ensuring global food security
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Ensuring Global Food Security. Shenggen Fan International Food Policy Research Institute. SID Vijverberg Session on Food The Hague, September 22, 2009. Overview. Food security under stress Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Policy agenda for investment and action. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Ensuring Global Food SecurityEnsuring Global Food Security
Shenggen FanShenggen FanInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute
SID Vijverberg Session on Food SID Vijverberg Session on Food The Hague, September 22, 2009The Hague, September 22, 2009
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
OverviewOverview
1.1. Food security under stressFood security under stress
2.2. Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition
3.3. Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors Food insecurity due to multiple stress factors
Climate change Climate change
Price volatilityPrice volatility
Fast growth of demandFast growth of demand
Land degradation Land degradation
Water Water scarcity scarcity
Limited capitalLimited capital
RecessionRecession
Low R&D investmentLow R&D investment
Lack of infrastructureLack of infrastructure
Subsidized biofuelsSubsidized biofuels
Declining tradeDeclining trade
Pests & diseases Pests & diseases
Food security
Agriculture is a necessary condition Agriculture is a necessary condition to address these stress factorsto address these stress factors
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Food price crisis and food riotsFood price crisis and food riots
Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009.
Price spike
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Domestic prices remain high and volatileDomestic prices remain high and volatile
Source: FAO 2009.Source: FAO 2009.
MaizeMaize RiceRice
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Food crisis worsened by economic Food crisis worsened by economic recessionsrecessions
Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Land constraintsLand constraints
• At most 12% more arable land available that At most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification or desertification (Thompson 2009)(Thompson 2009)
• Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000Land prices per hectare: $1,000 – $100,000
• Land area in production could be doubled, Land area in production could be doubled, but only by:but only by:- massive destruction of forests and loss of massive destruction of forests and loss of
biodiversity and carbon sequestration biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacitycapacity
- high marginal costs of investmenthigh marginal costs of investment
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Water constraints: Water constraints: Areas of physical and economic water scarcityAreas of physical and economic water scarcity
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.Agriculture, 2007.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Rising number of hungry people in the Rising number of hungry people in the developing world developing world
Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.
(in m
illio
n)
>1 bil.
WFS target
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Rising world population adds to pressures Rising world population adds to pressures on food securityon food security
Source: Worldmapper 2009.
Countries resized relative to population in 2050
Population = 9 bil. by 2050Population = 9 bil. by 2050
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
OverviewOverview
1.1. Food security under stressFood security under stress
2.2. Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition
3.3. Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Irrigated wheatIrrigated wheat
NCAR A2a
Global production = -42%Global production = -42%Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Global food prices Global food prices
Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Child malnutritionChild malnutrition
Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Part of the silent
Climate change
health crisis
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Agriculture must be on the 2009 Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how?Copenhagen agenda, but how?
1.1. Investment: Investment: agriculture-related investments, agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund as part of a Global Climate Change Fund
2.2. Incentives: Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological changeemissions and support technological change
3.3. Information: Information: Establish comprehensive Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposesuse and soils for verification purposes
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Policy and investment scenarios Policy and investment scenarios
1.1. INC AG RESINC AG RES: 60% increase in crop yield growth : 60% increase in crop yield growth and 30% increase in livestock growthand 30% increase in livestock growth
2.2. INC AG RES w/EFFINC AG RES w/EFF: productivity growth by 30% in : productivity growth by 30% in 2015 and by 50% in 2030 2015 and by 50% in 2030
3.3. NRM/IMMNRM/IMM:: Enhanced water and soil management Enhanced water and soil management with enhanced market accesswith enhanced market access
4.4. INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXPINC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP
5.5. COMP POL_INVCOMP POL_INV:: NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + NRM/IMM + INC AG RES w/EFF + IRR EXPIRR EXP
Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
MaizeMaize yields yields
SA SSA Developing World2000 (mt/ha) 1.9 1.5 3.0 4.4 2025NCAR CF (mt/ha) 2.5 2.0 4.5 6.4 NRM/IMM (3) 1.4 2.5 1.3 -0.1INC AG RES (1) 5.0 9.7 7.9 2.6 INC AG RES w/EFF (2) 5.9 11.6 9.4 3.2 INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP (4) 6.5 10.4 9.6 3.6 COMP POL_INV (5) 7.9 14.4 11.2 3.7 2050NCAR CF (mt/ha) 2.4 2.2 5.4 7.8 NRM/IMM (3) 1.7 2.7 1.0 -0.2INC AG RES (1) 5.2 19.9 18.1 5.7 INC AG RES w/EFF (2) 3.9 48.9 47.3 16.6 INC AG RES w/EFF & IRR EXP (4) 6.5 48.9 48.2 17.5 COMP POL_INV (5) 8.3 53.6 47.8 17.0
Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
PricesPrices
2000US$/mt
CC w/CFUS$/mt
NRM/IMM (3)
INC AG RES(1)
INC AG RES
w/EFF(2)
INC AG RES w/EFF
& IRR EXP(4)
COMP POL_INV (5)
Percent change, 2025Beef 1,925 2,402 -0.4 -5.6 -8.4 -8.3 -8.8Pork 911 1,061 -0.9 -4.9 -8.0 -7.8 -8.7Poultry 1,203 1,451 -0.3 -7.3 -10.2 -10.0 -10.3Rice 190 272 -0.6 -7.5 -8.8 -9.7 -10.3Wheat 113 203 -2.1 -12.4 -14.2 -13.0 -14.9
Percent change, 2050Beef 1,925 3,352 -0.6 -13.6 -38.0 -37.7 -38.1Pork 911 1,474 -0.9 -16.9 -40.0 -39.7 -40.3Poultry 1,203 2,010 -0.6 -17.0 -41.5 -41.1 -41.4Rice 190 347 0.2 -18.7 -40.3 -41.9 -41.7Wheat 113 297 -3.7 -28.2 -53.3 -50.9 -53.1Maize 95 210 -2.0 -37.9 -64.0 -62.7 -62.6
Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
2000 CC w/CF
NRM/IMM (3)
INC AG RES (1)
INC AG RES w/EFF (2)
INC AG RES w/EFF& IRR EXP (4)
COMP POL_INV (5)
Mil. children
Mil. children Percentage change, 2025
SA 75.6 66.4 -2.4 -3.3 -3.8 -3.7 -6.2SSA 32.7 44.7 -5.5 -8.5 -9.8 -9.3 -14.8Developing 147.8 140.0 -4.1 -6.3 -7.3 -7.0 -11.2
Percent change, 2050SA 75.6 52.6 -2.6 -9.1 -19.5 -19.1 -21.8SSA 32.7 34.2 -6.9 -25.3 -55.8 -54.2 -60.1Developing 147.8 106.4 -4.8 -18.0 -36.2 -35.4 -39.2
Child malnutritionChild malnutrition
Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
OverviewOverview
1.1. Food security under stressFood security under stress
2.2. Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition Outlook: Production, prices, nutrition
3.3. Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Strategic agendaStrategic agenda
1.1. Facilitate open Facilitate open tradetrade and reduce market and reduce market volatility volatility
2.2. Promote pro-poor Promote pro-poor agriculture growth agriculture growth with with technology and institutional innovationstechnology and institutional innovations
3.3. Expand social protection and child Expand social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Policy agenda for investment and actionPolicy agenda for investment and action
Short-termShort-term::• Jumpstart agric. productivity in key areasJumpstart agric. productivity in key areas• Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce Establish emergency grain reserve to reduce
volatilityvolatility• Expand emergency and humanitarian assistanceExpand emergency and humanitarian assistance
Long-termLong-term::• Invest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growthInvest in sustainable pro-poor agric. growth• Calm markets and facilitate open tradeCalm markets and facilitate open trade• Invest in social protection and child nutrition Invest in social protection and child nutrition
actionaction
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Short-term actions for agric. productivity Short-term actions for agric. productivity enhancementenhancement
• Access to finance Access to finance (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance) (e.g. rural banks and micro-finance)
• Expansion of risk management Expansion of risk management (e.g. crop insurance)(e.g. crop insurance)
• Access to inputs Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)(e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs)
• Access to services, extension Access to services, extension
• Investment in rural infrastructure Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation) (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Long-term action for agric. growth:Long-term action for agric. growth:Double public agric. R&D to impact povertyDouble public agric. R&D to impact poverty
CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansionas part of this expansion
Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.
R&D allocation(mil. 2005 $)
in # of poor (mil.)2008-2020
+ Agr. output growth (% pts.)
2008-20202008* 2013SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4Devel.ing World 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Calm markets and facilitate open tradeCalm markets and facilitate open trade
1.1. Keep trade openKeep trade open even at times of global and even at times of global and regional food shortageregional food shortage
2.2. Regulate food Regulate food commodity marketscommodity markets? (only as ? (only as part of financial markets)part of financial markets)
3.3. Establish grain Establish grain reserves policyreserves policy at global level at global level• shared physical reserves, andshared physical reserves, and• virtual reserve (a new institution at global virtual reserve (a new institution at global
levellevel))
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Invest in social protection and child Invest in social protection and child nutrition actionnutrition action
Protective actions e.g.:Protective actions e.g.:• Cash transfersCash transfers• Employment-based food security programsEmployment-based food security programs
Preventive actions e.g.:Preventive actions e.g.:• School feeding (new insights)School feeding (new insights)• Early childhood nutrition programs Early childhood nutrition programs
Focus on children, women, and poorestFocus on children, women, and poorest
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, September 2009
Food Security PortalFood Security Portalhttp://www.foodsecurityportal.orghttp://www.foodsecurityportal.org
• Presents current Presents current info on world info on world food system food system developmentsdevelopments
• Increases ability Increases ability to respond to respond quickly and quickly and adequatelyadequately
• Facilitated by Facilitated by IFPRIIFPRI