envision 2040 - vbgov.com › government › departments › sga › envision... · 2016-02-05 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Envision 2040
Virginia Beach Projected Demographic Highlights As Presented by John Martin
at the July 22, 2011 Envision 2040 Meeting (Note: This is just one section of Mr. Martin’s overall presentation.)
Southeastern Institute of Research
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Technology
Cultural Trends
Demographic Trends
Virginia Beach 2040
Economic
Wildcards
World Events
Mr. Martin’s Entire Presentation Touched on Many Trends Shaping the Future of Virginia Beach
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Demographic Trends
This Presentation Deck Highlights the 5 Major Demographic Trends
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Shift #1
Increasing Population
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U.S. Population
250 Million
Source: U. S. Census
1990
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U.S. Population
307 Million
Source: U. S. Census
Today
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U.S. Population
341 Million
Source: U. S. Census
2020
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U.S. Population
400 Million
Source: U. S. Census
2040
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Golden
(Population)
Crescent
7 in 10 Virginians Now Live in the Golden Crescent
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8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
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8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
33% Growth
2010-2040
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2010
1.8 M
2020 2030
Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth
2040
1.7 M
2.0 M 2.2 M
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, US Census. The projections are computed by SIR and are based on the
US Census 2010 population and the Virginia population projected growth rate over 30-year period.
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2010
1.8 M
2020 2030
Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth
2040
1.7 M
2.0 M 2.2 M
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
29% Growth
2010-2040
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440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
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440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
20% Growth
2010-2040
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Virginia Beach 2040
Managing Growth
While Improving
Quality of Life
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17
More People = More Cars
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VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled
Potential Impacts Increase in congestion &
decrease in mobility and access.
Increase in air quality conformity.
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New Roads? Supply Will Not Keep Up with Demand
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Shift #2
Expanding Community Footprints
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Increasing Density
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Increase of
Exurbia Living
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Long-term Trend
Creation of New Cities
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Tysons Corner, Va. Total Development
2010:
25 Million sq. ft.
2050:
105 Million sq. ft.
Manhattan Today: 200,000 Million
Virginia Beach: 35 million square feet of total enclosed space.
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Virginia Beach 2040
Land Use
Planning Today Is
Critically Important to
Manage the “Fill In”
Shaping 2040
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Shift #3
Graying Population
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31% 33%
40%
44%
29% 27%
29%
20%
The World Is Getting Older
China France Germany India Brazil Japan U.K. U.S.
12%
23% 26%
7% 10%
30%
22%
18%
Percent Population 60+ 2010 2050
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division -- Ageing 2009
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2000
U.S. Population 65+
Source: US Census
11%
2030
19%
2020
16%
2010
13%
2040
20%
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2000
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using
U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s
projection using state-wide growth rate.
10%
2030
18%
2020
14%
2010
12%
2040
19%
Hampton Roads 65+
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2000
8%
2030
19%
2020
15%
2010
11%
2040
20%
Virginia Beach 65+
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using
U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s
projection using state-wide growth rate.
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2040 Virginia Beach
The New
Seniors Will
Help Shape
2040 Society
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Shift #4
Growing Diversity
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Shifting Racial Makeup
1990-2090 Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com
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Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
1990: 76% Caucasian
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Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
2000: 65% Caucasian
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Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
2050: 45% Caucasian
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Add browning
Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com
2090: 25% Caucasian
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8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year 2040
projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
33% Total Growth
from 2010 to 2040
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Virginia’s White Population
5,404,492
2010
5,954,509
2030
2010 to 2030 …
10% Growth in White Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
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Virginia’s Non-White Population
2,605,747
2010
3,870,510
2030
2010 to 2030….
49% Growth in Non-white Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
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Black or African American
1,628,716
2 ,069,710
Asian
423,144
782,629
Hispanic
530,708
995,545
American Indian/Alaska Native
23,179
22,626
2010
2030
2010
2030
2010
2030
+27%
+85%
+88%
21% of 2030 pop.
10% of 2030 pop.
8% of 2030 pop.
Virginia’s Non-White Population 2010-2030
2010
2030 -2%
<1% of 2030 pop.
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440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year
2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
20% Total Growth
from 2010 to 2040
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Virginia Beach’s White Population
296,670
2010
271,417
2030
2010 to 2030 …
9% Decrease in White Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Note: SIR double checked this
projected decrease as reported in VEC data.
Additional investigation is
recommended before this number is widely
disseminated.
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Virginia Beach’s Non-White Population
141,324
2010
221,678
2030
2010 to 2030….
57% Growth in Non-white Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
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City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population
2010 2020 2030 2040
65% 60%
55% 50%
Source: SIR computation based on Virginia Employment Commission/U.S. Census data.
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City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population
2010 2020 2030 2040
65% 60%
55% 50%
Around 2040, the Minority Will Become the Majority
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2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System
26,227
http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf
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2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System
26,227
http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf
53.1% Caucasian
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Generational Diversity
61% 19% Gen Y 4% 13%
White Hispanic Asian Black
62% 18% 6% 12%
73% 10% 4% 11%
80% 7% 4% 8%
Gen X
Boomers
Silent
Source: BIGresearch
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Today 80% of the Rapidly Expanding
Senior Population Is White
Source: Brookings Institution
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Source: Brookings Institution
2030 70% of Seniors
Will Still Be White
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National Journal
The Gray and the Brown
The Generational Mismatch
Ronald Brownstein
July 24, 2010
The next few slides come from this article.
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National Journal
Culture
Gap
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56% of Young People
(Under 18)
Today’s Generational Culture Gap
24 Points
80% of Seniors
Whites Represent . . .
Source: National Journal
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1980 1990 2000 2010
Calculations performed by the Census Bureau for National Journal
14
24 23
18
Generational Culture Gap
Source: National Journal
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Politics of the Issue
Resistant to Taxes
and Public Spending
Beyond
Transportation
Minority Population
Senior Population
Tends to View
Government
Education, Health,
and Social-welfare
Programs as Helpful
Support for Their
Children
Source: National Journal
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Politics of the Issue
62% Want Big
Government
Minority Population
Senior Population
62% Don’t Want Big
Government
Source: National Journal
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2030 Population
20% U.S. Population
Minority Youth
Senior Population
20% U.S. Population
Source: National Journal
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Source: US Census
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2040 Virginia Beach Population
Potentially More Seniors
Than Youth
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Virginia Beach 2040
Appreciation
of a Shared Destiny
Will Be Needed to
Support & Fund
the Youth
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Shift #5
Shifting Households
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U.S. - Life Expectancy
1900 47
2010 80
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33% increase since 1980
49 million
Americans
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The Young & the Old
About one in five adults ages 25 to 34 now live in a multi-
generational household.
So do one-in-five adults
ages 65 and older.
Source: U.S. Census
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Single Head of Household
One Person Household
One LESS Person Household
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Single Head of Household Is a Big Market
33% Source: Boomer Project analysis of BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions survey, December 2008
of All Households
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1970 2010
60% 60%
40% 40%
Percentage of College Degree
M F M F
Source: Dept. of Education
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51% of Today’s Workforce
Is Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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54% of All Accountant Jobs
Are Held by Females
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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51% of All Managerial and Professional Jobs Are
Held by Females
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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45% of All Associates in
Law Firms Are Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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33% of All Physicians in
America Are Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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1. Registered Nurses - Associate Degree (RN)
2. Home Health Aides - Short-term and/or HHA Certificate.
3. Customer Service Representatives - Moderate-term
4. Combined Food Preparation-Service Workers - Short-
term
5. Personal/Home Care Aides - Short-term
6. Retail Salespersons - Short-term
7. General Office Clerks - Short-term
8. Accountants/Auditors - Bachelors Degree
9. Nursing Aides (CNAs), Orderlies, Attendants
10.Postsecondary Teachers (College Level)
US Federal Job Projections 2008-2018
All but Two Already Dominated by Women
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Atlantic Monthly
“The End of Men” Google this article to learn about the
details behind this trend.
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VA Beach 2040
Economic and
Cultural Power
Shift to Women?