Enrollment and Budget 2018 - Ferris State University · 2018-02-22 · Spring SCH as a percentage of Fall SCH has declined 2 percentage points since 2014. This emerging data pattern
20
Enrollment and Budget 2018: Strategic Analysis Reality of the Present Difficult Decisions Ahead and Hope for the Future David L. Eisler, president Sally DePew, director, budgetary planning & analysis Thank you for taking time to review and consider these data, ideas and analysis presented at Open Budget Forums on February 21 and 22, 2018. I have annotated these slides with comments using the Adobe sticky note function. If you will save this file to your computer and open it with an Adobe product, clicking on the yellow squares with the balloons inside will open a comment box. As always I would appreciate hearing from you, please write me at [email protected].
Thank you for taking time to review and consider these data, ideas and analysis presented at Open Budget Forums on February 21 and 22, 2018.I have annotated these slides with comments using the Adobe sticky note function. If you will save this file to your computer and open it with an Adobe product, clicking on the yellow squares with the balloons inside will open a comment box.
As always I would appreciate hearing from you, please write me at [email protected].
eislerd
Sticky Note
Thank you for taking time to review and consider these data, ideas and analysis presented at Open Budget Forums on February 21 and 22, 2018. I have annotated these slides with comments using the Adobe sticky note function. If you will save this file to your computer and open it with an Adobe product, clicking on the yellow squares with the balloons inside will open a comment box. As always I would appreciate hearing from you, please write me at [email protected].
Projected Number of Michigan High School Graduates
90,000
eislerd
Sticky Note
Since 2010 the number of students graduating from Michigan high schools has decreased by 15.25%. Between now and 2022 the number of students graduating from Michigan high schools will decline by an additional 6.4%. In 2022 there will be 20.7% fewer students graduating from Michigan high schools than there were in 2010. Over a five-year period leading up to 2022, there will be 116,000 fewer students graduating from Michigan high schools than there were in the five-year period leading up to 2010.
rasmusm3
Inserted Text
Michigan Public University Enrollment TrendsFall Headcount Percent Change 2012 to 2017
-15.5%-14.3% -14.3% -13.5%
-11.7%
-8.4%-6.2% -5.8%
-4.1%-2.9%
1.4% 2.3%3.7%
4.9% 5.2%
SVS NMU CMU EMU LSS UMF FSU WMU OAK WSU MSU GVS UMD MTU UMA
eislerd
Sticky Note
Many people throughout the university work very, very hard on attracting and retaining students at our university. This analysis will show that what we are experiencing is a statewide challenge. Between 2012 and 2017 fall headcount enrollment at Ferris declined 6.2%. Over this period we have done significantly better than a number of other public universities.
Michigan Public University Enrollment TrendsFall Headcount Percent Change 2016 to 2017
-5.6% -5.5%
-4.1% -3.8%-3.4%
-2.7% -2.6%-1.8% -1.6% -1.5%
-0.8% -0.6%
0.7%
2.3%2.9%
CMU SVS LSS EMU OAK FSU UMF NMU GVS WMU WSU MSU MTU UMD UMA
eislerd
Sticky Note
This one-year headcount comparison presents an alarming trend. Only the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor and Dearborn show significant enrollment growth. Twelve universities, including Michigan State, have declines. Compared to other universities we are not doing as well as we have in the past. Looking at these numbers it is easy to understand that on university campuses throughout the state people are working to boost their enrollment. This will make a competitive marketplace even more so. If we are to increase our share of students, we will need to consider how we can be more effective, how we can be the choice of more new students, and how we can retain more of our students.
Michigan Public Higher Education
Since 2013-2014 -• Public university enrollment has declined by 10,590 students
– Four universities have lost over 10% of their enrollment
• Community college enrollment has declined by 37,187 students– No community college has significant growth over past five years– Two community colleges have lost over 30% of their enrollment and
four have lost more than 20%
• Collectively there are 47,777 fewer students in Michigan public higher education
eislerd
Sticky Note
In fall 2017 there were 290,469 students enrolled in Michigan public universities and 189,772 students enrolled in Michigan community colleges.
New FTIAC Students Without Concurrent, Dual Enrollment
Fall Semester
2,037 1,959 1,976 1,834 1,827
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Without Concurrent\Dual Enrollment, decline from 2013-2017 is 210 or 10.31%
eislerd
Sticky Note
As we look at Ferris data, I want to emphasize that none of this is intended as a critique of the excellent work underway. Without exceptional, dedicated hard work, these data could be far more challenging. The data in this presentation consistently uses a five-year window for comparison. These data are fall semester headcount and are for the entire university. There is a positive sign in near level numbers of new students for this fall. We will work very hard to sustain this new enrollment pattern, but even level enrollment is 10% less in 2013.
New Transfer StudentsFall Semester
1,572 1,546 1,473 1,391 1,253
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Decline from 2013 to 2017 is 319 or 20.29%
eislerd
Sticky Note
The transfer data is of greater concern as new transfer students continue to decline. This is understandable given the diminished numbers of community college students, but we know that transfer students do very well at Ferris. And we believe we are a great fit for them. I am hopeful we can reverse this trend.
Continuing StudentsFall Semester
9,764 9,698 9,891 9,491 9,102
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Decline from 2013 to 2017 is 662 or 6.78%
eislerd
Sticky Note
When a fall entering class is less than the previous year or less than the number of graduates, there is a multiple year impact as that group of fewer students moves through its education at Ferris. It is likely the number of continuing students will decrease based on past fall enrollments. To get back to a growth pattern, we will need to grow with new students to overcome this.
FSU Student Credit Hour Enrollment
358,972 357,831 357,471343,289
331,856
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Annual
Decline from 2013-14 to 2017-18 is 27,116 SCH or 7.55%
eislerd
Sticky Note
These data are annual student credit hours and are for the entire university. There is some decline from FY14 to FY15 to FY16, but it is the last two years that show significant declines in SCH.
FSU Student Credit Hour Enrollment
328,555 326,916 329,069317,555 308,801
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Annual – Big Rapids/Regional/Online
Decline from 2013-14 to 2017-18 is 19,754 SCH or 6.01%
eislerd
Sticky Note
These data are annual student credit hours and include the Big Rapids campus, regional campuses, and online. They do not include Kendall. This pattern reflects the previous slide, with the exception of a slight increase for FY16. Again, it is the last two years that show significant declines in SCH.
FSU Student Credit Hour Enrollment
30,417 30,91528,402
25,73423,055
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Annual – Kendall
Decline from 2013-14 to 2017-18 is 7,362 SCH or 24.2%
eislerd
Sticky Note
These data are annual student credit hours for Kendall. Here significant decline begins in FY16 and continues for FY17 and FY18. The decrease is also much larger.
Spring SCH as a % of Fall Big Rapids/Regional
94.3%
94.8%
93.1%
93.5%
92.5%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Spring SCH as a percentage of Fall SCH has declined 2 percentage points since 2014.
eislerd
Sticky Note
This emerging data pattern is an area of concern. There is always a decline between fall and spring semester. In past years, when fall enrollment was down slightly, spring enrollment would rebound and be higher than expected. Since 2015 spring SCH as a percent of fall have been declining.
Summary Enrollment Trends
Since 2013-2014 -• University-wide SCH have declined 27,116 or 7.55%
– BR\Regional\Online SCH have declined 19,754 or 6.01%– KCAD SCH have declined 7,362 or 24.2 %
• New Fall students have declined 14.66%– FTIACs have declined 210 – 10.31%– Transfer students have declined 319 – 20.29%
• Fall continuing students have declined 662 – 6.78%
• Spring SCH as a % of fall has declined from 94.3% to 92.5%
Reality of the Present
In Big Rapids:
• 2016 -2017 Reduction of $5.15 million• 2017 -2018 Reduction of $4.10 million
-Includes additional $670k reduction due to spring decline
Total base reductions for two years - $9.25 million
At Kendall:• 2015-2016 Reduction of $2.13 million• 2016-2018 Reduction of $1.3 million
eislerd
Sticky Note
These are budget reductions already implemented. The decline in spring enrollment created a decrease in revenue of $670k more than expected. Because of the pattern of its decline, Kendall began budget reductions one year earlier.
Difficult Decisions Ahead
We face continued enrollment declines between 3 and 4%
Next year we need to reduce the budget
$5 million in Big Rapids
$1.5 million at Kendall
Unless enrollment patterns change the next three years represent -
$4 - 5 million annual base reductions in Big Rapids
$900k to $1.25 million annual base reductions at Kendall
eislerd
Sticky Note
We will work very hard to reverse these enrollment trends, but we are in a very challenging, competitive environment. If we do not change these trends, additional reductions are ahead and we need to plan for them in advance.
Difficult Decisions Ahead
Over four years this totals
an additional $17 – $20 million in reductions in Big Rapids
an additional $4.25 - $5.25 million in reductions at Kendall
Vice Presidents are now beginning the financial planning for next year’s reduction and the framework for future reductions.
These reductions are enrollment driven. They do not include
- the prospect of reduced state support or
- the impact of an economic recession.
We can change this future and I am optimistic that we will.
eislerd
Sticky Note
These are sobering numbers. We need to understand and acknowledge them. However this does not need to be our future path. I am convinced that our education at Ferris is what both students and Michigan need. Working together, with solid strategy and effective tactics, we can be successful in reversing our trends and stand out among Michigan's public universities.
Hope for the Future
• Strong student recruitment efforts
• Push back state cap on TIP
• Increase summer school enrollment to take full advantage of year-round Pell
• Remove impediments for transfer students
• Address decline in on-line SCH
• Improve student retention
eislerd
Sticky Note
There is much we are doing and can do, and I am both optimistic and enthusiastic about our future. We need to find more ways that we can all work together on student recruitment.
eislerd
Sticky Note
Finally, retention numbers at Ferris are improved from in the past, and while stable, do not continue to improve. It costs far less to retain a student than it does to recruit a new one. And in doing so we help a student on his or her pathway to success.
eislerd
Sticky Note
We have seen decline in our online SCH. I believe there is demand both on- and off-campus for online education. We need to address this need or others will offer these courses to our students.
eislerd
Sticky Note
I am convinced that Ferris can attract more transfer students despite the reduced community college numbers. However, we understand that transfer students want to know how many of their courses have transferred and how long it will take them to graduate, and they want to know this quickly.
eislerd
Sticky Note
Academic Affairs sponsored a two-day event encouraging summer school enrollment. With year-round Pell funding, more students can take advantage of summer school at Ferris.
eislerd
Sticky Note
I will work very hard in Lansing to push back the cap on state payments in the Tuition incentive Program to our students.
Hope for the Future
• Build on renewed interest in programs at community colleges
• Leverage concurrent and dual enrollment into full-time students
• Create innovative, high-demand, new programs
• Comprehensive campaign scholarships
• New branding campaign
• New strategic plan
eislerd
Sticky Note
This year in visits to community colleges we are seeing far more interest from innovative community college presidents in partnering with Ferris. They see our programs on their campuses as a way to boost their enrollment and to create a path for their students to earn both an associate and bachelor's degree. Given the decline in community college enrollments, it will be challenging to increase enrollments in existing programs, but there are opportunities in additional programs we can offer.
eislerd
Sticky Note
This year we are teaching Ferris courses to over 1,100 high school students. These students already have a Ferris ID and transcript. We need to find ways to recruit more of these students to continue their education after high school at Ferris. Our Ferris Next Scholarship is a good start on this.
eislerd
Sticky Note
One of the things that impressed me greatly when I joined Ferris 15 years ago was the ability of Ferris faculty to create new, successful academic programs. It truly is remarkable and is a great strength. We need to look to see what new, high-demand programs can help attract students to Ferris.
eislerd
Sticky Note
A major component of our comprehensive campaign is our Ferris Futures Scholarship Challenge. In 18 months we have raised $5 million in contributions and created 110 new scholarships. This will help us attract and retain more students.
eislerd
Sticky Note
Last year there were several examples of public universities that invested large amounts in billboard campaigns and who had enrollment declines much greater than ours. We need to fine tune our message about the strengths of a Ferris education so that we can recruit more new students.
eislerd
Sticky Note
A group of dedicated faculty and staff are working very hard on our next strategic plan. Recruitment and retention will certainly be a major part of this, and I look forward to hearing and working to implement these ideas.
Your Help is Needed
Your best thinking and ideas are needed on how we can significantly reduce the budget and continue to provide a superior educational experience.
We can help change our future path through concerted, successful efforts to recruit and retain students.
eislerd
Sticky Note
Your thoughts, ideas, and suggestions are important. I welcome all of your comments. Please write me [email protected].
Thank You
Your thoughts and ideas are needed.
Your willingness to work through this together is needed.
Our success relies on your help.
Working together we can and we will solve these challenges, continuing to build a greater university together.
Thank you for your help and support.
David L. Eisler, president
eislerd
Sticky Note
Without question some of this is sobering news. I believe in the education we provide and the life-changing difference it makes for our students. There is no better place in Michigan to earn a degree that prepares students for success both in a career and in life. I believe in our faculty and staff and the difference you make for our students. If we work together, we can and will succeed.
