A history of the future of news

What 1767 Tells Us About 2100

Eric Newton

-- Excerpts from the Must-See Monday Lecture, Nov. 14, 2011, Arizona State University,

Eric Newton, Senior Adviser to the President,John S. and James L. Knight Foundation

Sources: Various

Evolution of human communication , new categories

Age Human capacity Date (c.) Concept of time

Visual Curiosity 1-2m BC Natural

Language Orality 100,000 BC Cyclical

Mass Media Literacy 1450 AD Linear

Digital Fluency 1991 AD Multi

Visual Language Mass Media

HISTORIC AGE Digital

Global tobillions

MESSAGEREACH

Nearby toa crowd

Communication’s

Exponential Rise

We predict the future based on what we know

Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World, Dec. 31, 1899, looking a century ahead

Multi-Time

Multi-Time combines Natural, Cyclical,

Linear, Exponential and Multi-

Dimensional Time

-- graphic by William Newton

Moon travel

Jules Verne,

From the

Earth to the Moon, 1865

Science fiction writers go with their imaginations

Geostationary satellite, Arthur C. Clarke, Wireless World, Oct. 1945

Geostationary satellites, Arthur C. Clarke, Wireless World, Oct. 1945

Skype, The Jetsons, 1962

Cell phone, Star Trek, 1964

Flat Screens – Jetsons (1962)

I-pad, 2001, a Space Odyssey, 1968

Each American generation comes of age as a different news medium is rising

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Compromise 1767-

1791

Pamphlets American

Revolution

Transcendental 1792-

1821

Partisan weekly

newspapers

(Agricultural era help from

U.S. mail, postal roads) Transcendental

Gilded 1822-

1842

Populist daily

newspapers

Awakening

Progressive 1843-

1859

The Associated Press(the telegraph) Civil War looms

Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”;

media trends from the Newseum, web research

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Missionary 1860-

1882

Illustrated magazines,

niche publications

Civil War

Lost 1883-

1900

Major metropolitan

daily newspapers(Industrial era inventions:

Light bulb, telephone,

linotype, film, etc.)

Third Great

Awakening

G.I. 1901-

1924

Photography in print,

tabloids

Silent 1925-

1942

Radio newscasts,

movies and newsreels

Depression,

World War

TwoGenerations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends

from the Newseum News History Content Book; web research

More cycles in time: Awakenings and crises every 80 years

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Boom 1943-

1960

Glossy color magazines(TV, color TV, home telephones)

Gen X 1961-

1981

TV newscasts(Satellites, cable, video tape)

The 1960s

awakening

Millennial 1982-

2000

World Wide Web (Digital era inventions: personal computers,

the Internet, domestic email, chat, video

games, multimedia)

Cyber 2001-

2026

Mobile and Social Media(Cell phones, search, blogs, citizen media,

social media, blogosphere, smart phones,

tablets, global World Wide Web, universal e-

commerce, remote sensing, wearable media

…)

9-11,

recession,

WWar 3.0

Generations and cycles from “The Fourth Turning”; media trends from the Newseum , web research

The cycles persist even as information explodes

‘Personal, portable, participatory’ ads, 2002, Minority Report

Wearable media, Dick Tracy, two-way wrist radio, Jan. 13, 1946; upgraded to two-way TV in 1964

RememberMulti-Time!

Like a cyclone, turning but

moving ahead

If patterns hold, our Multi-time future will featureaccelerating new media forms, awakenings and crises

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Visionary 2027-2047 Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids, robotics,

artificial intelligence)

Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from

“The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research

Robotics, bionics, artificial intelligence,

The Terminator, 1984; Star Trek, The Next Generation, various

Accelerating media, awakenings and crises

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Visionary 2027-

2047

Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,

robotics, artificial intelligence)

Hybrid 2048-

2068

Bio Media(Augmented reality;

nanotechnology; media

implants; enhanced human

capacity)

Machine awakening:

The Singularity

Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from

“The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research

Machine awareness, iRobot, 2004

Ray Kurzweil: Machines evolve beyond humans

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Visionary 2027-

2047

Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids,

robotics, artificial intelligence)

Hybrid 2048-

2068

Bio Media(Augmented reality;

nanotechnology; media

implants; enhanced human

capacity)

Machine awakening:

The Singularity

Courageo

us

2069-

2089

Hyper Media(Cranial downloads;

thought aggregators; sentient

environment)

Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from

“The Fourth Turning,” tech from“The Singularity is Near,” web research

Science Fiction predicts life after the Singularity

Cranial downloads, The Matrix, 1999

Sentient environment, Avatar, 2009

A final crisis or another chance to emerge stronger?

Generation Birth Rising media Cycle

Visionary 2027-

2047

Intelligent Media(The cloud, smart grids, robotics,

artificial intelligence)

Hybrid 2048-

2068

Bio Media(Augmented reality;

nanotechnology; media implants;

enhanced human capacity)

Machine

awakening:

The Singularity

Courageo

us

2069-

2089

Hyper Media(Cranial downloads;

thought aggregators; sentient

environment)

Enlighten

ed

2090-

2110

Omni Media(Thought projection; telepathy;

telekinesis; teleportation)

World War 4.0:Humans vs.

environment

Mash-up of linear time and cyclical time; generational archetypes from

“The Fourth Turning,” tech from “The Singularity is Near,” web research

Thought projection, telekinesis, the Matrix, 1999

World War 4.0, the Matrix, 1999

YOU

and your children … and their children

… and theirs …

will invent this future of news

(or another)

through your innovations

and consumption

‘So what does all this have to do with me?’

Steve Jobs at Apple: iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad

News pioneers often are young: We just don’t hear those stories

What’s a journalism/mass com major to do?

1. Learn truthful storytelling in all media

2. Master computer assisted reporting/design

3. Watch a lot more science fiction!

4. Fool around with a new digital tool every day

5. Rewrite the codes of ethics: New tools make new rules.

6. Follow new technology closely and create news adaptations

7. Practice working in open, collaborative groups

8. Learn about media law (being rewritten for the digital age) business models (ditto), new engagement techniques (ditto).

9. Teach digital media fluency to everyone

10. Develop sources for covering World War 3.0, just in case

Thank You!

Eric Newton, Arizona State University

November 2011