enso teleconnec,ons%and%how%itmightchange%% with%global%warming% · 2015. 6. 14. · enso, its...
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ENSO teleconnec,ons and how it might change with global warming
Sang-‐Wook Yeh Hanyang University
! ENSO Teleconnec,ons
Alexander et al., (2000)
Horel and Wallace (1981)
Lau (1997)
! Open ques,ons
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
Yeh et al. (2009) El Nino in a changing climate
Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino Central Pacific (CP) El Nino
500hPa geopoten,al height
Graf and ZancheYn (2012): Central Pacific El Nino, the ‘subtropical bridge” and Eurasian climate J. Geophy. Res.
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
EP El Nino CP El Nino
Cai et al., (2010): Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnec,on with regional rainfall, its mul,decadal variability, and impact. J. Climate.
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
Lee (2014): Teleconnec,ons and impacts of ENSO diversity, U.S. CLIVAR
Lee et al., (2014): Spring,me ENSO phase evolu,on and its rela,on to rainfall in the con,nental US Geophy. Res. Lebs.
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
(1) How the teleconnec,ons are sensi,ve to the ENSO forcing in terrms of its spa$al structure, evoltuion, and intensity?
Discussion 1
Global warming
Changes in ENSO spa,al structure, evolu,on and intensity
Changes in the ENSO teleconnec,ons
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
Gershunov and Barneb, (1998). Interdecadal modula,on of ENSO teleconnec,ons. BAMS.
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
Nega,ve phase of PDO Posi,ve phase of PDO
Diaz et al. (2001) ENSO variability, teleconnec,ons and climate change, Int. J. Climatol.
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
Kim et al. (2014): Combined effect of ENSO and PDO on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim. Dyna.
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
Ham et al. (2014): Role of Tropical Atlan,c SST variability as a modulator of El Nino teleconnec,ons Asia-‐Paci. J. Atmos. Sci.
(2) How the ENSO teleconnec,ons are modulated by the other ocean ?
Discussion 2
(1) How the ENSO-‐PDO rela,onship would be changed under global warming?
(2) How the ENSO-‐Atlan,c SST rela,onship would be changed under global warming ?
Discussion 2-‐1
(1) How the ENSO-‐PDO rela,onship would be changed under global warming?
An in-‐phase rela,onship of ENSO-‐PDO would be increased under gloal warming, therefore, one may expect stronger ENSO teleconnec,ons in the midla,tudes
Kwon et al. (2013): Changes in the linear rela,onship of under the global warming. Int. J. Climatol.
20C3M SRESA1B
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
Kug et al., (2010): Changes in El Nino and La Nina teleconnec,ons over North Pacific-‐America in the global warming simula,ons. Theor. Appl. Climatol.
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
Discussion 3
Q1] The non-‐linearity would be enhanced or reduced under global warming?
Q2] How the deep convec$on in the tropics would be changed under global warming?
ENSO, its precursor, and their change under global warming
You are cordially invited to submit a paper for presentation in the session on “ENSO, its precursor, and their change under global warming” at the AGU Fall meeting at San Francisco 15 – 19 December 2014.
As of summer 2014, most operational centers have predicted moderate-to-strong El Niño to develop into the 2014-15 winter. The ocean and atmospheric conditions leading up to this developing El Niño, namely the ENSO precursor pattern, have been observed and monitored since the winter of 2013-14. The processes leading to the formation of such precursor pattern are manifold and complex, and have been observed to undergo certain changes during the 1970s owing to both natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms. The goal of this session is to assemble physical evidence of, and address mechanisms for, any changes in the ENSO precursor pattern and how such changes affect the future development of ENSO. Subjects of interest include recent findings on any form of ENSO precursor patterns, their climate impacts, advancement in ENSO forecasting, and attribution of any change in the ENSO behavior.
Thank you
Discussion 1
Global warming
Changes in ENSO spa,al structure, evolu,on and intensity
Changes in the ENSO teleconnec,ons
Changes in Other Ocean SST
Present climate
Future climate
(3) The change of ENSO teleconnec$ons in response to global warming
Kwon et al., (2013): Changes in the linear rela,onship of ENSO-‐PDO under the global warming, Int. J. Climatology.