epri and the comprehensive modeling system d. alan hansen environment department

EPRI and the Comprehensive Modeling System

D. Alan Hansen

Environment Department

2 Copyright © 2004 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

It’s 1989 and EPRI is:

– Conducting its part of EMFS in Eastern United States

– Planning its part of SJVAQS/AUSPEX in CA

– Planning its part of LMOS in Upper Midwest

– Planning its part of SERON in Southeast

– Completed or planning visibility studies (SCENES, WHITEX, Dallas winter haze, Denver Brown Cloud)

– Developing or planning advanced plume models

– Developing or enhancing ADOM, RADM, LES and rainband models

– Supporting numerous studies of aqueous chemistry

• The first four all involved elaborate model development and evaluation activities.

• All this was being done through several unrelated projects.


Question:

“How do we tie all this together into an integrated research enterprise?”


Answer

• Form a consortium

– public and private research organizations

• Develop and support a Comprehensive Modeling System

– provide integrative framework for the science and modeling technology emerging from these studies

– would be rigorously evaluated using the field study data• characterize modeling uncertainty

• identify further research needs to improve model reliability and capability.


CMS Attributes

• suitable and acceptable for regulatory applications

• accessible to all participating organizations

• able to simulate key atmospheric processes influencing the issues under study so that optimal solutions to multiple, interacting problems can, in principle, be found

• modular to facilitate ready understanding of model structure and upgrading of process representations and other programmed components

• easily readable code and self-documenting

• menu driven so that non-experts can use them


CMA Attributes, continued

• able to access on-line data sets necessary for model input and evaluation

• able to display output data in graphical, geographical, and other symbolic forms to facilitate interpretation and communication of results

• exercisable in distributed, heterogeneous computing environments, wherein any reasonable number of advanced computers can work on the problem simultaneously, efficiently and speedily

Source: Hansen, D.A., Dennis, R.L., Ebel, A., Hanna, S., Kaye, J., and Thuillier, R., Feb-94. “CAMRAQ: the Quest for Modern Solutions to Regional Air Quality Problems”. Environ. Sci. Technol.28:70A-77A


Implementation Steps

1. Visit modeling groups and supercomputer centers to better understand problems, needs and capabilities.

2. Write a concept paper explaining the motivation, approach, attributes and expected benefits of a collaborative CMS (initially a “Complete Modeling System”, later a “Comprehensive Modeling System).[OH1]

3. Gain internal support by creating a project, the Tropospheric Model Development and Evaluation project and getting it approved by EPRI advisors.1. Not unanimous advisory approval2. Raised questions: Why should EPRI take on something

that really is government responsibility? How can I personally use this?

4. Travel the continent drumming up support, including meeting with Mssrs. Rosenberg and Pruess of OAR.


Implementation Steps, continued

5. Hold two workshopsa. Organizations developing and evaluating models and their

contractors to discuss research needs and collaborative approaches

b. Modelers and computer scientists to familiarize each other with needs and capabilities

6. Sign Memorandum of Understanding forming CAMRAQ7. Secure consortium funding, a long, hard process.8. Hire a coordinator and hold quarterly planning meetings.9. Select design contractor.10. Draft a detailed blueprint for a CMS and its supporting

infrastructure 11. Develop a prototype CMS.12. Develop version 1 CMS.


Making a Long Story Short

• Final step never implemented:

Erosion of internal support due to

• insufficient collaborative funding,

• lack of buy-in by public and private agencies (culture of “doing their own thing”),

• EPRI advisor interest waning, and

• anticipated availability of Models-3.


CMAS Organization and Flow Diagram

User/DeveloperCommunity

Univ.

Gov. Labs

Res. Inst.

Consult.

...

...

...

ExecutiveCommittee

EV

AL

UA

TIO

N A

ND

AC

CE

PT

AN

CE

CMAS STAFF

OFFICIALVERSION

OFCMAS

Advisory Group

States,Provinces

RegulatoryConfiguration

Reviewand

Acceptance

User/OperationalModeling

Community

Univ.

Gov. Labs

Res. Inst.

Consult.

LocalAgencies

Technology

Flow

(Annual

Congress)

Updates

Model Distribution

Infrastructure

Superstructure

Decision Nodes

Model Distribution

New

Feedback at Annual Congress

Regulatory Agencies

User/DeveloperCommunity

Univ.

Gov. Labs

Res. Inst.

Consult.

...

...

...

Univ.

Gov. Labs

Res. Inst.

Consult.

...

...

...

ExecutiveCommittee

EV

AL

UA

TIO

N A

ND

AC

CE

PT

AN

CE

CMAS STAFF

OFFICIALVERSION

OFCMAS

Advisory Group

States,Provinces

RegulatoryConfiguration

Reviewand

Acceptance

User/OperationalModeling

Community

Univ.

Gov. Labs

Res. Inst.

Consult.

LocalAgencies

Technology

Flow

(Annual

Congress)

Updates

Model Distribution

Infrastructure

Superstructure

Decision Nodes

Model Distribution

New

Feedback at Annual Congress

Regulatory Agencies


Possible new directions or emphases for CMAS/EPA

• More interagency collaboration:

– WRF and AQ forecasting steps in right direction.

– Need to demonstrate value of Models-3 to other agencies and gain their financial support for CMAS

• Continue push to make Models-3 a truly multi-media modeling system

• Regrid CMAQ with geocentric coordinate system with global domain and inclusion of stratosphere.

• Incorporate adaptive gridding into CMAQ and met driver. Adjust physics to be compatible with adaptive gridding.

• Include analyzed satellite data for 4DDA nudging of met driver.

• Develop capability for chemical 4DDA in CMAQ.


Possible new directions or emphases for CMAS/EPA, continued

• Implementation on Terra-grid (?) for

– developing annual NOx/SOx/VOC response surfaces for selected grid cells across North America for ozone and PM.

– implementing detailed process analyses for more thorough diagnostic evaluation.

– exploring differences in ozone production efficiency using CMAQ-APT with many point sources and many puffs to resolve plume structure.

epri and the comprehensive modeling system d. alan hansen environment department

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