equity and debt outlook - sbi funds pms outlook_oct 2018.pdf · • q1 fy19 gdp accelerated to 8.2%...

Equity and Debt Outlook

October 2018

EQUITY MARKET

Global equity market snapshot: September 2018

Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research

Performance in September 2018 (local currency returns) Performance YTD (local currency returns)

Performance in September 2018 (US$ returns) Performance YTD (US$ returns)

-7 -6-4 -3

-2 -1 -1 -1-1 0

0 1 1 22

3 45 6

9

-10-8-6-4-202468

10

PHIL

IPPI

NES

INDI

A N

IFTY

SRI L

ANKA

MSC

I Ind

iaPA

KIST

ANG

ERM

ANY

MSC

I EM

INDO

NES

IATA

IWAN

HAN

G S

ENG

S&P

500

KORE

A UK

FRAN

CEDO

W JO

NES

BRAZ

ILCH

INA

JAPA

NM

SCI E

M -

EURO

PERU

SSIA

% m-o-m (local currency terms)

-15 -15-10 -9 -8

-7 -6 -5 -5-2

1 3 3 34 4 5 6

7 9

-20-15-10

-505

1015

PHIL

IPPI

NES

CHIN

A

MSC

I EM

MSC

I EM

- EU

ROPE

SRI L

ANKA

HAN

G S

ENG

INDO

NES

IA

GER

MAN

Y

KORE

A UK

PAKI

STAN

RUSS

IA

FRAN

CE

TAIW

AN

INDI

A N

IFTY

BRAZ

IL

MSC

I Ind

ia

JAPA

N

DOW

JON

ES

S&P

500

% YTD (local currency terms)

-9 -8 -8-6

-2 -1 -1 -10

0 0 2 2 22 3 3

5 69

-12-9-6-30369

12

INDI

A N

IFTY

PHIL

IPPI

NES

SRI L

ANKA

MSC

I Ind

iaPA

KIST

ANIN

DON

ESIA

GER

MAN

YM

SCI E

MHA

NG

SEN

GTA

IWAN

S&P

500

KORE

A UK

FRAN

CEDO

W JO

NES

CHIN

AJA

PAN

BRAZ

ILM

SCI E

M -

EURO

PERU

SSIA

% m-o-m (US$ returns)

-21 -19-16 -15 -14

-10 -9 -9 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7-6

0

1 35 7

9

-25-20-15-10

-505

1015

PHIL

IPPI

NES

CHIN

ASR

I LAN

KABR

AZIL

INDO

NES

IAM

SCI E

MM

SCI E

M -

EURO

PEPA

KIST

ANIN

DIA

NIF

TYG

ERM

ANY

KORE

AM

SCI I

ndia

HAN

G S

ENG UK

FRAN

CETA

IWAN

RUSS

IAJA

PAN

DOW

JON

ESS&

P 50

0

% YTD (US$ returns)

Indian stock market snapshot: September 2018


Performance in September 2018 (local currency returns) Performance YTD (local currency returns)

• Indian equity market delivered negative returns across most of the sectors (barring IT) in September. Real Estate and Telecomwere the worst performers during the month.

• Sensex and Nifty were down by nearly 6% each during the month.

• Both Mid-cap index and small-cap index were down by 13% and 16% respectively. YTD, small and mid-caps have under-performed NIFTY.

• YTD, Nifty is up 4% and Sensex is up 6%. Sector-wise performance has been negative across most of the sectors on a YTDbasis (barring IT, FMCG and Healthcare). Telecom and Real Estate are the laggards (down 39% and 35% respectively).

-20

-16-13 -13 -13

-12 -12-10 -10 -10 -9 -9

-7 -6 -6-6

-4-1

1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

REAL

EST

ATE

SMAL

L CA

P

TELE

COM

AUTO

MID

CAP

BAN

KEX

CON

SUM

ER D

URA

BLES

CAP

GOO

DS

FMCG

POW

ER PSU

BSE

500

BSE

100

NIF

TY

SEN

SEX

HEAL

THCA

RE

MET

ALS

OIL

& G

AS IT

% m-o-m

-39 -35-25 -22

-20 -19 -17 -16-11 -11 -9

-4 -3

1 2 46 8

39

-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050

TELE

COM

REAL

EST

ATE

SMAL

L CA

P

PSU

AUTO

POW

ER

MID

CAP

CON

SUM

ER D

URA

BLES

MET

ALS

CAP

GOO

DS

OIL

& G

AS

BSE

500

BAN

KEX

BSE

100

HEAL

THCA

RE

NIF

TY

SEN

SEX

FMCG I

T

% YTD

Source: CMIE economic outlook, SBIMF Research,

Q1 FY19 GDP growth accelerated to 8.2%

• Q1 FY19 GDP accelerated to 8.2% vs. 7.7% in 4Q FY18. Higher growth is explained entirely by improvedconsumption demand and lower subtraction of net exports from overall GDP.

• GVA growth rose to 8.0% against 7.6% in previous quarter. Agriculture and Industrial output picked up whileservices moderated, but remained above 7%.

Q1 FY19 GDP growth robust at 8.2% y-o-y and GVA at 8.0% y-o-y

8.8

7.68.0

9.3

5.6

7.7

8.2

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0Ju

n-12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Sep-

17

Dec-

17

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Real GVA at basic prices (%y-o-y)

Real GDP (% y-o-y)

Source: CMIE economic outlook, RBI SBIMF Research; NB: Pink highlighted cells denoted moderation in growth than previous month and Green denotes an improvement in growth than previous month.

Economic activity moderated in AugustWe see some signs of moderation in economic activity in July-August. Mining and electricity generation depicted a weaker growth intheir latest data print. While the overall agriculture outlook remains strong, few of the rural oriented indicators such as 2-wheelersales, tractor sales, fertilizer production showed 1st sign of moderation (perhaps due to high base). On the positive side, barring steelproduction (perhaps due to limited free capacity), most infrastructure indicators are holding strong. Industrial activity picked up in July.Most consumption related indicators continue to hold as well. To sum, the breadth of economic strength is ebbing at the margin. Assuch, we expect Q3 FY19 growth to be lower than Q2’s.

% growth Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 5yr averageIndicators that are Robust

Bank retail loans 17.8 19.1 18.6 17.9 16.7 18.2 16.3Currency in circulation 37.0 32.9 29.8 27.7 25.1 22.7 10.8Domestic air traffic 26.9 25.0 16.1 17.8 21.6 16.9 17.3Domestic capital goods production -3.1 9.8 6.9 9.8 3.0 N/A 2.1Imports of capital goods 26.2 12.4 36.1 26.4 32.1 46.5 3.0Domestic sale of commercial vehicles 24.6 76.0 43.1 41.7 29.7 29.6 7.3Foreign tourist arrivals 13.4 4.4 -3.9 2.7 3.5 9.1 9.5Imports of consumption goods -7.3 -9.9 7.9 1.7 9.9 12.9 10.1Services exports 18.7 36.1 20.4 26.0 33.2 N/A 5.2AUM of mutual funds 21.7 20.7 18.7 20.6 15.5 22.4 23.7Total freight handled 3.3 5.8 5.0 5.7 4.4 6.7 3.6Cement production 13.5 21.9 13.0 13.2 11.1 14.3 5.0Bitumen consumption 10.2 20.3 5.1 23.0 54.1 19.0 8.1

Indicators that have recently turned positiveDomestic industrial production 5.3 4.5 3.9 6.9 6.6 N/A 4.2Merchandise exports -0.4 4.4 20.2 18.0 16.2 19.3 1.8

Indicators that have weakened in recent monthsDomestic sale of two-wheelers 18.3 16.9 9.2 22.3 8.2 2.9 9.3Domestic sale of passenger Cars 0.4 4.9 19.6 34.2 -0.4 -1.0 4.7Fertilizers production 3.2 4.6 8.4 1.0 1.3 -5.3 2.3Mining production 3.1 3.8 5.8 6.6 3.7 N/A 3.0Tractor sales 50.7 21.8 20.1 34.7 16.9 12.7 7.7Electricity production 6.0 2.1 4.1 8.4 6.7 5.4 7.7

Indicators that are weak for longRural wage growth 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.5 N/A N/A 6.1Bank industrial credit 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 1.9 4.1

Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, imd.gov.in, pib.nic.in, cwc.gov.in, SBIMF Research

Agriculture trends are healthy in FY18-19

Live storage in major reservoirs as on 27th September is at 76% of the full reservoir level higher than 65% a year ago

FY19 Kharif sowing likely to be 5.4% higher than last year despite the weakness in rainfall

• South West monsoon in 2018 was below normal (-9.4%below the LPA). Out of 29 states, 19 states witnessedeither deficient or below normal rainfall this season.

• Despite the weak rain, Kharif sowing was higher than lastyear and 1st Advance estimate of Kharif productionindicates likelihood of 5.4% growth in output (whencompared to 1st advance estimate of last year).

• Live storage in major reservoirs as on 27th September is at76% of the full reservoir level vis-à-vis 65% correspondingperiod last year. This portends well for the up-coming Rabiseason as well.

Reservoir level data

- as on Sep 27

No. of reservoirs

Live Storage Capacity

(BCM)

Current Storage (BCM)

Avg of last 10 years (% of live storage

capacity)

Last year(% of

live storage

capacity)

Current (% of live

storage capacity)

Northern Region 6 18 16 83 84 90

Eastern Region 15 19 16 75 75 86

Western Region 27 31 18 68 72 56

Central Region 12 42 34 74 64 81

Southern Region 31 52 38 67 50 74

Total India 91 162 123 72 65 76

South-West Monsoon 2018 witnesses below normal rainfall

RegionSouth-West Monsoon 2018(% departure from normal)

All India -9.4

North-West -2.0

East & North-East -24.3

Central India -6.5

South Peninsular -1.6

Two-wheeler and Tractor sales showing the nascent signs of growth moderation albeit over a high base

Source: CMIE economic outlook, Ministry of Agriculture, SBIMF Research

Rural demand moderated a bit in August but still healthy

FMCG Sales growth grew by 12.6% y-o-y in Q1FY19 vs. 8.9% y-o-y in Q4 FY18

• Few of the rural oriented indicators such as 2-wheeler sales, tractor sales, fertilizer production showed 1st sign of moderation(perhaps due to high base) however, some of the other indicators like FMCG goods, lower end white goods continue to show anincrease in the rural demand in last two-three quarters.

• Looking ahead, fourth consecutive season of higher agricultural output is leading to higher output. Along with this, due to pre-election period, the focus on rural oriented construction activity, access to formal lending channel, better roads, electricity andinternet penetration are leading to the pick-up in rural demand for the related sectors.

• Overall, the agricultural outlook remains strong.

-202468

101214161820

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

Aug-

17

Jan-

18

Jun-

18

BSE 500: FMCG Sales growth (in %)

21 companies in BSE 500

Source: RBI, CMIE Economic Outlook, SBIMF Research,

Aggregate commercial credit is picking up

Aggregate commercial credit is picking upBank credit growth is outpacing the deposit growth

Retail lending dominates the bank lending growth Housing loans make the big share in personal loans space

Aug-18 (% y-o-y) Average 3 mths (% y-o-y) % Share

Personal Loans 18 18 100

Housing 17 16 52

Other Personal Loans 29 26 26

Vehicle Loans 13 12 10

Credit Card 37 33 4

Education -1 -1 4

Loan against FD 11 12 3

Consumer Durables -81 -15 1

Loan against Shares, bonds 11 11 0

Source: RBI, FICCI, CMIE economic outlook, SBIMF Research,

Capacity utilization improved to 75.2% by FY18 end

Improved capacity utilization yet to translate into fresh capex decisions

Auto, metals, food processing, and electronics sector show higher capacity utilization

New project announcement is lack-lustreFDI inflows picked up to US$12 billion in Apr-Jul FY19

Source: CMIE economic outlook, SBIMF Research,

Outlook: FY19 growth is expected to improve to 7.5%

Growth is likely to improve further to 7.5% y-o-y in FY19

• FY19 growth is expected to surge to 7.5% y-o-y.

• Looking ahead, higher oil and other commodity prices, widening of trade deficit and monetary tightening pose risks to a robustgrowth outlook, while government infrastructure push, fading away of GST-related disruptions and the seeping in of theproductivity benefits, rising global growth and improved business sentiments will provide the positive support.

5.5

6.4

7.4

8.2

7.1

6.7

7.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 E

% growth

Source: MOSL, Capitaline, SBIFM Research;

FY19 NIFTY EPS is expected to grow by 19% vs. 6% in FY18

Corporate profit as percentage of GDP is likely to have bottomed out

FY19 earnings outlook

• FY19 demand outlook for consumer oriented companiessuch as FMCG, auto, paints remain buoyed by the pick-upin rural demand. NBFCs too, are holding robust growth.

• Metal and Oil & Gas sectors are being supported by arecovery in global growth and pricing power.

• On the other hand, Bank earnings thus far have continuedto be impacted by the recognition of impaired loans.

• EBITDA margin may remain under pressure for thequarters ahead as rupee slides, the raw material costsescalate and competitive pressures in some of the sectors(such as telecom, aviation, staples and auto) inhibits thecapacity to take the parallel price hikes.

• Earnings have been revised downward. Financial Year-to-Date, we have seen 2-3% downgrade in NIFTY earnings.

• Corporate profit as percentage of GDP has hit anextremely low point and should logically mean revert.

• We expect FY19 earnings to grow by 19% (vs. 6% inFY18) , aided by the growth tailwinds and favorable base.

• Earnings revival are absolutely critical for rich valuations tosustain.

3.0

4.75.4

6.2

7.37.8

5.5

6.5 6.2

4.9 4.6 4.33.8

3.13.5

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

Average of 5.1%

Liquidity: FIIs pulled out while DIIs were net investors in SeptemberFIIs sold US$ 1.49 billion during the month


Mutual funds continue to invest in Indian equities Insurance investors have been volatile in their equity investment trends

-4-3-2-10123456

Jul-1

5S

ep-1

5N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6S

ep-1

6N

ov-1

6Ja

n-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7S

ep-1

7N

ov-1

7Ja

n-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8S

ep-1

8

Net FII Investment (US$ billion)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jul-1

5S

ep-1

5N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6S

ep-1

6N

ov-1

6Ja

n-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7S

ep-1

7N

ov-1

7Ja

n-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8S

ep-1

8Net Domestic MF Investment (US$ billion)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-

18

Net Domestic Insurance Investment (US$ billion)

Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research,

Indian Equity Valuations relative to emerging markets

India MSCI P/E compared to MSCI EM index is at 56% premium which is a relatively high…

…and the relative return on equity (RoE) has fallen

82 83

103

55

9588

71

64 66

8169

8084

15

40

65

90

115

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Average of 78% for the period

Valuations have corrected in September

Valuations have corrected across the capitalization curve

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL, SBIMF Research,

Market Cap to GDP rose to eight year high Valuations relative to bond market have also corrected to ~36% premium compared to +50% last month

Sector-wise valuations

Barring IT and Materials, valuations have corrected across the sectors. Industrials and Utilities have gone below their long term average

Source: Capitaline, Bloomberg, NB: *FY19 Earnings are based on Bloomberg Consensus estimate

P/E (based on FY19 earnings*)

Sectors Jan-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Avg (20 years)

NIFTY Index 19.1 17.8 18.0 16.6 15.6

Consumer Discretionary 21.8 19.3 19.0 16.3 15.0

Consumer Staples 38.4 33.4 35.0 32.0 24.9

Energy 13.7 12.3 12.6 12.5 11.1

Financials 23.1 20.9 20.6 17.9 14.4

Health Care 32.3 25.6 28.1 26.9 23.0

Industrials 25.0 20.4 20.8 18.9 20.2

Information Technology 16.6 18.3 19.4 19.7 17.9

Materials 13.0 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.2

Telecommunication Services 74.5 56.0 52.8 45.0 27.2

Utilities 12.1 10.5 11.2 10.8 12.7

Green implies higher than long-term average

Equity Market outlook

Nifty is trading at ~17 times forward earnings


• Indian equities have seen meaningful correction last month. NIFTY fell6% during the month. YTD, while the index is up 4%, it is only a handfulof stocks which is contributing to the rise.

• Barring IT all sectors delivered negative performance. Performancedown the capitalization curve was worse with mid and small cap down13% and 16% respectively.

• The fall in the market was triggered by the events of credit default inspecific NBFC companies which led investors to extrapolate the risks onall NBFCs with asset-liability mismatch and the effect of NBFCs to thefinancial market in general. Further, the government’s decision to makethe OMCs take a rupee hit on the petrol and diesel prices bore a sniff ofsome reversal in deregulation efforts of the past. It wasn’t perceived anypleasantly either.

• FIIs sold US$ 1.5 billion in the Indian equities though it was equallymatched by the DII investors.

• Amidst macro headwinds (rising import bill, tightening liquidity, rising costof funds and raw materials, fiscal pressure raising the probability ofclamp-down on government capital expenditures) and upcoming politicaluncertainty, we remain cautious and focus on bottom-up stock selection.

• Notwithstanding the current hazy environment, the sharp sell-off has ledvaluations to correct, particularly sharply in the mid-and small capnames. It has created pockets in markets which have turned cheaper forinvestors with a long-term horizon.

810121416182022

May

-05

Jan-

06Se

p-06

May

-07

Jan-

08Se

p-08

May

-09

Jan-

10Se

p-10

May

-11

Jan-

12Se

p-12

May

-13

Jan-

14Se

p-14

May

-15

Jan-

16Se

p-16

May

-17

Jan-

18Se

p-18

NIFTY 12M Fwd PE Ratio

Mean

+1 SD

-1 SD

Fixed Income Market

Global developments weighing on EM Fixed Income

Source: Bloomberg, Various media reports, SBIMF Research

US Actions• Trade conflicts with China• New NAFTA agreement is yet to strike the final chord.• Sanctions on Iran• Sanctions on Russia’s trade of defense and intelligence sectors after Russia’s annexation of Crimea• Sanctions on Turkey: Announced a doubling of tariffs on US imports of Turkish steel and aluminum.

Rising Crude Oil Prices• Brent (US$/bbl.) moved up by 6.1% during the month, as the US sanctions on Iran led to a steep drop in Iranian oil.

EM Specific Developments• Pakistan could seek IMF bailout amid balance-of-payments crisis.• Argentina is under the process of bailout from IMF. The bailout is likely to be $57.4 billion by the end of 2021.• South Africa entered into recession after its economy shrank by 0.8% in Q2 2018• Turkey: US sanctions on doubling of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports. Along with this, rising inflation,

widening of CAD and a falling currency are stoking fears Turkey is on the verge of financial and economic crisis.• Brazil is witnessing a political and fiscal risk which is acting as a catalyst for weakening of the real.• Russia: Russian ruble is weakening on account of strong dollar, global trade tensions and the risk of new U.S. sanctions

against Moscow bought dollars. However, higher oil prices are providing some support to the ruble.

Political Developments in Eurozone• New fiscal plans raised by Italian government would see government spending rise and put it in conflict with other

Eurozone nations

Global Monetary Tightening• Developed markets are gradually increasing their policy rates.• Gradual Quantitative tightening by Major Central Banks

Developed Market Bond Yields: September 2018


• US bond yields inched up by 20bps in September 2018. YTD the US bond yields has risen by 66bps on account of robustUS GDP data and Fed's rate hike. Fed indicated a possibility of three or more rate hikes in 2019.

• Barring Italy, bond yields for other key developed markets too inched up during the month. Bond yields in Italy fell onreports that Rome plans to cut the budget deficit faster than indicated, easing fears about the fiscal policy.

10 Year Gsec Yield

(% mth end)2016 end 2017 end Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

m-o-m change (in bps)

3m Change (in bps)

% change in YTD (in bps)

Developed market

US 2.44 2.41 2.86 2.96 2.86 3.06 20 20 66

Germany 0.21 0.43 0.30 0.44 0.33 0.47 14 17 4

Italy 1.82 2.02 2.68 2.72 3.24 3.15 -9 47 113

Japan 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.11 0.13 2 9 8

Spain 1.38 1.57 1.32 1.40 1.47 1.50 3 18 -7

Switzerland -0.19 -0.15 -0.06 -0.01 -0.10 0.04 13 10 19

Emerging market bond yields: September 2018


• Bond yields in Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and Taiwan moderated during the month while, it rose for the other key emergingmarkets.

• YTD, bond yields have risen across all key emerging markets (except China, South Korea and Taiwan).

10 Year Gsec Yield

(% mth end)2016 end 2017 end Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

m-o-m change (in bps)

3m Change (in bps)

% change in YTD (in bps)

Emerging Market

Brazil 11.40 10.26 11.68 11.18 12.20 11.76 -44 8 150

China 3.06 3.90 3.48 3.49 3.60 3.63 3 15 -28

India 6.52 7.33 7.90 7.77 7.95 8.02 7 12 70

Indonesia 7.91 6.29 7.74 7.72 8.16 8.06 -10 32 177

South Korea 2.09 2.47 2.56 2.57 2.31 2.36 4 -20 -11

Malaysia 4.23 3.91 4.20 4.08 4.04 4.07 3 -13 16

Phillippines 4.64 4.93 6.46 6.52 6.38 6.49 10 2 156

Russia 8.36 7.49 7.68 7.70 8.70 8.53 -17 85 105

Taiwan 1.22 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.84 0.83 -1 -15 -15

Thailand 2.65 2.32 2.58 2.71 2.74 2.80 6 22 48

Global policy rate snapshot

Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research; NB: * Indonesia had announced to use new policy benchmark i.e. 7-day reverse report rate as its benchmark policy rate in April 2016; Red highlighted cells indicates interest rate hike and green denotes a rate cut.

Global policy rate is on the rise across most key economiesPolicy rate (in %), end period 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

US 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25Canada 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50China 5.60 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10India 8.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50Australia 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50South Korea 2.00 1.50 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50Indonesia 4.75 4.25 4.25 5.25 5.75Taiwan 1.88 1.63 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38Thailand 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50Malaysia 3.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25Singapore 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08Hong Kong 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50Phillippines 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.25 8.25New Zealand 3.50 2.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75Eurozone 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00UK 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75Switzerland -0.25 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75Russia 17.00 11.00 10.00 7.75 7.25 7.25 7.50Turkey 8.25 7.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 17.75 24.00Saudi Arabia 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75Poland 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50South Africa 5.75 6.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.50Brazil 11.75 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50Mexico 3.00 3.25 5.75 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75Argentina 28.00 21.00 26.00 26.75 25.50 37.75 50.00Colombia 4.50 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.25Chile 3.00 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

Tightening Global Liquidity can impact the FII flows in EMs

Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Respective central banks, SBIMF Research

Balance Sheet by Aug 2008 (US$ Bn)

As % of GDP Balance-sheet by Dec 2017 (US$ bn)

As % GDP Change

US Fed 911 6.2 4,449 23.0 3,538 ECB 2,126 15.1 5,368 42.6 3,242 BoE 139 4.8 766 29.9 627 BoJ 1,010 20.0 4,627 94.7 3,617 Total 4,186 11.4 15,210 38.6 11,024

Asset Purchase Programs contributed to US$ 11 billion increase in Central Banks’ balance-sheet between 2008-2017

Balance-sheet by Dec 2017 (US$ bn)

Expected Balance-Sheet by 2018 end 2018 minus 2017

Expected Balance-sheet by 2019 2019 minus 2018

US Fed 4,449 4,028 -421 3,428 -600 ECB 5,368 5,391 23 5,031 -360 BoE 766 779 13 779 - BoJ 4,627 5,080 453 5,265 185 Total 15,210 15,279 68 14,503 -776

Quantitative tightening to begin from 2019

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Mar

-01

Jan-

02N

ov-0

2Se

p-03

Jul-0

4M

ay-0

5M

ar-0

6Ja

n-07

Nov

-07

Sep-

08Ju

l-09

May

-10

Mar

-11

Jan-

12N

ov-1

2Se

p-13

Jul-1

4M

ay-1

5M

ar-1

6Ja

n-17

Nov

-17

Change in G4 central bank assets Total gross inflows into EM

US$ billion, 4Q rolling sum

QE had aided the FII inflows into Emerging Markets

Monetary Policy

Bloom TickerFDTR IndexEURR002W IndexUKBRBASE IndexCHRRDEPC IndexBloom TickerUSGG10YR IndexGECU10YR Indexgtjpy10yr coRP

DatesFed RateFed Rate ExpectationECB RateBank of England RateBank of England Rate ExpectationBank of China RateBank of England RateDatesUS 10yr G-Sec yieldEU 10yr G-Sec yieldJapan 10yr G-Sec yield

1/31/052.2524.7531-01-20054.133.551.32

2/28/052.524.752/28/054.383.721.47

3/31/052.7524.753/31/054.483.621.32

4/29/052.7524.754/29/054.203.401.24

5/31/05324.755/31/053.983.271.24

6/30/053.2524.756/30/053.913.131.16

7/29/053.2524.757/29/054.283.241.30

8/31/053.524.58/31/054.013.101.34

9/30/053.7524.59/30/054.323.151.47

10/31/053.7524.510/31/054.553.391.54

11/30/05424.511/30/054.483.461.43

12/30/054.252.254.512/30/054.393.311.47

1/31/064.52.254.51/31/064.523.471.56

2/28/064.52.254.52/28/064.553.491.59

3/31/064.752.54.53/31/064.853.771.77

4/28/064.752.54.54/28/065.053.951.92

5/31/0652.54.55/31/065.123.981.83

6/30/065.252.754.586/30/065.144.071.92

7/31/065.252.754.58.57/31/064.983.921.92

8/31/065.2534.758.58/31/064.733.761.62

9/29/065.2534.758.59/29/064.633.711.67

10/31/065.253.254.758.510/31/064.603.741.71

11/30/065.253.255911/30/064.463.701.65

12/29/065.253.55912/29/064.703.951.69

1/31/075.253.55.259.51/31/074.814.101.70

2/28/075.253.55.25102/28/074.573.961.64

3/30/075.253.755.25103/30/074.644.061.66

4/30/075.253.755.25114/30/074.624.151.66

5/31/075.253.755.511.55/31/074.894.421.75

6/29/075.2545.511.56/29/075.024.571.88

7/31/075.2545.75127/31/074.744.351.80

8/31/075.2545.75128/31/074.534.241.61

9/28/074.7545.7512.59/28/074.594.331.69

10/31/074.545.751310/31/074.474.241.61

11/30/074.545.7513.511/30/073.944.131.48

12/31/074.2545.514.512/31/074.024.331.51

1/31/08345.5151/31/083.593.931.44

2/29/08345.25152/29/083.513.891.37

3/31/082.2545.2515.53/31/083.413.901.28

4/30/08245164/30/083.734.121.59

5/30/0824516.55/30/084.064.411.76

6/30/0824517.56/30/083.974.621.60

7/31/0824.25517.57/31/083.954.361.54

8/29/0824.25517.58/29/083.814.181.42

9/30/0824.25517.59/30/083.824.021.47

10/31/0813.754.51710/31/083.953.901.48

11/28/0813.2531611/28/082.923.261.40

12/31/080.252.5215.512/31/082.212.951.18

1/30/090.2521.515.51/30/092.843.301.30

2/27/090.252115.52/27/093.013.111.28

3/31/090.251.50.515.53/31/092.662.991.35

4/30/090.251.250.515.54/30/093.123.181.43

5/29/090.2510.515.55/29/093.463.591.49

6/30/090.2510.515.56/30/093.533.391.36

7/31/090.2510.515.57/31/093.483.301.42

8/31/090.251#N/A N/A15.58/31/093.403.261.31

9/30/090.2510.515.59/30/093.313.221.30

10/30/090.2510.515.510/30/093.383.231.42

11/30/090.2510.515.511/30/093.203.161.27

12/31/090.2510.515.512/31/093.843.391.30

1/29/100.2510.5161/29/103.583.201.33

2/26/100.2510.516.52/26/103.613.101.31

3/31/100.2510.516.53/31/103.833.091.40

4/30/100.2510.516.54/30/103.653.021.29

5/31/100.2510.5175/31/103.282.661.27

6/30/100.2510.5176/30/102.932.581.09

7/30/100.2510.5177/30/102.912.671.07

8/31/100.2510.5178/31/102.472.120.97

9/30/100.2510.5179/30/102.512.280.94

10/29/100.2510.51710/29/102.602.520.94

11/30/100.2510.51811/30/102.802.671.19

12/31/100.2510.518.512/31/103.292.961.13

1/31/110.2510.5191/31/113.373.161.22

2/28/110.2510.519.52/28/113.433.171.26

3/31/110.2510.5203/31/113.473.351.26

4/29/110.251.25#N/A N/A20.54/29/113.293.241.21

5/31/110.251.250.5215/31/113.063.021.16

6/30/110.251.250.521.56/30/113.163.031.14

7/29/110.251.50.521.57/29/112.802.541.08

8/31/110.251.50.521.58/31/112.222.221.03

9/30/110.251.50.521.59/30/111.921.891.03

10/31/110.251.50.521.510/31/112.112.031.04

11/30/110.251.250.52111/30/112.072.281.07

12/30/110.2510.52112/30/111.881.830.98

1/31/120.2510.5211/31/121.801.790.96

2/29/120.2510.520.52/29/121.971.820.96

3/30/120.2510.520.53/30/122.211.790.98

4/30/120.2510.520.54/30/121.911.660.89

5/31/120.2510.5205/31/121.561.200.82

6/29/120.2510.5206/29/121.641.580.83

7/31/120.250.750.5207/31/121.471.290.79

8/31/120.250.750.5208/31/121.551.330.79

9/28/120.250.750.5209/28/121.631.440.77

10/31/120.250.750.52010/31/121.691.460.77

11/30/120.250.750.52011/30/121.621.390.71

12/31/120.250.750.52012/31/121.761.320.79

1/31/130.250.750.5201/31/131.981.680.75

2/28/130.250.750.5202/28/131.881.450.66

3/29/130.250.75#N/A N/A203/29/131.851.290.55

4/30/130.250.750.5204/30/131.671.220.60

5/31/130.250.50.5205/31/132.131.510.85

6/28/130.250.50.5206/28/132.491.730.85

7/31/130.250.50.5207/31/132.581.670.80

8/30/130.250.50.5208/30/132.781.860.72

9/30/130.250.50.5209/30/132.611.780.68

10/31/130.250.50.52010/31/132.551.670.59

11/29/130.250.250.52011/29/132.741.690.60

12/31/130.250.250.52012/31/133.031.930.74

1/31/140.250.250.5201/31/142.641.660.62

2/28/140.250.250.5202/28/142.651.620.58

3/31/140.250.250.5203/31/142.721.570.64

4/30/140.250.250.5204/30/142.651.470.62

5/30/140.250.250.5205/30/142.481.360.57

6/30/140.250.150.5206/30/142.531.250.56

7/31/140.250.150.5207/31/142.561.160.53

8/29/140.250.150.5208/29/142.340.890.49

9/30/140.250.050.5209/30/142.490.950.53

10/31/140.250.050.52010/31/142.340.840.45

11/28/140.250.050.52011/28/142.160.700.42

12/31/140.250.050.52012/31/142.170.540.32

1/30/150.250.050.5201/30/151.640.300.27

2/27/150.250.050.519.52/27/151.990.330.33

3/31/150.250.050.519.53/31/151.920.180.40

4/30/150.250.050.518.54/30/152.030.370.34

5/29/150.250.050.518.55/29/152.120.490.39

6/30/150.250.050.518.56/30/152.350.760.46

7/31/150.250.050.518.57/31/152.180.640.41

8/31/150.250.050.5188/31/152.220.800.38

9/30/150.250.050.5189/30/152.040.590.35

10/30/150.250.050.517.510/30/152.140.520.30

11/30/150.250.050.517.511/30/152.210.470.30

12/31/150.50.050.517.512/31/152.270.630.26

1/29/160.50.050.517.51/29/161.920.330.10

2/29/160.50.050.5172/29/161.730.11-0.07

3/31/160.500.5173/31/161.770.15-0.04

4/29/160.500.5174/29/161.830.27-0.08

5/31/160.500.5175/31/161.850.14-0.12

6/30/160.500.5176/30/161.47-0.13-0.22

7/29/160.500.5177/29/161.45-0.12-0.20

8/31/160.500.25178/31/161.58-0.07-0.07

9/30/160.500.25179/30/161.59-0.12-0.09

10/31/160.500.251710/31/161.830.16-0.05

11/30/160.500.251711/30/162.380.280.02

12/30/160.7500.251712/30/162.440.210.04

1/31/170.7500.25171/31/172.450.440.08

2/28/170.7500.25172/28/172.390.210.05

3/31/17100.25173/31/172.390.330.07

4/28/17100.25174/28/172.280.320.01

5/31/17100.25175/31/172.200.300.04

6/30/171.2500.25176/30/172.300.470.08

7/31/171.2500.25177/31/172.290.540.08

8/31/171.2500.25178/31/172.120.360.00

9/29/171.2500.25179/29/172.330.460.06

10/31/171.2500.251710/31/172.380.360.06

11/30/171.2500.51711/30/172.410.370.03

12/29/171.500.51712/29/172.410.430.04

1/31/181.500.5171/31/182.710.700.08

2/28/181.500.5172/28/182.860.660.05

3/30/181.7500.5173/30/182.740.500.04

4/30/181.7500.5164/30/182.950.560.05

5/31/182200.50.5165/31/182.860.340.03

6/30/182200.50.515.5

12/31/182.50.5

12/31/193.10.75

12/31/203.4

Fed Rate3838338411384423847138503385333856238595386253865638686387163874838776388073883538868388983892938960389893902139051390803911339141391713920239233392623929439325393533938639416394473947839507395383956839598396293966039689397213975239780398133984339871399033993339962399944002540056400864011640147401784020740235402684029840329403594038940421404514048040512405434057440602406334066240694407244075340786408164084740877409074093940968409984102941060410894112141152411804121341243412744130541333413624139441425414534148641516415474157841607416394167041698417294175941789418204185141880419124194341971420044203442062420944212442153421854221642247422774230742338423694239842429424604248942521425514258042613426434267442704427344276642794428254285342886429164294742978430074303943069430984313143159431894322043251432814346543830441962.252.52.752.7533.253.253.53.753.7544.254.54.54.754.7555.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.254.754.54.54.25332.25222222110.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.750.750.751111.251.251.251.251.251.251.51.51.51.751.752ECB Rate383833841138442384713850338533385623859538625386563868638716387483877638807388353886838898389293896038989390213905139080391133914139171392023923339262392943932539353393863941639447394783950739538395683959839629396603968939721397523978039813398433987139903399333996239994400254005640086401164014740178402074023540268402984032940359403894042140451404804051240543405744060240633406624069440724407534078640816408474087740907409394096840998410294106041089411214115241180412134124341274413054133341362413944142541453414864151641547415784160741639416704169841729417594178941820418514188041912419434197142004420344206242094421244215342185422164224742277423074233842369423984242942460424894252142551425804261342643426744270442734427664279442825428534288642916429474297843007430394306943098431314315943189432204325143281434654383044196222222222222.252.252.252.52.52.52.752.75333.253.253.53.53.53.753.753.7544444444444444.254.254.253.753.252.5221.51.25111111111111111111111111.251.251.251.51.51.51.51.2511111110.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.50.50.50.50.50.50.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.150.150.150.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.05000000000000000000000000000Fed Rate Expectation383833841138442384713850338533385623859538625386563868638716387483877638807388353886838898389293896038989390213905139080391133914139171392023923339262392943932539353393863941639447394783950739538395683959839629396603968939721397523978039813398433987139903399333996239994400254005640086401164014740178402074023540268402984032940359403894042140451404804051240543405744060240633406624069440724407534078640816408474087740907409394096840998410294106041089411214115241180412134124341274413054133341362413944142541453414864151641547415784160741639416704169841729417594178941820418514188041912419434197142004420344206242094421244215342185422164224742277423074233842369423984242942460424894252142551425804261342643426744270442734427664279442825428534288642916429474297843007430394306943098431314315943189432204325143281434654383044196222.53.13.4

US 10yr G-Sec yield38383384113844238471385033853338562385953862538656386863871638748387763880738835388683889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432514.12800000000000014.37659999999999984.48149999999999964.19759999999999963.98099999999999993.91300000000000034.27599999999999984.01374.32399999999999984.55060000000000024.4844.39109999999999984.51520000000000014.55100000000000024.84725.05050000000000045.11859999999999985.13640000000000014.97944.72579999999999964.62760000000000024.59809999999999964.45814.70220000000000044.80799999999999984.56569999999999964.64430000000000034.62220000000000034.88790000000000015.02444.73880000000000034.52920000000000034.58654.47079999999999973.93794.02320000000000013.59309999999999973.50919999999999993.40960000000000023.72794.05949999999999993.96899999999999993.94620000000000023.81159999999999993.82339999999999993.95299999999999982.922.21229999999999992.84033.01310000000000012.66293.11873.45943.53263.47963.39753.30529999999999993.38283.19783.83680000000000023.58443.61169999999999993.82569999999999993.65323.28480000000000022.93109999999999982.90519999999999982.46830000000000022.50980000000000032.59929999999999992.79680000000000023.29349999999999993.37040000000000013.42723.47029999999999993.28629999999999983.06070000000000023.162.79612.22339999999999981.91542.11330000000000022.06800000000000011.87619999999999991.79709999999999991.97049999999999992.20880000000000011.91371.55779999999999991.64491.46791.54841.63351.69010000000000021.61560000000000011.75740000000000011.98490000000000011.87559999999999991.84861.67172.12820000000000012.48572.57622.78392.612.55419999999999982.74449999999999993.02822.64400000000000012.64759999999999972.7182.64590000000000012.47590000000000022.53040000000000022.55779999999999992.34310000000000022.48879999999999992.33530000000000022.16400000000000012.17119999999999981.64071.99299999999999991.92312.03169999999999982.12142.35312.18009999999999992.21790000000000022.03679999999999992.14210000000000012.2062.26940000000000011.92090000000000011.73470000000000011.76869999999999991.83329999999999991.84580000000000011.46971.45310000000000011.581.59441.82549999999999992.38092.44430000000000012.45310000000000012.38989999999999992.38742.28019999999999982.20279999999999992.30370000000000012.29422.1172.33360000000000012.37930000000000022.40972.40540000000000022.70500000000000012.86059999999999982.73890000000000012.95310000000000012.8586EU 10yr G-Sec yield38383384113844238471385033853338562385953862538656386863871638748387763880738835388683889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432513.54700000000000023.71499999999999993.62199999999999993.39599999999999993.2743.13399999999999993.24299999999999993.10199999999999993.14800000000000013.3913.45500000000000013.30900000000000023.46700000000000013.48899999999999993.77099999999999993.95100000000000013.98200000000000024.07099999999999973.92100000000000033.763.70900000000000013.74100000000000013.69499999999999983.9484.09999999999999963.95699999999999994.05700000000000044.15399999999999994.42199999999999974.57399999999999984.34699999999999954.2424.32899999999999974.23899999999999994.12600000000000034.33100000000000043.933.8913.8994.12300000000000024.40500000000000024.62100000000000044.35500000000000044.17600000000000024.01499999999999973.93.2582.95100000000000013.29599999999999983.11200000000000012.99399999999999983.17799999999999993.5893.38600000000000013.33.25700000000000013.223.23099999999999993.15899999999999983.3873.19600000000000023.1013.09200000000000013.01699999999999992.662.5772.6692.11600000000000012.27499999999999992.51799999999999982.672.96300000000000013.15499999999999983.173.35400000000000013.23899999999999993.023.02499999999999992.53800000000000032.21899999999999991.8872.02499999999999992.28000000000000021.8291.78699999999999991.81800000000000011.7941.6631.21.5831.28499999999999991.33400000000000011.44199999999999991.4621.38600000000000011.31600000000000011.68000000000000021.4541.28899999999999991.2161.50499999999999991.7281.671.85599999999999991.77899999999999991.67399999999999991.69300000000000011.9291.6591.62400000000000011.56599999999999981.46899999999999991.35800000000000011.24500000000000011.1550.890.946999999999999950.840999999999999970.70.541000000000000040.301999999999999990.328000000000000010.180.365999999999999990.486999999999999990.764000000000000010.644000000000000020.798000000000000040.586999999999999970.517000000000000020.472999999999999980.6290.325000000000000010.1070.1530.271000000000000020.13900000000000001-0.13-0.11899999999999999-6.5000000000000002E-2-0.118999999999999990.163000000000000010.275000000000000020.207999999999999990.4360.207999999999999990.328000000000000010.3170.303999999999999990.466000000000000030.543000000000000040.360999999999999990.464000000000000020.362999999999999990.366999999999999990.426999999999999990.696999999999999950.656000000000000030.4970.559000000000000050.34100000000000003Japan 10yr G-Sec yield38383384113844238471385033853338562385953862538656386863871638748387763880738835388683889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432511.321.46500000000000011.321.23499999999999991.23899999999999991.16399999999999991.30299999999999991.3391.4741.5441.431.471.561.5851.771.921.831.921.9191.621.6651.711.6451.68500000000000011.7041.63600000000000011.6591.66000000000000011.75300000000000011.8791.81.6131.68500000000000011.60999999999999991.4781.511.441.3651.2841.5851.75899999999999991.6011.53900000000000011.4151.4721.4761.3991.1751.29699999999999991.281.3531.43199999999999991.491.3591.4191.311.30099999999999991.4151.2661.29499999999999991.3251.30499999999999991.41.291.26500000000000011.0911.07400000000000010.970999999999999970.940.938999999999999951.1941.12800000000000011.21900000000000011.2641.261.211.15799999999999991.1351.0771.02899999999999991.02699999999999991.04099999999999991.06699999999999990.982999999999999980.961999999999999970.957999999999999960.983999999999999990.892000000000000020.818999999999999950.831999999999999960.789000000000000030.792000000000000040.772000000000000020.770.710.786000000000000030.7490.658000000000000030.546000000000000040.603999999999999980.851999999999999980.847999999999999980.797000000000000040.714999999999999970.681000000000000050.590.60.735999999999999990.616999999999999990.580999999999999960.637000000000000010.6220.572999999999999950.561000000000000050.533000000000000030.490999999999999990.526000000000000020.453000000000000010.415999999999999980.322000000000000010.272000000000000020.329000000000000010.396000000000000020.336000000000000020.389000000000000010.459000000000000020.405000000000000030.3750.350999999999999980.303999999999999990.301999999999999990.269.5000000000000001E-2-6.5000000000000002E-2-3.5000000000000003E-2-8.3000000000000004E-2-0.12-0.222-0.19500000000000001-7.0999999999999994E-2-9.4E-2-5.2999999999999999E-21.9E-24.1000000000000002E-20.084.8000000000000001E-26.5000000000000002E-20.014.1000000000000002E-27.9000000000000001E-27.4999999999999997E-24.0000000000000001E-30.066.4000000000000001E-23.4000000000000002E-24.2999999999999997E-20.084.8000000000000001E-24.3999999999999997E-20.053.2000000000000001E-2

BoE (Expects a 30bps increase in rates)

Bank of England Rate3838338411384423847138503385333856238595386253865638686387163874838776388073883538868388983892938960389893902139051390803911339141391713920239233392623929439325393533938639416394473947839507395383956839598396293966039689397213975239780398133984339871399033993339962399944002540056400864011640147401784020740235402684029840329403594038940421404514048040512405434057440602406334066240694407244075340786408164084740877409074093940968409984102941060410894112141152411804121341243412744130541333413624139441425414534148641516415474157841607416394167041698417294175941789418204185141880419124194341971420044203442062420944212442153421854221642247422774230742338423694239842429424604248942521425514258042613426434267442704427344276642794428254285342886429164294742978430074303943069430984313143159431894322043251432814346543830441964.754.754.754.754.754.754.754.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.754.754.75555.255.255.255.255.55.55.755.755.755.755.755.55.55.255.255555554.5321.510.50.50.50.50.500.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.500.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.500.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5Bank of England Rate Expectation3838338411384423847138503385333856238595386253865638686387163874838776388073883538868388983892938960389893902139051390803911339141391713920239233392623929439325393533938639416394473947839507395383956839598396293966039689397213975239780398133984339871399033993339962399944002540056400864011640147401784020740235402684029840329403594038940421404514048040512405434057440602406334066240694407244075340786408164084740877409074093940968409984102941060410894112141152411804121341243412744130541333413624139441425414534148641516415474157841607416394167041698417294175941789418204185141880419124194341971420044203442062420944212442153421854221642247422774230742338423694239842429424604248942521425514258042613426434267442704427344276642794428254285342886429164294742978430074303943069430984313143159431894322043251432814346543830441960.50.50.50.75

Bank of China Rate (Decreasing rates )

Bank of China Rate3889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432514328188.58.58.58.5999.510101111.511.5121212.51313.514.5151515.51616.517.517.517.517.5171615.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.515.51616.516.516.51717171717171818.51919.52020.52121.521.521.521.521.521212120.520.520.520202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202019.519.518.518.518.518.5181817.517.517.517.51717171717171717171717171717171717171717171717171717161615.5

main CB bs

Major Central Bank Balance Sheets

US$ TrillionUS$ TrillionUS$ TrillionUS$ TrillionUS$ trillionChange

Federal Reserve Total AssetsECB Total AssetsJapan CB total AssetsBoE total AssetsPBoC total assetsFederal Reserve Total AssetsECB Total AssetsJapan CB total AssetsBoE total AssetsPBoC total assets

Dec-050.80.00.00.0Dec-050.850.000.000.100.40ERROR:#VALUE!

Jan-060.81.31.30.0Dec-060.871.660.970.120.450.97

Feb-060.81.31.30.0Dec-070.895.601.000.150.72580.0313.1034482759

Mar-060.81.31.20.0Dec-082.241.931.350.140.79640.36

Apr-060.81.31.10.0Dec-092.232.341.320.271.21-0.04

May-060.91.41.10.0Dec-102.423.091.590.391.690.27

Jun-060.81.41.00.0Dec-112.932.691.860.372.170.27

Jul-060.81.41.00.0Dec-122.912.301.830.512.59-0.0347.7272727273

Aug-060.91.41.00.0Dec-134.032.552.130.673.180.30

Sep-060.91.31.00.0Dec-144.503.102.510.634.020.38

Oct-060.91.31.00.0Dec-154.493.793.190.533.920.690.68

Nov-060.91.41.00.0Dec-164.454.364.070.623.940.570.89

Dec-060.91.71.00.0Dec-174.454.974.630.744.600.620.5525

Jan-070.91.60.90.0Dec-184.035.375.031.04

Feb-070.91.71.00.0Dec-193.435.375.431.34

Mar-070.91.71.00.0Dec-203.005.375.831.64404195525453.50.5254535

Apr-070.91.70.90.0474107616339.10.6163391

May-070.91.70.90.0566669736669.70.7366697

Jun-070.91.70.80.0

Jul-070.91.70.90.04.14270

Aug-070.91.71.00.045315368.55

Sep-070.91.81.00.0

Oct-070.91.80.90.0

Nov-070.91.81.00.03.551.87003.300.609

Dec-070.95.61.00.0

Jan-080.95.71.10.0

Feb-080.95.81.10.0

Mar-080.96.11.10.0

Apr-080.96.01.00.0

May-080.96.01.00.0

Jun-080.96.01.00.0

Jul-080.96.01.00.0

Aug-080.95.61.00.0

Sep-081.25.41.10.0

Oct-082.04.91.20.0

Nov-082.14.91.30.0

Dec-082.21.91.40.0

Jan-091.91.81.30.0

Feb-091.91.71.30.0

Mar-092.11.81.30.0

Apr-092.11.81.20.0

May-092.12.01.20.0

Jun-092.01.91.10.0

Jul-092.02.01.20.0

Aug-092.12.01.30.0

Sep-092.12.01.30.0

Oct-092.22.01.20.0

Nov-092.22.11.40.0

Dec-092.22.31.30.0

Jan-102.22.31.40.0

Feb-102.32.21.40.0

Mar-102.32.21.30.0

Apr-102.32.21.20.0

May-102.32.01.30.0

Jun-102.32.01.30.0

Jul-102.32.11.40.0

Aug-102.32.11.50.0

Sep-102.32.21.40.0

Oct-102.32.31.50.0

Nov-102.32.11.50.0

Dec-102.43.11.60.0

Jan-112.43.21.60.0

Feb-112.53.21.60.0

Mar-112.63.31.70.0

Apr-112.73.41.70.0

May-112.83.31.70.0

Jun-112.93.31.60.0

Jul-112.93.31.80.0

Aug-112.93.31.80.0

Sep-112.93.11.80.0

Oct-112.83.21.70.0

Nov-112.83.11.80.0

Dec-112.92.71.90.0

Jan-122.92.71.80.0

Feb-122.92.81.80.0

Mar-122.92.81.70.0

Apr-122.92.71.80.0

May-122.82.61.80.0

Jun-122.92.61.80.0

Jul-122.82.61.90.0

Aug-122.82.61.90.0

Sep-122.82.71.90.0

Oct-122.82.71.90.0

Nov-122.92.71.90.0

Dec-122.92.31.80.0

Jan-133.02.41.70.0

Feb-133.12.31.80.0

Mar-133.22.21.70.0

Apr-133.32.31.80.0

May-133.42.31.80.0

Jun-133.52.31.90.0

Jul-133.62.32.00.0

Aug-133.62.32.10.0

Sep-133.72.42.10.0

Oct-133.82.42.20.0

Nov-133.92.42.20.0

Dec-134.02.52.10.0

Jan-144.12.52.30.0

Feb-144.22.62.40.0

Mar-144.22.62.30.0

Apr-144.32.62.40.0

May-144.32.52.50.0

Jun-144.42.52.50.0

Jul-144.42.52.60.0

Aug-144.42.42.70.0

Sep-144.52.32.50.0

Oct-144.52.32.60.0

Nov-144.52.32.50.0

Dec-144.53.12.50.0

Jan-154.52.92.60.0

Feb-154.52.92.70.0

Mar-154.52.82.70.0

Apr-154.52.92.80.0

May-154.52.82.80.0

Jun-154.52.92.80.0

Jul-154.52.82.90.0

Aug-154.52.93.00.0

Sep-154.52.93.00.0

Oct-154.52.83.10.0

Nov-154.52.73.10.0

Dec-154.53.83.20.0

Jan-164.53.83.30.0

Feb-164.53.83.60.0

Mar-164.54.03.60.0

Apr-164.54.03.90.0

May-164.53.93.80.0

Jun-164.53.94.20.0

Jul-164.53.94.30.0

Aug-164.53.94.40.0

Sep-164.53.94.50.0

Oct-164.53.84.40.0

Nov-164.43.74.10.0

Dec-164.54.44.10.0

Jan-174.54.54.30.0

Feb-174.54.44.30.0

Mar-174.54.44.40.0

Apr-174.54.54.50.0

May-174.54.74.50.0

Jun-174.54.74.50.0

Jul-174.54.94.60.0

Aug-174.54.94.70.0

Sep-174.54.94.60.0

Oct-174.54.84.60.0

Nov-174.44.94.60.0

Dec-174.45.04.60.0

Jan-184.40.04.80.0

Feb-184.40.05.00.0

Mar-184.40.05.00.0

Apr-184.40.04.90.0

May-184.30.95.00.0

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

EM FII flows

EM Debt Inflow (US$ million)Till July 1st week

Source: Bloombergin US$ billion

Country200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182009-2017% Share

India(1,236)8832,4252,7051,16010,0508,5466,862(8,489)26,2527,560(6,459)22,970(6,241)688.8

Indonesia- 0- 0- 0- 01,0337,0232,7164,8524,58310,6337,6217,65312,062(467)587.4

Malaysia2,0801,8224,2263413,49010,1319,4328,7962,4752,5644,5971,851(621)(3,412)435.5

Philippines9609(2,837)2,5981,8431,603973(285)1,218(372)1,5538124402,54881.0

South Korea- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 027,74833,41137,24435,44131,94112,33132,42628,98921126.9

Thailand- 0- 0- 01568810,39824,19229,28114,0786,492(645)9,45510,6213,35710513.4

Brazil341(1,910)(23,239)(10,617)(13,546)(24,977)(26,417)(17,166)(27,375)(29,077)(12,341)30,4959,116(4,795)-111-14.2

Bulgaria- 0- 0(630)(575)13(119)(381)6807172,1402701,599(1,103)(515)40.5

Czech Republic1,6191,6072,3491,6535,4587,4171,1754,4134,664(1,011)9,4907,20912,934(8,521)526.6

Egypt2,799(499)789(761)(590)2,174(788)2193,451(2,531)(74)(823)6,1943,29570.9

Poland13,7143,844527(5,463)14,36621,48213,59116,263(228)4173,7246334,557(1,595)759.6

South Africa(742)2,753902(1,171)3,2727,3677,25911,3953,062(1,088)3961,8864,270(2,783)384.8

Turkey5,9346,067(3,219)(4,774)(1,996)10,90714,80916,1534,825392(7,009)6457,279300465.9

Russia10,545(9,130)10,06820,1784,905(4,281)4,738(16,638)4,30625,95825,64525,64625,64725,6489612.3

Mexico2,4492,2738,2946,0263,50022,49731,26345,67720,53222,228432(2,089)(479)75714418.4

Ukraine- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0880(850)123788782(42)(651)(48)35610.1

Chile9206,8506,7704,406(8,164)(4,005)131(1,415)(7,470)(8,778)(1,616)3,912(9,209)(1,703)-37-4.7

Israel(4,394)(1,212)(3,015)(155)2177,494(3,490)(6,875)(4,395)(1,402)(10,072)(2,957)(2,549)705-24-3.1

Net FII debt investment in emerging market34,98913,3583,40914,40615,64986,041114,647135,74753,98589,04161,43191,149134,50735,924782

NB: MSCI still classifies Korea and EM while IMF does not

EM Equity Inflow (US$ million)

Source: Bloombergin US$ billion

Country200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182009-2017% Share

India10,9018,33818,518(12,918)17,63929,321(512)24,54819,75416,1623,2742,9038,014(657)12127

Indonesia(1,732)1,9423,6001,7531,3842,3962,9561,712(1,806)3,766(1,580)1,259(2,960)(3,657)72

Philippines3547211,357(1,138)4241,2251,3312,5586781,256(1,194)831,095(1,274)72

S Korea(3,547)(12,642)(29,270)(36,641)24,68219,823(8,542)15,0844,8755,684(3,626)10,4808,268(3,693)7717

Sri Lanka- 0(1)72129(14)(231)(171)303166159(29)131187000

Taiwan23,97117,2402,205(15,484)15,6809,364(9,066)4,9139,18813,1903,34510,9565,736(10,121)6314

Thailand2,9492,0681,548(4,805)1,1362,689(164)2,503(6,211)(1,091)(4,372)2,240(796)(6,101)-4-1

Brazil- 0- 0- 0(13,332)11,887990(64)2,3694,8588,9955,7113,9494,223(2,174)4310

Mexico3,3532,805(482)(3,503)4,155373(6,566)9,877(943)4,8333,6019,518- 0- 0256

Bulgaria- 0- 0101(106)8(1)(46)4(19)(77)(9)(20)9764-0-0

Czech Republic(1,564)269(273)(1,097)(314)(232)(10)(147)100269183391855810

Hungary(13)874(5,009)(203)676(310)18573729(326)786(103)(154)720

Poland1,342(2,156)(458)5561,6097,3693,0643,6062,6613,0574,046(2,580)1,481637245

South Africa7,05510,2519,198(6,114)9,0674,851(2,580)(407)911,480696(8,604)(2,579)1,38020

Russia958(7,281)(14,791)15,561(3,006)5,95310,588(335)6,74713,8097,8777,8787,879- 05713

Turkey5,6691,9135,1046182,7833,523(950)6,3208882,578(2,384)8103,191(840)174

Net FII equity investment in emerging market49,69724,342(8,582)(76,723)87,79687,104(10,549)73,64441,05673,74416,32539,17534,468(26,350)443

Total EM FII flows (US$ bn)8538(5)(62)103173104209951637813016910

Balance Sheet

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2018/html/ecb.fst180717.en.html

Bloom TickerFARBAST IndexEBSHTOTA IndexBCJTOTL INDEXB14 TOTY Indexeurusd curncyJPYUSD CURNCY

In USD tn

Federal Reserve Total AssetsFederal Reserve Targeted Total AssetsECB Total Assets (Euros, in tn)Japan Total Assets (JPY, in tn)ECB Total Assets (USD, in tn)Japan Total Assets (USD, in tn)Bank of England (USD, in tn)

12/30/050.849

1/31/060.8301.06152.91.291.301.220.01

2/28/060.8421.06152.31.261.321.190.01

3/31/060.8351.06144.61.281.231.210.01

4/28/060.8461.06130.01.341.141.260.01

5/31/060.8541.06122.81.351.091.280.01

6/30/060.8461.06113.81.350.991.280.01

7/31/060.8431.06116.01.351.011.280.01

8/31/060.8521.06113.31.360.961.280.01

9/29/060.8511.06117.01.340.991.270.01

10/31/060.8541.06115.21.350.981.280.01

11/30/060.8571.06118.51.401.021.320.01

12/29/060.8711.26115.51.660.971.320.01

1/31/070.8671.26114.61.640.951.300.01

2/28/070.8781.26117.71.670.991.320.01

3/30/070.8711.26112.11.680.951.340.01

4/30/070.8801.26106.01.720.891.360.01

5/31/070.8781.26107.51.700.881.350.01

6/29/070.8661.26100.11.710.811.350.01

7/31/070.8651.26107.71.720.911.370.01

8/31/070.8741.26110.81.720.961.360.01

9/28/070.8911.26110.51.800.961.430.01

10/31/070.8841.26107.31.830.931.450.01

11/30/070.8801.26111.51.841.001.460.01

12/31/070.8913.84111.35.601.001.460.01

1/31/080.9013.84113.15.711.061.490.01

2/29/080.8943.84114.25.831.101.520.01

3/31/080.8943.84113.66.061.141.580.01

4/30/080.8893.84107.26.001.031.560.01

5/30/080.9053.84110.15.971.041.560.01

6/30/080.8933.84101.46.050.951.580.01

7/31/080.9193.84108.45.991.001.560.01

8/29/080.9113.84109.95.631.0101.470.01

9/30/081.2123.84112.65.411.061.410.01

10/31/081.9693.84116.84.891.191.270.01

11/28/082.1073.84121.54.871.271.270.01

12/31/082.2401.38122.81.931.351.400.01

1/30/091.9271.38119.51.771.331.280.01

2/27/091.9161.38122.21.751.251.270.01

3/31/092.0721.38124.31.831.261.330.01

4/30/092.0671.38114.81.831.161.320.01

5/29/092.0811.38118.81.951.251.420.01

6/30/092.0261.38109.81.941.141.400.01

7/31/092.0011.38114.71.971.211.430.01

8/31/092.0751.38117.21.981.261.430.01

9/30/092.1411.38116.92.021.301.460.01

10/30/092.1621.38111.42.031.241.470.01

11/30/092.2071.38117.32.071.361.500.01

12/31/092.2341.64122.52.341.321.430.01

1/29/102.2471.64122.42.271.361.390.01

2/26/102.2861.64126.82.231.431.360.01

3/31/102.3071.64122.22.211.311.350.01

4/30/102.3311.64114.22.171.221.330.01

5/31/102.3341.64121.02.011.331.230.01

6/30/102.3311.64113.22.001.281.220.01

7/30/102.3251.64117.42.131.361.310.01

8/31/102.3011.64123.02.071.461.270.01

9/30/102.2991.64121.12.231.451.360.01

10/29/102.2951.64121.42.281.511.390.01

11/30/102.3461.64127.02.121.521.300.01

12/31/102.4212.31128.73.091.591.340.01

1/31/112.4442.31128.03.161.561.370.01

2/28/112.5332.31130.13.191.591.380.01

3/31/112.6232.31142.93.271.721.420.01

4/29/112.6912.31134.63.421.661.480.01

5/31/112.7752.31135.13.321.661.440.01

6/30/112.8652.31129.63.351.611.450.01

7/29/112.8642.31134.53.321.751.440.01

8/31/112.8542.31141.53.321.851.440.01

9/30/112.8512.31138.43.091.801.340.01

10/31/112.8462.31133.03.201.701.390.01

11/30/112.8142.31143.23.101.851.340.01

12/30/112.9262.07143.02.691.861.300.01

1/31/122.9202.07136.92.711.801.310.01

2/29/122.9262.07144.22.761.781.330.01

3/30/122.8782.07139.62.771.691.330.01

4/30/122.8672.07141.22.741.771.320.01

5/31/122.8432.07142.82.561.821.240.01

6/29/122.8642.07143.62.631.801.270.01

7/31/122.8472.07145.52.551.861.230.01

8/31/122.8132.07150.02.611.911.260.01

9/28/122.8052.07150.42.671.931.290.01

10/31/122.8232.07153.72.691.931.300.01

11/30/122.8512.07156.42.691.901.300.01

12/31/122.9071.74158.42.301.831.320.01

1/31/133.0091.74159.82.371.741.360.01

2/28/133.0911.74163.52.271.771.310.01

3/29/133.2021.74164.32.231.741.280.01

4/30/133.3191.74174.72.291.791.320.01

5/31/133.3851.74184.32.261.831.300.01

6/28/133.4791.74187.12.271.891.300.01

7/31/133.5721.74196.82.322.011.330.01

8/30/133.6441.74205.72.302.101.320.01

9/30/133.7341.74208.22.362.121.350.01

10/31/133.8431.74215.52.372.191.360.01

11/29/133.9261.74224.12.372.191.360.01

12/31/134.0331.85224.22.552.131.370.01

1/31/144.1021.85232.22.502.281.350.01

2/28/144.1601.85240.52.562.361.380.01

3/31/144.2271.85240.82.552.331.380.01

4/30/144.2961.85246.22.572.411.390.01

5/30/144.3231.85254.02.532.501.360.01

6/30/144.3681.85257.82.542.541.370.01

7/31/144.4071.85269.02.482.621.340.01

8/29/144.4141.85275.92.432.651.310.01

9/30/144.4591.85276.22.342.521.260.01

10/31/144.4871.85286.82.322.551.250.01

11/28/144.4861.85297.42.312.511.250.01

12/31/144.4982.57300.23.102.511.210.01

1/30/154.5002.57311.22.902.651.130.01

2/27/154.4872.57320.42.872.681.120.01

3/31/154.4812.57322.62.752.691.070.01

4/30/154.4712.57332.82.882.791.120.01

5/29/154.4642.57343.12.822.761.100.01

6/30/154.4952.57345.42.862.821.110.01

7/31/154.4852.57354.32.822.861.100.01

8/31/154.4752.57361.52.882.981.120.01

9/30/154.4842.57365.42.873.051.120.01

10/30/154.4892.57373.62.823.101.100.01

11/30/154.4772.57381.32.713.101.060.01

12/31/154.4873.49383.13.793.191.090.01

1/29/164.4823.49396.43.783.271.080.01

2/29/164.4903.49403.83.793.581.090.01

3/31/164.4833.49405.43.973.601.140.01

4/29/164.4753.49414.44.003.901.150.01

5/31/164.4613.49425.73.883.841.110.01

6/30/164.4663.49432.83.884.191.110.01

7/29/164.4643.49443.13.904.341.120.01

8/31/164.4583.49453.03.894.381.120.01

9/30/164.4523.49457.23.924.511.120.01

10/31/164.4543.49463.43.834.421.100.01

11/30/164.4463.49471.13.704.121.060.01

12/30/164.4514.14476.54.364.071.050.01

1/31/174.4534.14482.04.474.271.080.01

2/28/174.4694.14487.94.384.331.060.01

3/31/174.4704.14490.14.414.401.070.01

4/28/174.4704.14497.74.514.461.090.01

5/31/174.4604.14500.84.664.521.120.01

6/30/174.4634.14502.14.734.471.140.01

7/31/174.4654.14505.64.904.591.180.01

8/31/174.4524.14511.64.934.651.190.01

9/29/174.4564.14513.44.894.561.180.01

10/31/174.4614.14518.04.824.561.160.01

11/30/174.4394.14521.94.934.641.190.01

12/29/174.4494.14521.44.974.6271.200.01

1/31/184.419526.74.821.240.01

2/28/184.393533.25.001.220.01

3/30/184.392528.54.971.230.01

4/30/184.373535.14.891.210.01

5/31/184.3284.3275540.80.924.971.170.01

6/30/184.2980.65

7/31/184.258

8/31/184.218

9/30/184.178

10/31/184.128

11/30/184.078

12/31/184.028-0.421

1/31/193.978

2/28/193.928

3/31/193.878

4/30/193.828

5/31/193.778

6/30/193.728

7/31/193.678

8/31/193.628

9/30/193.578

10/31/193.528

11/30/193.478

12/31/193.428-0.600

1/31/203.378

2/29/203.328

3/31/203.278

4/30/203.228

5/31/203.178

6/30/203.128

7/31/203.078

8/31/203.028

9/30/202.978

10/31/202.928

11/30/202.878

Federal Reserve Total Assets

3871638748387763880738835388683889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432514328143312433434337343404434344346543496435244355543585436164364643677437084373843769437994383043861438904392143951439824401244043440744410444135441650.848909000000000020.830099999999999950.842380000000000020.834635000000000020.846025999999999940.853554000000000030.845678999999999960.842511000000000010.852299000000000030.851033000000000040.853681000000000020.857497999999999980.871161999999999990.866558999999999970.878205000000000010.870655999999999990.880456000000000020.878220.865948999999999970.864700000000000020.873588999999999950.890670999999999990.884044000000000050.879893000000000040.891158000000000010.900810.894294000000000030.894437000000000040.888720999999999980.904977000000000030.893195999999999990.919115000000000020.910542999999999991.2122991.9694442.10661500000000012.23985399999999981.92743700000000011.9164612.0718472.06713099999999982.08064200000000012.02582800000000022.0009662.07524299999999992.1413022.16183399999999982.2065912.23430900000000012.24706500000000012.28628199999999992.30720100000000012.33051699999999992.33408099999999992.33090099999999992.32536200000000022.30109999999999992.2987812.2954772.34609699999999992.4206742.44363699999999982.53335899999999992.62261599999999982.69113300000000022.7751372.8654082.86380599999999992.85400000000000012.85102799999999992.8457772.81431299999999982.92619499999999992.9196672.92578799999999982.87820000000000012.86667499999999992.84277699999999992.86360500000000022.84680499999999982.81300099999999992.8045672.8231372.8513622.90730000000000023.00870399999999983.09059999999999983.20225600000000023.31864900000000023.38512799999999993.4786723.57179700000000013.64445599999999993.73401799999999983.84339599999999983.92587600000000014.03257499999999964.10213800000000014.15997199999999984.22697099999999984.2960494.3226544.36834800000000014.40663699999999994.41373600000000014.45905000000000044.48675400000000044.48593099999999994.49765999999999984.50006400000000014.48672499999999994.48060300000000034.47149899999999974.46398100000000044.49505499999999984.48547999999999994.47510500000000014.48411100000000044.48933900000000024.47708800000000024.48658700000000014.48234900000000014.48979600000000014.48284000000000044.47466499999999994.46111099999999984.46648200000000014.46449799999999994.45790699999999964.45200200000000024.4543264.4463074.45145099999999964.45283799999999994.46870200000000044.46961799999999964.47014200000000014.45991400000000044.46334699999999974.46528399999999964.45235999999999974.45566100000000014.46111699999999984.43859199999999994.44868000000000044.4192254.39340099999999994.39219799999999964.37288600000000034.3275189999999997Federal Reserve Targeted Total Assets

2.9

3871638748387763880738835388683889838929389603898939021390513908039113391413917139202392333926239294393253935339386394163944739478395073953839568395983962939660396893972139752397803981339843398713990339933399623999440025400564008640116401474017840207402354026840298403294035940389404214045140480405124054340574406024063340662406944072440753407864081640847408774090740939409684099841029410604108941121411524118041213412434127441305413334136241394414254145341486415164154741578416074163941670416984172941759417894182041851418804191241943419714200442034420624209442124421534218542216422474227742307423384236942398424294246042489425214255142580426134264342674427044273442766427944282542853428864291642947429784300743039430694309843131431594318943220432514328143312433434337343404434344346543496435244355543585436164364643677437084373843769437994383043861438904392143951439824401244043440744410444135441654.32751899999999974.29751899999999944.25751899999999944.21751899999999944.17751899999999934.12751899999999954.07751899999999974.02751899999999983.9775193.92751900000000023.87751900000000043.82751900000000063.77751900000000073.72751900000000093.67751900000000113.62751900000000133.57751900000000143.52751900000000163.47751900000000183.4275190000000023.37751900000000223.32751900000000233.27751900000000253.22751900000000273.17751900000000293.1275190000000033.07751900000000323.02751900000000342.97751900000000362.92751900000000382.8775190000000039

ECB Total Assets (Euros, in tn)3874838776388073883538868388983892938960389893902139051390803911339141391713920239233392623929439325393533938639416394473947839507395383956839598396293966039689397213975239780398133984339871399033993339962399944002540056400864011640147401784020740235402684029840329403594038940421404514048040512405434057440602406334066240694407244075340786408164084740877409074093940968409984102941060410894112141152411804121341243412744130541333413624139441425414534148641516415474157841607416394167041698417294175941789418204185141880419124194341971420044203442062420944212442153421854221642247422774230742338423694239842429424604248942521425514258042613426434267442704427344276642794428254285342886429164294742978430074303943069430981.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.05766454999999991.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282541.260282543.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999993.83903223999999991.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.379979641.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230141.635230142.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.308712852.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000012.07292412000000011.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.74175276000000021.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906361.852906362.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000022.56645379000000023.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999983.48984398999999984.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.14162431000000014.1416243100000001

Japan Total Assets (JPY, in tn)3874838776388073883538868388983892938960389893902139051390803911339141391713920239233392623929439325393533938639416394473947839507395383956839598396293966039689397213975239780398133984339871399033993339962399944002540056400864011640147401784020740235402684029840329403594038940421404514048040512405434057440602406334066240694407244075340786408164084740877409074093940968409984102941060410894112141152411804121341243412744130541333413624139441425414534148641516415474157841607416394167041698417294175941789418204185141880419124194341971420044203442062420944212442153421854221642247422774230742338423694239842429424604248942521425514258042613426434267442704427344276642794428254285342886429164294742978430074303943069430984313143159431894322043251152.86560000000003152.34779999999998144.59660000000002129.97989999999996122.79360000000001113.83280000000001115.9675113.26719999999999117.0299115.1994118.54149999999998115.5437114.6223117.69480000000001112.12089999999999106.00540000000001107.51049999999999100.0712107.71710000000002110.79170000000001110.5324107.34730000000002111.4939111.28449999999998113.06039999999999114.24779999999998113.5728107.2225110.12729999999999101.42108.36519999999999109.88709999999999112.58729999999998116.80289999999998121.52629999999999122.7709119.51350000000001122.173124.3171114.7983118.79730000000002109.84289999999999114.7349117.18429999999999116.92919999999999111.39999999999999117.29650000000001122.5337122.4342126.76750000000001122.20420000000001114.20129999999999120.98569999999999113.2337117.37430000000001123.0415121.0534121.41709999999999127.0457128.7105127.99960000000002130.11819999999997142.92499999999998134.62130000000002135.12009999999998129.58449999999999134.47370000000001141.483138.38729999999998132.98579999999998143.20570000000001143.02190000000002136.90649999999999144.24440000000001139.6482141.20650000000001142.80079999999998143.6266145.49539999999999149.96720000000005150.392153.73159999999999156.35789999999997158.36270000000005159.7903163.5325164.31229999999999174.69139999999999184.28620000000001187.0684196.75820000000002205.69189999999998208.18940000000001215.51420000000002224.08879999999999224.18979999999999232.1781240.4502240.7841246.1764253.97310000000002257.76129999999995268.96770000000004275.89559999999994276.18286.8381297.37479999999999300.21170000000001311.17309999999998320.44190000000003322.5677332.81859999999995343.14030000000002345.43959999999998354.29410000000001361.45909999999998365.39270000000005373.55369999999999381.2543383.10759999999999396.44990000000001403.79090000000002405.44379999999995414.41640000000001425.66969999999998432.7586443.08480000000003452.9803457.22539999999998463.3922471.13100000000003476.49799999999993481.98179999999996487.90110000000004490.11759999999992497.74640000000005500.80079999999992502.10840000000002505.56029999999998511.58450000000005513.39850000000001518.0462521.86521.4162526.70359999999994533.17920000000004528.52009999999984535.05110000000002540.80370000000005

Sheet1

Total AssetsTotal Assets

in pounds In USD

DateBank of EnglandDateBank of England

12/31/14403,08912/31/7111,913

12/31/13404,22812/31/729,960

12/31/12311,45912/31/7312,737

12/31/11241,64212/31/7415,406

12/31/10247,28012/31/7514,053

12/31/09168,40412/31/7613,059

12/31/0897,61612/31/7715,635

12/31/0776,99112/31/7820,423

12/31/0661,79912/31/7922,613

12/31/0555,71412/31/8026,434

12/31/0448,56512/31/8123,194

12/31/0346,71212/31/8220,550

12/31/0241,35212/31/8323,167

12/31/0137,85012/31/8416,577

12/31/0080,75612/31/8528,326

12/31/99101,95612/31/8628,492

12/31/9832,68112/31/8732,545

12/31/9726,91712/31/8830,586

12/31/9625,18112/31/8927,977

12/31/9524,19512/31/9036,050

12/31/9426,35112/31/9136,842

12/31/9324,56912/31/9230,633

12/31/9220,28012/31/9336,301

12/31/9119,69412/31/9441,234

12/31/9018,67912/31/9537,493

12/31/8917,35012/31/9643,193

12/31/8816,88912/31/9744,359

12/31/8717,25612/31/9854,234

12/31/8619,21912/31/99164,761

12/31/8519,60312/31/00120,625

12/31/8414,31512/31/0155,041

12/31/8315,96112/31/0266,597

12/31/8212,70112/31/0383,306

12/31/8112,11212/31/0493,041

12/31/8011,06512/31/0595,756

12/31/7910,19312/31/06119,661

12/31/7810,00412/31/07152,650

12/31/778,15612/31/08142,275

12/31/767,67712/31/09271,939

12/31/756,94512/31/10385,534

12/31/746,56412/31/11374,763

12/31/735,48412/31/12505,872

12/31/724,24212/31/13669,644

12/31/714,66812/31/14628,053

12/31/703,887

12/31/693,871

12/31/683,742

12/31/673,533

12/31/663,295

12/31/653,043

12/31/642,831

Sheet2

Yuan

DateChina Total Assets (In Yuan)DateChina Total Assets (In USD)

12/31/1729950.610%12/31/04344.95

12/31/1627323.088%12/31/05404.13-10%

12/31/1525416.82%12/31/06448.62-37%

12/31/1424972.9730%12/31/07717.75-10%

12/31/1319265.8719%12/31/08793.11-35%

12/31/1216143.0418%12/31/091212.41-28%

12/31/1113670.2523%12/31/101691.28-22%

12/31/1011145.0135%12/31/112169.98-16%

12/31/098277.2453%12/31/122589.1-19%

12/31/085413.383%12/31/133183.18-21%

12/31/075237.5250%12/31/144023.13%

12/31/063501.537%12/31/153917.81-0%

12/31/053261.4214%12/31/163937.21-14%

12/31/04285512/31/174603.04ERROR:#DIV/0!

China Total Assets (In Yuan)431004273542369420044163941274409084054340178398133944739082387173835229950.627323.0825416.79999999999924972.9719265.8716143.0413670.2511145.018277.245413.385237.52000000000043501.533261.422855

China Total Assets (In USD)3835238717390823944739813401784054340908412744163942004423694273543100344.95404.13448.62717.75793.111212.41000000000011691.282169.982589.13183.184023.13917.813937.214603.04

BoE

BoE Balance-sheethttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-central-banks-balance-sheet-bank-of-england-bank-return-data

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxSTxTBxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=2005&TD=19&TM=Jul&TY=2018&FNY=&CSVF=TT&html.x=171&html.y=36&C=IS2&C=IS5&C=ONV&C=ONR&C=ONT&C=ONS&C=ONU&Filter=Nhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/ccbs/resources/understanding-the-central-bank-balance-sheet

GBP millions

Bank of England | Databaseshort term repolong term repoContingent term repo facilitySterling denominated bond holdingsLoan for Asset Purchase FacilityForeign Currency Reserve Assets

LIABILITYASSET

DateWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling notes in circulation total (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [a] [b] RPWB55AWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling reserve balance liabilities (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [a] RPWB56AWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank foreign currency public securities issued total (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [a] RPWB59AWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling short-term market operations with Bank of England counterparties (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [a] RPWB66AWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling long-term operations with Bank of England counterparties (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [a] RPWB69AWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling short-term market operations with Bank of England counterparties (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted RPWB9R6Weekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling indexed long-term repos with Bank of England counterparties (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [c] RPWZ4TJWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling contingent term repo facility with Bank of England counterparties (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [c] RPWZ4TKWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling denominated bond holdings total (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [c] RPWZ4TLWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank sterling loan to Asset Purchase Facility total (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [c] RPWZ4TMWeekly amounts outstanding of Central Bank all foreign currency reserve assets total (in sterling millions) not seasonally adjusted [c] RPWZ4TNTotal AssetsTota Liabilities

5-Jan-0537896n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




2-Feb-0535237n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




2-Mar-0535175n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!





6-Apr-0535823n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




4-May-0536227n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




1-Jun-0536543n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!





6-Jul-0536078n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




3-Aug-0536682n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!





7-Sep-0536833n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




5-Oct-0536632n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




2-Nov-0536777n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!





7-Dec-0538236n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VALUE!ERROR:#VALUE!




4-Jan-0639262n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aERROR:#VA

equity and debt outlook - sbi funds pms outlook_oct 2018.pdf · • q1 fy19 gdp accelerated to 8.2%...

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