ensc425/625 climate change and global warming
TRANSCRIPT
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Level of confidence is higher
CO2, more warming (1.68 vs 1.66)
Surface albedo, less cooling (-0.15 vs -0.2)
Aerosols & precursors, less cooling (-0.27 vs -0.4)
Cloud albedo due to aerosols, less cooling (-0.55
vs -0.7)
Solar radiation, less warming (0.05 vs 0.12)
Total anthropogenic, more warming (2.29 vs
1.6)
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• AR4
5
• AR5
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No ◦ Tremendous interannual and interdecadal variability in
the climate system (ENSO, PDO, AO, etc)
◦ Evidence that the extra heat is in the oceans (ocean
warming dominates the increase in energy in the climate
system)
◦ Decadal averages show increasing temperatures
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
It is “extremely likely that human influence has
been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century”
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Example
RCP8.5: Constant emissions after 2100 and constant concentrations
after 2250 with smooth transition of emissions between 2150 and
2250.
RCP2.6
2.6 W m-2 RCP4.5
4.5 W m-2 RCP6.0
6.0 W m-2 RCP8.5
8.5W m-2
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12
AR4
AR5
15
AR5
16
AR4
AR5