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    Who Governs the Global Environment?

    summarises key lessons from social scienceresearch in the area of global governance.

    It is organised around five questions:

    Important contributions of GECP studies

    to national and internat ional research are

    highlighted in text boxes.

    Key academic references for each project

    are listed at the end of the document.

    This document can be accessed and

    downloaded from the internet at

    www.gecko.ac.uk.

    The website also offers valuable links to

    researchers, project descriptions and

    further web resources.

    1 Do international environmental regimes work?

    2 How fair are international environmental regimes?

    3 Can environmental and trade objectives be better integrated?

    4 Do global issues always call for global act ion?

    5 How can policy be orchestrated for many players at many levels?

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    Despite some impressive progress over the past 30 years, protecting

    the natural environment is still one of todays top global issues.

    Industrial pollution and other headline dangers have been

    successfully tackled in places. Yet old ills stubbornly persist and new

    dangers have been recognised.

    At the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, the international community affirmed

    that current patterns of economic and social development are not

    sustainable. Since then there have been many constructive responses in

    government, business and the civil society to meet the challenges that lie

    ahead. But protecting the environment has been recognised as a broader

    and more challenging task than it seemed:

    - Achieving sustainable development will require significant changes in the

    way economic activities are organised and lifestyles are secured. Producers

    as well as consumers have a role in reducing this pressure.

    - Environmental policies succeed only if they also promise social benefits

    such as poverty reduction and work in ways that bolster business

    competitiveness. Conversely, all policy domains need to incorporate

    environmental and social aspirations.

    - Uncertainty is central to environmental problem-solving. Decisions have to

    deal with conflicting opinions about environmental problems, the risks they

    pose to different groups in society, and the need to build trust and engage

    citizens in solutions.

    At the same time, processes of political decision-making are growing more

    dispersed. The world has become more interdependent. Many decisions

    have shifted to the international, regional and local level. Politics is

    increasingly conducted outside traditional institutions. Officialdom has to

    listen more closely to voices in business and at societys grassroots, and

    involve them in the outcomes that they seek.

    Re-thinking thequestions

    Who governs the global environment? Preface 1

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    Protecting the environment effectively and fairly in the absence of a clearly

    defined political centre presents many predicaments. There are great

    opportunities for more open, legitimate and flexible governance, but thereare also dangers that expectations are not met. What is at stake, therefore,

    is a new form of participatory governance, operating through partnerships,

    and acting across geographical space and time. This prospect involves fresh

    ways of visualising futures and assisting people to shape their own destinies.

    Who governs the global environment?Preface2

    D eci si ons have to deal

    with conflicting opinions

    about environmental

    problems, the r i sks they

    pose to different groups in

    soci ety, and the need to

    build trust and

    engage ci t i zensin solutions.

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    Planet-wide environmental problems like climate change and depletion

    of the ozone layer first became common knowledge and mainstream

    political concerns in the early 1990 s, partly through the public and

    media debates surrounding the Earth Summit. Many assumed that solutions

    would mainly be up to governments co-operating at international level. Some

    progress has since been made in this intergovernmental arena, yet many

    feel frustrated by its slow pace.

    Key lessons of the past decade have been that:

    - International agreements are rarely easy to establish, implement and

    enforce. We should view them not as magic bullets, but as political

    frameworks for long-term co-operation and learning.

    - To be effective and fair, environmental law-giving must recognise that

    capacities, interests and priorities are not the same in Southern

    developing countries as they are in Northern countries. Most current

    environmental strategies, rules and institutions skate over development

    issues.

    - International agreements on trade and on the environment are largely

    separated. Linking the two more closely would give national and

    international environmental policies more muscle.

    - International agreements are not a universal remedy for globalenvironmental problems and are no substitute for local commitment. The

    nature of the problem and its causes should decide the level at which

    action is most urgently needed.

    - As powers to make political decisions become more distributed and

    diffuse, governments have to act more and more as strategists and go-

    betweens whose mandate is to reconcile the plural interests of different

    stakeholder groups.

    Who governs the global environment? Summary 3

    Summary:What have we learnt aboutglobal environmentalgovernance?

    I nternat i onal agreements

    are not a universal

    remedy for globalenvi ronmental probl ems

    and are no substitute

    for local

    commitment.

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    Who governs the global environment?4

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    The Global Environmental Change Programme (GECP) has

    spearheaded the UK research communitys input to understanding

    and shaping the international management of environmental

    problems. Two concepts - governance and regime - are central. By

    governance we mean the rules by which we govern ourselves and regulate

    the conduct of organisations in society. By regime we mean the collection of

    legal, institutional and political processes through which governance is

    carried out. Better governance is measured in terms of establishing

    effective, legitimate, fair and enduring ways of protecting the environment.

    In the past 20 years, natural scientists have identified global concerns such

    as climate change, loss of natural biodiversity, acid rain and deforestation.To fix such problems seemed beyond the scope of any national

    governments. New international pacts, conventions and protocols rooted in

    a common commitment to sustainable development seemed the right

    response. Today, there are several hundred international environmental

    regimes.

    The development of these regimes poses fundamental questions. How fair

    are environmental agreements? Who sets the agenda? What is the link

    between environmental and other objectives, especially economic and social

    development? Countries set different priorities and have different ideas

    about their responsibility for dealing with problems. Such differences must

    be catered for, and not for ethical reasons alone. International agreements

    will fail to deliver unless they embrace pluralism.

    Social and political obstacles have meant that many international

    environmental regimes have not lived up to expectations. Researchers have

    taken this as a cue to rethink the question of who governs the global

    environment? If international mechanisms are not always up to the task,

    and if countries see few incentives to go it alone what alternatives are

    there for finding co-operative solutions to these problems?

    Who governs the global environment? Int roduct ion 5

    Governing the globalenvironment

    Over the l ast

    decade we have seen both

    the potentials, but alsothe severe limitations,

    of a new international

    approach to

    environmental

    i ssues.

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    In the past, debates about international environmental policy focused on the

    role of governments that signed up to agreements and treaties. In todays

    more interconnected world, decisions are influenced by a wider range ofdifferent players.

    Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), corporate and financial interests,

    and consumers and citizens groups have won a louder voice in influencing

    decisions. They also have a bigger hand in delivering action.

    Thus over the last decade we have seen both the potentials, but also the

    limitations, of a new international approach to environmental issues.

    Reflections on this experience by GECP researchers and others have

    pointed to important new directions for global environmental governance.

    The debate has moved from a focus on governments on to a multitude of

    partners; from the international level to governance at different levels; from

    a predominantly environmental focus to a more integrated approach; and

    from a largely formal, legalistic process to a more open and participatory

    response. Taken together, such shifts in thinking imply a radical rethink in

    global environmental governance arrangements established in the wake of

    the Rio process.

    Who governs the global environment?Introduction6

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    The number of international agreements that deal with such matters

    as environmental pollution or the protection of natural resources has

    mushroomed in recent decades. This new phenomenon has

    prompted researchers to probe how such agreements work and to query the

    informal rules and procedures that surround them often collectively

    referred to as international regimes .

    Controversy over the contribution that such regimes can make to political

    problem-solving has polarised the debate into two positions. A realist point

    of view holds that we cannot and should not expect much from international

    environmental co-operation because governments pursue only those policies

    that suit their own interests. Since national interests nearly always collidewhen shared resources are at stake, the chances are that states will be

    unwilling or unlikely to create strong regimes. In contrast, the

    institutionalist position argues that political institutions can develop a

    dynamic of their own once common material or ethical objectives are agreed

    on as a must. Hence international co-operation can be an effective platform

    for policy reform, though not always in the manner intended.

    Empirical studies have shown that the success of regimes, although hard to

    measure, varies greatly. For example, the regime on tropical timber is widely

    seen as a failure, but that on stratospheric ozone is usually presented as a

    success. Some cases seem to confirm the realist viewpoint. Negotiations

    are arduous, states do not comply with agreed measures and effective

    sanctions against non-compliance are rarely set in place. In other cases,

    however, regimes can create a cascade of indirect effects. They can draw

    attention to a problem, contribute to shared understanding of causes and

    effects of specific problems and boost institutional capacity in specific

    areas.

    Who governs the global environment? 1 2 3 4 5 7

    Do internationalenvironmental regimeswork?1

    International regimes

    have been established

    for a variety of

    environmental problems,

    but with varying

    success.

    What can we learn from

    past experiences?

    Under what conditions

    can they be successful?

    How are effective

    environmental regimes

    designed?

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    By analysing and comparing different regimes to find out how their varying

    success can be explained, research suggested how future agreements

    should be designed. The purpose of regimes is to avoid a situation where

    some countries contribute to the abatement of pollution while others benefit

    from it without sharing the burden, a phenomenon know as free-riding .

    Regimes therefore aim to define rules that give all states incentives to co-

    operate and to contribute to agreed remedial measures. The success of

    regimes cannot be attributed to any single factor. Moreover, the appropriate

    choice of structure always depends on circumstances. Detail matters. Even

    so, some elements can be identified that tend to make environmental

    regimes work better whatever the circumstances, including:

    - rules that ensure a fair distribution of costs and benefits, for example by

    varying demands on developed and developing countries, or by offering

    poorer countries financial aid and technology transfer

    - strong but acceptable non-compliance mechanisms that use carrots, like

    free advice or financial aid, as well as sticks like the suspension of voting

    rights or even trade sanctions

    - a robust institutional structure, including a well-managed secretariat,

    routine meetings of member governments, mechanisms for monitoring

    compliance and harmonised data collection.

    Nonetheless, it is increasingly recognised that the direct effect of these

    formal rules is only one element among many that decide how effective aregime will prove.

    Do international environmental

    regimes work?

    1 2 3 4 58

    Empirical studies

    have shown that

    the success of regi mes,

    although hard to

    measure, varies

    greatly.

    Box 1 : Common cause

    Robin Churchill and Lynda Warren looked at the negotiation,

    implementation, impact and effectiveness of three sets of international

    agreements to protect the atmosphere. The pacts in question were the

    Vienna Convention and its linked Montreal Protocol on protection of the

    ozone layer, the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution

    (LRTAP), and the EU Large Combustion Plants Directive.

    The study revealed that the content of international air pollution

    agreements is steered mainly by political and economic (as distinct from

    scientific) factors. It usually represents what States have already achieved

    or expect to achieve, so requires few new actions. This self-interested

    agenda explains the high degree of compliance with the Montreal Protocol

    and the first three protocols of the LRTAP Convention. In the absence of

    scientific or political consensus a sensible way to proceed is by concludinga framework treaty that provides for later adoption of more specific

    measures. The study also found more states are likely to participate if the

    agreement contains differentiated obligations, whereby richer states are

    assigned greater responsibilities to take action than poorer states. The

    drawback to such exceptions is that they sometimes mean weakening the

    agreement.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

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    Other soft factors can also play a crucial role. Regimes can not only give

    material incentives for co-operation, but also shape the way those who

    implement them define their interests. For example, they can choose to gain

    long-term political credibility by committing themselves to ambitious

    environmental policies, rather than trying to maximise short-term financial

    benefits. Regimes have also helped build trust between governments and

    bolstered their capacity to carry out effective policies. Though not always

    tangible, a potential for extra social learning can be built into such

    processes. These include:

    - procedures for revising regime procedures and commitments

    - implementation of review processes that identify and help countries finding

    it difficult to fulfil their obligations

    - transparent monitoring rules and conflict mediation processes to help

    build trust

    - bodies providing scientific, technical and economic advice on request.

    Do international environmental

    regimes work?

    1 2 3 4 5 9

    Box 2: Policing global pacts

    Philippe Sands and James Cameron looked into mechanisms for securing

    compliance to international environmental agreements such as the

    Montreal Protocol, the Climate Change Convention and the International

    Whaling Convention. Their research revealed that agreements must have

    procedures that anticipate the full range of behaviour of countries with

    diverse interests and varying levels of economic development.

    Mechanisms for the transfer of technologies, the provision of financial

    resources and for transparent reporting seem essential to encourage

    compliance on the part of all parties.

    Sands and Cameron also found that traditional means of settling

    disputes through bilateral, or formal judicial or arbitration proceedings are

    rarely if ever invoked. However, alternative non-compliance procedures

    are being developed that take a more consultative approach and helpcountries that find it hard to meet their obligations. On the other hand, to

    adopt an entirely soft approach is to risk weakening international legal

    ties. The research therefore argues for procedures that identify and put

    pressure on states that are capable of complying, but reluctant to act.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

    T he success of regi mes

    cannot be attributedto any single factor,

    but some common

    el ements tend to

    mak e regimes

    work better.

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    Two key lessons arise from GECP research into the effectiveness of

    environmental regimes:

    Structures and rules of international environmental regimes should not only

    advance the formal aims of the regime, but also seek added gain in terms

    of trust, capacity building and social learning.

    Tell-tale qualities of effective regimes are flexibil ity and a capacity to adapt

    institutions, rules and procedures, but without losing sight of the overall

    objective.

    Do international environmental

    regimes work?

    1 2 3 4 510

    Box 3: Compliance check-ups

    Owen Greene and Julian Salt probed into how environmental and arms

    control agreements have tackled tasks like verification and monitoring of

    agreed measures. What lessons, they asked, might these experiences

    hold for verification and monitoring of national greenhouse gas emission

    controls under the climate change convention? They found that

    implementation review processes have important soft effects, which

    include:

    - helping treaty Parties and other stakeholders to learn about and fix

    implementation problems

    - building confidence

    - adapting emission control regimes to changing conditions.

    Verifying emissions of greenhouse gases is never an easy matter. Greene

    and Salt propose new ways to identify and employ suitable proxy agencies

    to improve verifiability, linked to guidelines for preparing national

    inventories produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Subsequent international negotiations reflected the gist of these GECP

    findings.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

    Soft factors

    can play a

    crucial role for

    the success of

    the regime.

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    Sustainable development s headline message is that long-term

    environmental stability, poverty relief and economic development can

    and should be mutual goals. This concept represents a significant

    advance on the debates of the 1970s and 1980s, when environmental

    protection and economic development were often regarded as conflicting

    aims. Many observers in industrialised nations accused the developing

    world of over-exploiting vital global resources through deforestation and

    other drastic forms of resource depletion.

    Developing countries, for their part, eyed environmental policies warily as a

    threat to their economic development options. In their view, industrialised

    countries were to blame for most environmental problems, and it washypocritical of them to expect to deny poorer countries the right to pursue

    the same level of industrial development.

    Social justice and environmental protection might not always be compatible,

    but the concept of sustainability requires policy for global environmental

    security to embrace principles of fairness at the same time as spurring

    economic prosperity. This agenda is a moral imperative in a world blighted

    by poverty. But it is also a precondition for any successful co-operation

    between North and South, for only agreements that are seen as fair will win

    all-round participation.

    General acceptance of the legitimate social priorities of poor countries doesnot define a fair international agreement. Negotiations at Rio over a draft

    climate change convention bore striking witness to ways in which

    fundamental questions of justice translate into practical political questions,

    such as: How should we establish what levels of carbon a country can

    release to the atmosphere? Should we aim for similar levels of emissions

    per head of population or for equal cuts in all countries? Should

    industrialised countries be called to account for historic emissions over

    the past 100 years or more?

    Who governs the global environment? 1 2 3 4 5 11

    How fair are internationalenvironmental regimes?2

    Industrialised countries

    are responsible for a

    large part of existing

    environmental problems

    and they are also better

    placed to advance

    solutions.

    But production and

    consumption in

    developing countries

    have increasing

    environmental impact.

    Do international

    agreements take these

    distinctive

    responsibilities and

    capabilities into

    account?

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    No widely accepted scale of values exists to help answer these questions.

    Instead, the carbon emission targets agreed at the climate conference in

    Kyoto were pieced together from a mix of environmental concerns, politicalpressures, economic interests, ethical considerations, and scientific advice.

    How fair are international

    environmental regimes?

    1 2 3 4 512

    Box 4 : Intergenerational contract

    Andrew Dobson reviewed the links between social justice and

    environmental sustainability to track the evolution and connections

    between these two widely cherished concepts. He used the resulting

    typologies to assess how far concepts of justice can be reconciled with

    those of sustainability. Results of Dobson s study showed that while

    common ground can be found between these two sets of ideas and

    traditions, it is by no means as extensive as many advocates of

    sustainable development suppose.

    The study offers a framework for thinking about justice and sustainability.

    Policymakers have to sett le tough either/ or choices between

    environmental sustainability and social justice. For instance, what is the

    impact on the poor of an energy tax? The greatest promise of a truce

    between sustainability and justice lies not so much between protagonists

    for one or the other within the present generation, as between present

    and future generations. This special between generations case rests on

    the premise that what is being sustained is also what is being shared out,

    a link that is often missing from the debate over struggles for justice and

    fair shares within a generation.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

    Box 5: What the public sees

    Graham Chapman, Ivor Gaber and Keval Kumar investigated how the

    public perceives environmental issues in India and in the UK, and how

    mass media coverage shapes these perceptions. They systemat ically

    recorded and analysed the content of newspapers, radio and TV

    programmes in both countries for six weeks during 1993. They also

    interviewed journalists and ran focus groups to gauge the public reaction

    to broadcast material.

    For the British public, environmental problems happen elsewhere, often

    in developing or former Eastern bloc countries. The roots of

    environmentalism in the Northern media are in the speeches of

    politicians, lobbying on the part of the scientific community, and in

    appealing images of wildlife on TV. Environmental concern in India stems

    from immediate anxieties such as drought and famine. Environmental

    stories are presented in terms of their relationship to development.

    Environmentalism for its own sake is strong only among a tiny English-

    speaking elite. For most Indians, the West s global environmental

    concerns are seen as a new breed of colonialism. The notion that there

    is one world is remote in both countries.

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    .ac

    .uk

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    Some environmental regimes offer incentives for the transfer of clean

    technologies to the South, financial aid or differential sets of obligations.

    For example, the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances imposesstricter obligations for developed than for developing countries. It also

    established a multilateral fund to compensate developing countries for

    complying with the protocol so no country is made worse off by joining than

    by remaining outside. On the other hand, these mechanisms have proved

    hard to apply and so far their effects are mixed.

    Past experience with fairness mechanisms in international regimes therefore

    suggests that current instruments only have a very limited effect.

    The following general lessons can be drawn:

    - International regimes should make use of instruments such as technology

    transfer, green aid and differentiated obligations to spread the load. Thereis a need to take account of wider issues such as debt, trade relations and

    the representation of southern interests in international fora.

    - As the environmental impact of developing countries grows, the co-

    operation of North and South in environmental regimes becomes more vital.

    Stringent global agreements will only be reached if they address social and

    economic development in the South more effectively.

    How fair are international environmental

    regimes?

    1 2 3 4 5 13

    Box 6 : In from t he cold

    Malcolm Hill examined the potential for using transfer of cleaner

    technologies to reduce pollution in the former Soviet Union. Hisinvestigations revealed that a strong trend in favour of using natural gas

    for power generation has reduced emissions, especially in European

    Russia where they were affecting nearby parts of Western Europe.

    Most coal-fired power stations in the former Soviet Union are too old to

    justify high levels of investment in emission control equipment.

    Opportunities for reducing emissions therefore arise mostly when new

    power stations are being constructed. Nevertheless, building new

    efficient power stations would remove heat that is currently brought to

    homes and could leave needy people literally out in the cold. Another

    barrier to technology transfer could be that power-engineering factories

    face serious threats to business survival. It follows that potential for

    technology transfer in Russia s electricity sector could be lower thanpreviously assumed.

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    .gecko.ac.uk

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    By and large, international environmental regimes function in isolation

    from other policy regimes that leverage major ecological impacts,

    not least international trade policy.

    Two principal concerns arise:

    - Will the increasingly free international flow of goods, investment and

    services undermine national environmental policies?

    - Could a dominant global trading system override international

    environmental treaties?

    Global trade liberalisation may allow companies to gain competitive

    advantage by relocating production sites to less regulated countries -pollution havens - then selling their products to countries with stricter

    environmental policies. This loophole could dissuade governments from

    taking environmental measures and even prompt a perverse race to the

    bottom as countries remove safeguards in an effort to attract investment.

    Unless countries were barred from preventing movements of dirty goods,

    national environmental policies could have the effect of displacing polluting

    activities into other parts of the world, instead of curbing them.

    A clash of imperatives between trade systems and environment instruments

    can be prevented if trade systems and environmental agreements are

    integrated from the outset. Nonetheless, environmental provisos in

    international trade agreements must not be abused to camouflage trade

    barriers, especially if they are used to deny market access to developing

    countries. Measures designed to have a combined effect on trade, as well

    as on environmental protection, such as subsidy cuts for harmful

    agricultural practices, should be stepped up and toughened.

    Who governs the global environment?1 2 3 4 514

    Can environmental andtrade objectives be betterintegrated?3

    Does trade undermine

    environmental

    policies?

    How can trade and

    environmental regimes

    be better integrated?

    Who should decide if

    products are safe and

    environmentally

    friendly enough to be

    traded internationally?

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    This and other GECP research shows that the potential for ecological

    dumping depends on specific conditions in countries, sectors and

    companies. The environmental impact of international trade should not beexaggerated, but can give grounds for serious concern.

    Trade agreements that aim to encourage the exchange of goods and

    services between countries, such as the trading system of the World Trade

    Organisation (WTO), still largely ignore environmental and social imperatives.

    This can blunt the impact of national and international environmental

    policies.

    Can environmental and trade objectives

    be better integrated?

    1 2 3 4 5 15

    Box 7: Does greening hurt?

    Alistair Ulph focused fresh scrutiny on research literature supporting the

    argument that environmental policy has little impact on trade habits or

    structures. This argument is based on an assumption that markets for

    international trade are competitive. But that is not always the case.

    By extending computer models of trade with imperfect competition, to

    include environmental policies, Ulph studied the likely effects on the

    chemical industry if Europe unilaterally introduced an energy tax. In this

    scenario, a relat ively modest energy tax rate would force Europe s basic

    chemicals industry to close down, partly on account of higher costs,

    partly through knock-on relocation of suppliers between countries.

    The study concludes that under conditions where competition is

    imperfect, governments will seek to manipulate their environmentalpolicies for strategic trading reasons. If even only slightly more stringent

    policies are put in place, the change can wipe out a countrys industrial

    base in some sectors. According to the research, however, the

    uncertainties and risks involved mean that no simplistic prediction can

    help governments decide which instrument to choose, and policy-makers

    should tread with care.

    ww

    w.gecko.ac.uk

    Box 8: Trading at cross-purposes

    Work by Alyson Warhurst marshals evidence that economic globalisationcan create positive environmental effects. Warhurst examined the

    international mining and mineral processing industry to find out whether

    clean technology transfer is happening, and how barriers to transfer can

    be removed. Her main finding was that foreign direct investment in

    developing countries can encourage the diffusion of clean technology,

    especially against a background of privatisation, liberalisation and

    strategic alliances. Rather than taking advantage of lower environmental

    standards in developing countries, large firms studied sought commercial

    advantages by transferring environmentally advanced technologies. They

    did so with a view to fast returns and, as a result, sometimes exceeded

    regulatory requirements.

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    w.gecko.ac.uk

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    Steps to establish a clearer distinction between environmental requirements

    that are legitimate, and requirements that mask unfair trade barriers have

    been called for by many commentators. The North American Free TradeAgreement (NAFTA) made some effort to respond to such calls. The questions

    of who makes international environmental rules, and on what basis, are also

    troubling. In some cases, WTO rules and international environmental

    agreements collide head-on. For example, a UN protocol intended to regulate

    the trade of genetically modified organisms under the biodiversity convention

    was stuck for a long time because some countries argue that the protocol

    would not comply with WTO rules on free trade.

    The relationship between environmental agreements and trade agreements

    needs to be clarified. Free trade need not clash with legitimate environmental

    regulations at international level. Decisions in both realms should to be based

    on scientific assessments that take responsible account of the risks

    associated with new technologies and exercise precaution.

    The following key lessons can be drawn:

    - International trade can undermine national and environmental policies.

    This can be prevented if trade systems and environmental agreements

    become better integrated.

    - Environmental mechanisms in trade agreements must not be abused as

    trade barriers, especially to deny market access for developing countries.

    - Measures that address trade as well as environmental issues, for example

    reducing subsidies for ecologically harmful agricultural practices, should be

    implemented more vigorously.

    Can environmental and trade objectives

    be better integrated?

    1 2 3 4 516

    Box 9: Better safe than sorry

    Brian Wynne, Andy Stirling, Chris Williams and other GECP researchers

    have questioned the role of science in the decision-making process.

    Science has been given a lead role in mediating disputes about the safety

    and environmental impact of traded goods, such as GM food and meat

    produced with the use of hormones. Research suggests that WTO will

    need to be both more rigorous and more precautionary in its use of

    regulatory science in order to address the controversy about its decisions.

    Orthodox risk assessments based on the balance of probabilities play a

    big part in WTO rulings on the safety of new products. Yet such

    assessments can only characterise some of the potential outcomes of

    using new products. Precautionary approaches should be favoured over

    tests of probability as they acknowledge our incomplete knowledge of

    potential outcomes, and do not assume new products are safe till proven

    otherwise. Trade rules should acknowledge that scienti fic enquiry does not

    always produce single answers, and that environmental and health

    concerns must be met if the advantages of free trade are to last.

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    Global environmental regimes in which national governments co-

    operate to meet shared objectives are not the only response to

    apparently global problems. So far their success has proven

    limited. As a form of global governance without global government , regimes

    rely on voluntary action by countries. At the same time, examples of

    regional environmental regimes and local adaptation to environmental

    change suggest that the global is not always the best level for action.

    This recognition of many levels of governance reflects a perception that

    government is becoming more dispersed. The capacity of national

    governments to exercise power is being transformed. Local, regional and

    international institutions have gained prominence, as have independentagencies and NGOs. This reflects wider trends in free societies, but is also

    an acknowledgement that increasingly complex political, economic and

    social systems cannot be governed from a single level.

    Regional environmental regimes, defined by geographical features like seas

    and river catchments rather than by political borders, may offer greater

    opportunities to tackle problems at the appropriate level. They pay closer

    attention to regional conditions and line up the formulation of policy

    measures with the capacity to implement them. Regional international co-

    operation is not new, but could provide a strong model for effective

    collaboration in the future.

    Who governs the global environment? 1 2 3 4 5 17

    Do global issues alwayscall for global action?4

    Global regimes do not

    always achieve

    worthwhile goals.

    Is local action likely to

    be more efficient, fair

    and apt to reconcile

    different interests?

    Are regional

    environmental regimes

    a better alternative?

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    Impacts of environmental change on natural and social systems form the

    subject of much recent research. There has been a shift away from studying

    physical impacts and physical vulnerability, such as the impact of flooding

    on crops, to a more integrated understanding of natural risks, and social

    and economic strategies for coping with them. This stems from earlier

    findings that environmental crises are often not so much caused by natural

    events as by political or socio-economic wrong turns. Examples are

    inappropriate government policies, inequitable distribution of incomes and

    land and inappropriate resource management. Such misjudgements,

    distortions and omissions appear to be the main causes of the vulnerability

    of people to environmental change.

    Research aimed at disentangling the links between natural and social

    systems has revealed that connections between, for example, climatic

    conditions and agricultural practices are far more complex than previously

    thought. They are best understood through concepts such as vulnerability

    and adaptive capacity. Nurturing local capacity to cope with environmentalchange and disasters is often a more effective policy response than

    providing for international crisis relief after the event. Such capacity will be a

    vital item in the responses that will enable present and future generations

    to adjust to the impacts of climate change and other long-range

    environmental threats.

    Do global issues always call for

    global action?

    1 2 3 4 518

    Box 10: Pole positions

    Research by Clive Archer and David Scrivener examined how mounting

    concerns over environmental degradation in the Arctic region translated

    into new frameworks for environmental co-operation, such as the

    International Arctic Science Committee and the Arctic Environmental

    Protection Strategy. They found these frameworks were mutually reinforcing

    and showed how regional co-operation was made possible by improving

    East-West political relations. On the other hand, competition between

    these bodies arose for lack of political leadership to steer Arctic co-

    operation. So far neither framework has had much impact on the region s

    environmental problems. There is, moreover, little evidence that they have

    significantly altered the internal policies of Arctic states.

    Even so, they have achieved more than many expected. For example,

    science into problems such as the radioactive contamination of the

    Western Russian Arctic is being co-ordinated regionally. Fresh attention

    has been brought to the Arctic, bolstering the capacity of governments to

    play an informed role in environmental management.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

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    Key lessons about the relationship between environmental problems and

    the level at which action should be taken include:

    - International policymaking is not the only way in which environmental

    damage can be remedied. There is often a need to help people adapt tochange. The challenge is to identify the right level of action.

    - Before being tackled globally , environmental problems need to be

    carefully scrutinised. Are the symptoms of the problem global or only

    transboundary? Are the causes global or local? Are the effects natural or

    the upshot of human decisions and actions?

    Do global issues always call for

    global action?

    1 2 3 4 5 19

    Box 11: Vulnerable in Vietnam

    Neil Adger and Mick Kelly modelled the likely effects of climate change on

    lives and livelihoods in northern Vietnam, against a backdrop of

    economic transition. They developed a concept labelled social

    vulnerability. For the individual, social vulnerability is primarily determined

    by access to resources. At a collective level it is shaped more by

    institutional and political factors.

    Various lessons emerged. Policy measures to reduce vulnerability should

    clearly set their sights on poverty reduction as a clear-cut priority. Risk-

    spreading through income diversification can be promoted in a number of

    ways. In northern Vietnam, as elsewhere, loss of rights to commonly-held

    resources, such as fisheries, and the inefficiency of outmoded forms of

    collective action make communities more vulnerable.

    At a deeper level, inequitable distribution of resources leads to greater

    vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change. Alternative resource use

    strategies, such as mangrove rehabilitation, would help meet current

    development needs, as well as reducing longer-term impacts.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

    T he abi l i ty to cope

    wi th envi ronmental

    change i s best

    devel oped at

    the local level.

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    Implementing environmental policies is assigned to an increasingly

    complex array of interests, ways and means. Different levels of

    governance interact and a miscellany of interests competes for a lead

    role in the policy process. The traditional perception of international policy

    as an inter-state system in which sovereign governments negotiate without

    giving way to supranational authority seems inadequate to describe the

    types of governance that are now emerging.

    It is also clear that a shift to a powerful global government is not realistic.

    Global governance is (and will largely remain) governance without a central

    power hierarchy able to impose its will. For a number of political, socio-

    economic and technological reasons, the cast of players has increased,

    most visibly in the growing influence of NGOs. International regimes have

    contributed much to this process.

    The effectiveness and legitimacy of international environmental regimes

    depends on how different levels of policy-making interact with one another.

    Yet understanding of this process is still at an early stage. Interaction varies

    from case to case. No general model of multi-level governance exists.

    The flow of responsibility and authority is specific to the regime in question,

    evoking a new politics and a new set of mechanisms every time.

    Relations between richer and poorer countries have to be negotiated

    anew at every turn.

    Who governs the global environment?1 2 3 4 520

    How can policy beorchestrated for manyplayers at many levels?5

    If environmental

    decision-making is

    becoming more

    dispersed, there is a

    risk of confusion and

    loss of momentum.

    How can mult i-level

    governance be made

    to work?

    What is the role of

    governments, and of

    other stakeholders

    such as businesses,

    citizens, local

    authorities and interest

    groups?

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    Regimes still provide an important focus for analysis, but organisations

    (including business) not formally part of them can also play a significant

    role. Viewed in this way, regimes provide a basis for alliances, rather than

    defining standard solutions. The same policy formulae are not always

    appropriate for national or local circumstances. For example, Western

    climate policies would not always be appropriate for developing countries.

    How can policy be orchestrated for many

    players at many levels?

    1 2 3 4 5 21

    Box 12: Strategy samba

    A study by Jacqueline Roddick examined the involvement of the Latin

    American region in the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, with a focus on Brazil,

    Colombia and Costa Rica. Roddick found that the Rio conference

    strengthened NGOs in the countries studied and helped bring them

    together. Increased NGO involvement has also been part of a wider

    process of democratisation and decentralisation.

    In Colombia and Costa Rica, for example, new regulatory controls and

    economic incentives have been created, as well as new arrangements

    such as Sustainable Development Commissions. In Brazil, international

    pressure and local support for the concepts such as eco-development

    contributed to pioneering local experiments in urban sustainable

    development, despite fierce social tensions. The research highlightsthe fundamental effects international regimes can have on political

    structures, institutions and instruments within countries.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

    Box 1 3 : Thinking regionally

    Philip Lowe and Stephen Ward analysed how UK environmental policy

    changed through Britain s membership of the European Community.

    Their study showed how Britain s previously fragmented and pragmatic

    approach to environmental problems has been modified by the weight of

    EU directives and resulting systematic legal frameworks. As a result,much of the UKs highly flexible style of regulation has been codified

    and made subject to legally defined standards, whilst the government

    has been obliged to crystallise and formalise national policy.

    European integration has also led to higher standards of protection

    being adopted in the UK in all sub-sectors of environmental policy.

    Lowe and Ward also observed that influence has been a two-way process.

    The main British contributions to European environmental policy have

    tended to be procedural rather than substantive, such as waste

    management plans, environmental auditing and integrated pollut ion

    control. The researchers conclude that British environmental policy and

    politics can no longer be understood outside their European context.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

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    A number of key lessons emerge from these findings:

    - Because decisions are taken in complex relationships between different

    agents of policy, governments have become nodes for communication and

    decision-making, constantly interacting with concerned groups.

    - Before the efficiency of links between levels can be improved, policy-

    makers have to acknowledge the need for complex processes of bargaining

    involving several policy areas at once. Barriers to co-operation and

    questions of competency, transparency and legitimacy need to be

    recognised and overcome.

    How can policy be orchestrated for

    many players at many levels?

    1 2 3 4 522

    Box 14: A new policy climate

    Andrew Jordan and Tim O Riordan studied the pathways by which

    international agreements are implemented in national contexts. By cross-

    matching theories of international relations with theories of domestic

    public policy they analysed the politics surrounding the implementation of

    the climate change and ozone depletion conventions. Using case studies

    of UK and other EU Member States, Jordan and ORiordan tracked how

    international policy continues to be made and then re-made through the

    domestic implementation process.

    Across all the states studied, national practices and traditions affected

    (and in turn were affected by) the international agreement in question.

    The study concludes that policy stakeholders need to view international

    policymaking as an ongoing, multi-level challenge. It also underlines theneed for academics to study policies throughout their full life cycle, from

    initiation to final implementation.

    www.gecko.ac.uk

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    Experience over the past ten years of research has shown that

    international regimes can make a useful contribution to mobilising

    people and political institutions to cope with global environmental

    change. However, we must remain realistic about their limitations. In order

    to make these institutions more effective, we must deal with a number of

    potential weaknesses.

    For example, ways have to be found to integrate agreements and policies

    across different areas such as forests, climate protection and biodiversity.

    In the future greater success may be achieved by combining these domains

    of environmental action within unified regimes at a regional, rather than a

    global, level. Environment and development imperatives have to bereconciled in more comprehensible ways if poorer countries are to be

    encouraged to co-operate. Even though global agreements can be improved,

    research has emphasised the need to widen their focus so they make

    sense in the context of local, regional and national levels of governance.

    This conclusion, however, raises awkward issues. One of tomorrows big

    new challenges will be to manage the linkages between levels, for example

    between global environmental regimes, national governments and local

    communities. Yet the new pluralism raises questions about the legitimacy of

    the political influence of NGOs, corporations and other groups. New

    processes will have to be developed that ensure that these more complex

    processes of environmental governance also become more transparent and

    accountable.

    Who governs the global environment? 1 2 3 4 5 23

    Unansweredquestions

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    Box 8: Trading at cross-purposes

    Warhurst A (1999) Technology Transfer and the

    Diffusion of Clean Technology: Public Policy and

    Corporate Strategy. CRC Press: Florida.

    Box 9: Better safe than sorry

    Andy Stirling (1999) On Science and Precaution in the

    Management of Technological Risk. Final Report of a

    project for the EC Forward Studies Unit under the

    auspices of the ESTO Network.

    Alister Scott, Andy Stirling, Nick Mabey, Frans Berkhout,

    Chris Williams, Chris Rose, Michael Jacobs, Robin

    Grove-White, Ian Scoones, Melissa Leach (1999)

    Precautionary Approach to Risk Assessment , Nature

    Vol 402, p. 348.

    Box 10: Pole positions

    Scrivener D (1995) Environmental Co-operation in the

    Euro-Arctic. Environmental Polit ics, Vol 4 No 2, Frank

    Cass: London, pp. 320-327.

    Box 11: Vulnerable in Vietnam

    Adger WN (1999) Social Vulnerability to Climate Change

    and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam. World Development,

    Vol 27 No 2.

    Box 12: Strategy samba

    Roddick J (1997) Earth Summit North and South:

    Building a Safe House in the Winds of Change. Global

    Environmental Change, Vol 7 No 2, pp. 147-165.

    Box 13: Thinking regionally

    Lowe P and Ward S (1998) British Environmental Policy

    and Europe: Politics and Policy in Transition. Routledge:

    London.

    Box 14: A new policy climate

    Jordan AJ (1998) The Ozone Endgame: The

    Implementation of the Montreal Protocol in the UK.

    Environmental Politics, 7, 4, pp. 23-52.

    Box 1: Common cause

    Churchill R and Kutting G (1994) International

    Environmental Agreements and the Free Movement of

    Goods in the EC: The Case of the Montreal Protocol.

    European Environmental Law Review, Vol 3,

    pp. 329-335.

    Churchill R, Kutting G and Warren L (1995)

    The 1994 UN ECE Sulphur Protocol . Journal of

    Environmental Law, Vol 7 No 2, Oxford University

    Press: Oxford, pp. 169-197.

    Box 2: Policing global pacts

    Cameron J, Werksman J, Roderick P (ed) (1996)

    Improving Compliance with International

    Environmental Law. Earthscan: London.

    Box 3: Compliance check-ups

    Greene O and Salt J (1993) Verification Issues in the

    Development of an Effective Climate Change

    Convention. World Resource Review, Vol 5 No 3,

    pp.271-285.

    Box 4 : I ntergenerational contract

    Dobson A (1998) Justice and the Environment.

    Oxford University Press.

    Dobson A (1996) Environmental Sustainabilities: An

    Analysis and a Typology. Environmental Politics, Vol 5

    No 3, pp. 401-428.

    Box 5 : What the public sees

    Anderson A and Gaber I (1993) The Road from Rio:

    the Causes of Environmental Antisappointment . In:

    Intermedia, Vol 21 No 6, pp. 27-29.

    Box 6: In from the coldHill MR (1997) Environment and Technology in the

    Former USSR : The Case of Acid Rain and Power

    Generation. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham.

    Environmental Economics, pp. 40-43.

    Box 7: Does greening hurt?

    Ulph, A M (1996) Environmental Policy and

    International trade when Government and Producers

    Act Strategically. Journal of Environmental Economics

    and Management, Vol 30(3), pp. 265-281.

    References1 2 3 4 524

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    Credits 1 2 3 4 5 25

    Text: Julia Hertin, Ian Scoones, Frans Berkhout

    Advice and comments: Louise Daniel, Andy Jordan, Robert Lamb,Tim O Riordan, Alister Scott, Jim Skea

    We would like to thank the members of the GEC advisory committees for

    very valuable advice:

    Dr Helen apSimon, Dr Janet Asherson, Professor Jacquie Burgess, Christine

    Drury, Ian Dwyer, Dr Paul Ekins, Nigel Gilbert, Dr Charlotte Grezo, Professor

    Robin Grove-White, Professor Alan Irwin, Peter Jones, Dr Andrew Jordan,

    Duncan McLaren, Dr Jane Metcalfe, Professor Tim ORiordan, Ronan Palmer,

    Professor Judith Petts, Nigel Riglar, Chris Rose, Bridget Rosewell, Richard

    Sandbrook, Dr Andrew Skinner, Professor Alistair Ulph, Professor John

    Vogler, Bernie Walsh, Professor Alan Warde, Professor John Whalley,

    Dr Stephen Young.

    Design: Michael Munday 01273 483560

    Print: APR Printing & Design Ltd

    The document should be referenced as:

    ESRC Global Environmental Change Programme (2000)

    Who Governs the Global Environment?

    University of Sussex, Brighton

    ISBN 0-903622-92-0

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    The Global Environment al Change Progr amme (GECP) is a

    ten-year research programme established to bring social science expertise

    to bear on environmental research with global implications. Supported by

    the Economic and Social Research Council, the Programme has run since

    1991. It has supported 150 empirical research projects, Fellowships and

    PhD studentships across the UK. The programme ends in June 2000.

    The findings of the GECP are presented in a set of documents covering

    three thematic areas:

    Risky Choices, Soft Disasters:

    environmental decision making under uncertainty

    Who Governs the Global Environment?

    Producing Greener, Consuming Smarter

    All three documents can be accessed and downloaded from the internet at

    www.gecko.ac.uk. The website also offers valuable links to researchers,

    project descriptions and further web resources.

    Until June 2000, when the programme ends, The Global Environmental

    Change Programme Office is at:

    Mantell Building, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9RF

    Tel: 01273 678935, fax: 01273 604483, email: [email protected]

    The website will remain at www.gecko.ac.uk.

    The Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) promotes and

    supports research in the social sciences. By advancing knowledge, the

    ESRC aims to contribute to the UKs economic competitiveness, the

    effectiveness of public services and the quality of life.

    For more information about the ESRC, visit the web site

    www.esrc.ac.uk or contact:

    External Relations Division,

    ESRC, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1UJ

    Tel: 01793-413122, fax 01793-413130.