erste group press conference q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 august 2015 . erste group press conference...

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Page Andreas Treichl, CEO Erste Group Gernot Mittendorfer, CFO Erste Group Andreas Gottschling, CRO Erste Group Peter Bosek, Board Member – Retail Banking Josef Sikela, Board Member – Corporate Banking Petr Brávek, COO Erste Group 7 August 2015 Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results

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Page 1: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Andreas Treichl, CEO Erste Group Gernot Mittendorfer, CFO Erste Group Andreas Gottschling, CRO Erste Group Peter Bosek, Board Member – Retail Banking Josef Sikela, Board Member – Corporate Banking Petr Brávek, COO Erste Group

7 August 2015

Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results

Page 2: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Presentation topics

2

• Business environment

• Business performance

• Assets and liabilities

• Outlook

Page 3: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Most CEE countries should continue to significantly outpace EU growth

Real GDP growth (in %) Domestic demand contribution to GDP growth (in %)

• Erste Group’s core CEE markets expected to grow by more than 3% in 2015, with continued positive outlook for 2016

• Growth-driving factors are country specific - in Austria, Czech Republic and Slovakia investments play a leading role

• Inflation is expected to increase from low levels as support from low commodity prices wanes and private consumption picks up; temporary negative price development in RO due to VAT cut

CZ

2.2

3.7

AT

0.8 0.2

HR

0.8

HU

2.4 2.8

RO

3.5 3.2

SK

3.5 3.0

HR

0.2

0.0 HU

1.7 1.2

RO

3.7 3.3

SK

3.1 2.3

CZ

1.7

3.4

AT

1.3 0.7

2016

2015

3

Source: Erste Research; Domestic demand = private consumption + public consumption + gross capital expenditure

Ø 1.5 Eurozone 1.4

Page 4: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

CEE continues to be the least indebted region (on average) in Europe

General government balance (in % of GDP) Public debt (in % of GDP)

• Healthy public finances in most of Erste Group’s core CEE markets: most countries fulfill Maastricht criteria

• Sustainable current account balances, supported by competitive economies with decreasing unemployment rates

HR

-5.2 -4.5

HU RO

-2.8

-1.6

SK

-2.0

CZ

-1.4 -2.0

AT

-1.6 -2.2

90

77

40

53

41

8793

75

40

53

41

86

SK HR RO CZ AT HU

2015

2016

Maastricht limit: -3%

Maastricht limit: 60%

4

Source: Erste Research

-2.5 -2.5 -2.5

Page 5: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

End of easing cycle in CEE – no hikes in sight

Austria Czech Republic Romania

Slovakia Hungary Croatia

• ECB cut discount rate to 0.05% in Sept 14; maintains expansionary monetary policy stance

• National bank maintains ultra-low interest rates since Nov 2012 at 0.05%

• Central bank cut policy rate to historic low of 1.75% in May 2015

• As part of euro zone ECB rates are applicable in SK

• National bank restarted easing cycle in Feb 2015; cutting base rate to 1.35% in July 2015, completing easing cycle

• Central bank maintains discount rate at 7.0% since mid-2011

1-6 14 1-6 15

1.17%

0.15%

1.83%

0.30%

10-year Gov

3m Interbank

1.25%

0.34%

2.00%

0.37%

1-6 14 1-6 15

4.15%

1.92%

5.10%

2.60%

1-6 14 1-6 15

1.55%

0.15%

2.31%

0.30%

1-6 14 1-6 15

4.33%

2.23%

5.42%

2.68%

1-6 14 1-6 15

0.75% 0.64%

1-6 14 1-6 15

Source: Bloomberg.

5

Page 6: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

CEE ratings are continuously improving

Rating changes from 2000 to 2015 (S&P’s) Highlights

• Rating agencies acknowledge improving macro fundamentals in CEE

• Czech Republic‘s and Slovakia‘s ratings already in core Europe league – comparable to France and Belgium

• Romania and Italy in the same rating class.

Source: Bloomberg. Legend: downgrade upgrade

6

S&P rating HR CZ HU PL RO SK SI AU F BE ES IT

AAA 2000 2000 AA+ 2015 2000 2000 AA 2015 2015 2000 AA- 2015 A+ 2015 A 2000 A- 2000 2000 2015 2015

BBB+ 2000 BBB 2015 BBB- 2000 2015 2015 BB+ 2015 2000 BB 2015 BB- B+ B B- 2000

CCC+ CCC CCC- CC+ CC C D

Page 7: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Presentation topics

7

• Business environment

• Business performance

• Assets and liabilities

• Outlook

Page 8: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Performing loan stock and growth – Performing loan volume grows by 4.0% yoy, edges up qoq

Geographic view Growth

8

Highlights

• Across the board growth of the mortgage loan portfolio

• Fifth consecutive quarter with rising performing loan volume, due to qoq increases in Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania

• Slovakia: remains growth driver, based on continued Retail strength

• Romania: slight qoq increase in performing loans driven by Retail

• Hungary: qoq decline mainly due to 5% HUF depreciation in Q2 15

Other 0.3 0.3 0.4

RS 0.5 0.5 0.5

HR 5.6 5.7 5.6

HU 3.0 3.2 3.6

SK 8.6 8.3 7.5

RO 7.0 6.8 7.1

CZ 18.6 18.2 17.6

AT/OA 11.4 11.9 10.6

AT/SB 36.7 36.6 35.5

AT/EBOe 28.6 28.5 27.3

Group 120.3 120.1

115.7

30/06/15 31/03/15 30/06/14

in EUR bn -8.8% -27.1%

7.4% 12.8%

-0.5% 1.3%

-7.8% -18.6%

3.5% 14.4%

1.7% -1.5%

2.1% 5.3%

-4.1% 7.4%

0.4% 3.6%

0.4% 4.8%

0.2% 4.0%

QoQ YoY

Page 9: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Customer deposit stock & growth – Deposits grow by 3.6% yoy, stable qoq

Geographic view Growth

9

Highlights

• Continued customer trust despite low interest rate environment

• Customer deposits up 3.6% yoy (stable qoq), mainly driven by retail and SME, as well as savings banks

• Slovakia: deposit growth broadly in line with loan growth ytd

• Romania: yoy increase driven by Retail

• Hungary: qoq decrease driven by ouflows in corporate as per normal business cycle; yoy retail deposits still solidly up

RS

HR

0.6

3.9

5.2

0.6

4.5

-0.3 -0.1

0.6

5.1

4.5

Other

HU 3.6

SK 10.4 10.0 9.2

RO 8.8 8.8 8.4

CZ 25.3 24.9 24.5

AT/OA 4.0 5.0 5.3

-0.1

36.6 36.2 34.8

AT/EBOe 29.9

AT/SB

29.7

Group 124.5 124.8

120.2

29.9

30/06/14

30/06/15 31/03/15

in EUR bn

0.7%

3.6% -0.2%

-20.8% -25.0%

-27.6% -69.8%

1.9% -4.6%

2.2% 16.5%

-12.9% 9.4%

4.3% 12.7%

-0.3% 4.1%

1.6% 3.3%

1.2% 5.2%

0.0%

QoQ YoY

Page 10: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

NII and NIM – Q2 15 NII & NIM stable yoy and qoq

Net interest income Net interest margin

10

Highlights

• Group NII stable, supported by shifts of the deposit structure from long-term to shorter term

• Romania: yoy decrease driven by significantly lower average loan volumes

• Hungary: yoy decline driven by CHF conversion induced lower volumes

• Other Austria: improvements primarily on better performance in Commercial Real Estate

105

68

39

24

8

67

69

112

122

229

100

228

159

37

10

66

55

112

111

223

103

223

158

10

56

114

109

228

227

159

Other

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group 1,113 1,099 1,120

Q2 15 Q1 15 Q2 14

in EUR bn

3.85%

1.84%

3.84%

1.86%

3.24%

1.83%

2.61%

3.73%

1.45%

1.18%

2.55%

3.13%

1.77%

3.73%

3.92%

3.08%

3.97%

1.74%

1.42%

3.74% 4.03%

4.07%

1.74% 2.59%

3.35%

3.31% 3.25%

4.72% 5.92%

5.66%

Not meaningful

Page 11: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Operating income – Q2 15 operating income stable yoy and qoq

Geographic view

11

Highlights

• AT/EBOe: increased NII due to higher loan volumes and structural changes in the deposits structure (short-term savings)

• AT/Savings Banks: increase driven by net trading

• Czech Rep.: yoy decline due to NII and fee pressure

• Romania: yoy decline due to NII (lower volumes & lower market interest rates)

• Hungary: yoy decline in NII due to shrinking loan volumes as a result of CHF conversion

191

50

176

103

1428

12

103

114

147

361

170

355

250

14

87

85

145

165

364

172

351

255

43

92

152

165

342

365

258

Other

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group 1,710 1,689 1,731

Q2 14 Q1 15 Q2 15

in EUR m

Page 12: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Operating expenses – Costs flat qoq, slightly up yoy

Geographic view

12

Highlights

• Regulatory requirements push for higher headcount related to finance & risk management; IT. Offsets cost discipline in all entities

• Headcount up 1,1% to 46,575 compared with December 2014

78

170

65

44

1069

9

45

42

65

78

165

74

239

147

9

47

43

65

80

160

78

235

153

56

47

82

83

240

152

Other

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group 949 948 933

Q2 15 Q1 15 Q2 14

in EUR m

Page 13: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Operating result and CIR – Operating result up by 2.8% qoq, down by 4.6% yoy

Geographic view

13

96

113

73

204

125

87

57

4-41

3

58

83

196

116

103

-28

5

40

42

80

85

94

117

102

-13

48

83

171

93

107

Other

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group 762 741

798

Q2 15 Q1 15 Q2 14

69.3% 67.3%

77.1% 45.2%

54.1% 44.0% 47.5% 50.6%

36.3% 43.0% 44.9% 44.0%

49.8% 48.7%

40.9% 49.8%

43.9% 45.7% 47.0% 45.3% 43.6%

65.9% 66.8% 67.3%

58.8% 59.8% 58.9%

55.5% 56.1% 53.9%

in EUR m Not meaningful

Highlights

• Operating result within guidance due to stable NII and slightly higher fee income, accompanied by slightly higher operating expenses yoy driven by regulatory requirements

Page 14: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Risk costs – Risk costs remain low in Q2 15 due to Austria and Romania

Risk costs Risk costs in bps

14

Highlights • Continued strong risk performance

in Q2 15 supported by risk management actions taken in 2014 (Romania, Hungary), and favorable H1’15 developments in Austria

• Romania: Significant decline yoy and qoq following exceptional 2014 provisioning actions and YTD recoveries in corporate segments

• AT/EBOe & AT/SB & AT/OA: Favorable default/provisioning trends observed in H1’15

• Other Austria: Improvement driven by the ongoing CRE restructuring actions in Immorent

• Hungary: Q2 performance in line with full-year outlook following the FX conversion one-off effect in Q1

• Croatia: Stable yoy trend with Q2 performance driven by increased coverage on SME clients

22

40-7

2

43

17

14

182

34

70

42

35

4

2

26

-2

-9

31

67

21

22

3

41

61

9

15

19

7

5

-8

Other

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group 191

183 432

Q2 15 Q1 15 Q2 14

in EUR m

0.49% 0.30% -0.11%

2.35%

1.77%

2.49%

-0.39%

0.20%

-0.21%

1.40%

1.31%

0.66%

1.03%

2.24%

1.44%

6.13%

0.40%

2.03%

0.66%

1.49%

7.26%

0.41%

0.74%

0.69%

0.05% 0.21%

0.43%

0.58% 0.57%

1.35%

Not meaningful

Page 15: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Non-performing loans and NPL ratio – NPL ratio falls for the 6th consecutive quarter to 7.7%

Non-performing loans (NPL) NPL ratio

15

Highlights

• Continued decline of group NPL volume in Q2 15 supported by most business lines and geographic segments

• NPL sales of EUR 149.9m in Q2 15 (Q1 15: EUR 61.6m) • Retail: EUR 51.0m (Q1 15:

EUR 20.9m ) • Corporate: EUR 98.9m (Q1

15: EUR 40.7m) • NPL sales driven by Romania

and Hungary, along with additional minor transactions in Slovakia, Czech Republic and Austria

47

94

426

855

416

19

81

851

834

993

50

81

821

413

806

942

Other

RS

HR 1,303 1,293 1,242

HU 1,306

SK

RO 1,860 2,112

2,933

CZ

AT/OA 1,445 1,523 1,568

AT/SB 2,380 2,437 2,506

AT/EBOe 1,018

Group 10,102

10,560 11,996

30/06/15 31/03/15 30/06/14

in EUR m

3.6% 3.4% 3.2%

18.8%

13.0%

18.3%

23.6%

11.0%

21.0%

16.3%

26.4%

4.4%

4.8%

12.9%

13.8%

21.7%

4.2%

11.4%

21.1%

18.6%

29.3%

4.6%

4.6%

5.4%

6.1% 6.2% 6.6%

7.7% 8.1% 9.4%

5.3% 10.0%

13.9%

Page 16: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Other result – Q2 15 other result benefits from financial asset gains and lack of one-offs

Geographic view

16

Highlights

• QOQ and YOY improvements as all EU banking taxes already paid in Q1 15 and intangible write-downs (mostly BCR) already made in 2014

• Hungary: qoq improvement due to booking of full annual banking tax in Q1 15, yoy improvement due to FX conversion charges in Q2 14

• AT/Savings Banks: yoy and qoq improvement primarily driven by valuation effects

• Czech Rep.: Q2 15 benefitted from lack of EU resolution fund contribution, which burdened Q1 15

0

-1

-10

-14

-1

-11

-31

20

0

-2

-59

-9

-7

-19

2

-12

-10

14

0

-1

-4

-9

-3

3

-24

17

-15

Other -26 -957

RS

HR

HU -142

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group -22

-143 -1.147

Q2 15

Q2 14 Q1 15

in EUR m

Page 17: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Net result – Continued positive trend in Q2 15

Net result by geography

17

Highlights

• Q2 15 net profit confirms positive trend, driven by Austria, Romania, Hungary and segment Other

• Romania: big swing in profitability in Q1 15 confirmed in Q2 15 as risk costs remain low

• Hungary: yoy improvement due to FX conversion charges in Q2 14, which did not recur in Q2 15; qoq flat

• Return on equity advances to 10.2% in Q2 15, following 9.0% in Q1 15

127

9

70

261

43

1

-89

46

-66

-5

5

66

2

6

-16

38

124

17

13

51

226

-90

1

7

-19

52

51

125

15

75

Other -79 -1.127

RS

HR

HU

SK

RO

CZ

AT/OA

AT/SB

AT/EBOe

Group -1.033

Q2 15 Q1 15 Q2 14

in EUR m

Page 18: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Presentation topics

18

• Business environment

• Business performance

• Assets and liabilities

• Outlook

Page 19: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

YTD overview – Loan/deposit ratio stable at 99.2% (Dec 14: 98.6%)

Assets (EUR bn)

19

Assets (in %) Liabilities & equity (EUR bn) Liabilities & equity (in %)

30/06/15

197.5

7.8 1.4

123.5

8.8

49.0

7.0

31/12/14

196.3

8.6 1.4

120.8

7.4

50.1

7.8

Other assets Intangibles Net loans Loans to banks Trading, financial assets Cash

30/06/15

197.5

14.0 6.7

29.9

124.5

15.7 6.6

31/12/14

196.3

13.4 6.6

31.1

122.6

14.8 7.7

Equity Other liabilities Debt securities Customer deposits Bank deposits Trading liabilities

100%

30/06/15

3.9% 0.7%

62.5%

4.4%

24.8%

3.5%

31/12/14

4.4% 0.7%

61.6%

3.8%

25.5%

4.0% 100%

30/06/15

7.1% 3.4%

15.1%

63.0%

8.0% 3.4%

31/12/14

6.8% 3.3%

15.9%

62.5%

7.5% 3.9%

Page 20: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Assets and liabilities – Performing loans up 4.0% yoy, NPLs down 15.8%

Net customer loans (EUR bn) Performing loans (EUR bn)

20

Non-performing loans (EUR bn)

• Performing loan growth accelerates, driven by Austria, Slovakia and Czech Republic, Other EU and Other: • QOQ increase in Austria due to growth in corporate business, yoy growth driven by retail • Slight increase in performing loans in Romania, continued decline in Hungary

• 15.8% yoy decline in NPL stock mainly driven by NPL sales and upgrades across most geographies

+2.8%

30/06/15

123.4

66.1

19.6

9.3 7.9

4.1 6.6 0.6 6.0

3.2

31/12/14

120.8

64.7

19.1

8.5 7.9

4.3 6.6 0.8 5.7

3.2

30/06/14

120.1

63.3

19.0

8.0 8.8

4.9 6.6 0.9 5.6 2.9

AT CZ SK RO HU HR RS Other EU Other

+4.0%

30/06/15

120.3

65.0

19.3

9.2 7.6

3.7 5.9 0.6 5.7

3.3

31/12/14

117.4

18.8

8.3 7.5

3.8 6.0 0.8 5.4 3.2

30/06/14

115.7

62.3

18.7

8.0 7.8

4.2 5.9 0.8 5.1 2.9

63.7

30/06/15

10.1

2.8

1.0 0.5

2.0

0.9

1.6 0.2 0.6 0.4

31/12/14

10.9

2.9

1.0 0.5

2.3

1.3

1.6

-15.8%

0.2 0.7 0.5

30/06/14

12.0

3.0

1.1 0.5

3.1

1.5

1.6 0.1

0.8 0.4

Page 21: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

LT funding – Limited LT funding needs

Maturity profile of debt (EUR bn)

21

• Increased appetite for issues in covered bond format led to a successful EUR 500m 10y mortgage Pfandbrief (MS + 6 bps) in the first quarter

• Historically low refinancing cost result in an ongoing prolongation of the redemption profile (average maturity of issues during 2015 amounted to 8 years)

• Issuance of EUR 1.3bn has been achieved in the first 6 months, which is more than half of the yearly funding target

2027+

1.0

2026

0.4

2025

0.8

2024

0.6

2023

0.9

2022

2.7

2021

2.7

2020

2.0

2019

1.9

2018

2.6

2017

2.6

2016

3.7

2015

1.8

Senior unsec. bonds Covered bonds Debt CEE Capital exc Tier 1

Page 22: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Capital position – B3 phased-in CET1 ratio increases to 11.6% at 30 June 15 (v/s 10% required)

Basel 3 capital (phased-in)

22

Basel 3 capital ratios (phased-in)

• B3 phased-in CET1 ratio at 11.6% at 30 June 2015 (YE 2014: 10.6%) mainly driven by slightly improved total capital and reduction in risk-weighted assets

• B3FL CET1 ratio at 11.3%

31/03/15

16.1

10.7

0.0

5.4

0.0

31/12/14

15.8

10.6

0.0

5.2

0.0

30/09/14

15.7

10.9

0.0

4.9

0.0

30/06/14

16.1

11.5

0.0

4.7

0.0

30/06/15

16.8

11.6

0.0

5.2

0.0

CET1 AT1 Tier 2 Tier 3

31/03/15

15.8

%

10.5

%

10.5

%

31/12/14

15.7

%

10.6

%

10.6

%

30/09/14

15.7

%

10.8

%

10.8

%

30/06/14 16

.5%

11

.7%

11

.7%

30/06/15

11.6

%

11.6

%

16.8

%

Total capital Tier 1 CET1

Highlights

Page 23: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

Page

Presentation topics

23

• Business environment

• Business performance

• Assets and liabilities

• Outlook

Page 24: Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results€¦ · 7 August 2015 . Erste Group Press Conference Q2 2015 results . Page Presentation topics . 2 • Business environment • Business

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Conclusion – Outlook • Operating environment anticipated to be conducive to credit expansion

• Real GDP growth of between 2-4% expected in 2015 in all major CEE markets, except Croatia • Real GDP growth to be driven by solid domestic demand • Real GDP growth in Austria expected at below 1% in 2015

• Return on tangible equity (ROTE) expected at 8-10% in 2015

• Operating result expected to decline in the mid-single digits on the back of lower but sustainable operating results in Hungary (due to FX conversion related effect of lower average volume) and Romania (lower unwinding impact) as well as persistent low interest rate environment

• Loan growth expected in the low single digits in 2015 • Risk costs expected to decline to about EUR 0.9-1.1bn • Banking levies expected at about EUR 360m in 2015, including parallel contributions to national

as well as European bank resolution and deposit insurance funds; related discussions with Austrian government still ongoing

• Risks to guidance

• Consumer protection initiatives, e.g. CHF borrower support scheme in Croatia • Geopolitical risks resulting in potentially negative economic impacts

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