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  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    Equity Market Outlook

    October 2015

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    Equity market suffered losses across the globe

    Performance during the month of September (local currency

    returns)

    Performance in 2015 ytd (local currency returns)

    Nifty (-0.3%) managed to outperform MSCI EM index.

    Barring Korea and Taiwan, all the market delivered negative

    return in the month

    France/Korea happen to be the best performing

    markets globally YTD.

    Indonesia/Taiwan/HK amongst the laggards.

    Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research

    -8-7

    -6 -6

    -5 -5 -5 -4 -4

    -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3

    -1

    0

    0

    1

    -9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101

    2

    JP

    PKIST

    I

    ESI

    E

    SSI

    I

    SIE

    -E

    FSE

    SRI

    L

    K

    BR

    ZI

    SIE

    ILI

    I

    E

    S

    J

    E

    IFT

    TI KR

    E

    -19-17

    -15-12-11

    -10-9 -8 -7

    -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0

    1 2

    5

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    I

    ESI

    SIE

    SIE

    -E T

    I SE

    I

    J

    E

    S

    ILI

    I

    E

    IFT

    I

    SRI

    L

    K

    EJ S

    SI

    IST

    E

    F

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    Performance of Major Indices in Indian market

    Performance during the month of September Performance in 2015 ytd

    Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research

    -8-6

    -3 -3 -2

    -1 -1 0 0 0 0

    0 0 1

    4

    11

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    ET

    L

    P

    PS T

    IL

    P

    R

    BSE10

    SE

    SE

    F

    SE

    IFT

    B

    KE

    S

    LL

    P

    I

    P I

    ELESTT

    -36

    -18

    -12 -9 -8

    -7 -5 -4 -3

    -2 -2 0

    1

    7 10

    22

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    ET

    L S

    IL

    RELESTT

    B

    KE T

    SE

    SE

    IFT

    SE

    PBSE50

    S

    LL F II

    P

    R

    Nifty (-0.3%), Sensex (-0.5%), BSE100 (-0.5%) continued to deliver negative returns in September

    Midcap Index (0.6%) and Small Cap index (0.5%) deliveredmarginal out-performance

    Banking and Real estate stocks rallied during the month on the back of monetary policy easing, while IT stocks were positively

    impacted by rupee depreciation

    For the year so far, FMCG, IT and Pharma continue to be the outperformers

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    On the growth front, both agriculture and manufacturingsectors have their own challenges; but with growthsupportive fiscal and monetary policy, recovery is likely to

    sustain

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    Challenges in agricul ture sector

    Monsoon defic it in 2015 at 14% vs. 12% in 2014

    Source: IMD, pib.nic.in, SBIMF Research

    Sowing in Kharif Season increased by 1.3%

    Total sown area as on 1st OctoberCrop Area sown in

    2015-16

    Area sown in

    2014-15 % increase in

    2015-16Rice 375.93 375.21

    0.2

    Pulses 114.58 102.5611.7

    Coarse Cereals 183.16 178.442.6

    Oilseeds 184.64 178.243.6

    Sugarcane 48.84 48.740.2

    Jute & Mesta 7.8 8.13-4.1

    Cotton 116.41 126.55-8.0

    Total 1031.37 1017.861.3

    Cumulative rainfall in 2015 was 14% deficient vs. 12% shortfall last year.

    The timely onset of monsoon nevertheless, boosted sowing in kharif season (up 1.2%)

    As per first advance estimate, the agriculture ministry expects 3.1% growth in food grains output In kharif season

    On the contrary, poor reservoir storage (22% below 5 year average) could impact the winter crops adversely.

    Growth challenges in agriculture sector and consequently in agriculture income will once again weigh down the rural

    consumption demand

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    Manufacturing activi ty sluggish due to muted demand

    Rural consumption indicated by 2&3 wheeler sales is low,

    while urban demand (captured by car sales) is holding up

    Muted consumpt ion and investment demand leading to

    persistent under-utilization o f manufacturing capacity

    Source: IMD, CSO, MOSL, PRS legislative, SBIMF Research

    Manufacturing activity is lacking a sustained vibrancy. While consumption demand seems to be holding up other than in rural

    areas, outlook for investment demand remains lackluster

    This slack is evident in muted IIP and core industries growth, persistent under-utilization of capacity and still high stress on

    banksbalance sheet

    The prospects for exports too appear muted in the view of deterioration in external trading environment.

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    Aug-10

    Nov-10

    Feb-11

    May-11

    Aug-11

    Nov-11

    Feb-12

    May-12

    Aug-12

    Nov-12

    Feb-13

    May-13

    Aug-13

    Nov-13

    Feb-14

    May-14

    Aug-14

    Nov-14

    Feb-15

    May-15

    Aug-15

    Passenger Cars and Vans 2 & 3 wheelers

    % y-o-y 3mma

    65

    67

    69

    71

    73

    75

    77

    7981

    83

    85

    Jun-09

    Oct-09

    Feb-10

    Jun-10

    Oct-10

    Feb-11

    Jun-11

    Oct-11

    Feb-12

    Jun-12

    Oct-12

    Feb-13

    Jun-13

    Oct-13

    Feb-14

    Jun-14

    Oct-14

    Feb-15

    Jun-15

    Capacity utilisation in Manufacturing (%)

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    The bright spots

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    Both fiscal & monetary policy supportive of growth, recovery to sustain

    Tax and non-tax revenue holds s trong year to date

    Page 8Source: cga.nic.in, RBI, SBIMF Research

    helping government to front-load capital spending

    to crowd i n private investment

    35.333.4

    31.8

    34.5 34.2

    38.1

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Capital Spending (cumulative as % of BE)

    Cumulative between April-August23.5 23.3 23.0 21.7

    29.7

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Revenue receipts (as % BE)

    Cumulative between April- August

    Buoyed by strong growth in tax and non-tax revenue,

    government front loaded its capex spending plans

    Cumulative Apr-Aug fiscal deficit at 66% of BE (vs. 75%

    last year) remains one of the lowest in 4 years.

    This could help government achieve its fiscal deficit

    target without compromising the spending plans, even

    though disinvestment trends remain weak.

    With both fiscal (improving expenditure mix) and

    monetary policy (cumulative 125bps easing so far)

    turning supportive of growth, recovery is likely to sustain

    -5.00

    -4.00

    -3.00

    -2.00

    -1.00

    0.00

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.50

    6.75

    7.00

    7.25

    7.50

    7.75

    8.00

    8.25

    8.50

    8.75

    Jan-12

    Apr-12

    Jul-12

    Oct-12

    Jan-13

    Apr-13

    Jul-13

    Oct-13

    Jan-14

    Apr-14

    Jul-14

    Oct-14

    Jan-15

    Apr-15

    Jul-15

    Real rate (%), RHS Repo rate (%)-LHS

    With inflation staying tamed, RBI shifted focus to lift growth

    and delivered 50bps cu t in September

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    Low inflation and softer commodity pr ices improving margin for companies

    Source: CMIE Economic Outlook, Bloomberg, PPAC, SBIMF Research

    Indian crude basket is as low as 46.1 Rs/barrel from the highs o f 109-110 last year

    Lower inflation has started to feed in the form of l ower raw-

    material cost

    Commodity prices have been declining for a year now

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Apr-05

    Oct-05

    Apr-06

    Oct-06

    Apr-07

    Oct-07

    Apr-08

    Oct-08

    Apr-09

    Oct-09

    Apr-10

    Oct-10

    Apr-11

    Oct-11

    Apr-12

    Oct-12

    Apr-13

    Oct-13

    Apr-14

    Oct-14

    Apr-15

    WPI: Headline WPI: Core

    % y-o-y

    90

    110

    130

    150170

    190

    210

    230

    Jan-05

    Aug-05

    Mar-06

    Oct-06

    May-07

    Dec-07

    Jul-08

    Feb-09

    Sep-09

    Apr-10

    Nov-10

    Jun-11

    Jan-12

    Aug-12

    Mar-13

    Oct-13

    May-14

    Dec-14

    Jul-15

    CRB Food Index CRB Commodity Index

    Jan 2010=100

    109.1

    47.5

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    70.00

    80.00

    90.00

    100.00

    110.00

    120.00

    130.00

    Jan-11

    Apr-11

    Jul-11

    Oct-11

    Jan-12

    Apr-12

    Jul-12

    Oct-12

    Jan-13

    Apr-13

    Jul-13

    Oct-13

    Jan-14

    Apr-14

    Jul-14

    Oct-14

    Jan-15

    Apr-15

    Jul-15

    Crude Oil Price Indian Basket (Average Price)

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    Stability in macro conditions when most global markets w itnessing fragility

    Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP Current Account Balance

    CPI Inflati on FX reserves, in USD Bn

    Page 10

    -8.0

    -7.0

    -6.0

    -5.0-4.0

    -3.0

    -2.0

    -1.0

    0.0

    -35

    -30

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    Jun-09

    Nov-09

    Apr-10

    Sep-10

    Feb-11

    Jul-11

    Dec-11

    May-12

    Oct-12

    Mar-13

    Aug-13

    Jan-14

    Jun-14

    Nov-14

    USD bn Annualized, % of GDP

    Source: RBI, CSO, CMIE, SBIMF Research

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    Jan-12

    Apr-12

    Jul-12

    Oct-12

    Jan-13

    Apr-13

    Jul-13

    Oct-13

    Jan-14

    Apr-14

    Jul-14

    Oct-14

    Jan-15

    Apr-15

    Jul-15

    CPI % y-o-y

    CPI target range 4% + 2%

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    260

    270

    280

    290

    300

    310

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    Jan-10

    Apr-10

    Jul-10

    Oct-10

    Jan-11

    Apr-11

    Jul-11

    Oct-11

    Jan-12

    Apr-12

    Jul-12

    Oct-12

    Jan-13

    Apr-13

    Jul-13

    Oct-13

    Jan-14

    Apr-14

    Jul-14

    Oct-14

    Jan-15

    Apr-15

    Jul-15

    FX reserves (USD bn)- LHS Import cover (in months RHS)

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    Exit of foreign investors was offset by increased domestic investment

    Source: NSDL, Antique SBIMF Research

    FIIs were sellers of Indian equi ties in SeptemberDomestic MFs, on other hand, have been net buyers fo r 17

    months running

    Domestic insurance sector also bought into t he equities market

    -4.00

    -3.00

    -2.00

    -1.00

    0.00

    1.002.00

    3.00

    4.00

    Dec-99

    Dec-00

    Dec-01

    Dec-02

    Dec-03

    Dec-04

    Dec-05

    Dec-06

    Dec-07

    Dec-08

    Dec-09

    Dec-10

    Dec-11

    Dec-12

    Dec-13

    Dec-14

    Dom MF Net Investments (Trailling 3M in USD Bn)

    -10000

    -8000

    -6000

    -4000

    -2000

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    Feb-13

    Apr-13

    Jun-13

    Aug-13

    Oct-13

    Dec-13

    Feb-14

    Apr-14

    Jun-14

    Aug-14

    Oct-14

    Dec-14

    Feb-15

    Apr-15

    Jun-15

    Aug-15

    Equity Investment Debt Investment

    USD mn

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    Jan-10

    May-10

    Oct-10

    Feb-11

    Jun-11

    Oct-11

    Feb-12

    Jun-12

    Oct-12

    Feb-13

    Jun-13

    Oct-13

    Feb-14

    Jun-14

    Oct-14

    Feb-15

    Jun-15

    Insurance (Trailing 3M in USD Bn)

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    Market outlook

    Equity markets witnessed higher volatility in September but Sensex

    closed almost unchanged towards the month-end.

    Start of the month witnessed jitters of continued global growth

    worries ahead of the US Fed policy decision, while the latter halfwas spurred by RBIs surprise rate action.

    FIIs continued to be net sellers once again albeit the pace of selling

    came off vis--vis that in August.

    There exist challenges in terms of getting the economy back on

    track. Real estate sector and corporate balance sheets are strained.

    Banks balance sheets are stressed with NPAs from previous cycle

    excesses and await recapitalisation. The monsoon too has been

    below average, staring at a sizeable deficit. This has a

    counterbalance from better balance sheets of households, steady

    flow of FDI investments and an initial trickle from government

    spending. The government needs to push its envelope further in

    parliament to get GST reform on-track.

    In the short term, markets should remain volatile on the back of local

    issues like Bihar elections, monsoon progression, result season

    performance; and global developments in US Fed action, China and

    resultant fund flows.

    This intermittent volatility is an ideal opportunity for a long terminvestor to benefit both for long term capital appreciation in equities

    and playing the duration game in the debt markets. We remain well

    positioned to offer both the opportunities across our portfolio

    strategies.

    Market valuations in line with i ts long period average

    Source: Bloomberg, SBIMF Research

    7

    9

    11

    13

    15

    17

    19

    21

    23

    25

    Oct-05

    May-06

    Dec-06

    Jul-07

    Feb-08

    Sep-08

    Apr-09

    Nov-09

    Jun-10

    Jan-11

    Aug-11

    Mar-12

    Oct-12

    May-13

    Dec-13

    Jul-14

    Feb-15

    Sep-15

    Sensex 1Y fwd PE

    +1 SD

    -1 SD

    Mean

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    Fund Philosophy

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    SBI Magnum Balanced Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    Invests in a mix of equity & debt securities. Exposure in equity is atleast 50% and exposure in debt & money market securities can be upto

    50%. Equity portion is invested in a diversified portfolio of large & mid caps.

    Debt portion is invested in investment grade securities with active duration management

    Fund Strategy

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    To provide investors long term capital appreciation along with the liquidity of an open-ended scheme by investing in a mix of debt and equity.

    The scheme will invest in a diversified portfolio of equities of high growth companies and balance the risk through investing the rest in a

    relatively safe portfolio of debt.

    Services, 6

    Pharma, 3

    Metals, 3 Media &

    Entertainme

    nt, 1

    IT, 8

    Industrials, 7

    Financials,

    14

    Energy, 5

    Consumer

    goods, 6

    Chemicals, 1

    Automobile,

    14

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    SBI Magnum Equity Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    Pure large cap fund, large caps defined as the top 100 companies in terms of market capitalization rank. Relatively low on risk; target the

    15th to the 45th percentile of the large cap peer set. Run on active tracking error constraints with emphasis to benchmark coverage.

    Medium term (1 year) investment perspective

    Fund Strategy

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    Top over-weights are Financials (4.9%) and Industrials (1.7%) and the under-weights, Consumer Staples and Materials. Financials is a pro-

    cyclical play while Industrials is an allocation cum bottom-up selection call. The top three positive active positions are SBI, BPCL and Tata

    Motors DVR; negative active weights are HDFC and ITC. We are 5% o/w Financials which is distributed equally by u/ws on Cyclicals and

    Defensives. Index coverage stands at 57%.

    AUTOMOBILE-14

    ENERGY-

    10

    FINANCIAL

    SERVICES- 36

    IT-

    17

    PHARMA-

    7

    Others-

    15

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    SBI Magnum Global Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    Pre-dominantly mid cap. Up to 25% flexibility into large caps for liquidity purposes; these, however, would be largely at the lower

    end of the large cap curve. Three pillar investment philosophy Competitive Edge (as defined objectively by market share, gross

    margins or brand franchise), Consistent Return on Equity of 20% over time and minimum prospective Growth of 20%; stock selection

    within this space driven by valuations and relative risk. Investment perspective long term, 3 years plus

    Fund Strategy

    The portfolio is fairly diversified across the top holdings as a conscious part of portfolio strategy. The top 5 stocks account for 18% of

    the fund.

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    AUTOMOBILE,

    13

    CONSUMER

    GOODS, 20

    FINANCIAL

    SERVICES, 17

    INDUSTRIAL

    MANUFACTURI

    NG, 17

    SERVICES, 8

    OTHERS, 26

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    SBI Magnum Emerging Business Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    High risk, high return philosophy based on concentrated holdings of high conviction ideas. Theoretically, market cap agnostic but

    tends to be biased towards small-and-mid caps due to the high return bias. Sector and benchmark agnostic. Investment perspective

    long term, 3 years plus

    Fund Strategy

    The fund runs a concentrated strategy. While technical risk in the portfolio (benchmark risk, market cap risk and sector risk) is and will

    remain high, the portfolio, from a business perspective, is largely defensive. The benchmark agnostic nature also makes it inconsistent in

    the short term. The top three holdings are P&G Hygiene, HDFC Bank and SCUF.

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    AUTOMOBILE, 8

    CONSUMER

    GOODS, 19

    FINANCIALSERVICES, 17

    INDUSTRIAL

    MANUFACTURING

    , 13

    SERVICES, 13

    OTHERS, 30

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    SBI Magnum Taxgain Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    The fund is being managed with a very long term orientation and an objective to generate superior returns through bottom up stock

    picking.

    Fund Strategy

    The fund continues to outperform the benchmark by a good margin. The fund is run with a 75:25 mix between large cap and mid/

    small cap stock. In terms of sectors, The fund currently has large overweight on Capital goods and underweight on metals.

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    AUTOMOBILE,

    10

    ENERGY, 10

    FINANCIAL

    SERVICES, 26

    IT, 14

    PHARMA, 8

    SERVICES, 8

    CONSTRUCTION

    , 6

    INDUSTRIAL

    MANUFACTURING, 4

    CEMENT

    , 5

    OTHERS,

    8

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    SBI Magnum Multicap Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    Diversified Multicap equity fund focused on generating returns through stock selection rather than sector allocation; sector weights

    being contained around benchmark levels. Large caps would be limited at a minimum level of 50%

    Fund Strategy

    The fund runs a near-neutral (+/-2%) strategy on sector allocation and attempts to derive alpha from stock selection based

    on recommendations from the analyst team. The fund is presently 62:38 large and mid-and-small-cap. The top active weights are

    SBI, Britannia and Tech Mahindra on the large cap side and JK Tyre, DCB and Techno Electric on the mid and small cap side.

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    AUTOMOBILE,

    7CONSTRUCTION,

    6

    CONSUMER

    GOODS, 8

    ENERGY, 9

    FINANCIAL

    SERVICES, 26

    IT, 12

    PHARMA, 8

    OTHERS, 23

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    SBI Magnum Midcap Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    Mid and small cap focused fund invests largely in companies outside of Top 100 companies by Market Cap based on bottom-upinvesting.

    Fund Strategy

    The fund is overweight on Pharma, Industrials, Materials, Staples and Consumer Discretionary and is underweight on Financials, IT

    and Energy.

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    CEMENT

    ,6CONSUMER

    GOODS, 8

    FERTILISERS &

    PESTICIDES, 9

    FINANCIALSERVICES, 19

    INDUSTRIAL

    MANUFACTURING,

    19

    PHARMA, 13

    TEXTILES, 5

    OTHERS, 22

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    SBI Blue Chip Fund

    Source: SBIMF Research.

    Fund Philosophy & Positioning

    A large cap fund (large caps defined as the top 100 companies in terms of market capitalization rank) with a flexibility to invest up to

    20% in midcap stocks. Relatively higher risk than pure large cap; focus to generate alpha by investing in high conviction mid-cap

    stocks, when valuation gap between large cap and mid-caps is significant. Medium term (1-2 year) investment perspective for large

    cap exposure and 3 years plus perspective for mid-cap exposure.

    Fund Strategy

    Growth

    Blend

    Value

    Large

    Mid

    small

    Our top over-weight is Consumer Discretionary (6.63%), Industrials (3.36%), Pharma (1.23%) and Telecom (1.2%) and under-weight is

    primarily Financials (3.98%), Utilities (3.7%), Energy (3.6%), IT (1.90%), Staples (0.96%) and Materials (0.96%).

    AUTOMOBILE,

    12

    CEMENT

    , 5

    CONSUMER

    GOODS, 10

    FINANCIAL

    SERVICES, 26INDUSTRIAL

    MANUFACTURING,

    10

    IT, 12

    PHARMA, 7

    OTHERS, 18

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    Thank you

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    Disclaimer

    This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy anymutual fund units/securities. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for thedevelopment or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investmentadvice to any party. All opinions and estimates included here constitute our view as of this date and aresubject to change without notice. Neither SBI Funds Management Private Limited, nor any personconnected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. The recipient of thismaterial should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice.

    Mutual Funds investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documentscarefully.

    Asset Management Company:SBI Funds Management Private Limited (A joint venture with SBI andAMUNDI). Trustee Company:SBI Mutual Fund Trustee Company Private Limited.

  • 7/23/2019 Equity Market Outlook_Oct 2015

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    Contact Details

    SBI Funds Management Private Limited

    (A joint venture between SBI and AMUNDI)

    Corporate Office:

    9th Floor, Crescenzo,C-38 & 39, G Block,Bandra Kurla Complex,Bandra (East), Mumbai - 400 051Tel: +91 22 6179 3000Fax: +91 22 6742 5687/88/89/90/91

    Website: www.sbimf.com

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