7.0% 103Indonesia 4.0 0.2% 11.8 3.0 1.4% 39.2 5529 0.6% 17
Iran 151.2 9.1% 95.8 33.1 15.9% *Japan 350 w 275
Kazakhstan 30.0 1.8% 44.7 1.9 0.9% 97.6 33600 3.9% 290Malaysia 5.9 0.4% 28.0 2.4 1.2% 39.4Myanmar 0.2 0.1% 17.8News land 571 0.1% 115Pakistan 0.8 0.4% 19.9 2070 0.2% *
PapuaNew Guinea 0.4 0.2% *Republic of Korea 126 w 60
Russian Federation 88.2 5.3% 23.5 44.6 21.4% 73.5 157010 18.2% 471Thailand 0.4 w 3.5 0.3 0.1% 7.6 1239 0.1% 58Turkey 2343 0.3% 30
Turkmenistan 0.6 w 7.6 24.3 11.7% *Uzbekistan 0.6 w 18.9 1.6 0.8% 28.1
Vietnam 4.4 0.3% 36.7 0.6 0.3% 72.3 150 w 3Other Asia Pacific 1.1 0.1% 10.4 0.3 0.2% 18.9 265843 30.9% 53
Source: BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
Import dependency(2009)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
World Total Pacific Total East andNorth-East Asia
Total North andCentral Asia
Total South-EastAsia
Total South andSouth-West Asia
source:2009 Energy Statistics Yearbook United Nations, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment_main.htm
Total primary energy supply projection, 2030(Million tons of oil equivalent)
Asia and Pacific World World alternative projection
coal 2 333 3 601 2 744
oil 2 100 5 766 4 995
Gas 1 294 4 130 3 701
Nuclear 343 764 868
Hydro 134 365 367
Biomass and waste 732 1 605 1 648
Other renewable 91 256 330
TOTAL 7 027 16 487 14 654
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, IEA, 2004).
Energy investment projections for several Asian and Pacific countries and country groupings based on current trends, upto 2030
(Billions of year 2000 United States dollars)
World OECD Pacific
Russian Federation and transition
economiesChina India Other South
and East Asia Asia- PacificDeveloping
countries of Asia-Pacific
Coal 398 36 13 123 25 197 161
Electricity 9841 809 377 1913 665 917 4681 3872
Oil 3096 44 440 119 32 131 766 722
Gas 3145 111 440 98 44 226 919 808
Total 16481 1000 1270 2253 766 1274 6563 5563
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2003).
Asia-Pacific World Universal electricity access (world) Alternative world scenario
Coal 197 398
Electricity 4681 9841
Oil 766 3096
Gas 919 3145
Total 6563 16481 17146 14338
Average annual investment 218 549 572 478
Energy investment projections, upto 2030 (Billions of year 2000 United States dollars)
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2003), and World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, OECD/IEA, 2004).
Energy Cooperation initiatives
Regional electricity integration
ØTechnical and economic benefits
ØOrganizational Requirements
ØFinancial Requirements
ØOperational Requirements
Energy Cooperation Challenges