Energy

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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2014

Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector

AC2015-Doc09

Energy

2014 ESA annual survey conducted within EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities :

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CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ

RWE SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL

FORTUM IGNALINAKOZLODUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS

Energy

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U Demand

Energy

Demand of U is driven by - 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Members States - 131 EU-based nuclear reactors - According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to 876.8 TWh (2013) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 26.9 % of total EU-28 production.

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Energy

URANIUM LOADED INTO EU REACTORS

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2014 2013 % change Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2.165 2.343 -8% Enrichment assay (%) 3.85 3.87

Feed

NatU (tU) 15.355 17.175 -10.6%

RepU (tU) 582 504 15.4% tSWU 11.803 12.617 -6.5% Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.24

Demand of U

Energy

MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS

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2014 2013 % change MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU)

11.603 11.120 4%

Savings in NatU (tonnes)

1.156 1.047 10%

Savings in SWU (tonnes)

825 740 11%

Demand of U

Energy

Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2014

Source Quantities

(tU) Share (%)

Uranium originated outside EU 14 955 87.5

Uranium originated in EU (approximate annual production)

400 2.3

Reprocessed uranium 582 3.4

Savings from MOX 1 156 6.8

Total annual requirements 17 094 100

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Demand of U

Energy

U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities

in tonnes U, 2005-2014

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Demand of U

Energy

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URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES

2014 2013 % change

Uranium delivered (tU) 14.751 17.023 -13.4%

Nr of deliveries 125 132

Long-term contracts (%) 96.5 93

Spot contracts (%) 3.5 7

Demand of U

Energy

EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2015-2034

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NatU gross requirements

Gross 20-year AV: 17.600

NatU net requirements

Net 20-year AV: 14.800

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

ton

nes

Nat

U o

r to

nn

es S

WU

Demand of U

Energy

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Demand of U

EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2015-2034

SWU gross requirements

Gross 20-year AV: 14.200

SWU net requirements

Net 20-year AV: 12.116

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

ton

nes

Nat

U o

r to

nnes

SW

U

Energy

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• Future Demand of U

EU and worldwide up to 2030

• EU U demand is approximately stable around 17 600 tU /year up from 2015 to 2024 and 14 800 tU/year from 2025 to 2034

• whereas global demand is increasing rapidly

• EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 26% in 2014 to 15% in 2030

2014 2015 2020 2030

EU Demand 17.094 18.248 17.115 14.666

Global Demand* 65.908 66.883 81.550 97.450

EU Share% 26% 27% 20% 15%

Sources: ESA Annual Report 2014 and (*) WNA Market Report 2013, Demand reference scenario

Demand of U

Energy

U Supply

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Energy

Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2014

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Supply of U

21 suppliers

AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma)

AREVA Mines

BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)

Cameco Inc. Corporation USA

CNU

Cominak

DIAMO

Energy US

Internexco GmbH

Itochuint

Aron

KazAtomProm

Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch

NUKEM GmbH

Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd

Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport)

Traxys North America LLC

TVEL

UEM

Uranium One

Urenco Ltd

Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2014

Supply of U

Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries by region, 2006-2014

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Kazakhstan Russia Niger Australia CanadaUnited States EU Uzbekistan Namibia OtherMalawi Ukraine South Africa HEU feed Re-enriched tails

Supply of U

Energy

U Prices

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Energy

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ESA U Price Indices

• ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2014

• ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2014

• ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years (2012-2014) with deliveries in 2014

U Prices

Energy

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• Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities

during the reference year i.e. 2014

• Currency Conversion

o converted into EUR

o ECB annual average exchange rates

o ECB EUR/USD (2014) = 1.33

• Unit Conversion

o kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion factors

• ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price

as U308

o ESA Conversion Price (2014) = €9.21/kgU

o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts

ESA Prices Calculation Methodology

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Spot U3O8 prices

2014 2013 2014/2013

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

74,65 78,24 -5%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9

38,15 39,97 -5%

• Based on prices in spot contracts

• 3.5% of total deliveries

• 10 deliveries

• Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae

• Deliveries accounted for 513 tonnes of uranium

• Widely distributed: 66-96 €/kgU or 34-49 $/lbU3O8

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Long-term U3O8 price

2014 2013 2013/2012

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

78,31 85,19 -8%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9

40,02 43,52 -8%

• Based on prices in long term contracts

• Contracts signed 8 years earlier on average

• 96.5% of total deliveries • 115 deliveries • Based on fixed prices or

index-based formulae • Deliveries accounted for

14.238 tonnes of uranium • Data widely scattered • 75% of prices falling into

range: 66-107 € / kgU or 34-55 $/lb U3O8

U Prices

Energy

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ESA ‘MAC-3’ Multiannual U3O8 price

2014 2013 2014/2013

EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU

93,68 84,66 11%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9

47,87 43,25 11%

• 18% of total deliveries

• 29 deliveries • Deliveries accounted

for 2.679 tonnes of uranium

• Based on deliveries made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years

U Prices

MAC 3 index went up over 2014

Energy

ESA average price indices Historical data, 2005-2014

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U Prices

Energy

Enrichment services

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Energy

Enrichments services deliveries

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Enrichment services

2014 2013 2014/2013

tSWU 12.524 11.678 7%

EUP tU 2.048 1.953 5% Uranium

feed tU 16.139 15.371 5% AV

enrichment

assay (%) 4,09 4,05 AV tails

assay (%) 0,24 0,24

Energy

Supplies to EU Utilities

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Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities

in

Share in Change in

quantities

over 2013

(%) 2014 (tSWU) 2014 (%) 2013

(tSWU)

2013 (%)

AREVA +

URENCO (EU) 8.503 68% 6.956 60% 22%

TENEX/TVEL

(Russia) 3.197 26% (includes 7% of

grandfathered)

4.249 36%

(includes 8,5% of

grandfathered) -25%

USEC (USA) 200 2% 354 3% -44%

Others 624 5% 119 1% 423%

Total 12.524 100% 11.678 100% 7%

Enrichment services

Energy

Percentage share of supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier, 2001 - 2014

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Enrichment services

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Others

USEC

TVEL/TENEX

EU

Energy

Security of supply

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Energy

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SECURITY OF SUPPLY

• Inventories • Diversification of supply • Forward thinking

Energy

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EU Uranium inventories, 2009 - 2014

Decrease of 3%

Cover 3 years of the EU gross reactor requirements

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2014

77%

57%

54%

48%

41%

37%

36%

35%

32%

20%

18%

17%

16%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

France

Slovakia

Hungary

Belgium

Sweden

Slovenia

Czech Republic

Finland

Bulgaria

Spain

Romania

United Kingdom

Germany

Netherlands Russian fuel deliveries

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU, 2015-2023

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

Thank you for your attention Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission EURATOM Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Cycle Observatory Sector e-mail: Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/euratom/index_en.html

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