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EPSSim User Guide Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

Versions 2.9b and 2.9c

PART ONE Practising EPSSim

PART TWO Practical Exercises

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1PART ONE

EPSSim User Guide

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model (Versions 2.9b and 2.9c)

PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

© UNESCO 2012All rights reserved

The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expres sion of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its fron-tiers or boundaries.

The authors are responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in this book and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the organi zation.

Editing: Gwang-Choi Chang, Raphaëlle Martínez Lattanzio, Kate Glazebrook, Rachel McCarthy Design/Layout: Warren FieldFront cover photo: © Jenny Solomon / Dreamstime.com

TH/HQ/13/007-E

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1

EPSSim User GuideThis User Guide is the result of collaborative work among UNESCO staff (including former colleagues) at both UNESCO Paris and UNESCO Bangkok. The idea of a practical user guide for EPSSim came from Hilaire Mputu (Paris) who, based on his experience, identified need for more hands-on guidance to potential users of EPSSim. Under his supervision, Ji-Eun Chung (Paris) prepared an initial draft of the user guide, which was reviewed and further improved by Kate Glazebook (Bangkok). The present version of the guide has been finalized under the responsibility of Raphaëlle Martinez Lattanzio (Paris) in cooperation with Rachel McCarthy (Bangkok). Gwang-Chol Chang (Bangkok) provided guidance throughout the process.

Numerous colleagues provided advice and support in the drafting of this guide. They are, among others, Mathias Rwehera, Nyi Nyi Thaung and Satoko Yano.

This User Guide is a living document, which is meant to evolve and be further enriched based on the needs of users. We therefore welcome your feedback. Should you have any comments or questions on this guide and/or the EPSSim model, please contact:

[email protected] (Paris Team)

[email protected] (Bangkok Team)

mailto:[email protected]



CHAPTER 1: Simulation in Education Planning ...................................................................

1.1 Educational Simulation Models in Educational Policy Formulation and Planning .......... 2

1.2 Types of Simulation Models ......................................................................................... 4

1.3 Three Stages of Simulation .......................................................................................... 6

1.4 Developing Scenarios .................................................................................................. 9

CHAPTER 2: Starting EPSSim ................................................................................................

2.1 EPSSim as a Demographic Computer Simulation Model ............................................11

2.2 Installing EPSSim .......................................................................................................12

2.2a Enabling Macros and Setting Security Level for Excel 2003 ........................................13

2.2b Starting EPSSim for Excel 2007 Users ........................................................................15

2.3 Introduction to the Start Worksheet ..........................................................................17

CHAPTER 3: EPPSim 2.9B/2.9C Menu ..................................................................................

3.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................20

3.2 “What’s EPSSim?” Tab ..............................................................................................21

3.3 Population Data Tab ..................................................................................................22

3.4 Simulation/Projections Tab .........................................................................................25

3.5 Cost Projections Tab ..................................................................................................27

3.6 Additional Costing Tab ..............................................................................................33

3.7 Scenarios Tab ...........................................................................................................34

3.8 Technical Tips on EPSSim ...........................................................................................37

CHAPTER 4: EPSSim Utilities Menu ......................................................................................

4.1 Summaries Tab ..........................................................................................................41

4.2 View Charts ..............................................................................................................42

4.3 Extra Utilities .............................................................................................................44

CHAPTER 5: Customizing EPSSim ........................................................................................

5.1 The Structure of the Educational System ...................................................................49

5.2 Customizing Educational Staff ..................................................................................51

5.3 Choosing Education Indicators for Viewing Scenarios................................................52

5.4 MACROS ..................................................................................................................52

CONTENTS PART ONE

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1

A NNEXES .......................................................................................................

1 EPSSim Features .............................................................................................................54

2 Worksheets used in EPSSim 2.9 ......................................................................................62

3 Assessing Efficiency by Cohort Analysis ..........................................................................65

1 EXERCISE ON INDICATORS .............................................................................................

2 WORKING ON SCENARIOS: A SIMULATION EXERCISE ..................................................

Activity 1 Developing a “Status Quo” Scenario .............................................................95

Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory Scenario ..............................................................97

Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to set a Reference Scenario ....................98

3 EPSSIM ADAPTATION EXERCISE (ADVANCED TRAINING) .............................................

4 SOLUTIONS OF THE SIMULATION EXERCISE: WORKING ON SCENARIOS .....................

5 SOLUTIONS OF THE ADAPTATION EXERCISE ...............................................................

CONTENTS PART TWO

PART ONE Figures and Tables

Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................. 2

Fig 1.1 Uses of simulation modelling .........................................................................3

Fig 1.2 Simulation models – ‘budgetary’ or ‘demographic’ approaches ..................... 5

Table 1.1 Correspondence between strategic planning and policy simulation ............. 6

Fig 1.3 Logical sequence of demographic simulation model flow .............................. 7

Table 1.2 Type of variables in primary education used in EPSSim ................................... 8

Chapter 2 ...........................................................................................................................11

Fig 2.1 Simplified chart of EPSSim simulation flow ..................................................12

Fig 2.2 Security Warning dialog box (Excel 2003) ....................................................13

Fig 2.3 Message box confirming the successful installation of EPSSim menus (Excel 2003) 13

Fig 2.4 Macro Security (Excel 2003) .........................................................................14

Fig 2.5 Macro Security (Excel 2003) .........................................................................14

Fig 2.6 Setting Macro Security Level (Excel 2003) ....................................................15

Fig 2.7 Security Options (Excel 2007) .......................................................................16

Fig 2.8 Add-Ins Menu bar (Excel 2007) ....................................................................16

Fig 2.9 Introductory Windows for EPSSim 2.9b .......................................................17

Fig 2.10 Flow Chart ...................................................................................................19

Chapter 3 ...........................................................................................................................20

Fig 3.1 EPSSim 2.9b Menu ....................................................................................20

Fig 3.2 Introductory Pop-up box ..............................................................................21

Fig 3.3 Show Indicators (Glossary) ..........................................................................22

Fig 3.4 Population Data Menu .................................................................................23

Fig 3.5 Population Projections Data ........................................................................24

Fig 3.6 Dropout Projections Data .............................................................................25

Fig 3.7 Simulations and Projections Menu ...............................................................26

Fig 3.8 Educational Inputs in Primary Education ......................................................26

Fig 3.9 Simulations and Projections Menu ...............................................................27

Fig 3.10 Cost Projections Menu .................................................................................28

Fig 3.11 Results of Financial Forecasts .......................................................................28

Fig 3.12 Cost Projections by Education Level ............................................................30

Fig 3.13 Expenditure Framework ................................................................................31

Fig 3.14 Expenditure Balance ....................................................................................32

Fig 3.15 Additional Costing .......................................................................................33

Fig 3.16 Scenarios Menu ..........................................................................................34

Fig 3.17 Dialogue box for Generating Scenarios ........................................................35

Fig 3.18 Dialogue box to validate scenarios ...............................................................35

Fig 3.19 Charts on Scenario .....................................................................................36

Fig 3.20 Contracting and Expanding Rows ................................................................37

Fig 3.21 Using hyperlinks ..........................................................................................38

Fig 3.22 Selecting the whole worksheet ...................................................................38

Fig 3.23 Contracting or Expanding Columns .............................................................39

Fig 3.24 Viewing and Moving worksheets .................................................................39

Chapter 4 ...........................................................................................................................40

Fig 4.1 EPSSim Utilities Menu ..................................................................................40

Fig 4.2 EPSSim Utilities Menu ..................................................................................40

Fig 4.3 View Charts Menu ......................................................................................42

Fig 4.4 Enrolments Chart .........................................................................................43

Fig 4.5 Extra Utilities ................................................................................................44

Fig 4.6 Calculating Flow Rates .................................................................................44

Fig 4.7 Cohort Analysis ..........................................................................................45

Fig 4.8 Sprague Multipliers 1 ...................................................................................46

Fig 4.9 Sprague Multipliers 2 ...................................................................................46

Fig 4.10 Educational Indicators ..................................................................................47

Fig 4.11 Menu Sheet .................................................................................................48

Chapter 5 ...........................................................................................................................49

Fig 5.1 VOC worksheet ..........................................................................................50

Fig 5.2 Setting the age population for each level and type of education ..................50

Fig 5.3 Modifying the number of grades ................................................................51

Fig 5.4 Classifying categories of teachers ................................................................52

PART TWO Figures and Tables

Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................93

Fig 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises ...............................................................................93

Fig 1.2 Exercise on Indicators ...................................................................................93

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONE / Chapter 1EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model PART ONNE / Chapter 1

EPSSim User Guide PART ONE

Practising EPSSim

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PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation ModelPART ONEPART ONE / Chapter 1 r EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation ModelPART PART T ONEONETT

Chapter 1 Simulation in Education Planning

National education sectors are highly complex systems. The effects of policy decisions on edu-ca tion system and its development are not always obvious. Since the 1960s, UNESCO and other international agencies have supported education systems around the world in uncovering the implications of their policy decisions. Education simulation models were introduced and used as one of the tools in this process. Since then, several generations of models have been created and have evolved over time.

From the first-generation of `generic models’ on mainframe computers in the 1960s, UNESCO’s simulation modelling work expanded with the common use of spreadsheet-based education simulation models in the 1980s. Since the Declaration of Education for All in Jomtien in 1990, especially its reaffirmation in 2000 in Dakar, the use of computer-based simulation models has intensified. UNESCO’s models have been used for planning at national and sub-national levels (regions, districts) throughout the world, including in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States region, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia and the Pacific region.

Such models are inevitably required to serve a variety of purposes. Requirements and expectations differ between different stakeholders and change over time. In-country stakeholders include not only Ministry of Education and other Government departments dealing with the provision of education, but also Ministries of Finance and Planning. Non-state actors (e.g. civil society, business sector, etc.) play an increasingly active role in education develop ment. External stakeholders, including international and bilateral donors, also influence the design of a country’s education sector policy and its implementation. Resulting from their different mandates and functions, for some stakeholders the primary purpose is to project the implications of policy decisions on the dynamics and resource requirements of the education system, for others it is to cost them or to assess the feasibility of quality improvements within a given expenditure framework. As the emphasis moves from policy-setting to planning to implemen tation, the focus and the role of simulation modelling expands accordingly. Moreover, what is an open decision variable early in the process became a constraint later on, once the decision has been made.

1.1 Education Simulation Models in Educational Policy Formulation and Planning

A simulation model is a tool used to analyze, explore and project complex social and economic systems. It aims to simulate reality by estimating and assessing future circumstances based on changes in given variables. Simulation models take policy options, technical feasibilities, and financial constraints into account in order to project future resourcing and budgeting needs that would serve as a basis for policy dialogue.

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Prior to computer simulation, it was difficult to anticipate and measure the impact of various decisions on the development of an education system, and in particular on education financing. Computer simulation has contributed substantially to the preparation of coherent national educa-tional policies and strategies and to the robustness of education development plans.

This is particularly critical since education planning is taking place in an increasingly complex environ ment. Change is occurring at an ever increasing pace (emphasising the need for flexibility and strategic planning); there is a multiplicity of stakeholders (increasing the need for consensus and compromise and a strong focus on results and outcomes); and the public finance context is increasingly competitive (placing greater attention on opportunity costs, cost-benefit analy sis and evidence-based expenditure).

While they can be used to model and appraise sub-components of the education system, simulation models are particularly useful in developing holistic, sector-wide education strategies.

Simulation modelling is therefore used to (Figure 1.1):

education system as a whole (to ensure the coherence of education plans);

a nd specific objectives and facilitate negotiation on policy and resources (thus supporting an informed policy dialogue);

of resources (promoting the transparency in resource management); and

comings by monitoring and evaluating the performance of educational systems (therefore, increasing accountability).

Figure 1.1 Uses of simulation modelling

Transparency

Working Tool

Accountability

ComputerSimulation

Informed PolicyDialogue

Negotiation Tool

Monitoring &Evaluating

Tool

PlanningTool

Coherence

1 / Simulation in Education Planning

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PART ONE / Chapter 1 EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation ModelPART ONE

1.2 Types of Simulation ModelsWhile there is wide variation in education simulation models, they can be roughly categorized accor ding to their generic or country-specific characteristics, and the budgetary or demographic approach they are based on.

Generic vs Country specific approaches In theory, there are two main types of models according to the immediate purpose of their use: generic and country-specific models. In practice, the distinction is often blurred.

EPSSim is categorized as a “generic model” that is comprising the common features of all modern school systems (such as student flow), together with a set of optional components to be included or excluded as required to achieve a first approximation of a country’s education system development. In other words, it does not correspond to any specific system or country but repres ents a virtual education system. Once the baseline data and policy options are entered, the generic model can be used to approximate the pedagogical, physical, and financial consequences of policy orientations. It can be useful at the initial stage of designing an education policy by exploring policy alternatives and facilitating consensus-building on the chief goals and objectives. At a later stage, with further country-level adaptation, this sort of a model can develop into a power ful operational tool for designing elaborated education development plans and their action plans that take into account the specificities of the given national systems. For more information on country-level adaptation of EPSSim in particular, see Chapter 5.

The country-specific models are directly developed from the structure and specifics of a given education system and help define detailed options, in particular at the stage of preparing action plans. Given their specific design and purpose, country-specific models provide powerful tools for a given country’s education planning, however, their adaptation and use in a different country context is difficult.

Budgetary vs demographic approachesThere is another distinction that can be made according to the underlying assumption of planning principles: budgetary and demographic. These two types of models are designed according to two different methodological approaches, or points of departure: budgetary models tend to use the national budget for education as the main decision variable, whereas demographic models start with the assumption that all potential learners should benefit from education (see Figure 1.2).

In the budgetary model, the planner is first concerned with determining an acceptable budget ceiling in proportion to the country’s general budget, and subsequent expenditure ceilings for each education sub-sector within a given overall budget ceiling. The simulation therefore works backwards to obtain financially acceptable enrolment targets and determine the necessary non-financial resources.

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In the case of the demographic model such as EPSSim, the opposite logic is implemented: enrolment targets are taken as a priori and the simulation calculates the corresponding resource implications, especially financial.

Figure 1.2 Simulation models – ‘budgetary’ or ‘demographic’ approaches

Ratios of students

to teachers,equipment etc

Ratios of students

to teachers,equipment etc

Number ofstudents

Financial/budgetry model (driven by costs)

Demographic/needs model (driven by demographic trends)

Number ofstudents

Enrolment-relatedtargets

Flowrates

Budgetceilings

Perstudent

unitcost Budget

celings

Per studentunit cost

Number of teachers,

buildings etc

Number of teachers,

buildings etc

Financialresource

requirements

&

& ÷

÷

As shown in Figure 1.2, the budgetary model responds to the perceived need to control educa tional expenditures, in particular following structural adjustment policies advocated by external donors in the past. By contrast, the demographic approach which is increasingly dominant nowa days, and which EPSSim is based, takes the national policy goals as the decision variables to derive the resource requirements and ensures the budgetary balance through trade-offs across and within the sub-sectors.

The demographic approach was developed most notably under the impetus of major international conferences advocating for the universalisation of basic education (Education for All in particular). It has prevailed over the budgetary approach in so far as the education policy that is pursued aims to improve the quality while increasing access to education in a sector-wide development context. In the demographic models, constructed in the image of the structure of the education system of a country, the decision variables are principally educational objectives rather than budgetary constraints. This new needs-based approach changes the way development agen cies work with recipient countries in the preparation of development plans and programmes in the education sector. These plans should now explicitly outline the expected results (outputs and outcomes) of development actions such that accurate estimates of the educational system’s potential to achieve their objectives can be identified in advance. In so doing, it is anticipated that education sector


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plans will be more credible and the scale of the task more clearly understood. In turn, this can help to improve the expected efficiency of education investments and provide a sound basis upon which to conduct monitoring and evaluation.

In practice, however, many models develop ‘hybrid’ approaches depending on the education level focus and on the priority/purpose pursued by the planning exercises.

1.3 Three Stages of SimulationThere are three principal stages to follow in the process of simulation modelling. These are: the organization of the baseline data to be projected, the definition of hypotheses (decision or indepen-dent variables), and the generation of results (result or dependent variables). As depicted in Table 1.1 below, these three stages of simulation correspond to three stages of strategic planning.

Table 1.1 Correspondence between strategic planning and policy simulation

Stage Strategic planning Policy simulation

1 Sector analysis (Diagnosis)

Data(Baseline)

2Policy formulation

(Policies)Hypotheses

(Policy assumptions)

3Action Planning(Plan of actions)

Results(Projections)

The three stages of simulation based on the demographic simulation approach are explained further below:

Stage 1: ENTERING BASELINE DATAThe first stage of simulation is data entry. It consists of collecting and organizing data in population, the education sector and the macro-economic framework. Most of the baseline data are those of the base year(s) or the most recent years, which are collected and analyzed during the diagnosis of the education sector. The diagnosis phase helps also customizing a generic model (e.g. EPSSim) to the national education system specificities. The degree of refinement and the credibility of a simulation will depend heavily on the quality of this data. If some indispensable data for the construc tion of a simulation does not exist or is not fully valid and reliable, additional data collection and research should be carried out.

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Since a simulation model is the representation of a real education system and its operation mecha-nism, care must be exercised to capture the most accurate data and information possible. The nature of data collected and the manner in which it is presented reflects the scope and the degree of complexity of the education system. However, at a minimum, most simulation models draw on four key categories of data: population and enrolments; teaching and other staff; building and equipment; and instructional materials (Figure 1.3).

Figure 1.3 Logical sequence of demographic simulation model flow

Population

Teachers and other staff

Buildings and equipment

Enrolments at eacheducation level

Intake, registrationand flow rates

Instructional materials

Yearly recurrent and capital cost projections

Stage 2: IDENTIFYING POLICY OPTIONS AND ASSUMPTIONSOnce the baseline data resulting from the sector analysis (diagnosis) has been collected and compiled, the next step is to identify all relevant policy goals, objectives and commitments. This refers to the policy, organizational, pedagogical, and even socio-economic objectives which consti tute the variables influencing the operation of education. The quantitative objectives most frequently used are the enrolment ratios, intake and flow rates, the supervision ratios (e.g. pupils/ teacher ratio), the utilization rates of the education buildings and student facilities, and the share of education in the national budget. Once assembled, the goals/objectives will be classified into decision (independent) variables and result (dependent) variables. The variables which constitute the policy assumptions in a simulation are the decision variables.

Table 1.2 displays a set of sample decision variables used in a simulation model under the first column. The second column contains the results that can be generated by the simulation model.


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Table 1.2 Type of variables in primary education used in EPSSim

Independent / decision variables Dependent / result variables

o Intake rate in first gradeo Flow rate o Pupil-class ratioo Proportion of multi-grade classeso Proportion of double shift classes

o New entrants in first gradeo Number of pupils

o Gross enrolment ratioso Number of classes/classrooms

o Number of multi-grade and/or double shift classes

o Pupil-teacher ratioo Turnover and attrition rateso Staff Supervision rate o Proportion of non-teaching staff

o Number of teachers requiredo Number of other staff requiredo Training and recruitment needs

o Initial index valueo Salary scale and other emolumentso Budgetary allocationso Macro-economic indicators

o Salary expenseso Recurrent expenditureso Investment expenditureso Financing gap

Stage 3: PROJECTING RESULTS

The projections are the results of the simulation of policy hypotheses in relation to the baseline data. The simulation provides indicative information on (i) student enrolments and (ii) the necessary human, physical and financial means needed to implement defensible development actions as well as the (iii) the cost estimates and their consequences for budgetary and financial resources (see Table 1.2, right column on “Dependent variables”).

Students (enrolments): Given population data, and the current status and future objective of student enrolment, promotion and repetition rates, a simulation model is able to project likely student populations across each sub-sector of the education system in the years to come and can also be used to test the viability of educational attainment objectives. These data are used to determine all the following resources of a given education system.

Personnel: Modelling makes it possible to estimate future requirements in the number of teaching and non-teaching personnel (managerial and supervisory staff, administrative and service personnel, technical and maintenance workers) over time, by region (depending on the disaggregation level of the model), and by education level. It also enables the evaluation of the training needs of these personnel, both at the pre-service and in-service levels.

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Instructional materials and equipment: A simulation can estimate future needs for materials and equipment and indicate the requirements for the production and the distribution of these materials.

Educational facilities: On the basis of the number of students and the variables of pedagogical management, the simulation has the potential to evaluate the number of buildings and rooms (both classrooms and other facilities) to build or to rehabilitate over a given time-horizon. It also indicates the amount of equipment to be purchased and maintenance to be undertaken.

Education costs and financing: Each category of education inputs above involves costs. Therefore, the unit costs of education inputs will have to be made available in order to conduct resources projections. The ultimate purpose of a simulation is the quantification of the required financial resources resulting from a particular combination of possible decisions in education policy. But the quantitative forecasts of educational development depend not only on the policy objectives, but also on the budgetary implications and the macro-economic feasability of the country. If the financial estimates relating to the education sector (total education costs) prove to be too high in relation to the possibilities of the national macro-economic framework, policy options are to be revised with the aim of defining bankable and financially sustainable policy variables.

1.4 Developing ScenariosAlthough there is no single pattern followed in the construction of a development scenario, it is nevertheless possible to identify a commonly used method characterized by the following three principal stages: the simulation model is first used as a tool for simple projection in the literal sense of the word, then as a tool for exploration, and finally as a tool for forecasting.

Establishing the status quo scenario (projection): The first scenario, also called a “baseline” or “status quo” scenario, consists of a simple projection based on past trends. It is concerned with under standing the past trends and outcomes where there is no change to current education policy set tings. This status quo scenario makes it possible to weigh the consequences of the laissez-faire policy to identify and specify the desirable changes to be adopted within the framework of a new sector development or reform.

Mapping alternative scenarios (exploration): The second stage consists of developing alter-native scenarios (typically two or three) based on the objectives resulting from the application of new policies in relation to past trends (including in relation to the macro-economic and budgetary framework). This stage allows planners and policy makers to examine the future impacts of different variable changes on education outcomes and financial sustainability. It is in the course of this stage that the feasibility of the proposed policies and strategies can be tested. The results of the different scenarios can then be used to inform the policy debate with a view to reaching a consensus on the objectives of education policy. Once different options have been carefully weighed, a scenario (i.e. a set of agreed and proposed policy options) will progressively acquire certain stability and will result in what is called a reference scenario


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Defining the reference scenario (forecasting): The third phase is the adoption of a scenario resulting from the combination of several objectives previously tested and discussed among policy makers. Once verified on the policy and technical level, this scenario is refined with the degree of information required in the programming of actions. It becomes the reference scenario for the future education plan, making it possible to forecast development actions and the financial resources required. Importantly, it also forms the foundation upon which monitoring, evaluation and further improvement can be undertaken. Effective monitoring and evaluation is facilitated by the fact that simulation models produce quantified, disaggregated annual indicators relating to the educational system’s organization and operation at all levels.

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Chapter 2Starting EPSSim

Please note: This guide is applicable for both EPSSim versions 2.9b and 2.9c; however, figures used in this guide are based on EPSSim 2.9b. The main difference between the two versions is that 2.9c has public and private disaggregation of educational programme whereas 2.9b is first organized according to urban and rural populations and then public and private provision.1

2.1 EPSSim as a Demographic Simulation ModelThe Education Policy and Strategy Simulation (EPSSim) model was developed within UNESCO’s Education Sector in 2001, building on simulation models in use at UNESCO during the 1990s. It has since undergone continuous development.

In terms of scope, EPSSim is a sector-wide and goals-based (demographic approach) generic model and aims to create broad support by reflecting the concerns and interests of diverse stakeholders beyond Ministries of Education, Finance or Planning, by including additional components at the intersection of education and other sectors, such as pro-poor targeting, school feeding etc., that have not in the past been part of education models. This is done in response to country requests.

A particular aim is to serve as a UN-wide model around which discussions with international partners can be based and to facilitate integration with international policy frameworks.

At the national level, EPSSim can accompany countries though all stages of the strategic plan ning and management cycle. The model was conceived with a view to providing technical and metho-dological support to national administrations and specialists in education ministries in their efforts to formulate credible education development plans and programmes, including in the context of the Education for All (EFA) goals.

The aim of the model is also to provide a potentially self-contained package (including self-training features) that can be deployed by country planners without external support and can be adapted within a typical range of structural alternatives with minimal expertise. For instance, the model contains some built-in training modules which provide exercises on the key indicators used in the model and enable users to conduct a simplified simulation using hypothetical data (refer to Part 2: Practicing EPSSim in this manual).

1 Please note that a table containing useful references within the model (including worksheet references) is provided at Annex 1.

Please note that the explanation given below describes the generic form of the EPSSim structure, i.e. before its adaptation to a specific country context. Therefore the adapted EPSSim structure may differ from that explained in this guide.

2 / Starting EPSSim

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Figure 2.1 Simplified chart of EPSSim simulation flow

Flow direction

Iterative process

ResultsParameters/hypothesesBaseline dataLegend

Different modalities of resource utilization

Schoolenrolmentsat different

education levels

Graduates from a cycleor level of education

Intake rate,enrolment and

flow rates

School-agepopulation

School-agepopulation for first grade of

primary education

+ Teachers and otherpersonnel;

+ Classroomsand other

rooms;+ Educationalmaterials and

equipment

Macro-Economic

andbudgetaryindicators

Educationalexpenditures

(recurrent andinvestment)

As shown in Figure 2.1, EPSSim starts by computing the projected intake, enrolment and flow rates on the basis of population data, enrolment status and policy objectives. The number of enrolments by level and type of education, combined with the current and future modalities of resource utili za-tion (teaching staff, equipment, infrastructure, etc.), enable the estimation of future requirements of teachers, non-teaching staff, instructional materials, educational facilities and so forth. These projected requirements, together with cost-related data and hypothesis, provide information on financial requirements and the possible financing gaps associated with certain education policy goals.

2.2 Installing EPSSim EPSSim has been designed to be adaptable to country needs, even down to the menus in the macros. (See chapter 5 for more information on macros.) This guide will outline how to do so, and provides screen shots to aid comprehension. You may skip through to find what you need, or read the sections consecutively.

The next part of this guide explains how to use EPSSim and takes the user through the steps involved in the modelling process.

The EPSSim software can be downloaded from UNESCO’s Inter-Agency Network on Education Simu lation Models (INESM) website2 along with other computer simulation programmes used by Inter national Organizations. On the ‘Explore’ tab, you may access the full education simulation model (ESM) database, where EPSSim is downloadable, free for all users. Choose either EPSSim 2.9b or 2.9c to download on your computer and unzip it.

The system requirement for EPSSim is at least Microsoft Excel (2003 or 2007 version).

2 INESM website address: http://inesm.education.unesco.org/en/esm-library/esm/epssim.

http://inesm.education.unesco.org/en/esm-library/esm/epssim

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2.2A Enabling Macros and Setting Security Level for Excel 2003When you open (or double click) the EPSSim file in Excel 2003, a security warning dialog box will pop up asking you to choose either or (Figure 2.2). You must choose in order to activate the two specialized menus (EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities) and other automatic functions that we will explore at a later stage. Once you enable macros, you will see a message box informing successful installation of EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities menu on the menu bar (Figure 2.3).

Figure 2.2 Security Warning dialog box (Excel 2003)

Figure 2.3 Message box confirming the successful installation of EPSSim menus (Excel 2003)

3 A macro is a short programme written to automate several and/or repetitive steps

If EPSSim opens without showing the box in Figure 2.2 but instead showing Figure 2.4, it means the security level of your Microsoft Excel is not set to Medium.

2 / Starting EPSSim

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Figure 2.4 Macro Security (Excel 2003)

Figure 2.5 Macro Security (Excel 2003)

To reset the security level, click ok and go to Tools, then Macro and Security (Figure 2.5). Click on Security and set the security level as Medium (Figure 2.6, next page). This security level will allow you to choose whether or not to run macros when using EPSSim. In order to activate macros, it is necessary to reopen EPSSim and choose Enable Macros. EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities will appear on the menu bar.

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Figure 2.6 Setting Macro Security Level (Excel 2003)

2.2B Starting EPSSim for Excel 2007 Users

For users of Excel 2007, the procedure of enabling macros is slightly different. When EPSSim opens, a message will appear underneath the menu bar as highlighted in Figure 2.7 below. To enable macros, you need to change the security setting by first clicking (Figure 2.7); then selecting and clicking ok (Figure 2.7). Next, click when the “New menus [EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities] have been created on the menu bar” then click the

tab and you will now find the two menus and as shown in Figure 2.8.

2 / Starting EPSSim

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Figure 2.7 Security Options (Excel 2007)

Figure 2.8 Add-Ins Menu bar (Excel 2007)

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2.3 Introduction to the Start Worksheet4

Please note that while similar, the EPSSim display differs slightly between Excel 2003 and 2007. This guide has been written according to the features of Excel 2003.

You will first encounter a start worksheet (Figure 2.9) where you can find basic information on EPSSim and gain access to various utilities.

Figure 2.9 Introductory Windows for EPSSim 2.9b

The numbers in Figure 2.9 correspond to the following four explanations.

# 1 EPSSim 2.9 AND EPSSim UTILITIES MENUS

Once you have enabled macros, you will have two add-in menus (EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities) installed on your menu bar. These menus will be used throughout the simulation process and will be explained further in Chapters 3 and 4.

# 2 VERSIONS OF EPSSim

Cell E2 provides the reference to the version of EPSSim you have downloaded (in this case EPSSim 2.9b).

# 3 BASELINE YEAR

In the yellow cell (cell B4), users are required to specify the starting year of data that will be used in the simulation process, or the baseline year. Once this is entered, the model will adjust to using that year as the baseline year for all worksheets (i.e. if the data used is from 2006, cell B4 will be set to 2006, which will be taken as the baseline year, and the simulation process will consequently be starting from year 2006).

4 Worksheet refers to a sheet of working space in Excel. You can add new or delete existing worksheets according to your needs. In EPSSim, worksheets are already created for your use.

2 / Starting EPSSim

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# 4 BUTTONS ON THE START WORKSHEET

Button Function

This icon allows you to refresh the menu bar. When changes are made on the menus from the menu sheet, you will need to refresh the menu with this button.

Five different languages are available for user: English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, and Arabic. By clicking the Language button, a pop up box will appear from where you can select your language. It is also possible to choose the language you desire from the EPSSim Utilities menu by choosing the Language menu item. Please note that additional macros can be added to make EPSSim bilingual in languages other than those listed, for countries in which none of these are spoken widely. This level of detail is not covered in this guide. Kindly consult an Excel specialist about your requirements.)

When you click the Display All button, EPSSim will display all the worksheets used in EPSSim. If you want to learn more about the worksheets used in the model, please go to Annex 1 where you can find summarized information on each.

The Hide All button will close all the worksheets currently open, leaving only the Start worksheet open.

Clicking the Flow Chart button provides a flow chart overview of how EPSSim is structured. It also allows you to access various worksheets by clicking each button in the flow chart. For example, if you click Population, it will open the population worksheet (Figure 3.10). Once you click a button you must close the Flow Chart by clicking OK to view the spreadsheet that was opened behind the chart.

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Figure 2.10 Flow Chart

2 / Starting EPSSim

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Chapter 3 EPSSim 2.9b / 2.9c Menu

3.1 OverviewAs shown in Chapter 2, EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and EPSSim Utilities menus are created on the main menu bar (for those using Excel 2007, they will appear under the ‘Add ins’ tab). Chapter 3 will out line the functions contained in EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c as shown in Figure 3.1, and Chapter 4 will explain those in EPSSim Utilities.

Figure 3.1 EPSSim 2.9b Menu

The EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c menu has six different functions:

What’s EPSSim? provides basic information on EPSSim, a glossary of indicators, EPSSim shortcut keys and a link to EPSSim Help Online.

Population Data includes the worksheet where population data have to be entered and information on the number of children who drop out.

Simulation/Projections provides links to open the separate worksheets for each level and type of education.

Cost Projections menu is disaggregated by each educational level and type.

Additional Costing is available if users wish to include the impact of HIV/AIDS, demand side intervention, and CFS (Child Friendly School) programmes in the cost projections.

Scenarios can be generated as a result of simulations and projections.

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Further information on each of these options is outlined below.

3.2 “What’s EPSSim?” Tab

The first menu item of EPSSim 2.9b/ 2.9c is What’s EPSSim?, which provides useful basic information on EPSSim. Under this menu there are three submenu options:

1 About EPSSim

Clicking About EPPSim will launch a pop up window which provides introductory information about the two latest versions of EPSSim, together with some information on the origins of the project.

Figure 3.2 Introductory Pop-up box

2 Show Indicators (GLOSSARY)

presents a glossary of indicators where you can search for definitions of the indicators used in EPSSim (Figure 3.3). You may either search for a specific indicator using the search window at the top, or scroll through each in turn by clicking on Next. The list of indicators is also accessible via the worksheet named (the last worksheet).

3 / EPSSim 2.9b / 2.9c Menu

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Figure 3.3 Show Indicators (Glossary)

3 EPSSim Shortcut KeysThis menu provides information on various short cut keys which have been developed for the model.

4 EPSSim Help Online This option links to a website (INESM) where this User Guide and further information on EPSSim can be found.

3.3 Population Data TabAfter reviewing these introductory features of EPSSim, one can begin designing simu lations and projections with statistical and policy data. As outlined above, entering data on population worksheet is the first step for simulation.

On the Population Data menu shown in Figure 3.4, there are two different submenus: Population Projections and Dropout Children. Both of these submenus will prompt you to a worksheet named

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Figure 3.4 Population Data Menu

1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS WORKSHEET

As EPSSim is a demographic model, population data is an essential part of its structure and process. Users need to enter age disaggregated baseline year population data on numbers of males and females (also disaggregated by urban and rural for 2.9b only) for each age from 0 to 18. From the age of 19+, ages are grouped into 19 to 23, 24 to 49, 50 to 64 and 65+. The rate of population growth should also be inserted at the top of the spreadsheet (again disaggregated by urban and rural for those using 2.9b).

It is important that the population data are correct and verifiable. Most official statistical insti-tu tions will hold data which are appropriate to use in this model.

As a general rule, in EPSSim, the cells which require your data are indicated in yellow (see for example, Figure 4.5). All others are generated using internal formulae and should not be altered.

If you do not have age specific population data but have age grouped populations, it is possible to disaggregate by using the Sprague Multiplier which is embedded in the model. This can be found under Extra Utilities and its usage is explained in Chapter 5.


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Figure 3.5 Population Projections Data

1 DROPOUT CHILDREN WORKSHEET

This menu is incorporated in the same worksheet as population data. There are three parts within this submenu;

o Dropout children covers the number of children who are expected to drop out from grade 1 to 7. Projections on dropout children are derived from the primary education worksheet, therefore no data entry is required. Dropout children are calculated by multi-plying total student enrolments of grade X in primary education by dropout rate of grade X (can be found in worksheet ).

o Population of age 15 or older displays the number of students who are age 15 or older. No data entry is required as the number of students is calculated automatically from the population data. (It is sum of the population aged 15+.)

o Graduates from Primary Education reaching age 15+ requires data entry from the base-line year and for the four consecutive years. This information is used to calculate the num ber of the expected literate population (age 15+) in the Non Formal Education tab. According to international standards, those who have been through grade 5 (normally 11 years old) are expected to be literate. However, when calculating the literate population, we only take adults (age 15+) into consideration, therefore, in order to obtain the number of graduates from primary education reaching the age 15+, the model takes

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the graduates of primary education in 2006 (or the equivalent baseline year) and leaves a gap of four years. Since the baseline year is 2006 in this EPSSim exercise, we take those students who have graduated from primary school in 2006 and place them in 2010 (assuming that the number remains the same). Therefore, yellow cells in 2006 to 2009 should be taken from the national statistics. If this data is not available, you can assume that it is the number of graduates from primary education in 2002 to 2005. The number of dropout children becomes “0” in 2016-2020 because the number is calculated by multiplying the dropout rates by the number of enrolled students where dropout rates are set as “0” after 2016 in primary education.

Figure 3.6 Dropout Projections Data

3.4 Simulations/Projections Tab

Once the data entry on population has been completed, it is possible to start the process of entering in education data as well as policy options and commencing simulation and projection.

1 Structure of Simulations/Projections Menu

The seven sub-menus under the Simulation/Projections menu correspond to the seven standard levels and types of education: 1) (ECCE), 2) (PRIM), 3) (SEC1) (commonly used to denote Lower Secondary Education), 4) (SEC2) (commonly used to refer to Upper Secondary Education), 5)

(HED) 6) (TED) and 7) (NFE) (see Figure 3.7). Clicking on a sub-menu launches the appropriate worksheet.


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Figure 3.7 Simulations and Projections Menu

2 Data Entry for Simulations/Projections

Within the simulation and projection worksheets, users are required to enter education data on the baseline year and set policy objectives. There are four default educational input categories in the simulation and projections worksheets namely:

A. B. C. and D. (Figure 4.9).

Figure 3.8 Educational Inputs in Primary Education

Data shall be entered in three different columns. Each column correspond to a specific set of data (cells coloured in yellow are the ones to be filled in);

o Baseline (Column B): This is where baseline year educational data is entered.

o Targets/Options (Column C): This refers to the policy targets, objectives or options that are expected or desired.

o Number of years (Column D): This refers to the number of years from the baseline year in which to achieve the policy objectives set in column C. Note that the period of time to achieve a given target can vary between indicators.

The combination of these three columns of data will therefore reflect the degree of ambition of the policy settings being tested and will be the chief determinants of the cost and scale of required

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resources. While the baseline data remain fixed as they refer to a ground situation, the policy objectives (targets/options and number of years) will be the mechanisms by which alternative policy scenarios can be tested.

To assist in gauging the pace of change, the model automatically calculates the annual increment rate (Column E) by subtracting baseline data (where you are now, column B) from target data (where you would like to be, column C) and dividing the results by the number of years within which you are expecting to achieve this policy target (column D).

Example: Consider the promotion rate of primary school in Figure 4.8. In the baseline year, the promotion rate is 86% (column B) and it is set to achieve a target rate of 99% (column C) in 10 years (Number of years, column D). Therefore, in column E, the annual increment rate first calculates the difference between the target rate 99 (C) and the given rate 86 (B) and then divides that number by the number of years, which is 10. This results in an average annual incremental rate of 1.3% (Figure 3.9).

Figure 3.9 Simulations and Projections Menu

3.5 Cost Projections TabThis data on resources (educational inputs of the education system) then provide the basis on which the cost projections can be calculated, an integral feature of the model and a crucial part of the planning process. The Cost Projections menu mirrors the seven levels and types of education (Figure 3.10). All of the submenus under cost projections are directed to only one worksheet (COST), however clicking on different sub-menus will direct the screen to the relevant cell within the worksheet.


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Figure 3.10 Cost Projections Menu

To view the detail for each level or type of education, click on the ‘+’ button to the far left of the worksheet (refer to section 4.8 for further information).

The Cost worksheet has three categories; 1) , 2) , and 3) (Figure 3.11).

Figure 3.11 Results of Financial Forecasts

1 Cost Projections/Simulations by Education Level/TypeThis section of the worksheet incorporates unit costs and other expenditure-related data for the cost projections on each education level and type. As shown in Figure 3.12, below there are two types of cost; recurrent and capital costs. Recurrent costs (1) are costs that occur repetitively on a continuing basis for the day-to-day functioning of the system, such as teachers’ wages, administrative costs, and the costs of teaching materials (because their lifespan is relatively short). Capital costs (2) refer to construction and investment expenditure, including annual new construction (including water/sanitation facilities), new equipment (including furniture), and reconstruction (including separate water/sanitation facilities).

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In the cost projection, the same rule applies as per the education simulation and projection. On the baseline, users provide information on the relevant costs in the yellow-coloured cells and set policy objectives.

For certain categories of expenses, the model will ask for annual increments, rather than targets or numbers of years. These will be indicated by the location of the yellow cell. For example, teachers’ wages (disaggregated by a default setting providing four classifications of teacher/principal) are measured according to a wage standard in reference to GDP. The model therefore asks for data on GDP per capita5 (3) and the Per capita GDP multiples (4) which correspond to the different wage categories. The Salary Stabilization Index (5) is also multiplied according to the annual increase in the percentage of wage. In addition, it is assumed that certain categories of teachers (in rural areas for instance) receive a salary bonus by a certain percentage, which can either be set as “0” or adjusted depending on the country data.

If the data on teachers’ wages are available, it is ALSO possible to use the average wage of teachers instead of GDP per capita in estimating the wage standard. However, in that case, the salary stabilization index must be set to reflect the committed or expected annual increase in the wages. Therefore, the formulae to calculate teachers’ wages change by removing GDP per capita (cell F7) and dragging the changed formula across all the categories on teachers’ wages.

Apart from the costs on wages, other recurrent costs are multiplied alongside relevant unit costs.

5 GDP per capita is automatically calculated (see 3 in the graph below) from the GDP that has to be informed under the expen-diture framework in the COST worksheet and from the total population calculated in the POP worksheet.

In addition to the above main costs, there are additional costs associated with demand-side interventions (child friendly school (CFS) features and HIV/AIDS programmes), which could be included if applicable. (Further explanation can be found in section 4.6.)


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Figure 3.12 Cost Projections by Education Level

2 Expenditure Framework

In this Expenditure Framework part of the worksheet (Figure 3.13 below), most of the expenditure-related data will need to be obtained from other ministries such as those with responsibility for public finance, budgeting, economic planning and development.

First of all, total GDP must be entered on the baseline year with the annual increment rate (GDP growth rate), which will be used in projecting GDP in the following years. However, as GDP growth rates vary according to both domestic and international economic circumstances, it is also possible to enter the official (1) made by the Ministry of Finance (often jointly with IMF) over the planned period rather than assume a linear relationship with a fixed GDP growth.

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The second step is to enter Consolidated government resources (2), which is split into recurrent and capital and expressed as a percentage of GDP. This basically refers to how much revenue the government (at all levels) establishes as a percentage of total GDP (total national budget).

Third, it is crucial to find out how much of those consolidated government resources are spent on or allocated for education. This corresponds to Domestic resources for education (3) that is expressed as a percentage of government consolidated resources. This information will be used to calculate the difference between available budget and cost simulation. It also allows to auto-matically calculate the share of education as a % of GDP (see the line above Number 1 in the figure below) which is a useful indicator in policy negotiations with international donors or the Ministry of Finance.

Once domestic resources for education are defined, it is then necessary to provide a Breakdown of resources by level and type of education (4).

In this section, users need to specify the policy target for the breakdown and enter in the number of years.

Figure 3.13 Expenditure Framework


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3 Expenditure Balance

This part of the worksheet compares the cost projections data and the available government resources to assess the resource implications and financial requirements for achieving the govern-ment’s policy options within the specified macroeconomic and budgetary frameworks. In addition to government resources, Stakeholders’ contributions are also considered, such as school fees paid by households as well as donor aid (Figure 3.14).

Figure 3.14 Expenditure Balance

As a result, balance is derived using the following formula:

Balance = Total Education system Cost Projection – (Government resources + Stakeholders’ contributions - Households and Donors)

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3.6 Additional Costing Tab

The Additional Costing section enables users to enter non-standard additional costs that may be incurred by the educational system (Figure 3.15). Additional costs comprise 1) costing of the impact of and responses to HIV/AIDS in education, 2) Demand-Side Interventions, and 3) Child Friendly School (CFS) Features.

The model defaults do not include estimates from these worksheets, however, they can easily be included by adjusting the rule in the tab (see below).

When entering data for these expenditures, it is important to ensure that they do not duplicate expenditures elsewhere in the model.

Figure 3.15 Additional Costing

1 Costing HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses in Education Worksheet

This tab can be used to calculate the impact of HIV/AIDS in the education system. While many methodologies are used in different countries, this model draws on pupil and/or staff related data on HIV/AIDS to calculate the financial impact of this pandemic on the education system.

Pupil-related impacts and costs of HIV/AIDS could include the proportion of HIV-positive pupils and the associated costs in providing treatment, counselling, and the proportion of children who are AIDS orphans and the costs of enrolling these students in the school system. A similar logic applies to staff-related HIV/AIDS costs.

Once you have filled in HIV/AIDS worksheet, go back to COST worksheet, expand the HIV/AIDS RELATED COSTS section and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells – this will ensure that the model draws on the data you have just entered. To restore the default settings, so that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.


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2 Costing Demand-Side Interventions WorksheetDemand-side interventions could also be added to the overall cost projections. This could include pro-poor subsidies, provision of uniforms, school feeding programmes, housing for teachers, trans-por tation services, school infrastructure, and boarding facilities for students.

3 Costing Child-Friendly School (CFS) FeaturesThis submenu contains Child-Friendly School features that can be further utilized and linked to the overall cost projections. It calculates the financial impact of applying CFS features and standards as advocated by UNICEF in its educational interventions at country level.

Examples of CFS features include health check ups on students and teachers, recruitment of person nel for school clinics and school feeding, training of teachers in peer support, leadership and manage ment, schools having gender parity and refurbishing new flexible and age-appropriate desks and chairs.

3.7 Scenarios TabNow that the cost data is included and projections can be made, it is possible to begin constructing different scenarios. There are three submenus under Scenarios; (1) Generate scenarios, (2) View all scenarios charts, and (3) Print all scenarios (Figure 3.16).

Figure 3.16 Scenarios Menu

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Once you have filled in CFS worksheet, go back to COST worksheet, expand the CFS COSTS section and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells – this will ensure that the model draws on the data you have just entered. To restore the default that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.

Once you have filled the details into the DSI (ADD in 2.9c) worksheet, go back to COST worksheet, expand the DSI COSTS section and type 1 in the relevant yellow cells – this will ensure that the model draws on the data you have just entered. To restore the default settings, so that these programmes are not included, simply type 0.

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1 Generate Scenario Once the necessary baseline, policy objective and costing data are entered, it is possible to generate a corresponding scenario. Under the drop-down menu of EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c, you can find a menu named Scenarios where you will see a submenu called Generate Scenarios.

When you select the Generate Scenarios menu, you will be asked to enter a name and description of the scenario (Figure 3.17). The names of the scenarios vary across the needs and specificity of scenarios. For example, scenario 1 could be called the status quo scenario, the second scenario could be the alternative scenario, and the last could be the reference scenario. For more information about scenario design, please refer to Section 1.1.

Figure 3.17 Dialogue box for Generating Scenarios

Once the name of the scenario you are testing and its description (main variables) are entered (or you might choose not to enter any names or descriptions), click ok. The below dialogue box (Figure 3.18) will pop up. You need to click OK in order to view the scenario that you have created.

Figure 3.18 Dialogue box to validate scenarios


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The main features of scenarios are stored and displayed in the ViewScenarios worksheet. This work sheet recaps key indicators and data projections from the other projection worksheets which pro vides a peak into how an education system may evolve, according to the policy para- meters tested.

2 View all Scenarios ChartsIt is also possible to view scenarios in a chart form by choosing the ‘view all scenarios charts’ button under the scenarios menu (Figure 3.19). The print button will direct the chart to your default printer.

Figure 3.19 Charts on Scenario

3 Print All ScenariosScenarios are formatted to fit in one page in order to facilitate viewing the charts at a glance. This page can be auctioned by choosing ‘print all scenarios’ under the scenarios menu.

Up to four scenarios can be created and viewed with key indicators for comparison. If you want to discard a scenario to replace it with another one, click the Delete this scenario button.

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3.8 Technical Tips on EPSSimTo facilitate the use of EPSSim, some small tips have been collated below:

1 Contracting and Expanding RowsOn the left hand corner of each worksheet, you will find a little box with numbers 1, 2 or 1, 2, 3. This is to facilitate users to contract or expand the relevant cells in use.

o Click to leaving just the titles.

o Click to

o Click to .

Some of the worksheets only have numbers 1 and 2 where number 1 gives large titles and 2 displays all of the cells (Figure 3.20).

You can also expand or contract individual sections of the worksheet by clicking on the ‘+’ and ‘-’ buttons to the left of the relevant section.

Figure 3.20 Contracting and Expanding Rows

Hyperlinks to individual sections within the worksheet have also been included in Column A to improve navigation (Figure 3.21).


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Figure 3.21 Using hyperlinks

Finally, you can select the whole worksheet by clicking the rectangular button on the left hand corner of the screen (Figure 3.22) and go to Format, Rows, Unhide to expand the cells.

Figure 3.22 Selecting the whole worksheet

2 Contracting and Expanding ColumnsThere are four different options you can choose for viewing columns, each of which can be accessed using the drop-down menu in row 1 (Figure 3.23):

o Click If you wish you view just the baseline data column (B).

o Click to show just the policy objectives columns (C, D & E).

o Click to show the baseline and policy objectives columns (B, C, D and E).

o Click in the worksheet, including the projec tion results.

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Figure 3.23 Contracting or Expanding Columns

3 Viewing and Moving WorksheetsThere are numerous worksheets used in EPSSim, therefore, displaying all the worksheet tabs at once is difficult. Users can click on the arrows on the bottom left-hand corner to shift from one worksheet to another (Figure 3.24). The first and the fourth arrows will jump straight to the beginning or the end of the set of spreadsheets whereas the second and third arrows will shift only one tab at a time in the direction in which the arrows are pointing. To change the order of the worksheets, simply click and drag the tabs.

Figure 3.24 Viewing and Moving worksheets

4 Saving EPSSimWhen closing or exiting EPSSim, you will be prompted: “Do you want to save the changes you made to …?” Select and choose then as, in order to save the simulation model with a different name (for example, EFASim.xls).


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Chapter 4 EPSSim 2.9b and 2.9c Utilities Menu

The EPSSim Utilities functions are designed to facilitate: 1) summarizing and displaying the data, 2) utilizing ready-to-use extra utilities for calculating educational indicators, and 3) familiarizing the model through pre-simulation exercises. In addition, there is a 4) language menu where users can convert EPSSim into five preset languages.

Figure 4.1 EPSSim Utilities Menu

As shown in Figure 4.2, there are six menus which can be drawn upon according to need. The uses of each of these menus will be detailed in this chapter.

Figure 4.2 EPSSim Utilities Menu

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4.1 Summaries TabThe Summaries menu is where you can find summarised data used in the process of simulation and projections in the form of Recapitulation, Snapshots of indicators and costs and Shapshots of unit costs (Figure 4.2). Clicking on the sub-menus under ‘Summaries’ will simply display the summarized projected data and no data entry is required.

1 Recapitulation (Primary to Higher) Worksheet

This submenu reiterates the results of the simulation and provides a recap of the projected educational inputs (including enrolments, teaching and non teaching staff, textbooks and teacher guides, infrastructures and facilities). Recapitulation outlines summarized data on four education levels: primary, secondary 1, secondary 2 and tertiary education.

2 Snapshot: Indicators and Costs Worksheet

This sub-menu displays projected educational indicators and costs, as well as the budgetary and finan cial framework by levels and type of education. There are three main titles related to indicators;

o Access and Equality presents summarized data on literacy rate, gross enrolment ratio, registration rates.

o Quality and Efficiency presents indicators including survival rate, wastage rate, pupil/teacher ratio, and pupil/classroom ratio.

o Budgetary and Financing Frameworks presents data on costs for all levels and types of education.

3 Snapshot: Unit Costs (Public)

This worksheet includes recurrent and capital 1) unit cost per pupil, 2) the costs as % of GDP per capita and 3) per capita costs for each level and type of education.

Unit costs per pupil (1) refer to total costs divided by the number of enrolled pupils for each education level and type. The cost as a percentage of GDP (2) per capita is used to measure the percentage of each unit cost in comparison to GDP per capita. In addition, the costs per capita (3) are calculated by dividing the costs by the total population.

Snapshot of unit costs is also placed in the same worksheet as Snapshot of indicators and costs, thus when you click Snapshot: Unit Costs in the Summaries menu, you will be directed to the same worksheet as snapshots but under the heading of Information on Unit Costs.

4 / EPSSim 2.9b and 2.9c Utilities Menu

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4.2 View ChartsThe View Charts menu offers six submenus on education indicators (Figure 4.3) where you can find charts on every education level and type.

Figure 4.3 View Charts Menu

1 Common format of Charts (Figure 4.4)

o X and Y axis: X axis refers to the year, which starts from the baseline year to the target year. Y axis presents the number of enrolled students, number of teachers, number of class-rooms, rates on efficiency indicators, percentage of GER, and scale of costs depending on the subject of the charts.

o Legend: The white description box underneath the chart that provides information on the level of education and explanation of the colored lines.

o Next and Previous: These buttons allow you to navigate between charts.

o Print: After clicking this button, the current chart will be printed automatically from your default printer.

o Editing the chart: It is not possible to edit the chart directly on the pop up box. Therefore, users should go to the worksheet named charts 1 through charts 6 to edit relevant charts.

2 Enrolments The enrolment rate of each education level and type is displayed in chart form (Figure 4.4). Click next to scroll through the enrolment rate charts for each level of education (pre-primary to tertiary). The blue line on the chart refers to the enrolment rate of male students and the pink refers to female students.

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Figure 4.4 Enrolments Chart

3 Teachers The charts on teachers show the total (blue line) and new requirements (pink line) of teachers. In version 2.9b, total requirements of teachers refer to the total number of teachers needed in both urban and rural areas. The figures underpinning the new teacher requirements refer to the teachers to be recruited to meet demand, taking into account the attrition rate.

4 New Constructions Clicking on the submenu New Constructions will launch the charts corresponding to school facilities. The charts draw on the total number of classrooms versus the number of new classrooms to be built.

5 Efficiency in Primary Education The efficiency charts display the results of the exercise with regard to the efficiency indicators (number of years wasted per 1000 pupils, survival rates, coefficient of efficiency, average study time of the cohort, wastage rate and completion rate in public primary school). These charts are related to the internal efficiency in primary school, which can be found in the cohort worksheet (COH) and which is explained further in Annex 3 below.

6 Gross Enrolments Ratios GER shows the charts on Gross Enrolment Ratios. The gross enrolment ratio refers to the total enrolment in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the eligible official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given school-year.


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It is calculated by dividing the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education by the population of the age-group which officially corresponds to the given level of education. The blue line on the chart refers to the GER of male students whereas the pink refers to the GER of female students.

7 Cost Projections Cost related data (recurrent and capital costs, total education costs, and funding gap) are presented in chart form under the sub-menu of “Cost Projections”.

4.3 Extra Utilities

The menu contains five submenus as shown in Figure 4.5. This menu serves as a tool to facilitate the calculation and generation of relevant data (submenus 1 to 3), to explain educational indicators (submenu 4) and to display the root menu sheet to be adapted if needed (submenu 5). Each of these is further explained below.

Figure 4.5 Extra Utilities

1 Calculate Flow Rates

This utility enables the user to calculate the flow rates (promotion, repetition and drop-out rates), which are to be informed in the education projection worksheets. To this end, users enter the enrolment data of two consecutive years and the number of repeaters in the second year (who are from the previous year) in the yellow cells. The flow rates will then be displayed in columns L through Q (Figure 4.6).

Figure 4.6 Calculating Flow Rates

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2 Cohort Analysis (Also See Annex 3)

This utility enables users to calculate a number of efficiency indicators of an education system using the reconstituted cohort analysis technique. Users are required to specify the information in the yellow cells (A3 to A5), namely entering the starting year, number of grades to analyze, and the number of times that students are allowed to repeat (choose either 2 or 3). This will provide the structure of further data entry. Then click Start/Restart and fill in the remaining yellow cells. This operation will display the flow rates and the indicators of internal efficiency including basic efficiency indicators, average duration of study, wasted years by pupil, and survival rates (Figure 4.7).

Figure 4.7 Cohort Analysis

Sprague Multipliers

The Sprague Multipliers calculate age-specific population data when population data are only available by age group (most frequently by 5-year groupings, for example, from the age 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 etc). In essence, it is a disaggregation tool to obtain age specific population figures.

This utility can be used in two ways:

o Click the button and a box will appear. Enter the age group population data then click . Age-specific population data will be auto-matically calculated and displayed from age 0 to 24 (school ages). You can insert up to five different sets of population data on one worksheet (Figure 4.8, below).

o Alternatively, within the same worksheet, if you need a complete series of age specific data, go down to cell B63 to find a more comprehensive form of Sprague multipliers, which serve the same purpose but provides age specific data up to the age of 75+. Insert the age-group population data in the yellow cells. Once you enter the data on four age groups, age-specific data will start appearing in the green cells (Figure 4.9, below).


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Figure 4.8 Sprague Multipliers 1

Figure 4.9 Sprague Multipliers 2

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3 Educational Indicators

Through this menu users can find the definitions of educational indicators and the method by which they are calculated. Indicators are categorized into: enrolment ratios, intake rates, flow and transition rates, outputs and efficiency of the system, teacher-related indicators, infrastructure related indicators, literacy rates and linear or exponential growth.

As shown in Figure 4.10 below, eight different categories of indicators are listed and explained. Clicking the blue titles at the top will open indicator definitions for that category (for example, clicking ENROLMENT RATIOS, will reveal the definitions and calculations for Gross enrolment ratio (GER), Net enrolment ratio (NER) and Age specific enrolment ratio (ASER). The indicators are calculated in the yellow cells, so by double clicking the yellow cells, you will be able to see the formulae used in calculation. It is advisable to spend some time going through each indicator in this worksheet as it will help you to understand the indicators and functioning of the EPSSim simulation (please note that practice exercises on each are also embedded into the model, see Part 2: Practicing EPSSim).

Figure 4.10 Educational Indicators

4 Show Menu Sheet

This utility allows users to customize the name and the order of the menu displayed on the drop down menu bar according to the specific terminology used in their own education system, for example, ‘Elementary Education’ might be used instead of ‘Primary Education’ (Figure 4.11). There is for menus within EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c and for menus within EPSSim Utilities. To access these worksheets, choose Show Menu Sheet under Extra Utilities (Figure 4.5). Two worksheets will appear next to the Start worksheet. You can also access these worksheets by clicking the button on the Start menu.


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Figure 4.11 Menu Sheet

Column A, , refers to the position of each menu. Inserting 1 will make the corresponding menu appear as a main menu on the menu bar. Level 2 indicates the menu items under the main menu and 3 specifies submenu items under the menu item 2.

In Column B, , relates to the names of the actual captions (headings) as they appear on the menu. Column C refers to the position and , which can be modified further by using Visual Basic Editor, if necessary. Column D specifies whether there is a (True) or not (blank) in between the submenu items (a line appears in between the menus when you write True). In addition, is linked to the icons appearing on the left-hand side of the sub menus. Each icon has identity numbers, which can be written on the column E and corresponding Face ID will appear.

As shown in Figure 4.11, EPSSim 2.9b or 2.9c is set as level 1, hence showing on the main menu bar. The second levels are in red and shown on the menu items under EPSSim 2.9b/2.9c with dividers separating groups of menus. Next to each menu items (on the right-hand side of the menu), there are sub menus, which are given number 3 on the menu sheet. The same rule applies to EPSSim Utilities.

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Chapter 5 Customizing EPSSim

As outlined in Chapter 1, EPSSim is a generic simulation model which has been designed to facili-tate adaptation at the country level. While this process can be time-consuming, it is crucial to ensuring that the model reflects the distinctive characteristics of a country’s education system and its corresponding policy priorities. In turn, country-level adaptation helps to ensure that the model produces credible results which support effective planning and implementation.

Presented below are the basic adaptations a generic model may need. However, the presentation is not exhaustive and one may think of further adaptation depending on the national education system structures and country specific needs.

5.1 The Structure of the Educational systemDepending on the educational system of each country, the level and the type of education system may be defined differently. Firstly, there are differences in the ways in which countries structure education, for example: 1) the names of each level and type of education; 2) the age of the pupil population; and 3) the number of grades in each level of educational system, amongst other things. Secondly, countries also employ 4) specific policies which need to be integrated if the model is to reflect the education system as a whole.

Generally, there are six years of primary education, three years of lower secondary education, another three years of upper secondary education and higher education including university education or other tertiary education. There may also be pre-primary, early childhood programmes and non-formal education programmes. However, if the educational system is different and the terminology differs (i.e. primary education is not six years in length and called elementary school), users must make changes accordingly.

1 Changing the Names of Each Level and Type of EducationUsers can change the names of each educational level and type by modifying the names on the

worksheet (Figure 5.1). VOC stands for vocabularies and it contains all the text which is used in EPSSim. By opening the VOC worksheet, users may find the cells referring to the education levels and where they need to make changes and re-write the name of the educational levels and types on the yellow columns of the worksheet. For example, if you are changing something in English, make changes on columns F through J. Then go to languages under the EPSSim Utilities menu and click English again to reflect what you have modified.

In addition, users can change the name of the worksheet by double clicking each worksheet tab and re-writing the name or right click on the relevant tab and choose rename to change.

5 / Customising EPSSim

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Figure 5.1 VOC worksheet

2 The Age of the Pupil Population Enrolment and graduation ages also differ across countries. In primary education, for example, a student population of children aged 6 to 11 is used in the generic model. However, this might differ depending on the enrolment age and the years of each level of the educational system in a given country.

The age of each level and type of education is determined from the worksheet, which then translates into the figures in each of the sub-sectoral worksheets. As shown in Figure 5.2, the sub sectoral worksheets will remind you to check the reference ages as these will affect the intake rates and the population age ranges. You can make changes from each level of the education worksheet, first on the intake rate at grade 1 and then on the school age population (see Figure 5.2).

Figure 5.2 Setting the age population for each level and type of education

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3 The Number of Grades for Each Level of EducationThe number of grades by education level also differ across countries. Therefore, if what is provided in the generic model is not relevant, you can either delete the relevant row in the worksheet6 or enter “0” in the baseline value to indicate it is not applicable. In addition, by double-clicking the cell on the grades, you can edit the name grades and change to year 1 or 1st year instead of grade 1 (Figure 5.3).

Figure 5.3 Modifying the number of grades

For example, as shown in the Figure 5.3, rows for grades 7 to 9 are provided in the generic model for those countries with more than 6 years in primary schooling. If a country only has up to grade 6, the rows corresponding from grade 7 to grade 9 should be deleted or zeros added.

4 Adding Specific Education ProgrammesThe EPSSim model is designed to be capable of incorporating specific programmes in operation in an education system. To add or modify a programme, go to the corresponding worksheets (level and type of education) and insert rows or delete rows according to your needs. You may copy/paste the structure of the specific programmes from what is already provided in the generic version and pay careful attention to the adaptation. For further practise on these aspects, please refer to the adaptation exercises in the second part of the handbook.

5.2 Customizing Educational StaffThe section includes teaching and non-teaching staff in a given level and type of educational system. Categories of teachers or non-teaching staff could differ according to the educational system of each country. It is therefore required to name in the worksheet the different categories to accurately reflect the education system that is simulated. Educational staff costs represent the main share of expenses. When naming the categories in the projection worksheets, one may think that they are then reflected in the COST sheet where unit costs are inputted. In that

6 Please note that by deleting the irrelevant rows, you would need to pay attention to possible broken links across the work-sheets. The broken links in the formulae will be indicated as #REF!


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sense, it is critical to group the teachers and non-teaching staff according to coherent salary scale categories as well. For instance, below are examples of teaching and non-teaching staff categories. For instance, categories of teaching staff could be disaggregated according to the work experience (e.g. junior, senior), the functions (e.g. heads, teachers, assistants), the level of qualification (e.g. qualified, unqualified, trained/untrained), the contractual arrangements (e.g. civil servants, con trac-tual teachers, community teachers).

Figure 5.4 Classifying categories of teachers

5.3 Choosing Education Indicators for Viewing Scenarios When you generate scenarios (Scenario function in the EPSSim menu), the generic EPSSim 2.9 has a predefined set of indicators which are displayed. For ease of comparison, the scenarios and their corresponding outcomes by indicator appear on the one page. However, if you do not wish to include some of the indicators or if you want to add different indicators, it is possible to do so by going to the worksheet and changing or adding the relevant indicators in the column that function as bridging cells and make sure that the formulae are correct from column AB and onwards.

5.4 MACROSA macro is a set of codified instructions that are scripted, saved, and typically assigned to a short key. In other words, it is a short programme written to automate several and/or repetitive steps. Macros can be found in many types of software, such as spreadsheets and word processing. They consist of a list of several operations saved in a file which can be called up from within e.g. the

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Excel programme. When called up by a single word or even a single letter, the entire list of specified operations is executed.

A number of macros have been designed to improve the user-friendliness of EPSSim and to automate the consultation of the projected results. The macros are made possible by means of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA),7 scripted on the Visual Basic Editor. The three typical elements of Excel Visual Basic Editor are (i) Microsoft Excel Objects, (ii) Forms, and (iii) Modules.

If you want to change some of the macros, first you have to identify the name of the concerned macro programme by opening the worksheet entitled MenuSheet (Menu EPSSim utilities / Extra Utiities/ Show Menu Sheet). Then, look for the names of the macros under Column C against the captions (menu items) listed under Column B. Once you have identified the name of the particular macro, access the Visual Basic Editor (in Excel 2010 – hit the VIEW menu on the Excel tool bar and choose the MACROS /DISPLAY the macros), look for the name of the macro and click on “modify”. Macros usually start with “Sub MacroName” and end with “End Sub”.

Those who wish to learn more about VBA should refer to the many other available sources (website, documents or tutorials) dealing with VBA.

7 VBA stands for Visual Basic for Applications, the official name of which is Visual Basic, Applications Edition. VBA is Microsoft’s common application programming (macro) language for Access, Excel, and the Visual Basic programming environment.


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ANNEXES EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

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Annexes

1 EPSSim Features8 This chart summarizes at a glance the main features and dimensions of the EPSSim model directly available in its generic version without any adaptation. With slight or substantial customization, any of these features can be adapted and/or, removed.

1 SCHOOL SYSTEM

Progressive Phases

Pre-Primary Disaggregated by grade: up to 3 years, plus earlier age care programmes

Primary Disaggregated by grade: up to 9 years

SecondaryDisaggregated by grade: up to 6 years each of lower/upper

HigherAggregated cycles– no progressive phase by grade or sub-level

Teacher trainingAggregated cycles – no progressive phase by grade

Non-formalDisaggregated by grade: up to 2 years for adult literacy programmes

Parallel Streams

SecondaryGeneral/technical/vocational at Lower Secondary and Upper Secondary

Higher 2 types (university, other) x 5 specialisations

Teacher training 4 specialisations

Non-formalLiteracy/school reintegration/ 4 other programmes

Providers (public/private at all levels except Non-Formal Education)

Geographic Units Rural/urban in EPSSim version 2.9b

8 Source: Education Simulation Models in Use across UNESCO, a review of technical features, UNESCO Discussion Paper, January 2009

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ANNEXES

2 STUDENT FLOWS

Intake Decision variable

Repetition Decision variable

Promotion Decision variable

3 STAFF

Categories with Differential Demand

Up to 4 different categories of teachers + up to 3 different categories of head-teachers and other non-teaching staff (labels differ between phases)

Categories with Differential Costs As above

Categories with differential flows (incl. attrition) Teaching staff/non-teaching

By Subject/Phase 4 subject areas

By Certification 1 level

4 STAFF FLOWS

Teacher-training output Provided in the Teacher-Training worksheet

RecruitmentTotal number calculated in Teacher-Training worksheet as well as directly in the sub-sector sheets – staff section “new teachers”

Resignation Rolled into “attrition rate variable”

Retirement Rolled into the “attrition rate variable”

Death Rolled into the "attrition rate variable”

EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

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5 STAFF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Staff Demand Calculation

Pupil-teacher ratio (pre-primary, primary and Non-Formal Education); class size + weekly hours + teacher utilisation (Secondary education, Higher Education, Teacher Training)

Staff Demand-Supply GapOver-/undersupply of new trainees in current year indicated in the Teacher Training worksheet, no disaggregation

6 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

Gender

Disaggregated incl. flow rates

Parity indices

Available in the snapshot worksheet “indicators and costs” proposed in EPSSim utilities

HIV/ AIDS

HIV prevalence among students

To simulate special attendance to HIV students and teachers in the module “Costing HIV/AIDS impact and

HIV prevalence among teachers Same as above

AIDS-attributable costs Same as above

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ANNEXES

7 EFFICIENCY

Wastage / Efficiency CoefficientProvided in the module “Internal efficiency according to reconstituted cohort analysis method”

Student-years per GraduateProvided in the module “Internal efficiency according to reconstituted cohort analysis method”

Survival Rates Same as above

Graduation Rate Same as above

Average Study TimePer graduate, per drop-out in the module “Internal efficiency according to reconstituted cohort analysis method”

8 CAPITAL INVESTMENTS

New Classrooms to ConstructAs a result variable according to a PCR (pupil class-room ratio) in pre-primary and primary education and classroom utilization rates in upper levels

Classrooms to Replace/RepairAs a result variable according to an amortization ratio (see glossary in EPSSim model for more information on the amortization rate).

Double-Shift Classrooms As a decision variable

Provision of other `per x students/staff/classroom/school' facilities

Staff rooms, latrines, labs, other rooms (all per x classrooms)

Other

Comprehensive Child-Friendly School (UNICEF) and Additional Demand-Side Intervention (UNDP) components with additional per-student, per-teacher, per-school capital costs


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9 RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

SalariesGross annual salary indexed on the GDP per capita

Other `per x students/ staff/ classrooms/ school' recurrent

Textbooks, school feeding, other (per x students); teaching guides, other (per class); maintenance (per room); staff development (per x teachers)

Other Non-Proportional Recurrent

Bursaries, central administration (baseline + extrapolated growth), various (curriculum dev. etc.) as percentage overhead of total recurrent

Other

Comprehensive Child-Friendly School and Additional Demand-Side Intervention components with additional per-student, per-teacher, per-school recurrent costs

10 FINANCING

Government Education Budget

Projections estimated via GDP growth × gov. share × education share

Donor SupportTime series of past and present data to be inputted- projections are unlikely to be accurate given the volatility of the external financing support

Household ContributionsHelps determining School Fees Abolition policies for basic education

Determination of Funding Gap

Automatically generated: total costs of education (needs-based) / total education financing (all the sources of incomes)

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ANNEXES

Model Operation

11 DECISION FLOW

Decision Flow

baseline data

assumptions for flows

resource utilisation

item costs

future enrolments

required expenditure

required construction/ recruitment activities

indicators of interest

12 PRESENTATION AND ORGANISATION

Organisationby education level, by category of inputs (students, teachers, capital, recurrent) within phases; costs, efficiency etc. separately

Visualisationsome automatically generated graphs and recaps according to the simulation results

Summary Sheet key assumptions and major simulation results


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13 PROJECTION

Flexibility of Time Series Inputs (assumptions or targets)

Linear (for non-cost) and exponential (for cost-related) Interpolation (flexibility optional, through CTRL+SHIFT+A or B)

Time series can be extended as much as needed. However, accuracy of the projections proportionally decline.

Monitoring [forecast vs actual] For constructions

Handling of Uncertainty Scenario functions

14 AVAILABILITY

Online download Documentation and model

Hard-Copy On request from UNESCO

15 SKILL REQUIREMENTS

to run1 Basic spreadsheet use2

Pre-defined Adaptations Basic spreadsheet use2

arbitrary adaptations Spreadsheet design3, macro-programming

Notes:1 entering data, extracting results, changing assumptions etc.2 `basic spreadsheet use’ refers to entering data into cells, deleting rows/columns etc.3 ̀spreadsheet design’ goes beyond `basic use’ in requiring the definition of functions

and cell calculations etc.

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ANNEXES

16 IT RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS

Computing Platform[with macros] Microsoft Windows/ [without macros] any capable of running MS Excel compatible spreadsheets

Application[with macros] Microsoft Excel/ [without macros] MS Excel or compatible spreadsheet

Licensing cost[with macros] software licences for above/ [without macros] works under free OpenOffice, should work under free Linux

17 GUIDANCE AND SUPPORT

documentation Print, PDF in English, French, Spanish (out-of-date)

help function In the model and by email: [email protected]

glossary/definitionsWithin application and documentation, explanation and formulae

in-line explanationsComments are provided in some cells to help the data inputting job

ExercisesEducation indicators calculation exercises, simulation exercises

prompted data-entry Through colour-code



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2 Worksheets used in EPSSim 2.9

Name of the worksheet

Description Function

StartStart or introductory page

Selection of Languages, Displaying or hiding all worksheets, Access to the flowchart and Setting the Baseline Year.

MenuSheet EPSSim 2.9b Menu Displays list of EPSSim 2.9b Menus.

MenuUtil EPSSim Utilities Menu List of EPSSim Utilities Menus.

VOC Vocabulary Sheet

Contains all the structure and texts on EPSSim in 5 languages with a template column. Amendments can be made from this page.

POPPopulation and Dropout Children Data

Population projections and number of dropout children are calculated.

ECCEPre-Primary School and Early Childhood Care Programme

Simulation and projections of Pre-school education and Early Childhood Care Programme on Enrolments, Staff, Infrastructure and Teaching Materials.

PRIM Primary EducationSimulation and projections of primary school education on Enrolments, Staff, Infrastructure and Teaching Materials.

SEC1 Secondary Education ISimulation and projection of Secondary 1 Education including Enrolment, Staff, Infrastructure and Teaching Materials.

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ANNEXES

SEC2 Secondary Education IISimulation and projection of Secondary 2 Education including Enrolment, Staff, Infrastructure and Teaching Materials.

HEDHigher Education (University and Other Tertiary Education)

Simulation and projection of Higher Education including Enrolment, Staff and Infrastructure.

TED Teacher Education

Simulation and projections on Pre-service teacher education programme and In-service teacher education programme and its Costs.

NFE Non Formal Education

Projection of Non-Formal Education involving:

1. Literacy, 2. School Reintegration Programmes

for dropouts and youths, 3. NFE: Specific Non Formal

Education Programmes

COST Cost Projections

1. Projections/simulations by Education level and type (Cost projections for ECCE, PRIM, SEC1, SEC2, HED, TED and NFE)

2. Expenditure Framework

3. Balance: Budget vs. Simulation

ViewScenario Viewing Scenarios Viewing Generated Scenarios.


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CFSChild Friendly School Features

Additional Costing on CFS features that is linked up to COST worksheet.

HIVHIV/AIDS Impacts and Response in Education

Additional Costing on HIV/AIDS that is linked up to COST worksheet.

ADDAdditional Demand Side Interventions

Additional Costing on Additional Demand Side Interventions that is linked up to COST worksheet.

RECAPRecapitulation for PRIM, SEC, and HED

Summary of Enrolments, Staff, Teaching Materials and Infrastructure.

SNAPSSnapshot of Indicators and Costs

Summary of Access and Equality, Quality and Efficiency, Budgetary and Financing Framework and Unit Costs.

COHInternal Efficiency on Primary Education

Displays Internal Efficiency indicators on Primary Education.

Flow Flow Rate CalculatorUsed to calculate Flow rates (Promotion, Repetition and Dropout rates).

Sprague Sprague MultiplierDisaggregation tool of grouped population data.

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ANNEXES

COHE Cohort AnalysisCalculation of Internal Efficiency.

EXER1Viewing Scenarios of Pre-Simulation

Viewing Generated Pre-simulation Scenarios.

EXER2 Pre-Simulation ExercisePre-simulation Exercise on Primary Education.

Charts 1-6 Collection of Charts

Charts 1: Enrolments Charts 2: Teachers Charts 3: New Constructions Charts 4: Efficiency Indicators Charts 5: Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) Charts 6: Cost Projections

Glossary Definitions of IndicatorsExplanation on Indicators used in EPSSim, which can also be found from Show Indicators menu.


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3 Assessing Internal Efficiency by Cohort Analysis

The assessment of internal efficiency and ‘wastage’ in education9 uses techniques similar to those used in cohort analysis in demography. A cohort is defined as a group of persons who jointly experience a series of specific events over a period of time.

There are three ways to analyse the internal efficiency of an education system by means of the cohort pupil flow method, depending on the type of data collected: (i) true cohort, (ii) apparent cohort, and (iii) reconstructed cohort.

The ideal way to obtain a precise assessment of educational wastage is through the use of the true cohort method. This involves either a tracer (longitudinal) study to monitor the progress of a selected cohort of pupils through the education cycle, or through a retrospective study of school records in order to retrace the flows of pupils through the grades in past years. However, the true cohort method is costly and time-consuming, and requires reliable school records with information on individual pupils. For this reason, this method is not yet widely used.

In the absence of individualised pupil information, internal efficiency in education can be assessed from data on enrolment by grade for at least two consecutive years using either the apparent or reconstructed cohort methods.

9 ‘Wastage’ refers to the combined effect of grade repetition and drop-out.

67

ANNEXES

The apparent cohort method is applied when there is no data on repeaters. Then the enrolment in grade 1 in a particular year is compared with enrolment in the successive grades during successive years, and it is assumed that the decrease from each grade to the next corresponds to wastage. This method, the most commonly used so far, produces very approximate estimates of drop-out, and its main weakness is that it assumes that pupils are either promoted or drop-out of the school system. Repetition, a factor of paramount importance, is simply overlooked. However, this method is quite appropriate for countries practicing automatic promotion from grade to grade.

A more pertinent and commonly used method is the reconstructed cohort method, which is less dependent on the availability of detailed data over time. To apply this method, data on enrolment by grade for two consecutive years, together with data on repeaters by grade from the first to second year, are sufficient to enable the estimation of three main flow-rates: promotion, repetition and drop-out. Once obtained, these rates may be analysed first of all by grade to study the patterns of repetition and drop-out. Then they can be used to reconstruct a pupil-cohort flow in order to derive other indicators of internal efficiency. This is illustrated below using data from Guinea.


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1 COMPUTATION OF THE FLOW-RATES USING DATA ON ENROLMENT AND REPEATERS

The methodology of the reconstructed cohort flow model is based on the fundamental concept that for pupils enrolled in a given grade in a given year, there can be only three eventualities: (a) some of them will be promoted to the next higher grade in the next school year; (b) others will repeat the same grade in the next school year; and (c) the remaining pupils will drop-out of school in the course of the year.

Based on this concept, the sample data above permit the computation of the three flow-rates. For instance, of the 123,702 pupils enrolled in grade 1 in 1993:

1 33,539 repeated grade 1 in 1994, i.e. 27.1%.

2 86,815 were promoted, i.e. 70.2% (113,882 enrolled in grade 2 in 1994 minus 27,067 who repeated that grade in 1994.

3 3,348 dropped-out, i.e. 2.7% (the residual of 123,702 minus 86,815 and minus 33,539).

Thus, the corresponding flow-rates are p = 0.702; r = 0.271; d = 0.027, which add up to 1 or 100%.

By applying the same type of computation on a grade-by-grade basis, one can obtain the following flow-rates by grade.

2 RECONSTRUCTION OF SCHOOL ‘HISTORY’: HYPOTHETICAL FLOW DIAGRAM OF THE COHORT THROUGH PRIMARY EDUCATION IN GUINEA

Based on these above flow-rates, the flow of a fictitious cohort of 1,000 pupils through the primary education cycle can be reconstructed below, based on three assumptions:

1 That at any given grade, the same rates of repetition, promotion, and drop-out apply, regardless of whether a pupil has reached that grade directly or after one or more repetitions (hypothesis of homogenous behaviour);

2 That there will be no additional pupils (new entrants) in any of the subsequent years during the life-time of the cohort, other than original cohort of 1,000 pupils;

3 That the number of times any pupil will be allowed to repeat a grade must be well defined.

69

ANNEXES

To reconstruct the history of 123,702 pupils entering grade 1 in Guinea in 1993, it is easier to express this starting cohort as an index of 1,000 pupils, and all operations are consequently trans-lated in ‘per thousand’ terms. Thus, when applying each flow-rate for grade 1 to this fictitious cohort of 1,000 pupils (instead of the actual 123,702 pupils), one finds that 271 pupils repeated grade 1 (27.1%); 27 dropped-out (2.7%), and 702 were promoted to grade 2 (70.2%). Using the flow-rates for grade 2 on the 702 pupils reaching grade 2, one can derive that 171 repeated grade 2 (24.4%); 32 dropped-out (4.6%), and 499 were promoted to grade 3 (71%) and so on. It may be noted that the first diagonal row in the diagram below (next page) is obtained by multiplying the successive promotion rates for successive grades and successive years. The repetition and drop-out rates are then applied to obtain the second, the third and the fourth rows.

From this flow diagram, one can draw a number of interesting observations. For instance, out of the initial 1,000 pupils entering grade 1, only 46 graduated from the cycle without repeating any grade; 88 graduated with a one year delay, i.e. they repeated one grade; 98 graduated with two years delay, i.e. they repeated twice; and 84 graduated after repeating three times.

In addition, this flow diagram enables the computation of the main indicators of internal efficiency. For example, the figures in the boxes below the diagram give the number of pupils reaching a particular grade, thus enabling the calculation of the survival rates by grade. One can observe that 958 out of the 1,000 pupils in the cohort (or 95.8 per cent) reached grade 2. These figures can be easily derived from the upper part of the diagram, by summing the number of drop-outs from each grade and each year and subtracting that sum from the enrolment in the same grade. For grade 1 we obtain 27+7+2+6 = 42 drop-outs, which when subtracted from 1000 would give 958 survivals. Finally by summing the drop-outs from each grade (42+69+126+122+149+175) we find a total of 683 pupils who dropped out without completing primary education (as graduates). Thus, out of the initial pupil-cohort of 1,000, only 317, or about 32 per cent, graduated from the primary cycle.


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Multiplying this number of graduates by the number of grades (317 x 6 = 1902) would give the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce the graduates. The ratio between the latter and the actual number of pupil-years used by the cohort, i.e. 6534, gives the coefficient of efficiency (1902*6535 = 0.291 or 29%). The years input per graduate (20.6 years) is obtained by dividing the total number of pupil-years spent by the cohort (6534) by the total number of graduates (317). The years input per graduate can then be compared to the ideal number required, which is simply the duration of the education cycle -- 6 years in this example.

According to the above figures, one may conclude that due to repetition and drop-out, it was necessary to use more than three times the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce the 317 graduates. The input-output ratio, which is the reciprocal of the coefficient of efficiency, can be calculated by dividing the years input per graduate by the prescribed duration of the education cycle (i.e. 20.6*6 = 3.4). The ideal minimum value of this ratio is 1, meaning that there is no repetition or drop-out.

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ANNEXESEPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

How well the derived indicators describe the way in which a cohort actually progresses through a cycle of education depends on the validity of the assumptions on which this model is based and the reliability of the statistical data available for estimating the flow rates. It is important to note that since data on promotees and drop-outs are generally not directly available, errors in the data available on enrolment and repeaters would affect the estimates derived for these two flows. Three common errors that may distort the flow rates can be described as follows:

1 Over-reporting of enrolment/repeaters (particularly in grade 1). This may be deliberate when there is a financial incentive; for example, if the number of teachers paid by the government is related to the number of pupils enrolled. A different type of over-reporting occurs in countries where parents enrol their children in school at the beginning of the school year, but where a large number of those enrolled do not actually attend school or only attend for a very brief period.

2 Incorrect distinction between new entrants and repeaters. This leads, other things being equal, to an under-reporting of repeaters in grade 1 and to an over-estimation of drop-out from this grade.

3 Yearly variation in the coverage of the data. Assume that, for one reason or another, the data available for year t are complete while those for year t+1 are incomplete. Disregarding other types of errors, this implies that the number of promotees and repeaters in t+1 will be under-estimated and the number of drop-outs over-estimated. If, in addition, the data for school-year t+2 are complete, this will imply that some of the promotees and repeaters that year were not included in the enrolment the previous year, leading to over-estimation of the promotion and repetition rates and under-estimation of the drop-out rate, which may appear negative in some cases.

While the errors discussed under points 1 and 2 above probably affect mainly the flow rates for the first grade of primary education, incomplete data will naturally distort the rates for all grades. All these types of error can lead to biases in the indicators of internal efficiency. Since the drop-out rate is determined as a residual, it often serves as a test for some of these errors: a negative drop-out rate, particularly, is a sign of errors in the raw data, i.e. reported enrolment and repeaters.

Note: A comparison of the apparent cohort and reconstructed cohort methods shows that neglecting the repetition factor (apparent cohort method) leads to an under-estimation of survival rates and an over-estimation of drop-out to the same worksheet as snapshots but under the heading of Information on Unit Costs.

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4 GLOSSARY OF INDICATORS

Total enrolment in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the eligible official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education in a given school-year. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age-group which officially corresponds to the given level of education.

Formula:

GER ht =

E ht

Ph, at

Where:

GER h

t = Gross Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t.

E ht= Enrolment at the level of education h in school-year t.

Ph, a

t= Population in age-group a which officially corresponds to the level of education h in

school-year t.

Enrolment of the official age-group for a given level of education expressed as a percentage of the corresponding population. It is computed by dividing the number of pupils enrolled who are of the official age-group for a given level of education by the population for the same age-group.

Formula:

NER ht =

E h, at

Ph, at

Where:

NER ht= Net Enrolment Ratio at level of education h in school-year t.

E h, at= Enrolment of the population of age-group a at level of education h in school-year t.

Ph, at= Population in age-group a, which officially corresponds to level of education h in

school-year t.

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Percentage of the population of a specific age enrolled, irrespective of the level of education. To calculate this ratio, divide the number of pupils (or students) of a specific age enrolled in educational institutions at all levels of education by the population of the same age.

Formula:

ASER a

t =E a

t

P t

Where:

ASER at= Age Specific Enrolment Ratio of the population of age a in school-year t.

E at= Enrolment of the population of age a in school-year t.

Pat= Population of age a in school-year t.

Total number of new entrants in the first grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population at the official primary school-entrance age. The rate is calculated by dividing the number of new entrants in grade 1, irrespective of age, by the population of official school-entrance age.

Formula:

GIR t =N t

Pat

Where:

GIR t= Gross (Apparent) Intake Rate in school-year t.

N t= Number of new entrants in the first grade of primary education, in school-year

Pat= Population of official primary school entrance-age a, in school-year t.

New entrants in the first grade of primary education who are of the official primary school-entrance age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the same age. It is calculated by dividing the number of children of official primary school-entrance age who enter the first grade of primary education by the population of the same age.

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Formula:

NIR t =N a

t

Pat

Where:

NIR t

= Net Intake Rate in school-year t.taN = Number of children of official primary school-entrance age a who enter the first grade

of primary education, in school-year t.

Pat= Population of official primary school-entrance age a, in school-year t.

The proportion of pupils enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who will at the beginning of the following school-year, be enrolled in the next higher grade. There are two possible ways of calculating this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of promotees by grade. If such data are available, “Formula 1” can be used, in which case, the number of promotees by grade in school-year t+1 is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade in school-year t. Otherwise, “Formula 2” is used when data on the number of promotees by grade are not available; the number of repeaters by grade in school-year t+1 are deducted from the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by the number of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t.

Formulae:

pit =

pi+1t+1

E it

or

pit =

E i+1t+1 − Ri+1

t+1

E it

Where:tip = Promotion Rate at grade i in school-year t.

pi+1t+1

= number of pupils promoted to grade i+1 in school-year +1.

E i+1t+1

= number of pupils enrolled in grade i +1 in school-year t +1.

E it= number of pupils repeating grade i +1 in school-year t +1.

Ri+1t+1

= number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t.

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Proportion of pupils from a cohort enrolled in a given grade at a given school-year who study in the same grade in the following school-year. To calculate it, divide the number of repeaters in a given grade in school-year t +1 by the number of pupils from the same cohort enrolled in the same grade in the previous school-year t.

Formula (1):

rit =

Rit+1

E it

Where:

rit= Repetition Rate at grade i in school-year t.

Rit+ i

= number of pupils repeating grade i, in school-year t+1.

E it= number of pupils enrolled in grade i, in school-year t.

It is the proportion of pupils leaving school without completing a given grade in a given school-year expressed as a percentage of those who were enrolled at the same grade in the beginning of the same grade in the beginning of the same school-year. There are two possible ways of calculating this indicator, depending on the availability of data on the number of drop-outs by grade. If such data are available, “Formula 1” can be used, in which case, number of drop-outs by grade in school-year t is divided by the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding grade in school-year t. Otherwise, “Formula 2” is used when data on the number of dropouts are not available; the number of repeaters and promotees by grade in school-year t +1are deducted from the number of pupils enrolled in the corresponding school-year and the difference is then divided by the number of pupils enrolled in corresponding grade in school-year t.

Formula (2):

dit =

E it − (Ri

t+1 + Pi+1t+1)

E it

Where:

dit = Dropout Rate at grade i in school-year t.

E it −(Ri

t+1 + Pi+1t+1) = number of pupils dropping out from grade i in school-year t.

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The number of pupils (or students) admitted to the first grade of a higher level of education in a given year, expressed as a percentage of the number of pupils (or students) enrolled in the final grade of the lower level of education in the previous year. To calculate this rate, divide the number of new entrants in the first grade of the specified higher cycle or level of education by the number of pupils who were enrolled in the final grade of the preceding cycle or level of education in the previous school year.

Formula:

TR h, h+1t =

E h+1,1t+1 − Rh+1,1

t+1

E h, nt

Where:

TR h, h+1t

= Transition rate (from cycle or level of education h to h +1 in school year t).

E h+1,1t+1

= number of pupils enrolled in first grade at level of education h +1 in school-year t +1.

Rh+1,1t+1

= number of pupils repeating first grade at level of education h +1 in school-year t +1

E h, nt

= number of pupils enrolled in final grade n at level of education h in school year t.

The total number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or secondary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population of the official primary or secondary graduation age. It can be calculated by dividing the number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or secondary education by the population at the official graduation age.

Formula:

GCR ht =

C ht

Ph, at

Where:

GCR ht = Gross Completion Rate at level of education h in school-year t.

C ht = number of students completing (or graduating from) the final year of primary or

secondary education h in school-year t.

Ph, at = Population at the official graduation age a which officially corresponds to the level

of primary or secondary education h in school-year t.

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In fact, in the absence of information on graduates, the completion rate is often proxied by the following formula (here applied to the primary case):

Percentage of a cohort of pupils (or students) enrolled in the first grade of a given level or cycle of education in a given school-year who are expected to reach successive grades. Calculate it by dividing the total number of pupils belonging to a school-cohort who reached each successive grade of the specified level of education by the number of pupils in the school-cohort i.e. those originally enrolled in the first grade of primary education.

Formula:

SRg, ik =

Pg, it

t=1

m

∑E g

k

Where:

Pg, it = E g, i+1

t+1 − Rg, i+1t+1

i = grade (1, 2, 3,…,n) t = year (1, 2, 3, …,m) g = pupil-cohort.

SRg, ik

= Survival Rate of pupil-cohort g at grade i for a reference year k.

E gk = Total number of pupils belonging to a cohort g at a reference year k.

Pg, it

= Promotees from E gkwho would join successive grades i throughout successive years t.

Rit = Number of pupils repeating grade i in school-year t.

The ideal (optimal) number of pupil-years required (i.e. in the absence of repetition and drop-out) to produce a number of graduates from a given school-cohort for a cycle or level of education expressed as a percentage of the actual number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number of graduates. Input-output ratio, which is the reciprocal of the coefficient of efficiency, is often used as an alternative. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is counted as one pupil-year. This indicator can be calculated by dividing the ideal number of pupil-years required to produce a number of graduates from a given school-cohort for the specified level of education, by the actual number of pupil-years spent to produce the same number of graduates.

No. of students in the last primary grade – repeating students

Population of the official age group for the last primary grade

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Formula:

CE g =G g, j

t * nj =n

n+ k

∑

G g, jt * j

j =n

n+ k

∑⎧ ⎨ ⎩

⎫ ⎬ ⎭

+ Dg, jt * j

j =1

n+ k

∑⎧ ⎨ ⎩

⎫ ⎬ ⎭

Where:

CE g = Coefficient of Efficiency for a pupil-cohort g.

G g, n = the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in final grade n after n years of study

(without repetition).

D g, j = the number of pupils graduating from cohort g in final grade n after years of study.

G g, j = the number of pupils (of the cohort g) dropping out after j years of study.

k denotes the number of repetitions allowed;

n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education;

g the pupil-cohort; and

j the number of years of study.

The estimated average number of pupil-years spent by pupils (or students) from a given cohort who graduate from a given cycle or level of education, taking into account the pupil-years wasted due to drop-out and repetition. N.B. One school-year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. To calculate this indicator, divide the total number of pupil-years spent by a pupil-cohort (graduates plus drop-outs) in the specified level of education by the sum of successive batch of graduates belonging to the same cohort.

Formula:

YIG g =

G g, j * jj =n

n+ k

∑⎧ ⎨ ⎩

⎫ ⎬ ⎭

+ Dg, j * jj =1

n+ k

∑⎧ ⎨ ⎩

⎫ ⎬ ⎭

G g, jj =n

n+ k

∑Where:

YIG g= Years input per graduate (for graduates belonging to cohort g).

G g, j = Graduates from cohort g after j years of study.

D g, j = drop-outs from cohort g after j years of study.

k denotes the number of repetitions allowed;

n the prescribed normal duration of study for a cycle or level of education;

g the pupil-cohort; and j the number of years of study.

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The estimated average number of years taken by graduates to graduate from a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education. The calculation can be done by dividing the sum of the products of the number of graduates by number of n years spent in a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education by the number of graduates in the corresponding school cohort and cycle or level of education and express the result in number of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.

Formula:

ADSG =

G i * ii = n

n+ k

∑

G ii = n

n+ k

∑Where:

G n= Graduates after n years of study.

G n+1 = Graduates after n +1 years of study.

G n+ k= Graduates after n + k years of study.

G = G ii =n

n+ k

∑ = Total number of graduates.

The estimated average number of years dropouts from a given school cohort in a level of education, stayed at school before dropping out. To calculate this indicator, divide the total number of years (pupil-years) during which drop-outs from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education stayed in a school before leaving by the number of drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and level or cycle of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.

Formula:

ADSD =

D i * ii = n

n+ k

∑

D ii = n

n+ k

∑Where:

D i = Dropouts after i years of study.

D n+ k = Dropouts after n + k years of study.

D = D ii =n

n+ k

∑ = Total number of dropouts.

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The estimated average number of years required to graduate a pupil/student from a given school cohort in a cycle or level of education. This can be calculated by dividing the sum of the total number of pupil-years taken by pupils from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle of education to graduate and the total pupil-years during which drop-outs stayed in school before leaving by the sum of the number of graduates and drop-outs in corresponding school cohort and level or cycle of education and express the result in numbers of years. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.

Formula:

ADSC =ADSG *G + ADSD * D

1000Where:

ADSG= Average duration of studies per graduate.

ADSD= Average duration of studies per dropout.

See above.

The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to drop out of school from a given cohort in cycle or level of education. This proportion is calculated by dividing the total number of pupil-years wasted by pupils who drop out from a given school cohort and in a level or cycle by the sum of the total number of pupil-years wasted by both the former and the pupils who repeat grades in the corresponding school and level or cycle of education (i.e. the excess of pupil-years wasted on the repetition and drop-outs) and multiply the result by 100.N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year.

Formula:

PTWSD =Di * i

i =1

n

∑PYEG

*100%

Where:

PYEG= the excess of pupil-years wasted on the repetition and drop-outs.

The proportion of total number of pupil/years wasted due to repetition of school within a given cohort in a level of education. It is calculated by deducting the PTWSD from 100 and expresses the result as a percentage. N.B. one year spent in a grade by a pupil is equal to one pupil-year. The formula below calculates this indicator by deducting PTWSD from 100%.

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Formula:

PTWSR = (100 − PTWSD )%

Where:

PTWSD =Di * i

i =1

n

∑PYEG

*100%

See above.

Adult literacy rate is defined as the percentage of population aged 15 years and over who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. Adult illiteracy is defined as the percentage of the population aged 15 years and over who cannot both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on his/her everyday life. The adult literacy rate is calculated by dividing the number of literates by the corresponding age-group population. Alternatively, apply the same method using the number of illiterates to derive the illiteracy rate; or by subtracting literacy rate from 100%.

Formula:

LIT 15+t =

L15+t

P15+t

or

ILL 15+t =

I 15+t

P15+t

Where:

LIT 15+t= Adult Literacy Rate (15+) in year t.

ILL 15+t= Adult Illiteracy Rate (15+) in year t.

L15+t= Adult Literate Population (15+) in year t.

I 15+t= Adult Illiterate Population (15+) in year t.

P15+t= Adult Population (15+) in year t.

The population aged 15 years and above who cannot both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on their every day life. To calculate it, either use data on the number of adult illiterates collected during population census or survey or subtract the number of adult literates from the total population aged 15 years and above.

82


Average number of pupils (students) per teacher at a specific level of education in a given school-year. Teachers are defined as persons whose professional activity involves the transmitting of knowledge, attitudes and skills that are stipulated in a formal curriculum programme to students enrolled in a formal educational institution. The ratio is computed by dividing the total number of pupils enrolled at the specified level of education by the number of teachers at the same level.

Formula:

PTR ht =

E ht

Tht

Where:

PTR ht = Pupil-teacher ratio at level of education h in school-year t.

E ht = Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t.

Tht = Total number of teachers at level of education h in school-year t.

Public expenditure devoted to teachers’ emoluments expressed as a percentage of total public current expenditure on education. This is calculated by dividing public current expenditure devoted to teachers’ emoluments in a given financial year by the total public current expenditure on education for the same financial year.

Formula:

%TX t =TX t

PCXE t

Where:

%TX t = Percentage of public current expenditure on education devoted to teachers’

emoluments in financial year t.

TX t = Total public current expenditure on teachers’ emoluments in financial year t.

PCXE t = Total public current expenditure on education in financial year .

There are two methods : the first is based on the pupil-teacher ratio and the second on the number of teaching hours per week).

Method based on the pupil-teacher ratio (used most frequently for primary education and to some extent for preschool education and literacy programmes)

83


Formula:

TR t =E t

R t

R t = R 0 + t* cr

NT t+1 = (TR t+1 − AT t+1) *δ j

Where:

TR t = number of full-time equivalent teachers required

E t

= total projected number of students

R t

= pupil-teacher ratio

R 0

= initial pupil-teacher ratio

cr = constant annual rate change of pupil-teacher ratio

NT t+1

= number of new teachers required at year t +1

AT t+1

= Available teachers by category at year t +1

δ j = proportion of new teachers appointed to the category j

Method based on the number of pupils by class and hours taught by teachers (most frequently used for the levels and cycles of education other than primary education)

Formula:

TR t =E t *H t

C t * Lt

where:

TR t

and E t

are defined above.

H t

= average number of weekly hours per student

C t

= average number of students per class

Lt

= average number of weekly hours per full-time teacher

cc = constant annual rate change of average number of students per class

The ratio of the number of pupils (students) to the number of classrooms. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of pupils (students) at a level or cycle of education by the number of class-rooms in the corresponding level or cycle of education.

84


Formula:

PCR ht =

E ht

C ht

Where:

PCR ht = Pupil-classroom ratio at level of education h in school-year t.

E ht = Total number of pupils or (students) at level of education h in school-year t.

C ht = Total number of classrooms at level of education h in school-year t.

Percentage of the area of the standard floor space occupied by pupils/students in a classroom. The rate is calculated by dividing the area of floor space of a classroom actually used by pupils/students at a level or cycle of education by the standard floor space which is planned for utilisation by pupils/students in the corresponding level or cycle of education.

Formula:

CSUR ht =

Aht

Sht

Where:

CSUR ht = Classroom space utilisation rate

Aht = Area of classroom’s floor space actually used at h level or cycle of education

Sht = Area of the standard classroom’s floor space that is planned for utilisation at h level or

cycle of education

Data required: 1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual area of floor space classrooms are respectively utilized or planned to be utilized.

Proportion of hours classrooms are used or occupied for teaching/learning purposes within the total number of standard hours of utilisation. To calculate the rate, divide the number of hours during which classrooms are actually utilised for teaching and learning at a level or cycle of education by the standard numbers of hours classrooms are planned to be used in the corresponding level or cycle of education.

Formula:

CTUR ht =

H ht

Sht

Where:

CTUR ht = Classroom time utilisation rate

CTUR ht = Number of actual hours classrooms used at h level or cycle of education

Sht = Number of standard hours of utilisation of classrooms at h level or cycle of education

1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are respec tively utilised or planned to be utilised.

85


The product of the classroom’s space and time utilisation rates. Multiply the CTUR (Classroom Space Utilisation Rate) by the CSUR (Classroom Time Utilisation Rate) to calculate this rate.

Formula:

CUR ht = CSUR h

t * CTUR ht

Where:

CUR ht = Classroom utilisation rate

1) Number of classrooms 2) Standard and actual number of hours classrooms are respectively utilised or planned to be utilised. 3) Standard and actual area of floor space classrooms are respectively utilized or planned to be utilised.

Based on the analyses of the projected enrolments and classroom utilization standards, it is possible to calculate future requirements for new constructions by level or cycle of education. This indi-cator is indispensable when preparing sector plans or programmes/projects related to classroom construc tions. It is calculated, especially for primary education level, by dividing the total number of students by the average number of students per classroom. As for the secondary and higher levels of edu cation, classroom requirements are calculated by taking into account the number of (weekly or monthly) learning hours and laboratory-usage hours as well.

Formula:

TCR dt =

E dt

ASC dt

NC dt =

E dt − (1 − a)* E d

t−1[ ]ASC d

t

ASC dt = ASC d

o + t* cc Where:

E dt = Total projected number of students, at year t and level of education d

TCR dt = total classrooms required, at year t and level of education d

ASC dt = Average number of students per classrooms at year t, level of education d

NC dt = new classrooms required, at year t, level of education d

a = replacement rate of buildings cc = constant annual rate of change of average of students per classroom 0 = initial year

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Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of the Gross National Product (GNP) in a given financial year. It can be calculated by dividing total public expenditure on education in a given financial year by the GNP of the country for the corresponding year.

Formula:

%GNPt =PXE t

GNPt

Where:

%GNPt = Percentage public expenditure on education in financial year t.

PXE t = Total Public expenditure on Education in financial year t.

GNPt = Gross National Product in financial year t.

In principle a high percentage of GNP devoted to public expenditure on education denotes a high level of attention given to investment in education by the government; and vice versa.

Total public expenditure on education (current and capital) expressed as a percentage of total government expenditure in a given financial year. It can be calculated by dividing total public expenditure on education incurred by all government agencies/departments in a given financial year by the total government expenditure for the same financial year.

Formula:

%PXE t =PXE t

TPX tWhere:

%PXE t = Public expenditure on education as a percentage of total government expenditure

in financial year t.

PXE t = Total public expenditure on education in financial year t.

TPX t = Total government expenditure in financial year t.

Public current expenditure for each level of education, expressed as a percentage of total public current expenditure on education. It can be calculated by dividing public current expenditure devoted to each level of education by the total public current expenditure on education.

87


Formula:

%PCXE ht =

PCXE ht

PCXE ht

h=1

n

∑Where:

%PCXE ht = Percentage public current expenditures on level of education h in financial year t.

PCXE ht = Total public current expenditures on level of education h in financial year t.

Public current expenditure per pupil (or student) at each level of education, expressed as a percentage of GNP per capita in a given financial year. It can be calculated by dividing per pupil public current expenditure on each level of education in a given year by the GNP per capita for the same year.

Formula:

%PCXE h,GNPct =

PCXE ht

E ht /

GNP t

P t

Where:

%PCXE h,GNPct

= Public current expenditure per pupil of education level h as percentage of

GNP per capita in financial year t.

PCXE ht = Public current expenditure on education level h in financial year t.

PCXE ht = Gross National Product in financial year t.

E ht = Total enrolment in education level h in school-year t.

P t

= Total national population in year t.

Public current expenditure on education as percentage of total public expenditure on educationPublic current expenditure on education expressed as a percentage of total public expenditure on education (current and capital) in a given financial year. It can be calculated by dividing public current expenditure on education in a given financial year by the total public expenditure on edu-ca tion for the same financial year.

Formula:

%PCXE t =PCXE t

TPXE t

Where:

%PCXE t = Percentage public current expenditure on education in financial year t.

PCXE t = Total public current expenditure on education in financial year t.

TPXE t = Total public expenditure in financial year t.

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Formula:

C dt = RC d

t + I dt

Where:

t = year

d = level of education

C dt = Total costs

RC dt = Total recurrent costs

I dt = Investment

Formula:

RC dt = CT d

t + CM dt + CAd

t + CO dt

CT dt =

i =1

n

∑ Tdijt wdij

j+1

k

∑

CM dt = E d

t *CMPS d

CAdt = E d

t *CAPS d

CO dt = E d

t *COPS d

Where:

CT dt = Teacher costs

CM dt = Costs of materials

CAdt

= Administrative costs

CO dt = Other costs

Tdijt

= Teachers by category i and step j.

wdijt

= salaries by category and step.

CMPS d = per pupil cost for materials.

CAPS d = per pupil administrative cost.

COPS d = per pupil other costs

89


Formula:

I dt = CBPS * E d

t − (1 − a)* E dt−1[ ]

Where:

CBPS d = per pupil building cost.

E dt = Enrolment.

a = replacement rate of buildings.

EPSSim User Guide PART TWO

Practical Exercises

1 EXERCISE ON INDICATORS .............................................................................................

2 WORKING ON SCENARIOS: A SIMULATION EXERCISE ..................................................

Activity 1 Developing a “Status Quo” Scenario .............................................................95

Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory Scenario ..............................................................97

Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to set a Reference Scenario ....................98

3 EPSSIM ADAPTATION EXERCISE (ADVANCED TRAINING) .............................................

4 SOLUTIONS OF THE SIMULATION EXERCISE: WORKING ON SCENARIOS .....................

5 SOLUTIONS OF THE ADAPTATION EXERCISE ...............................................................

Figures and Tables

Chapter 1 ..........................................................................................................................93

Fig 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises ...............................................................................93

Fig 1.2 Exercise on Indicators ...................................................................................93

CONTENTS PART TWO

91

PART TWO EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

92

The 2.9 (both 2.9b and 2.9c) model contains some built-in training modules which provide exercises on the key indicators used in the model and enable users to conduct a simplified simulation using hypothetical data. For advanced users, exercises for adapting the generic EPSSim to a country context are also proposed. They require the use of the model 2.9c ONLY.

1 / Exercise on Indicators

93

1 Exercise on IndicatorsThis is an exercise to practice calculating the main education indicators. To access the exercise, go to , then select and click on(Figure 1).

Figure 1.1 Pre-Simulation Exercises

Once the sheet is open, you can follow the instructions and train yourself in the calculation of indicators (Figure 2). When you enter values according to the exercise, the answers will be automatically checked and will show whether they are TRUE or FALSE (note that where there are several questions, this cell will only read TRUE when all correct answers have been entered). If you encounter any difficulties, click to check the solutions.

Figure 1.2 Exercise on Indicators

2 Working on Scenarios: A Simulation Exercise

Once you have completed the exercise on indicators, you may then move on to the , which resembles the real simulation practices but in a much more simplified format. This

exercise can either be guided by designated facilitators with set data and information or be used as a self-training module using the hypothetical baseline (Column B) and policy information (Columns C and D) data provided below:

In Epssimia, the Minister of Education is concerned with achieving Universal Primary Education (UPE) at a rapid pace. As a planner, you are requested to produce a series of scenarios that present the best way forward for advising the Cabinet. If access to education is key in achieving UPE, you will also have to consider quality and internal efficiency aspects so as not to neglect retention and resource limitations issues. Your final scenario will have to be financially sustainable over the years. For the sake of the exercise, only will be considered.

LOCATING THE SIMULATION EXERCISE IN EPSSim

▼ Open the EPSsim model and allow the macros

▼ Go to Excel Top Bar Menu and click on

▼ Select Pre-Simulation Exercise in the drop-down menu and click on

94

The simulation sheet has been informed by the Statistical Unit of the Planning Department. They have collected 2009/10 education data from the EMIS, calculated the flow rates, looked for unit cost information in the relevant services (human resources, infrastructures and textbooks) and asked the Ministry of Finances for macro-economic and expenditure framework related data. Baseline data has been entered in the yellow cells of the sheet (column B).

Your job will mainly consist in testing different sets of variables by fixing credible policy targets (column C), timelines (column D) and analysing the consequent projections (column F and onwards) to experiment alternative and forecast scenarios.


95

Activity 1 Developing a “Status Quo” Scenario

In any situation where you can be asked to develop projection scenarios2, you will have to start first with a baseline scenario against which you will compare the alternative scenarios you will later generate. The status quo scenario serves as a reference point to explore ways and means for improvement.

The baseline scenario consists of a simple projection of the past trends (hereafter ‘status quo’ scenario). It is about determining the consequences of the current education situation or policy if this will remain unchanged during the plan period. In actual fact, it is extremely rare that one is fully satisfied with the existing situation and requires no change in the current policy. This status quo scenario makes it possible to weigh the consequences of the laissez-faire policy and to identify and specify the desirable changes to adopt within the framework of a new sector development period.

In general, the policy options of a status quo scenario are extrapolated from and calculated on the basis of the past trends which are those observed over the past several years, e.g. 3 to 5 years. In some cases, by lack of historical data, one can use the information of the last year for which the data are available, in order to derive the policy variables and use them as if they were the policy options of this “status quo” scenario.

Entering the Policy Options to Generate a “Status Quo” Scenario

In EPSSimia, there is, unfortunately, no historical data to extrapolate the policy options. The most recent education data dates back to 2009/10. As such, the baseline indicators and unit costs

are taken as policy targets and options to project the current situation to the future and to simulate the absence of improvement, with a few exceptions.

2 It can be for informing policy making on a particular aspect of an on-going or future reform and/or outstanding education issues, for guiding policy negotiation in financial resource allocation and sector trade-offs, for preparing the annual budget, for developing a comprehensive sector development plan that would be preceded by a thorough education sector diagnosis, etc.

At this stage, the model is meant to trigger the question:

If the problems presently identified are allowed to continue unaddressed into the future, will the government policy objective for universal primary schooling be achieved, and if so, what will the implications be in terms of

human, physical and financial resources?

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2 / Working On Scenarios

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Please follow these steps:▼ Enter the status quo policy options in by simply replicating the data found in

the baseline cells or the baseline year indicators automatically calculated in the projection section

▼ Set the timeline 9 years later with no exception.

▼ Set the target intake rate in the first grade of primary to 102% by 2020 from its 2009 value of 105%.

▼ The attrition rates for teaching and non-teaching staff are set as 3 percent.

As concerns the cost-related information, the staff salaries are expressed in terms of per capita GDP multiple, while all the rest is expressed in monetary terms (in thousands, unless otherwise specified).

▼ Create a scenario by clicking the button ‘ placed on of the worksheet. You will be prompted to a table displaying the key features of Scenario 1 (Status quo scenario in our case).

Reading and Analysing the “Status Quo” Scenario

1 What could you say about the GIR? What does it mean for the education system? (Think from a pupil’s perspective)

2 Look at the GER (gross enrolment ratio) and comment its projection. (Bear in mind the UPE objective and translate the indicator from an education system functioning point of view)

3 How can you explain the decrease of the GER while the GIR remains over 100% over the period? What are the other factors that can negatively impact the GER?

4 Analyse the resource requirements (teachers and infrastructure) and compare them to the GER. How would you explain such a phenomenon?

Preparing an Exploratory Scenario

From the questions above and your analysis of the scenario, would you think that ensuring the admission of all children in the first grade of primary education is a sufficient option for achieving UPE? In your understanding, what is the main

impediment to this objective?


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Activity 2 Developing an Exploratory ScenarioThe second stage of scenario development generally consists in designing two or more alternative scenarios on the basis of the anticipated objectives of new policies. These scenarios allow policy-makers and specialists to weigh the consequences and values of adopting the new options for

education sector development within a given macro-economic and budge tary framework, and to verify the socio-economic and financial sustainability of the

education policy objectives considered, in particular by studying the effect of the different combination of variables on the evolution of the sector. It is also in the course of this stage that the feasibility of the policies and strategies considered is verified while the objectives and hypotheses are evaluated in terms of financial and budgetary consequences.

The results of the different scenarios inform the policy dialogue with a view to reaching a consensus on the objectives of education policy. Once the different options are carefully weighed, one of the scenarios will normally garner more consensus than the others and result in what is called a reference scenario.

Entering the policy options to generate an exploratory scenario

In relation to the previous scenario, we agreed to change the flow rates (promotion and repetition rates) in order to address the issue of low internal efficiency. In your simulation model, please change the policy variables (column C) as follows:

The analysis of the status quo scenario has helped us identify the main dys-func tions of the Epssimia education system, namely low internal efficiency. As a re sponse, a second scenario would be designed to tentatively address the low internal efficiency issue as part of responding to the Minister’s request for identifying the best policy measures to be taken for speeding-up

Universal Primary Education.

As we have seen, the Status Quo scenario is inadequate because, although most children would enter the first grade of primary education, the system would not be able to achieve universal primary schooling by 2015. In that scenario the very low internal efficiency is allowed to persist and is projected to the future, thus leading to continued high wastage rates in the system.

T

In

(

2 / Working On Scenarios

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▼ The promotion rates will be increased to 95 percent across all grades, incrementally over the plan period (9 years), except for Grade 4 where the rate should be set at 90 percent; the lower promotion rate in this grade results from the transitional nature of that grade within primary education.

▼ The repetition rates will be reduced to 5 percent, incrementally over the plan period, except for Grade 4 (10%). Dropout rates will be subsequently reduced drastically, to reach nil at the end of nine years.

▼ All other variables will remain the same as in Scenario 1 including the timelines.

▼ Create a second scenario by clicking the button placed on of the worksheet. You will obtain a table displaying both Scenarios 1 and 2.

Reading and Analysing the Alternative Scenario 1 How do you compare the gross enrolment ratios between Scenarios 1 and 2 and

what do you think are the main drivers for these changes? (Think in terms of UPE)

2 How do you compare the resource requirements (including teachers and classrooms) between Scenarios 1 and 2?

3 How do you compare the financing gaps between Scenarios 1 and 2 and what are the main drivers for these changes?

Preparing an Alternative Scenario

From your analysis of the second scenario, you would conclude that improving internal efficiency indicators, even without changing other policy variables, will substantially increase the enrolment ratios. However, as an adviser to the

Minister, you will be asked to specify the means through which the proposed improvement of internal efficiency will be achieved. What are some of the aspects of an

education system that are likely to sustain internal efficiency and eventually UPE?

Activity 3 Developing an Alternative Scenario to Set a Reference Scenario

The third phase of scenario development is the adoption of one of the previously considered scenarios, or even a scenario resulting from the combination of several objectives and variables. Once verified on the policy and technical level, this scenario is refined with the degree of information which is required in the programming of

actions. It becomes the reference scenario for the future education plan, making it possible to foresee development actions and the financial resources required.

It can be designed as a result of the combination of several objectives and variables coming from different sector development hypotheses and within affordable fiscal and budgetary frameworks. Such a scenario will be based on the consensus of all major stakeholders, including finance ministries and, once endorsed, will help in the actual preparation of a strategic or action plan for educational development.


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In scenario 2, the system achieves universal primary schooling by 2020 even though we have maintained the same gross intake rate as in Scenario 1 (status quo). That is mainly thanks to improved internal efficiency (high promotion rates, low repetition rates and no dropouts). However, the budget deficit will remain high through 2015 and onwards, higher than in Scenario 1. In addition to that, the policy options do not address in any way the issues related to the quality of education that would possibly ensure a sustained improvement of the internal efficiency and UPE.

Improving Quality-related Indicators

In our case, the changes made to create a third scenario will be based on the second scenario, by improving some quality-related indicators. In your simulation

model, please, change the policy variables as follows:

Reading and Analysing the Alternative Scenario

1 How do you compare the gross enrolment ratios on the one hand and the resource requirements (including teachers and classrooms) on the other hand between Scenarios 2 and 3 and what are the main drivers for these changes?

2 How do you compare the financing gaps between Scenarios 1, 2 and 3?

Preparing a Reference Scenario

You have created three scenarios. Do you think any of these scenarios can be taken as a reference to build an education development plan without running the risk of worsening the quality of education or should another, acceptable

scenario be developed? Assuming none of these scenarios corresponds to your expectations, please create your own scenario, keeping in mind the following:

simu lation model.

level, e.g. less than 15% throughout the plan period.

2 / Working on Scenarios

Im

In sec

model,

▼▼ The teacher/supervisor ratio changes from 10.1 to 7 (meaning 1 supervisor for 7 teachers)

▼ The teacher/other non-teaching staff ratio changes from 14.5 to 10.

▼ The number of core textbooks per pupil increases from 0.5 in base year to 2 and 3,

▼ The number of teaching guides for core subjects increases from 1 to 3 by 2013.

▼ The share of primary education in the total resources for education increases from the

▼ All other variables remain unchanged.

▼ placed on of the worksheet. You will obtain a table displaying both Scenarios 1, 2 and 3.

BASELINEScenario 1

“Status Quo”Scenario 2 Alternative

Scenario 3 Alternative

Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020

Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%

Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Private 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Class size 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282

# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157 32,384 39,472 45,805 62,240

Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355 1,561,048 3,892,060 4,994,924 7,400,130

Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408

COSTS FROM SIMULATION (000)

Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880 37,667,589 42,849,642 46,998,803 58,493,984

Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869 28,084,243 31,040,524 33,489,809 40,534,142

Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927 5,075,956 6,257,859 7,316,903 10,133,536

Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084 4,507,389 5,551,260 6,192,092 7,826,306

Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125

Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606 43,967,732 48,955,510 52,823,545 62,518,005 44,351,437 50,733,829 55,608,397 67,704,109

EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK ('000,000)

Education resources as % of Total Gov. Resources

27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%

Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,924 42,172 45,265 53,194

Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0% 16.9% 20.3% 22.9% 27.3%

Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0% 10.9% 13.4% 15.9% 22.8%

Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1% 69.0% 79.3% 82.4% 66.0%

Additional amount to mobilize (‘000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947 6,427,738 8,562,092 10,343,448 14,510,547

Unit Costs (‘000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97 6.84 7.17 7.35 7.55

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PART TWO EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model 2 / Working on Scenarios

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3 EPSSim Adaptation Exercise (Advanced Training)

EPSSim, in some cases they may not well reflect actual in-country situations.

and how to operate it.

answers as needed but not mechanically.

ACTIVITY 1: REPLACING, REMOVING OR ADDING AN ITEM IN A SUB-LEVEL SECTION

The Ministry of Education has two types of non-teaching staff: “Administrative staff” and “Other supporting staff” at the primary level. Please reflect this in the model.

Tips in the PRIM worksheet

Command;

“Ratio Teacher/Category 3”

, and worksheets for the effect of the changes and correct as necessary. You can check which other worksheets in the model are affected by the changes by using Excel -> feature.

As there is no particular policy for providing education staff with dedicated rooms, the Ministry of Education does not see a need to keep a separate “Staff rooms” featured under the of the model in the worksheet. Instead, the Staff rooms should be included in “Other rooms.” Remove the “Staff rooms” category from the model in primary education.


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3 / EPSSim Adaptation Exercise

Tips in the PRIM worksheet

Tips to adapt the model for request 1

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, input the relevant heading and policy targets;

Reconstruction rows) by inserting references to the headmaster rooms;

, insert (two) rows before the toilets for the headmaster offices and label appropriately by looking at others types of room;

Classroom and paste them into the newly inserted rows;

Tips to adapt the model to request 2

insert one row each for librarians in Public, Private and Total sections between “Total technical assistants” and “Total supervisory staff” and label them properly;

librarians ratio over the projection years.

number of years to reach them.

validity;

, insert a row for librarians and label them properly;

t

, insert a row for librarians and label them properly;


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ACTIVITY 2: SEPARATING OUT AN EDUCATION COMPONENT

Fishermen represent 5% of the total population, but recent studies show that pupils from Fishermen are marginalized on the basis of their life style and do not enter junior secondary level after completing primary education. The Government wants to a set enrolment goal for this group to 3% of the total enrolments in public Junior Secondary in next 10 years, within the already set target for gross enrolment ratio (GER) in the public sector. You are requested to adapt EPSSim accordingly. Note that in the baseline year the enrolment of pupils from marginalized fishermen was only 920 males and 610 females in regular government schools.

Given that these children will be attending school in the same classes as other children, we don’t need particular projections for staff and infrastructure.

Explain why there is no need to change anything in the COST worksheet.

Tips:

insert (three) rows in for the fishermen children in the public sector and enter their labels under the heading “of which Fishermen”;

appropriate cell;

them in the appropriate cells;

and update them if necessary;

percentages of public enrolments for male and female fishermen children;

that they are consistent (take example from any similar projection targeting percentages);

insert rows for male, female and total for fishermen children and enter the appropriate labels;

types of public enrollment. Do the necessary changes if you notice consistency issues (i.e. check the formula for the total students enrollments in every type of public education)


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ACTIVITY 3: ENABLING NFE PROGRAMMES AND ADDING STUDY FIELDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

The government sponsored “Better Life for Family (BLR)” NGO is implementing the “national family planning and life skills education programme” targeting women age 15 to 49 in rural areas. In 2010, there were 15,000 women in the target age-group attending the programme.

from the programme in the next 10 years.

the agency is planning to improve the learners-trainer ratio to 50:1 over 10 years along with a proportion of 90% of trainers and 10% of assistant trainers. It is also expected that the teacher attrition rate is 5% given that the NFE programme, the teacher turn-over is high.

average lifespan of the textbook is 3 years.

shall be maintained. The average lifespan of the guide is 3 years.

the evening, there is no additional cost required for infrastructure and classroom facilities. Furthermore other associated costs are similar to the other NFE programmes.

introduce the above-mentioned BLR.

Tips:

give to this new programme (Family planning and life skill education) the place held by the Programme 4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2);

education in proportion to 0 to 2” but now become irrelevant for the new programme, e.g. since it is the government sponsored programme, all cells relevant to the private section should be 0;

staff, Textbooks & teaching guides, Infrastructure. If not, make the necessary adaptation.


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The Ministry has recently introduced a new tertiary level programme on agriculture in public non-university institutes. You are requested to adapt EPSSim to capture this new study field in the public (Remember that it might be more convenient if the structure remains similar between the public system and private sectors to improve comparison.) For the sake of this exercise, assume that the baseline enrolment is 2500 in public non-university institutes, of which 500 are females and that the target share of agriculture in public non-university enrolments is 10% for males and 5% for females in 10 years. To align with the new programme, the government also would also like to revise its programme targets in the public non-university institutes as follows: to reduce the targets for male enrolment from 15% to 10% in the Social and Human Sciences as well as Teacher Training; the target for Female from 15% to 10% in Medical.

Tips:

Public” section, insert (three) rows for agriculture just before the “Medical” field;

and number of years to reach it;

formulas and correct them.

specialization (%): Other Tertiary Education” section to take into account this new study field, both for the baseline, and the projection years;

study field same as in the above “Enrolments by type and specialization (%),”properly label them and copy the formulas for the projections from another study field;

Enrolments by type and specialization (%) section and make appropriate changes if necessary.

ACTIVITY 4: REMOVING OR REPLACING A SUB-LEVEL COMPONENT

Question: In the ECCE worksheet, EPSSim features a component for early childhood care programmes. In EPSSim, there is only a pre-school education programme for children aged 3-5 years. There is as yet no plan to deal with the younger population. You are therefore requested to remove it from the model in order to streamline it.


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Tips:

(remove the “#REF!+” portion);

ACTIVITY 5: ADDING A MAJOR SUB-LEVEL COMPONENT

The Ministry of Education would like to introduce a new in-service teacher training programme (ICT training) to newly recruited teachers at all levels. The Ministry would like to train 10% of all newly recruited staff at the primary and secondary level from 2010.

In addition to this ICT training programme for teachers, the minister has two other in-service teacher training programmes (Academic and Professional training) and the costs of all these should be taken into account as they are in addition to the existing teacher training programmes.

Tips:

insert 11 rows;

;

in the worksheet.

ACTIVITY 6: REMOVING OR ADDING INDICATORS TO THE SCENARIO LIST

Given that the targets in the area of access to education are better captured for monitoring and evaluation reasons reasons with enrolment ratios particularly at primary and junior secondary education, the officials in the Ministry of Education wish to remove the actual enrolment figures from the list of indicators shown in the scenarios. Your task is to remove “Student enrolments” from the lists in both primary and junior secondary education.


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Tips:

The Ministry also wishes to replace one indicator in the scenarios. Instead of the total number of classrooms in both primary and secondary levels, they would like to see the number of new classrooms to be built each year in the scenario list.

Tips:

concerned columns under Primary, Secondary I and Secondary II sections;

to the appropriate indicator in the appropriate worksheet;

ACTIVITY 7: CUSTOMIZING THE YEARS TO SHOW IN THE SCENARIOS

The EPSSim 2.9c displays projections for 14 years beyond the baseline year (2010/ 2011), the current scenario view is set to display four projection years such as: Base year +5 (2015/2016), Base year +8 (2018/2019), Base year +11 (2021/2012) and Base year +14 (2024/2025). Check this fact by generating the current scenario (go to the menu:

. Generating a second scenario will display figures for exactly the same years.

Let us suppose that the Ministry prefers to show indicator values for the four years immediately after base year (2010/2011) such as 2011/2012, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/2015. You are requested to input the required change.

Tips:

the range AD4...AG5. Go to the Cells (from AD4 to AG4) and change the formula in order to obtain the requested years;

of 2015/2016;


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ACTIVITY 8: EDITING MENUS AND UPDATE THE FLOW CHART

In order to ease the access to the “non-formal education” section, you are requested to create a dedicated set of sub-menu items for the Non-Formal Education in the EPSSim 2.9a under Simulation/Projection Excel -> Non-Formal Education;

Tips:

t

enting the components of non-formal education under the sub-menu Non-Formal Education;

then go to the macro SimNFE;

Please adapt the EPSSim Flow Chart accessible from the START worksheet to display shortcut button(s) to these components.

Tips:


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4 Solutions of the Simulation Exercise: Working on Scenarios

ACTIVITY 1: Developing a “Status Quo” Scenario

BASELINE Scenario 1 “status Quo”

Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020

Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%

Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5%

Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5%

Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35

Class size 38 38 38 38 38

# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871

# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541

Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440

Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336


Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253

Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160

Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602

Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491

Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353

Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606

EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK (‘000,000)


27% 27% 27% 27% 27%

Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598

Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8%

Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2%

Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9%

Additional amount to mobilize (‘000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548

Unit Costs (‘000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92

4 / Solutions of the Simulation Exercise: Working on Scenarios

112

Reading and Analysing the “Status Quo” Scenario

As you can see in the table above, most children will have entered the first grade of primary education (more than 100 percent gross intake rate through 2015 and beyond). The intake rate was rather high in 2009 at 105%. This is most probably due to the backlog of eligible children who didn’t enrol in school on time in the past and showed en masse following an announcement of the school fee abolition, since the Minister of Education had decided to speed-up the achievement of UPE in EPSsimia. However, this high rate is likely to decrease over the years to reach around 100% as the backlog is absorbed. As we are considering a gross ratio, the phenomena of under-aged, but most of all over-aged children may significantly impact the figures and ratios and may not give an accurate picture of the intake of legal age children. We know that in ‘normal’ situations whereby all children enter the school on time, GIR (gross intake rate) and NIR (net intake rate) are theoretically the same. In practice, especially in countries with low enrolment, this ratio can be either much more or less than 100.

Since the GIR is over 100 percent over the period observed, one would expect that if 100 pupils entered grade 1 of primary school and if these pupils remain through the end of the cycle without dropping out of the system, GER would be at least 100%. Nevertheless, the GER will be 91.3% in 2015 and even less in 2020 (90. 5%).

The first reason is that some pupils would have left the school without completing the cycle. Ensuring that all children are admitted in the first grade of primary education is a necessary condition for achieving universal primary education, but not sufficient. The entire school cohort that entered the grade 1 of primary level should complete this level in order to achieve universal primary education.

Besides, the number of repeaters is high across all grades. As we have seen above, 92% GER in 2009 will gradually drop to about 90% in 2020. But the actual situation is even worse than reflected in that GER decrease as the enrolments include numerous repeaters occupying the school places, thus inflating the GER figure. This implies that by extrapolation, there are many children who are non-enrolled or missing out on primary schooling. One can easily figure from the previously commented ratios that the coefficient of efficiency of the system is very low. The coefficient of efficiency of a system can be translated as the immediate ‘internal’ return to the investment made in a given education system. When an education system is dysfunctional because of low internal efficiency ratios (high repetition and drop-out rates, low promotions rates), we can conclude a high wastage rate.


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The resource requirements for both teachers and classrooms are significantly increasing over the period: +26.5% and +27.5% respectively. In other words, more than a quarter of the teacher and classroom stocks of 2009 will have to be hired and constructed in about 10 years. One may think that this increase is reasonable. Because of the demographic pressure, the education system will have to give access to more and more children in absolute terms who need to be accommodated with new teachers and classrooms. This would have been even more understandable if the UPE target would have been achieved. However, we know now that under this scenario, the GER is decreasing and the system is moving farther away from the UPE target leaving a consequent number of children out of the school. In the previous question, we have explored the concept of wastage rate. This wastage rate gets a concrete meaning when we observe the paradox of this situation. Less and less eligible children are going to school but the Government will have to invest more and more in education to address the increasing needs for teachers and infrastructure.


As we have seen above, the internal efficiency was very low (low promotion rate, high repetition and drop-out rates) in 2009; this low internal efficiency is transferred and projected to the future, thus leading to continued high wastage rate in the system.

The first front would thus be to increase the efficiency of the system, especially by reducing the repetition rate. Pupils repeating once or twice would have used two or three

times more resources (such as teachers and classrooms). By improving the internal efficiency, one will save the budget to hire more teachers and to construct new schools, which will in turn contribute to improving the quality in education. Another decision is to increase the financial resources devoted to education, both in terms of recurrent and capital allocations, in order to accommodate the need for improving the quality of learning conditions and the demographic pressure on education services.


BASELINE Scenario 1 “Status Quo” Scenario 2 Alternative

Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020

Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%

Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Pupil/teacher ratio 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

Class size 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

# Teaching staff 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282

# Non-teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157

Core textbooks 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355

Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408


Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880

Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869

Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927

Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084

Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125

Total Primary education 42,800,751 43,584,712 46,843,305 49,085,058 55,464,606 43,967,732 48,955,510 52,823,545 62,518,005


Education resources as % of Total Gov. Resources 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%

Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598

Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0%

Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0%

Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1%

Additional amount to mobilize (‘000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947

Unit Costs (‘000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97

ACTIVITY 2: Developing an Exploratory Scenario

114-115


116

Reading and analysing the Exploratory Scenario

Both scenarios have the same intake rates. However, according to Scenario 2, the system would be achieving universal primary schooling by 2020, thanks to improved internal efficiency. In the first scenario, GERs have been decreasing mainly due to dropouts, while in the second scenario, the improved flow rates (especially higher promotion rate) will lead to 100% GER by 2020. In this scenario, repetitions are rather marginal (only around 5%), while the drop-out will gradually reduce to almost nil by 2020. In 2020, the country will almost reach the goal of UPE which means that the quasi totality of primary school age children will have entered and completed the primary school cycle. Nevertheless, we know that in order to achieve a “perfect” universal primary education, the net enrolment ratio is a more reliable indicator to be used. Since the gross enrolment ratios do not consider the age of the pupils enrolled (both pupils above or below the legal age group will be in the system), and given the 5% repetition rate, it happens that GER inflates the situation. This explains the over 100% GER in 2020.

In Scenario 2, the resource requirements in terms of teachers and classrooms are higher than in Scenario 1, mainly due to the increased school enrolments in absolute terms. Both the recurrent and capital costs will subsequently remain important according to Scenario 2. Because of the reduced wastages and improved internal efficiency, we can however say that the productivity of teachers and the investment return of classrooms are much bigger in Scenario 2 than in Scenario 1.

The simulation allows us not only to identify the resources needed to achieve the policy goals but also the likely financial gaps. The financial gaps in Scenario 2 will be higher than in Scenario 1. This is due to increased enrolments and subsequent increased requirements for teachers and classrooms. Increasing domestic funding will be necessary to reduce these gaps. Such increases can be made possible by improving the fiscal pressure, and also by increasing the share of education expenditure in total government expenditure. Negotiations with the ministries of finance or economic planning will be necessary to convince of the need for allocating more funds to education. On the other hand, education ministries will demonstrate to external donors that their plan is credible, thereby attracting more additional resources for the implementation of the national education policy. Most importantly, efforts to reduce the financial gaps will have to come from within the system through the rational use of allocated resources. These include improving the internal efficiency of the system, ensuring that resources are used efficiently and effectively and working out some options for trade-offs within and across the sub-sectors.


117


In Scenario 2, although we have maintained the same gross intake rate as in Scenario 1 (status quo), the system would have achieved UPE by 2020, mainly due to improved internal efficiency (high promotion rate, low repetition rate

and no dropouts). The budget deficit will increase gradually, and remain important through 2020 (around 26%). The requirements for teachers and classrooms will increase by

35% in 2015 (27% in Scenario 1). In this scenario, the internal efficiency will improve greatly.

Increasing the internal efficiency over the years in order to achieve UPE is certainly an achievement, however the question remains as to whether it is possible to actually achieve and sustain it, without improving the quality of education. We also know that one of the ways of improving the internal efficiency is through improving the quality of education, especially the learning conditions so as to retain pupils in school and decrease the costs for the parents to enrol their children.


BASELINE Scenario 1 “Status Quo” Scenario 2 Alternative Scenario 3 Alternative

Year 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020 2010 2013 2015 2020

Gross intake rate 105.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0% 104.6% 103.6% 103.0% 102.0%

Gross enrolment ratios 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Public 92.1% 92.4% 91.8% 91.3% 90.5% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3% 92.4% 94.1% 96.0% 101.3%

Private 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pupil/teacher ratio 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 35 35 35 35

Class size 180,860 185,760 197,688 205,870 228,871 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282 38 38 38 38

# Teaching staff 30,456 31,281 33,290 34,668 38,541 31,281 34,093 36,442 43,157 185,760 202,460 216,407 256,282

# Non-teaching staff 868,261 892,027 950,083 989,943 1,101,440 892,027 973,015 1,040,609 1,233,355 32,384 39,472 45,805 62,240

Core textbooks 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 1,561,048 3,892,060 4,994,924 7,400,130

Classrooms 164,160 168,751 180,046 187,818 209,336 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408 168,751 184,392 197,431 234,408


Recurrent costs 36,171,652 37,283,884 40,103,350 42,061,224 47,606,253 37,283,884 41,071,322 44,213,951 53,307,880 37,667,589 42,849,642 46,998,803 58,493,984

Teachers (Wage, etc.) 27,216,098 28,059,126 30,200,780 31,688,922 35,909,160 28,059,126 30,929,734 33,310,786 40,209,869 28,084,243 31,040,524 33,489,809 40,534,142

Other staff 4,755,523 4,903,445 5,279,703 5,541,257 6,281,602 4,903,445 5,407,139 5,824,863 7,033,927 5,075,956 6,257,859 7,316,903 10,133,536

Other recurrent costs 4,200,032 4,321,313 4,622,867 4,831,045 5,415,491 4,321,313 4,734,449 5,078,302 6,064,084 4,507,389 5,551,260 6,192,092 7,826,306

Capital costs 6,629,098 6,300,828 6,739,955 7,023,834 7,858,353 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125 6,683,848 7,884,187 8,609,594 9,210,125



27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%

Resources for primary education 36,605 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,630 40,880 43,202 49,598 37,924 42,172 45,265 53,194

Gap Simulation Costs vs. Budget (%) 16.9% 15.8% 14.6% 13.6% 11.8% 16.8% 19.8% 22.3% 26.0% 16.9% 20.3% 22.9% 27.3%

Recurrent 10.3% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.2% 10.6% 12.2% 14.3% 20.0% 10.9% 13.4% 15.9% 22.8%

Capital 73.7% 60.6% 58.1% 55.9% 51.9% 70.3% 85.0% 91.1% 78.1% 69.0% 79.3% 82.4% 66.0%

Additional amount to mobilize ('000) 6,195,751 5,954,772 5,963,118 5,883,530 5,866,548 6,337,792 8,075,323 9,622,018 12,919,947 6,427,738 8,562,092

Unit Costs ('000) 6.78 6.72 6.78 6.82 6.92 6.78 6.92 6.98 6.97 6.84 7.17 7.35 7.55

ACTIVITY 3: Developing an Alternative and a Reference Scenario


118-119

120


READING AND ANALYSING THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

The enrolment ratios are the same in both scenarios. Nevertheless, the resource requirements are more important in scenario 3. Increasing the number of supervisory staff, the provision of textbooks and teaching guides have had implications for resources. The learning and teaching conditions will clearly improve. One will also need to see if the resources required for this scenario can be secured and sustained. On the other hand, given the importance and duration of primary education, there is a clear need to allocate more resources to this education level.

In this scenario, the resources required for both recurrent and capital costs are much higher than in both the first and second scenarios. Quality inputs have been improved to contribute to enhanced internal efficiency and increased enrolments in primary education. However, the budget deficit will be substantial. Scenario 1 has the least financial requirements, but universal primary schooling will not be achieved. Scenarios 2 and 3 look for an improvement both in terms of access and quality. The financial efforts are important in the order of 20-25% in terms of financial gaps, culminating in 2020 above 25%. On average, in scenario 2 and 3, the financial gaps will be around 21.8% and 21.3% respectively and throughout the period. A financing gap above 20% cannot be included into a credible plan. Either you search for grants or borrow loans, or you will have to take necessary measures to reduce down the gaps. Such options could include introducing double shift, savings in school construction costs, supporting private education, increasing domestic resources for education, especially for primary education, reducing non-teaching staff, and/or reviewing staff salary levels.

EEPSSim: EEdduccccccaaaaatttiiioooonn PPPPoolliicyyy && Stratteeggyy Simmuullationn MMoodelPART TWO EPSSim: Education Policy & Strategy Simulation Model

121

5 Solutions of the Adaptation Exercise ACTIVITY 1

1 Open the worksheet;

2 Use Ctrl+F to open the Excel command; the type “Total non-teaching staff” to locate the ; Then the cursor will be at the

of non-teaching staff – Cell: A234);

3 Move down the cursor to the cell “Category 1” and replace with “Administrative staff” (Ref Cell:A235);

4 Move down the cursor to the cell “Category 2” and replace with “Other supporting staff” (Ref Cell:A236);

5 Go to row 237 and clear (remove the content: all numbers, texts and formulas) the cells from B237 to T237;

6 Move down the cursor to the cell “Ratio Teacher/Category 1” and replace with

“Ratio Teacher/ Administrative staff ” (Ref Cell:A237);

7 Move down the cursor to the cell “Ratio Teacher/Category 2” and replace with“Ratio Teacher/ Other supporting staff” (Ref Cell:A238);

8 Go to row 240 and clear the cells from B240 to T240;

9 Do the steps 3 to 8 for of non-teaching staff of non-teaching staff;

10 Do the steps 3 to 5 for of non-teaching staff;

11 Open worksheet;

12 Go to Cell:A21; replace “Other Staff Category 1“with “Administrative staff”;

13 Go to Cell:A22; replace “Other Staff Category 2 “with “Other supporting staff”;

14 Open worksheet;

15 Under the , take steps 3 to 5 for .


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2 Under , at the cell containing the words “Other rooms”, complete the wording with “including staff rooms” (Ref Cell: A328);

3 Include the baseline value (9000) of “Staff rooms” (Ref Cell: B322) into “Other rooms” (Ref Cell: B328);

4 Select the entire three rows concerning “Staff rooms” (Ref Cell: 322 to 324) and clear (remove the content: all numbers, texts and formulas) the cells;

5 Under , include the baseline value (150) of “Staff rooms” (Ref Cell: B339) into “Other rooms” (Ref Cell: B345);

6 Do the steps 3 (Ref Rows: 339 to 341)and 4 (Ref Cell:A345) for of Staff rooms;

7 Do the above step 3 (Ref Rows: 353 to 354) and 4 (Ref Cell:A357) for of Staff rooms;

8 Open worksheet;

9 Clear the content of the range C35..C38 as these option/target variables are for the staff room;

10 Open worksheet;

11 Under , clear the contents of the two rows about Staff rooms (Staff rooms; Staff rooms to build by year) concerning Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 259 to 260);

12 Do the steps 3 and 4 for of Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 268 to 269);

13 Do the above step 3 and 4 for of Staff rooms (Ref Rows: 277 to 278).


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insert the following information on headmaster offices in the 3 blank rows (which is due to the previous exercise of incorporating staff rooms into the other rooms) before the

2 Enter

(a) “Headmasters’ office” in Cell A322;

(b) ”Headmasters’ office to build by year” in Cell A323;

(c) ”Classroom/ Headmasters’ office ratio” in Cell A324;

(d) the numbers of headmaster rooms (250) in the baseline year in Cell B322;

(e) the target classroom/headmaster room office ratio (20) in cell C324;

(f) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D324;

3 Copy the Range F325...T327 to F322...T324;

4 Change the formula in Cell F324. The formula should as below: =IF(F322=0,0,F317/F322)

5 Copy the Cell E327 to E324;

6 Change the formula in Cell G322. The formula should appear below: =G317/G324;

7 Copy the Cell G322 to Range H322 to T322;

8 Change the formula in Cell G323. The formula should appear below: =MAX(0,G322-F322)+G322*$C318;

9 Copy the Cell G323 to Range H323 to T323;

10 Copy the information from (Ref Cells: A322..T423) to the blank 3 rows under the

(Ref Cells: A339..T341).

11 Enter

(a) the number of headmaster rooms (100) in the baseline year in Cell B339;

(b) the target classroom/headmaster room office ratio (30) in cell C341;

(c) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D341;

12 Under the , in the blank two rows (Ref Rows: 353 and 354);

13 Enter


(b) ”Headmasters’ office to build by year” in Cell A354;

(c) Formula “=F322+F339” in Cell F353;

(d) Formula “=F323+F340” in Cell F354;


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14 Copy the Range F353..F354 to Range G353 to T354;


16 Enter “1” in Cells: C37, C38 and C39;


18 Under the , insert the following information on headmaster offices in the

blank 2 rows (which is due to the previous exercise of incorporating staff rooms into the other rooms) before the

19 Enter


(b) ”Headmasters’ office to build each year” in Cell A260;

(c) Formula “=PRIM!F322” in Cell F259;

(d) Formula “=PRIM!F323” in Cell F260;

20 Copy the Range F259...F260 to G259...T260;

21 Do the same for the


2 Under the , between “Total technical assistants (Ref Row : 485)” and “Total supervisory staff (Ref Row: 486)”, insert a row;

3 Enter

(a) “Librarians” in Cell A486;

(b) the numbers of librarians (165) in the baseline year in Cell B486;

4 Copy the Range F485..T485 to F486..T486;

5 Under the , between “Ratio Teacher/Technical assistants (Ref Row: 489)” and “Ratio Teacher/Supervisory staff (Ref Row: 490)”, insert a row;

6 Enter

(a) “Ratio teacher/librarians” in cell A490;

(b) the target teacher/librarians ratio (50) in the baseline year in Cell C490;

(c) the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D490;

7 Copy the Range E489...T489 to E490...T490;


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8 Do the same for the

9 Open the RECAP worksheet;

1 0 Under , between “Total technical

assistants required (Row ref: 114)” and “Total supervisory staff required (Row ref: 115)”, insert a row;

11 Enter

(a) “Total librarians required” in Cell A115;

(b) Formula “=SEC1!F486” in Cell F115;

12 Copy the Cell F115 to G115..T115;


14 Under

, between “Technical assistants (Ref Row: 60)” and “Supervisory staff (Ref Row: 61)”, insert a row;

15 Enter

(a) “Librarians” in Cell A61;

(b) Formula “=B60” in Cell B61 since “Per capita GDP multiplier” for librarian is same as technical assistant staff;

(c) Formula =RECAP!F115*$B60*F$7*F$8” in Cell F60;

16 Copy the Cell F61 to G61...T61.

EPSSSiimm:: Educaattion Poollicy & SStrrratteegggyyyy SSSSiimmmuuuuullllllattiioon Model4 / Solutions of the Simulation Exercise: Working on Scenarios

126

ACTIVITY 2

1 Open the worksheet,

2 Under the , just before “Private”(Ref Row: 264), insert 3 rows;

3 Enter the below label in indented format

o “Of which: Fishermen” in cell A264;


o “Male” in Cell A265;

o 920 in Cell B265 (Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal, Fill color “Yellow”);

o 0.3 in Cell C265(Format of the cell should be Percentage, 0 decimal, Fill color “Yellow”);

o the expected number of years (10) to reach the target in Cell D265 (Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal, Fill color “Yellow”);

o Formula “=B265/F421” in Cell F265 to calculate the percentage of public enrolments that represent the male fishermen children;

o Formula “=IF(AND($C265=0,F265=0),0,($C265-$F265)/$D265)” in Cell E265 to calculate the annual increment; or copy a similar increment formula from the PRIM sheet – see cell E15 in PRIM;

5 Do step 4 for female (Row ref:266) with appropriate data; Please note that total public enrolment for female are in row 428;

6 Copy the formula of Cell G258 to G265 to T266;

7 Under just before “Male”(Row ref: 421), insert 3 rows;

8 Copy the Range A264...A266 to A421;

9 Enter Formula “=F424*F265” in Cell F422;

10 Copy Cell F422 to G422...T422;

11 Enter Formula “=F431*F266” in Cell F423;

12 Copy Cell F423 to G423...T423;

13 Enter formula “=SUM(F422:F423)” in Cell F421;

14 Copy Cell F421 to G421...T421.


127

ACTIVITY 3


2 Under the, replace

the label “Programme 4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2)” with “Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education)” (Ref Cell: A165);

3 For Male, in the Range F166...T166, replace the old formula with 0;

4 For Female, in Cell F167, replace the old one with a new formula “=SUM(POP!C45:C50)”;

5 Copy the Cell F167 to G167...T167;

6 Under the ,

replace the label “Programme 4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2)” with “Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education)” (Ref Cells: A191 and A221);

7 Replace the old formula with 0 at

o The row concerning “Male” under “Public” (Ref Row: 193);

o The rows concerning “Private” (Ref Row: 195..197);

8 For Female, in Cell B194, replace the one with a new formula “=B224/F167”;

9 In Cell C194, enter 10%;

10 In Cell B224, enter 15000;

11 Replace the old formula with 0 at

o The row concerning “Male” under “Public” (Ref Row: 223);

o The rows concerning “Private” (Ref Row: 226...227);

12 Under the section, replace the label “Programme

4 (Parental education in proportion to 0 to 2)” with “Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education)” (Ref Cell: A301);

13 The row concerning (Student/teacher ratio: Public), in Cell C303, enter 50; in Cell D303, enter 10;

14 Enter teacher attrition rate 5% in Cell C304;

15 Replace the new label “Category 1: Trainers” in Cell: A306;

16 Enter 125 in Cell B306;

17 Replace the new label “Category 2: Assistant trainers” in Cell: A307;

18 Enter 25 in Cell B307;

19 Replace 0 at the row concerning “Category 3” (Ref Row: 308);


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20 Enter 90% in Cell C309 and 10 in Cell D309;

21 Enter 10% in Cell C310 and 10 in Cell D310;

22 Replace 0 at the row concerning “Private” (Ref Row: 312...321);

23 Under the , replace the label “Programme 4 (Parental

education in proportion to 0 to 2)” with “Programme 4 (Family planning and life skill education)” (Cell ref: A366);

24 Enter 1 in Cells C368 and C 369;

25 Enter 3 in Cell D368 and D369;

26 Under the , replace 0 at the row concerning

“Programme 4” (Ref Row: 404...410).


2 Under the , insert (3) rows for agriculture just

before the “Medical” field (Ref Row: 132);


o “Agriculture” in Cell A132;

o “Male” in Cell A133;“Female” in Cell A134;



o 10 in Cells C121, 130, C133 and C137.

o 5 in Cell C134 (Format of the cell should be Percentage, 0 decimal, Fill color “Yellow”);

o 10 in Cells D133 and D134 (Format of the cell should be Number, 0 decimal, Fill color “Yellow”);

4 Copy Range E129..T131 to E132..T134;

5 Revise the formula of Cell C118, by adding a new Cell C133. A new formula would look like: “=C121+C124+C127+C130+C133+C136”;

6 Revise the formula of Cell C119, by adding a new Cell C133. A new formula would look like: “=C122+C125+C128+C131+C134+C137”;


129

7 Under the, insert (3) rows for agriculture just

before the “Medical” field (Ref Row: 218);


o “Agriculture” in Cell A218;

o “Male” in Cell A219;

o “Female” in Cell A220;

9 Copy Range F215...T217 to F218...F220.

ACTIVITY 4


2 Delete the rows pertaining (Ref Rows: 222 and 397);


4 Delete the rows under the (Ref Rows: 278 through 303);

5 Carefully go through the worksheet row by row to look at any #REF! and make change as necessary. Not all need to be replaced or changed. Before doing anything see relation with this cell and other cells;

6 After going through row by row, you will see in the rows 365 to 368. Remove “#REF!+” by highlighting the cells from F364 to T367. Open Excel

put the text as below;


130

7 By clicking button, Excel will remove “#REF!+” and relevant numbers will appears in all cells.

8 Do the same for “Miscellaneous” (Ref Row: 375);

9 You may find in the(Ref Row: 380),

(Ref Row: 381) and (Ref Row: 382).

Please do not change ALL. Do the step 6 and 7 for “9b. Total costs (‘Non-formal’ education)” (Ref Row: 380) and “Capital costs” (Ref Row: 382) only; will automatically disappear in “Recurrent costs” (Ref Row: 381);

10 Do the step 6 and 7 for “Wage” (Row ref: 397); will automatically disappear in “Non salary recurrent” (Ref Row: 398);

11 Under the , delete the row reference to “Early childhood care”

(Ref Row: 411);

12 Under the , delete the row

reference to “Early childhood care” (Ref Row: 427), then the rest of the will disappear;


14 Under the , delete the row

reference to “Early childhood care” (Ref Row: 143);


Carefully go through the worksheet row by row to look at any You will see in the rows 48 and 55. Revise the formula as necessary to remove the reference.


131

ACTIVITY 5


2 Under , after the Professional Training (Ref Row: 152), insert 11 rows;

3 Copy the Range A142...T151 to A153;

4 Enter

(a) “ICT Training” in Cell A153;

(b) 10% in Cell B155 and C155;

(c) 10 in Cell D155;

(d) Formula “=F155*F20” in Cell F156 (# of staff to enrol in in-service training); (F20 is the number of new primary teacher recruited);

5 Copy Cell F156 to G156..T156;

6 Do steps 4 and 5 for Secondary I and II teachers; Please note that F21 is the number of new secondary I teachers recruited and F22 is number of new secondary II teachers recruited.

7 Under the section of , before the Total In-service teacher education (Ref Row: 175), insert 4 rows;

8 Copy the Range A171...174 to A175;

9 Enter

(a) “ICT Training” in Cell A175;

(b) 30 in Cells C176,C177 and C178;

(c) Copy Cell D174 and Paste the value to D176,D177 andD178;

(d) Formula “=F156”*$C176” in Cell F176; (F156 is “# of staff to enrol in in-service training – Primary Teacher”)

(e) Formula “=F159*$C177” in Cell F177; (F159 is “# of staff to enrol in in-service training – Secondary I Teachers”)

(f) Formula “=F162*$C178” in Cell F178; (F162 is “# of staff to enrol in in-service training – Secondary II Teachers”)

10 Copy cell F176...F178 to G176...T178;

11 Replace the formula “=F167+F171” with “=F167+F171+F175” in Cell F179 to reflect the cost of ICT training in year 2010-2011;

12 Copy cell F179 to G179...T179;


14 Enter 1 in the Cell B393 to take into account of cost of “In-service teacher training programmes” in the EPSSim model.


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ACTIVITY 6


2 Select the rows containing “Student enrolments” by holding Ctrl and clicking the respective rows (Ref Rows: 11 and 20);

3 Delete these rows entirely;

4 Generate a new scenario and confirm that the new list does not include “Student enrolments”.


2 Change the label from “No of classrooms” with “No of new classrooms to build” in the concerned cells (Ref Cells: AA12 for Primary education, AA20 for Secondary education I and AA29 for Secondary education II);

3 For primary education, in Cell AB12, replace the new formula “=PRIM!F351” for base year; (PRIM!F351 is “Classrooms to build by year (Apparent)”)

4 Do the same for each of the target years (note that you cannot simply right copy in this case)

5 Similar steps 3 and 4 should be done for Secondary education I and Secondary education II sections.

6 Generate a new scenario and confirm that the changes are reflected.

ACTIVITY 7


2 Go to the Cell AD4 and change the formula from “=$C$4+5” to “=$C$4+1.” The year will change from 2015/2016 to 2011/2012;

3 Select column AD and input a blanket replacement of “!K” with “!G”2 to reflect the indicators and figures of the requested year (2011/2012). The reason is in the worksheets, data of column K is for 2015/2016 while data of column G is for 2011/2012;

4 Do steps 2 and 3 with appropriate formulas for columns AE, AF and AG;

5 Generate the current scenario and check the results.

2 Note: replacing “!K” with “!G” rather than simply “K” with “G” to avoid unwanted changes.


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ACTIVITY 8


2 Insert three rows after the 2&Simulation/Projections: 3Non-Formal Education (Row 18). Fill the rows with the following information:

Level Caption Position/Macro Divider FaceID

3 Literacy Sim_NFE1

3 School Reintegration Sim_NFE2

3 Specific NFE Programmes Sim_NFE3

3 Go to

4 Copy to and revise the content as necessary. The macro should be as below:

Open NFE Worksheet

Sheets(“NFE”).visible = True

Sheets(“NFE”).Activate

Range(“a7”).


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1 Open the Diagram worksheet;

2 Insert the three buttons as below by:

3 Copy and paste the in an empty area of the flow chart;

4 Change the text in the newly created button such as “Literacy”;

5 Move the button near to the Non formal Education button as shown above;

6 on the button and assign the macro to it, for example, assign the ;

7 Do the steps 3 to 6 for other two buttons “School Reintegration” and “Specific NFE Programmes” by changing to an appropriate text and assigning a relevant macro;

8 Save and close EPSSim and reopen it to apply changes.

5 Do the step 4 to create The macros should be as below:

Open NFE Worksheet



Range(“a78”).Select

End Sub

Open NFE Worksheet



Range(“a151”).Select

End Sub

6 Save and close EPSSim and reopen it to apply changes.


EPSSim User Guide A simulation model is a tool used to analyze and project changes to complex

social and economic systems. In education, it aims to simulate reality and

anticipate the impact of future changes so as to help improve strategic

plan ning and decision-making. Simulation models are particularly useful in

developing holistic, sector-wide education strategies.

This user guide consists of two parts. Part one provides an introduction to

simulation in education planning through the Education Policy and Strategy

Simulation Model (EPSSim). Part two provides practical exercises for using

EPSSim to help strengthen national education policy and planning.

epssim user guide - unescounesdoc.unesco.org/images/0022/002201/220198e.pdf · activity 1...

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