erik melander's presentation - oecd - pgd expert meeting
TRANSCRIPT
Armed Conflict and Forced Migration Flows
Erik MelanderProfessor of Peace and Conflict Research
Deputy Director of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
Armed Conflict and Migration Flows: Two issues
• How much conflict (number of conflicts and intensity)?
• How large migration flows per conflict (the size of the migration flow depends on the type of conflict)?
Armed Conflicts of the World, 2013
Number of Battle Deaths, 1946-2013
Average Migration Flows in Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1979-2008
50
100
150
200
250
Ave
rag
e F
orc
ed
Dis
pla
ce
men
t F
low
in
Tho
usa
nd
s
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year
Displaced Fitted values
Adapted from: Melander, Erik; Magnus Öberg & Jonathan Hall, 2009. 'Are 'New Wars' More Atrocious? Battle Intensity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold War', European Journal of International Relations, 15(3):505-536.
Georeferenced Eventdata
Observed and Simulated Proportion of Countries in Armed Conflict, 1960-2050.
Source: Hegre et al. (2013), p 216.
Following the War on Terror and the Arab Spring
• Onsets of armed conflict in relatively developed countries: Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Syria (Bahrain), Ukraine.
• Particularly atrocious wars: Iraq, Syria.
• More in line with the model: Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia.
Norms of tolerance of difference and treatment of weaker groups• The fundamental template in all societies (and
all families): discrimination of women.• Linked to ideals of masculinity that promote
violence as a means of dealing with conflict and domination of weaker groups.
• Measures of gender inequality predict armed conflict and human rights violations.
• Many studies published in major peer-reviwed journals (ask me if you are interested).
Not taking into account these norms
• Underestimating risks in North Africa and the Middle East.
• Examples of countries missing from the list of most conflict-prone: Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.
• Overestimating somewhat the risks in highly developed but populous countries in East Asia and Latin America.
• Underestimating how many refugees are generated per conflict?