Sot – En möjlighet att mildra både klimatförändringar och

häloseffekterSLF, Stockholm, 24 April 2013

Erik SwietlickiProfessor

Division of Nuclear Physics,Lund University

erik.swietlicki@nuclear.lu.seP.O. Box 118, SE-21100 Lund, Sweden

Luftburna partiklar – Kyler vår planet men dödar mäniskor!

Konflikt mellan ”positiv” klimatpåverakan (avkylande) effekt och negativa hälsoeffekter.

Sot är unikt på så sätt att det är ENBART DÅLIGT!

Sot värmer och dödar!

Om vi lyckas reducera utsläppen av sot kan vi

mildra uppvärmningen av klimatet,

skydda människors hälsa.

Win-win situationReduktion av sot-emissionerna (BC)

342 W/m 2

Infraröd värmestrålning

Kortvågigsolstrålning(synligt ljus)

Växthusgaser (CO2, metan ...) förhindrar värmestrålning från att försvinna ut i rymden

Varmare klimat!

Plymer från fartyg över havet (ship tracks).

Innehåller både sot och sulfat.

Indirekt effekt av aerosoler på klimatet

http://press.iarc.fr/pr213_E.pdf

12 June 2012WHO classified diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans.

Health effects of black carbon

This report presents the results of a systematic review of evidence of the health effects of black carbon (BC). The Task Force on Health agreed that a reduction in exposure to PM2.5 containing BC and other combustion-related PM material for which BC is an indirect indicator should lead to a reduction in the health effects associated with PM. The Task Force recommended that PM2.5 should continue to be used as the primary metric in quantifying human exposure to PM and the health effects of such exposure, and for predicting the benefits of exposure reduction measures. The use of BC as an additional indicator may be useful in evaluating local action aimed at reducing the population’s exposure to combustion PM (for example, from motorized traffic).

WHO, 2012.

Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone

Black carbon and tropospheric ozone have detrimental impacts on health, climate and the environment. This assessment looks into all aspects of anthropogenic emissions of black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursors, such as methane. It also examines a large number of technically feasible measures to reduce harmful emissions and identifies 16 measures that would produce important climate, health and crop yield benefits.

UNEP/WMO, 2011.

Near-term Climate Protection and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers - A UNEP Synthesis Report

This report addresses the mitigation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and its key role in air pollution reduction, climate protection and sustainable development. SLCFs are substances in the atmosphere that contribute to global warming and have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere. The focus is on three SLCFs – black carbon, tropospheric ozone and methane – because reducing them will provide significant benefits through improved air quality and a slowing of near-term climate change.

UNEP, 2011.

The Pufendorf Institute A

CCAC – Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP)

http://www.unep.org/CCAC/

Report to US Congress on Black Carbon

This report synthesizes and assesses available scientific information on the current and future impacts of black carbon, and evaluates the effectiveness of available black carbon mitigation approaches and technologies for protecting climate, public health, and the environment.

USEPA, March 2012.

http://www.epa.gov/blackcarbon/

“The sign and magnitude of the net climate forcing from BC emissions are not fully known at present, largely due to remaining uncertainties regarding the effects of BC on clouds.”

The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) established an Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) in 2009 with the goal of reviewing the state of science surrounding SLCFs in the Arctic and recommending the science tasks that AMAP should conduct or promote to improve the state of knowledge and its application to policy-making.This document is a result of the work completed by the AMAP Expert Group on SLCFs. It focuses on black carbon (BC) but also considers the impact of co-emitted organic carbon (OC).

AMAP, 2011

Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?

sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären

APMDMA

Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?

sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären

SP-A

MS

sek minuter

Artificiell åldringPAM

Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?

sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären

Mas

sa

sek-min timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären

Sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålningDirekt effekt

3-λ PASS

3-λ Neph

7-λ Aethal

Klimatmodeller använder olika sätt att beräkna hur sotpartiklarna absorberar solstrålning

CCNC

HTDMA

Öka

d fu

ktigh

et

sek-min min-timmar timmar-dagarÅldring i atmosfären

Åldrade sotpartiklar tar upp vatten och kan växa till molndroppar (CCN)

Indirekt effekt

Direkt effekt

Störning av strålningsbalansen (W/m2)

Kylande Värmande

Partiklar Moln

Snö

Totalt

Sotets klimatpåverkan – Bond mfl JGR 2013

Andreae et al. (Nature, 2005)

Osä

kerh

et

Vad är klimatkänsligheten för en fördubbling av halten CO2?Växthusgaernas uppvärming maskeras av aerosolerna avkylning.

“Global Dimming” och framtidens klimat

Hög klimatkänslighet(Starkt avkylande aerosoler)Låg klimatkänslighet(Svagt avkylande aerosoler)

Temperaturökning vid enfördubbling av halten CO2

-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 00.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Uppskattning av aerosolernas total strålningsstörning (W/m2)

Tem

pera

turö

knin

g (o

C)

HC Hansson, ITM, 2012

Lund University / Faculty of Engineering / Department of Physics / Division of Nuclear Physics / Axel Eriksson

Stadsmätning: Köpenhamn, Øster Søgade26 dec 2011 – 22 jan 2012

60 % av alla patriklar (PM1) innehåller en sotkärna.

Sotpartiklarna åldras i atmosfärenHur mycket?

Åldrade sotpartiklar

Färska sotpartiklar

Totalantal partiklar (cm-3)

Depo

nera

t ant

al p

artik

lar (

cm-3

)

Lungdeposition av partiklarLycksele

Vedelding

Trafik

Lund University / Faculty of Engineering / Department of Physics / Division of Nuclear Physics / Axel Eriksson

Centrala Köpenhamn 2012

Kemisk sammansättning Storleksfördelning

44%

14% 13%

20%

6 %3 %

Åldradesotpartiklar

Färskasotpartiklar

Modern/Fossil Carbon from 14C Analysis in Total

CarbonKristina Stenström, Johan GenbergLund University

54%46%

San Pietro Capofiume

52%48%

Ispra78%

22%

K-puszta74%

26%

Vavihill

75%

25%

Melpitz

Vavihill

K-puszta

San Pietro Capofiume

Melpitz

JRC-Ispra

Modern carbon

Fossil carbon

Vavihill Organic Aerosol Source ApportionmentData on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan

Johan Genberg et al, Lund University

WinterSummerWinterSummerWinterSummer

WinterSummer WinterSummer

Sot - Veldning Fossilt Sot

Fossilt OCOC - VeldningBiogent OC

Sot

(Genberg et al., ACP (2011)

OC

EC

• Summer: strong dominance of biogenic Organic Carbon (OC)• Winter: equal contributions from biomass and fossil fuel burning• Still significant winterly biogenic contribution

Rural southern Sweden (Vavihill) Organic Aerosol Source ApportionmentData on OC/EC, 14C and levoglucosan

(Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research

InfraStructure Network)

is a European Project aiming at integrating European ground-based stations equipped with advanced atmospheric probing instrumentation for aerosols, clouds, and short-lived gas-phase species.

Standard Operating Procedures for sampling and analysis of EC and light-absorbing carbon, including BC.

3/9/2008 WP 1.3 31Transportation dominate

Emissions of EC (soot) in Europe – EC Mass

Genberg et al, ACPD 2013

EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning)

BC i PM10 (µgm−3)

Fossil andel

Vedeldningandel

Öppen biomass-

förbränning

Genberg et al, ACPD 2013

EMEP modellen för sot – Uppdaterad med ny emissionsinventering för Europa (och vedeldning)

"Black Carbon - Formation, life cycle, health and climate impacts, policy and response

measures" 

Workshop 18-20 June 2012