eric boldt warning coordination meteorologist national ...€¦ · national weather service los...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Eric Boldt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard
November 25, 2015
![Page 2: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions
• El Niño has been in a strong category since Oct. 1st
• This could rank among the top three strongest events since 1950
Latest ENSO* Information November 2015
El Niño Advisory in effect since March
* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation
![Page 3: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Warmer water across the tropical Central & Eastern Pacific
Black box represents ENSO Region 3.4 currently at +3.1°C
November Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
![Page 4: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Where Does This El Niño Rank?
Strongest past El Nino’s highlighted
![Page 5: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ENSO Model Predictions
Neutral
Summer Winter
Weak to Moderate
Strong
![Page 6: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Strong El Niño Precip Results
![Page 8: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
• El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter
• Strong El Niño & among top three strongest
• One El Niño winter will not end the drought
• Prior to the rains, we still have a high potential for large wildfires
El Niño Conclusions
![Page 11: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March)
Potential Winter Impacts
Coastal flooding
![Page 12: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
• More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March)
Potential Winter Impacts
Coastal damage
![Page 13: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
• More numerous storms compared with other winters (especially January-March)
Potential Winter Impacts
Floods
![Page 14: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Stay Aware of Weather Predictions
• Follow NWS on social media and web
• Listen to local media on TV, radio, or Internet
Prepare and Take Action
• Improve drainage and water issues now
• Check emergency kits; flood insurance
• Warning notification during events
What Should You Do?
![Page 15: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National ...€¦ · National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard November 25, 2015 •Ocean continues to reflect sustained ... Warmer](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022063007/5fbacdbb3798e7762b64835f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Thank You!
805-988-6623 [email protected]
weather.gov/losangeles
@NWSLosAngeles NWSLosAngeles NWSLosAngeles