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Acta Zoologica Lituanica, 2009, Volumen 19, Numerus 3

ISSN 1648-6919

Can ReCent StRategieS of BiRd diveRSity ConSeRvation Be

effeCtive in the 21St CentuRy in the faCe of inCReaSing

impaCt of gloBal Climate Change?

Mo alakeviius*, l RaudonikiS, G Bartkeviien

Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University, Akademijos 2, LT-08412, Vilnius-21, Lithuania

* Corresponding author; e-mail: zalakevicius@ekoi.lt

abc.This paper analyses the potential response of bird species preserved in special protected areas

(SPA) of Lithuania to climate change throughout the 21

st

century. The effectiveness of SPA territories inrecently existing system of their designation and related problems are discussed. The results of analysis

show that with withdrawal of the range in north-eastern direction 17 out of the 49 species protected

in Lithuanian SPAs and breeding on western, south-western and southern peripheries of entire species

range will be primarily affected and are likely to become extinct. The remaining 32 species with recent

populations on northern, north-eastern, eastern, north-western peripheries and central part of the species

range in Lithuania benet from climate warming and, most likely, will not get extinct. It is evident thatthroughout the 21st century due to climate change 1/3 of the protected species in 72 SPAs designated in

Lithuania will be at risk of extinction. AClimatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds (Huntley et al. 2007)

predicts extinction of eight more species in the territories of Lithuanian SPA. The model we have ap-

plied and our projection, however, fail to conrm this prediction. The analysis of the future prospects for SPA territories in the 21st century shows all qualifying species to potentially survive in 41 SPA out

of the 72 investigated. In four territories up to 1/4 of the qualifying species are likely to become extinct,

in 19 territories from 1/4 to 3/4 and in eight territories all qualifying species are at risk of extinction.

Accordingly, slightly over 60% of SPAs in Lithuania will remain functioning in the 21st century pro-vided that climate change proceeds at the forecasted rate. These changes reveal new urgent practical

problems at the science-policy interface. The nature conservation objectives recently formulated on the

assumption of climate stability must be replaced by the new working rules adapted to new changing

enviromental conditions. We must nd a new approach to threats faced by birds and a new vision oftheir protection, stressing the importance of the knowledge of the species-specic ecology of habitatselection, migratory status of breeding birds, the populations location within the entire species range

as well as trends and scope of the regional climate change for the development of effective measures

and ways for bird protection.

ky wod: climate change impact, bird diversity conservation, special protected areas (SPA)

IntroductIon

It is ascertained that global climate change is affecting

Earths ecosystems and their constituent parts habitats,

species, distribution ranges, population state, rich-

ness and composition of communities (Burton 1995;

Viksne 2000; Peterson et al. 2001; alakeviius &alakeviit 2001; Nikiforov 2003;Bhning-Gaese &Lemoine 2004; Parmesan 2005; Viksne et al. 2005;

alakeviius 1999, 2001, 2007; Zalakevicius et al. 2006;alakeviius et al. 2006; Newton 2003, 2008; Huntleyet al. 2007). The northern range boundaries of breed-

ing birds are limited by cold temperatures; the southern

range limit is determined by such climatic factors asheat or lack of water (Root 1988; Newton 2003, 2008;Bhning-Gaese & Lemoine 2004). In this connection,

tions of birds differs in different parts of the species

range (Timofeev-Resovskij et al. 1973; Krebs 1985;alakeviius 1999, 2001). The majority of birds breed-ing in the central part of the range or on its northern,

north-eastern and eastern periphery benet from climatewarming whereas the birds breeding on its southern,

south-western and western periphery lose (a decrease in

numbers of the latter species is observed). Populations

breeding on north-western periphery of species range

are likely to be attributed to those less threatened under

the impact of climate change.

Climate in the region has been changing considerably.

Since the 1970s, positive spring temperature deviations

have become dominant, and since 1988 positive springand summer temperature deviations have prevailed

(alakeviius et al. 2006). Mean spring temperature

DOI: 10.2478/v10043-009-0027-2

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173Can Recent Strategies of Bird Conservation be Effective in the 21st Century?

0.001 for 19722004. A similar pattern was observed in

summer temperatures: negative anomalies made up 58%

(22 out of 38) for 19501987 and positive anomaliesamounted to 65% (11 out of 17) for 19882004. Mean

summer temperature anomalies for 19501987 were

-0.3C, whereas for 19882004 they were +0.5C,p