equity research report 30 january 2017 ways2capital
TRANSCRIPT
TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - Indian Benchmark Index Nifty has broken its range low of 8374 benchmark index closed
at 8349 on Friday, 86 points down from last trading session close of 8435. The Index displayed weakness on
Friday on the backdrop of poor Quarterly numbers. The new era of International politics has begun with
Donald Trump coming into power. On Friday much awaited Trump inaugural speech was basically clueless
about plan of “Trumponomics”, but was full of nationalistic rhetoric. Technically, Nifty is still in positive
zone. Market has been consolidating since many days and we were near to a breakout or breakdown, now.
Nifty may see breakout once it breaches levels of 8700 levels whereas a downfall would be seen if it breaches
levels of 8580. India’s benchmark index Nifty open in a negative on Monday trading session down by 20 points
at 8329. Nifty closed the Jan series almost 500 points up at pre-demonetization level of 8600 ahead of Budget
next week. Market sentiment is also upbeat for hopes of a “dream budget” this time to reduce the
demonetization pains ahead of state elections. but strict adherence of fiscal deficit target & capital market
taxation issues may also spoil the “feel good” party. Technically, Indian Stock Market is still in positive zone.
Now, Nifty is headed towards 9000 levels. We would see some profit booking that would be temporary in
nature. 8511 is a monthly reversal levels. The support for the Nifty is 8550-8496 and the resistance to the up
move is at 8707-8740 levels.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty and Small Cap Indices ended in negative territory and closed at 18821,
300 points down from its last day’s close on Friday trading Session. The Bank Nifty open in a negative territory
on Monday trading Session down by 58 points at 18762. The Banking Shares Index remained flat on Tuesday.
It opened at 18762, made a high of 18910 and closed at 18842. it also participated in the rally with the high of
19054 and closed at 19023. The Index saw a charge of 300 points on the upside o Friday trading session. Bank
Nifty’s recent high of 19300 has been crossed and if the Index is able to sustain above 19500, then a big up
move towards 20000 levels is a possibility. Technically Bank Nifty need to stay above 19515 area for further
rally towards 19900-20000 zone. On the other side, sustaining below 19800 area, Bank Nifty may further fall
towards 19500-19100 & 18900 zone for the Next week trading sessions.
Monday, 30 January 2017
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8834 8710 8648 8586 8462
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9573 8895 8556 8217 7539
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
10104 9028 8490 7952 6876
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
20467 19957 19702 19447 18937
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
22633 20499 19432 18365 16231
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
24997 21081 19123 17165 13249
MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 8343 8299 8324 8276
BANK NIFTY 18745 18664 18673 18364
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 8330 7945 7963
BANK NIFTY 18722 17640 16569
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -On the Above given Chart of Nifty We can see that Nifty index has been given
positive trend or in the Range of 8400-8680 Range in Whole Week. . On the Daily Chart of Nifty it
has made the Bullish kind of Pattern. Which is a Clearly signal for Trend Continuation Signal for
Upcoming week. the levels of 8450 after which it created a high of 8680. If Trend is Followed, Nifty
would trade in Positive zone for next trading session and can touch the level of 8800. The Bollinger
Band is Also giving Signal that if it is Sustaining the Level of 8560 could move the Nifty toward the
8800 level. The support for the Nifty is 8551-8425 and the resistance to the up move is at 8760-8800
levels.
PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart -On the Above given daily Chart of BANK NIFTY has Applied the Bollinger Band
along with MACD. Both are the Indicators trading in Negative Territory and it is clearly visible if the
banking Index is able to Sustain the level of 19800 can uplift the index toward the 19900-20000 level
in near term. From this level we are Expecting the If Bank Nifty is able to Sustain the Level of
19750-19800 may go Further Up side to the level of 19920-19980-20000 Level for Next week or
sustaining below 19500 zone, Bank Nifty may further fall towards 19300-18950 area for next week
trading Session. The Support for Bank Nifty is at 19525-19152 and the Resistance 19950-20190 to the
up move is at 20150-20280-20360 levels.
NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2ACC EQ 1452 1440 1432 1421 1412
ADANI PORTS EQ 310 308 306 304 302
AMBUJACEM EQ 236 234 232 230 228
ASIAN PAINT EQ 992 986 980 974 968
AXISBANK EQ 480 476 472 466 460
BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2912 2885 2856 2814 2798
BANKBARODA EQ 172 168 166 164 162
BPCL EQ 738 725 715 700 688
BHEL EQ 146 140 138 132 128
BHARTIARTL EQ 332 322 312 303 294
BOSCH LTD EQ 23277 22889 22561 22173 21845
BHARTI INFRATEL EQ 358 356 354 352 350
CIPLA EQ 595 588 583 576 571
COALINDIA EQ 322 320 318 316 314
CAIRN INDIA LTD EQ 284 282 280 278 276
DRREDDY EQ 3039 3015 2988 2964 2937
GAIL EQ 499 491 486 478 473
GRASIM EQ 944 936 930 922 916
HCLTECH EQ 853 847 844 838 835
HDFC EQ 1403 1387 1358 1342 1313
HDFCBANK EQ 1312 1302 1292 1284 1276
HEROMOTOCO EQ 3291 3250 3225 3184 3159
HINDALCO EQ 198 194 190 186 182
HINDUNILVR EQ 888 876 864 852 848
ICICIBANK EQ 283 278 269 264 255
ITC EQ 270 263 260 253 255
INDUSIND BANK EQ 1284 1268 1247 1239 1224
INFY EQ 942 928 912 889 874
IDEA CELLULAR EQ 78 77 76 75 74
KOTAKBANK EQ 812 802 790 788 774
LT EQ 1485 1463 1448 1426 1411
M&M EQ 1280 1266 1254 1240 1228
MRF EQ 53891 53596 53338 53043 52785
MARUTI SUZUKI EQ 5992 5956 5890 5854 5788
ONGC EQ 210 207 205 202 200
NTPC EQ 182 180 175 173 168
RCOM EQ 32 32 31 31 30
RELCAPITAL EQ 476 470 466 460 456
RELIANCE EQ 1033 1028 1024 1019 1015
RELINFRA EQ 539 533 527 521 515
RPOWER EQ 46 45 44 43 42
SBIN EQ 273 270 264 261 255
SSLT( VEDL) EQ 260 259 257 256 254
SUNPHARMA EQ 647 644 638 635 629
TATA MOTORSDVR EQ 348 344 342 338 336
TCS EQ 2394 2377 2361 2344 2328
TATAMOTORS EQ 557 548 544 535 531
TATAPOWER EQ 82 81 80 79 78
TATASTEEL EQ 474 472 470 468 466
UNIONBANK EQ 147 145 143 141 139
YES BANK LIMITED EQ 1433 1415 1402 1384 1371
ZEEL EQ 525 511 498 484 471
TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE
1 MPS LTD. 744 681 - 8.52 %
2 IPCl LAB 558 536 - 4.00 % -
43 REPRO INDIA LTD. 407 394 - 3.22 %
4 BAJAJ CORP LTD. 395 383 - 3.17 % -
35 AJANTA PHARMA 1781 1728 - 2.97 %
6 8K MILES SOFT 636 618 - 2.82 % -
27 ALEMBIC PHA. 593 576 - 2.82 %
8 PIRAMAL ENTER 1768 1718 - 2.79 % -
29 WIPRO LTD 477 465 - 2.58 %
10 KAVERISEED CMP 481 470 - 2.20 % -
211 ABB INDIA 1131 1110 - 1.87 %
12 VOLTAS LTD. 342 336 - 1.81 % -
113 JK PAPER LTD. 94.85 93.35 - 1.58 %
14 INFOSYS 948 942 - 0.69 % -
0
15 HUL 860 855 - 0.52 %
SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREVCLOSE
CMP % CHANGE
1 HINDALCO INDUS. 171 190+ 11.13 %
2HDFC 1237 1373 + 11.02 %
3 IDEA CELLULAR 71 78+ 9.09 %
4BANK OF BARODA 154 167 + 8.65 %
5 KOTAK BANK 723 785+ 8.57 %
6BHEL 129 139 + 8.18 %
7 GRASIM 863 931+ 7.87 %
8ACC 1326 1430 + 7.86 %
9 ADANI PORTS 284 303+ 6.97 %
10AMBUJA CEMENT 217 232 + 6.94 %
11 ZEEL 467 496+ 6.34 %
12ULTRATECH 3471 3686 + 6.18 %
13 SBIN 251 266+ 6.13 %
14BHARAT PETRO 664 704 + 6.02 %
15 BAJAJ AUTO 2701 2854+ 5.67 %
NEXT WEEK STARS ( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )
NSE FUTURE
NSE FUTURE : BUY ICICIBANK FUTURE ABOVE 274 TGT 280 SL 270
NSE FUTURE : BUY ASHOKLEY FUTURE ABOVE 93.50 TGT 96.50 SL 92
NSE FUTURE : SELL ASIANPAINT FUTURE BELOW 870 TGT 830SL 890
NSE CASH
NSE CASH : BUY VIPIND NSE CASH ABOVE 136 TGT 147 SL 132..
NSE CASH : BUY LIBERTSHOE NSE CASH ABOVE 180 TGT 198 SL 175.
NSE CASH : BUY RBLBANK NSE CASH ABOVE 412 TGT 443 SL 399.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
FDI outflows matches FPIs’ in volatility - While foreign direct investment flowing into
India hit a high of $ 43 billion in the April-November period, a record $ 16.4 billion went the
other way amid private equity exits and other divestments. In fact, $ 6 billion rushed out in a mere
two months — October and November — according to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest
monthly bulletin. That almost matches foreign portfolio investment in terms of volatility — FPIs
pulled out a net $ 7.3 billion during those two months. While this could be partly attributed to PE
investors exiting through initial public offers and other avenues, some of it could be due to
repatriation of profits. Divestments and strategic sales too could have contributed to a one-time
spike in outflows, experts said. The FDI outflow of $16.4 billion is the highest-ever in a year,
even though the fiscal close is four months away from November. Outflows in the same period
last year amounted to $ 6.5 billion
Government raises Rs. 30,000 crore via disinvestment proceeds - The government
has raised around Rs. 30,000 crore from disinvestment proceeds, said department of investment
and public asset management secretary, Neeraj Gupta. This is the highest amount grossed through
the stake sale programme. In this fiscal, the government has budgeted around Rs. 56,500 crore
from disinvestment proceeds, of which Rs. 20,500 crore was to come through strategic sales. The
government will also divest its 10% stake in Moil Ltd. on Tuesday where it currently holds
75.58% stake. “We will do our best to achieve the disinvestment target,” said Gupta added.
FRBM panel to relax 2017-18 fiscal deficit target to 3-3.5%'. - The government
panel set up to review the working of Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, is
expected to relax the fiscal deficit target to 3-3.5 per cent of GDP for 2017-18, says a report.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch , the N K Singh Committee would build cyclicality
in setting fiscal deficit projections by switching to a target range 3-3.5 per cent from a point target
of 3 per cent. The NK Singh panel is expected to submit the new fiscal consolidation roadmap
report today. "After all India's growth typically drives fiscal deficits rather than the other way
round," BofA-ML said in a research note. The report noted that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is
expected to target a fiscal deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP -- same as that of 2016-17 in his
February 1 Budget. On the Reserve Bank's policy easing stance, the report said that the Central
Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on February 8 and in April.
India's 'dynamic economy' to grow at 7.7%: UN - India is one of the most "dynamic
emerging economies" and is likely to grow at 7.7 per cent this year on strong private demand and
government reforms but excluding the effect of demonetisation, a UN report said today. It said
demonetisation undertaken in India will have a "significant impact" on consumer spending in the
short term but the country's economy will return to the about 7.6-7.7 per cent growth. When
asked as to why the UN has not taken into account demonetisation impact on growth forecast,
Economic Affairs Officer at UN ESCAP Matthew Hammil said: The UN report was prepared in
late November, then finalised in December."
November IIP 'false positive', doesn't reflect reality: Crisil - Descibing the official
data on the index of industrial production for November 2016, during which demonetisation was
announced, as a "false positive", Crisil Research has said that the latest IIP figures do not reflect
the true condition of the Indian manufacturing sector. Belying popular expectations, India's
factory output, as measured by the IIP released earlier this month, rose 5.7 per cent in November,
the first month of the government's demonetisation drive. Index of Industrial Production in
October had declined by 1.81 per cent, while there was a 3.4 per cent slide in the corresponding
month of last year.
Trade deficit may be in range of $ 100-110 billion by March-end: Report - The
country's trade deficit which improved by 25 per cent in the first nine months of financial year
2016-17 compared to last year, is likely to be in the range of USD 100-110 billion by March-end,
says a report. During April-December period of the fiscal 2016-17 the trade deficit was at USD
76.37 billion as against USD 100.08 billion in the same period last year. The trade deficit has
improved sharply by almost 25 per cent in the first nine months and with the present trend, the
overall trade deficit would be in the region of USD 100-110 billion for the year fiscal 2016-17"
Care Ratings said in a report.
High government debt limits room for quick deficit reduction: Moody's - Days
ahead of the budget, Moody's said its positive outlook on India reflects expectations of continued
policy reforms reducing government debt even as it feels that the high debt level limits room to
cut fiscal deficit quickly. Cautioning that India's debt-to-GDP ratio at 68.6 per cent is high
compared to peers, it said the economy will return to the previous trend by mid-2017 after
temporary effects of demonetisation fade away. "Our positive outlook on India's Baa3 credit
rating reflects our expectation that continued policy reforms will allow balanced growth to
support a sustainable reduction in the government's debt burden, currently a key constraint on
India's credit worthiness," Moody's Investors Service V-P Sovereign Risk Group William Foster
told PTI. He said persistent sizeable deficits imply that any reduction in India's debt burden will
largely rely on robust nominal GDP growth, which, in turn, is linked to a sustainable recovery in
private investment.
India Inc deal tally soars to $ 62.5 billion in 2016: Grant Thornton - India Inc's merger and
acquisition activity witnessed nearly 1,500 deals worth $ 62.5 billion in 2016 and with more
economic reforms expected, the current year is also likely to be 'action-packed', says a report.
According to assurance, tax and advisory firm Grant Thornton, M&A values clocked their highest, in
the last five years with transaction worth $ 48.5 billion through 516 M&A deals. In contrast, PE
activity slumped this year and registered its first decline in the last four years over increasing caution
in investor sentiments. There were 971 pure play PE deals worth $ 13.9 billion in 2016. "2016 has
been extremely action-packed with tremendous growth in deal activity and a slew of economic and
structural reforms," Harish HV, Partner at Grant Thornton India LLP said.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Foreign exchange reserves rose by $ 688 mn to $ 359.8 billion in the week to January 13 helped
by increase in the foreign currency assets.
Gold imports witnessed a fall of about 32% to $ 17.7 billion in April-December of the current
fiscal, which is expected to keep a lid on the current account deficit.
SEBI plans to further tighten the regulations governing participatory notes amid persisting
concerns that this route is being used for illicit fund flows.
Claiming that demonetisation has affected country's growth, a major central revenue body has
asked Finance Minister not to implement Goods and Services Tax in a hurry and threatened to
take legal recourse in case their concerns are not addressed.
The Central Board of Direct Taxes has sweetened the deal for certain VC and PE funds investing
in start-ups, encouraging such funds to invest more with a promised beneficial tax treatment of
their future gains from transfer of shares.
A record 1.57mn renewable energy certificates were traded on the country’s two energy
exchanges, giving life to hope for a pick-up in the REC market.
India and the UAE signed as many as 13 pacts.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
L&T Hydrocarbon, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Larsen & Toubro, has won orders worth
Rs. 17 billion order in its construction services vertical.
Mahindra & Mahindra Limited has acquired a majority stake in Hisarlar Makina Sanayi ve
Ticaret Anonim irketi for around USD19mn nearly Rs. 1.29 billion.
Future Consumer Limited has entered into an equal joint venture with Tilda Hain India
(part of the US-based Hain Celestial Group) to manufacture, market and distribute natural and
organic products.
Motherson Sumi Systems Limited has entered into an agreement to acquire Finnish truck wire
maker PKC Group for EUR 571 million about Rs. 40 billion. The acquisition will be made
through a wholly-owned subsidiary of MSSL.
PVR Limited will continue to invest Rs. 2.50-3 billion next fiscal to ramp up its screens across
the country.
GMR Infrastructure Limited has completed the international competitive bidding process for the
selection of a developer for Integrated Retail Development at the Delhi International Airport Ltd.
Tata Communications Limited said Tata Communications (Netherlands) has made an
investment in the Netherlands-headquartered Teleena Holding, becoming the single largest
shareholder in the company with 35% stake.
A major fire broke out in one of the manufacturing units of Amara Raja Batteries Limited
located in Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh.
After selling its stake in KG gas block to ONGC Limited for USD 1.2 billion, Gujarat State
Petroleum Corporation is mulling a big financial restructuring including trimming stake in some
business like LNG and portfolio readjustment.
Infosys Limited has invested a little over USD 62 million from its USD 500 million innovation
fund in start-ups covering areas like IoT, automation and drones.
Reliance Industries is in talks to raise as much as USD 2.25 billion Rs. 153 billion in what
could be one of the biggest offshore debt issues by an Indian corporate as the energy-to-retail
conglomerate seeks to replace existing high-cost borrowings as well as build a war chest for its
aggressive expansion strategy in telecom.
Suzlon Group has bagged a 50.40MW order from a leading power utility in Gujarat.
State oil firms have spent 90% of this fiscal’s capital expenditure in the first nine months, with
ONGC Videsh, Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation having exceeded their annual targets already.
Bajaj Auto Limited is making a second attempt to enter Indonesia, this time pillion-riding on
the number one European bike brand.
Lupin Limited has received final approval for the generic version of anti-depressant Paroxetine
Extended Release tablets from the US health regulator.
Suven Life Sciences Limited has been granted a patent by Australia for a drug used in the
treatment of neuro-degenerative diseases.
Manpasand Beverages Ltd is planning to increase its production capacity to more than double
in the next 12-18 months. The company will set up four new manufacturing plants having total
production capacity of 0.2mn cases per day as against the current 0.17mn cases per day.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is looking to sell its US subsidiary, Ohm Laboratories, as
it looks to consolidate its operations in its biggest overseas market.
Cyient Limited said its subsidiary has signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% equity in
the Certon Software Inc. in an all-cash deal.
Ajanta Pharma Limited said that there is no import alert by the USFDA on the company's
manufacturing unit in Aurangabad and it continues to supply to the US market.
Lupin Limited has launched generic version of contraceptives Ortho-Cyclen tablets after getting
approval from the US health regulator.
BASF, whose global business portfolio includes chemicals, agricultural solutions, and oil and gas,
plans to launch five products for rice crop protection in India.
North Eastern Carrying Corporation announced that it has bagged a contract worth Rs. 4 billion
from Tata Steel Limited for transportation of raw materials.
BHEL, in association with ABB, has bagged a project worth Rs13.60bn from Power Grid Corp.
JSW Steel has submitted a bid of Rs250bn to banks for debt-ridden Bhushan Steel.
Indian firms in December 2016 raised USD 2.8 billion in overseas borrowings, including that
from rupee denominated bonds.
Investments in domestic capital markets through participatory notes (P-Notes) have plunged to
41-month low of Rs. 1.57 trillion in December.
Biocon has bagged a MYR 300 million about Rs. 4.61 billion contract from the Ministry of
Health, Malaysia, to supply recombinant human insulin formulations for a period of three years.
Natco Pharma said the US health regulator has made six observations after the completion of
inspection of its Kothur formulation facility in Telangana.
Heineken International is caught in a bind as it is unable to remove chairman Vijay Mallya from
its Indian joint venture United Breweries despite owning a higher stake. The beleaguered
billionaire is causing reputational risks to United Breweries due to his legal battles with lenders
and investigation by government agencies for misappropriation of funds.
Atlanta has secured a Rs. 12.92 billion road project in Gujarat from the National Highways
Authority of India.
Jubilant Life Sciences has received ‘Responsible Care 14001:2013 certification’ under the
American Chemistry Council’s Responsible Care programme for its corporate office in Noida and
for its manufacturing Unit in Gajraula.
Tata Steel Limited will acquire 51% stake of Creative Port Development Pvt , a move that may
optimise in-bound and out-bound supply chain for its steel plants.
The Board of Directors of Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd took a decision to appoint a forensic
auditor for software provided by ODIN. The vendor company is owned and operated by 63
Moons Technologies Ltd, which was earlier known as Financial Technologies India Ltd.
SRS Ltd is in talks with multiplex operators including INOX and private equity players to sell its
cinema business.
Wipro signed an agreement to acquire Info SERVER SA, an IT service provider focussed on the
Brazilian market for USD 8.7 million.
Delhi High Court sought the responses of the Centre and Directorate General of Foreign Trade on
a plea by Cairn India Ltd challenging a single judge order dismissing its petition for exporting its
share of crude oil from Barmer oil field in Rajasthan.
Mezzion Pharma has filed a suit against Dr Reddy’s Laboratories in a US court. It has alleged
the supplier had committed fraud by hiding significant deficiencies in the Current Good
Manufacturing Practice, or CGMP, regulations enforced by the US health regulator.
NTPC Limited has raised EUR 500 million through overseas bonds sale that perhaps may be the
first longest tenor euro-denominated issuance by an Indian company.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
A State Bank of India-led consortium of lenders on Monday filed a plea in the Supreme Court
seeking to be included in the proceedings of a case involving Aircel, saying they would be
“severely” affected if the telco is restrained from earning revenue using its 2G airwaves, which
would impact repayment to creditors.
In a bid to create awareness about a bank's commitment towards their customers, the Banking
Codes and Standards Board of India will organise "Know Your Rights" programme in select
urban and rural areas of the country to enhance awareness on Banking Codes at the grassroot
level, a top official said here today.
With $ 336 million of total revenue in 2016, the lowest for investment banks in the last five
years, million-dollar annual bonuses have all but vanished. Shrinking business has not only taken
a toll on team sizes, but annual payouts as well. Global banks such as Citi, JPMorgan, Goldman
Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley among others have announced annual
bonuses — none in seven figures, according to bankers and head hunters.
India’s largest banks are building a consortium to test an interbank blockchain platform, putting
the country at the cutting edge of adoption of the technology that forms the backbone of
cryptocurrency Bitcoin. The move comes after the central bank’s technology arm the Institute for
Development and Research in Banking Technology released a white paper earlier this month
saying its pilot, for a blockchain platform to settle trade finance transactions, had been successful.
The government is likely to soon announce the second tranche of capital infusion in state-run
lenders, as it tries to assess their requirements to help them maintain appropriated regulatory
capital. Around six banks may get more than Rs. 10,000 crore in the second round. Banks have
made presentations to the finance ministry on their requirements, said a government official
aware of the deliberations.
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