espaÑol situación actual · during the second week of october, positive cases remain stable at...

Mexico Model updates for October 15, 2020

covid.healthdata.org Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

ESPAÑOL

Durante la segunda semana de octubre los casos positivos se mantienen estables en 4,600 por día y las muertes muestran una tendencia descendente. Las proyecciones que hace IHME de muertes acumuladas para el 1 de febrero de 2021 y estas aumentan a 134 mil, es decir, 849 más que las estimadas hace una semana para el 1 de febrero. Si se generaliza el uso de cubrebocas se salvarían 11 mil vidas al primero de febrero de 2021. Situación actual

• Los casos confirmados se mantienen relativamente constantes hasta finales durante el mes de septiembre y durante los primeros quince días de octubre muestran un ligero incremento (Figura 1).

• Las muertes diarias muestran una tendencia descendente desde el mes de agosto (Figura 2). Al 14 de octubre, COVID19 sigue siendo la primera causa de muerte a nivel nacional (Tabla 1).

• Las estimaciones de muertes en México por COVID19 acumuladas al 14 de octubre indican que más de 61% de ellas suceden entre 55 y 79 años.

• La R efectiva al 1 de octubre – basada en el análisis combinado de casos, hospitalizaciones y muertes – cambia con respecto a las estimaciones de la semana anterior. Son 5 estados con una R efectiva mayor a 1. Entre 1.0 y 1.04 se mantienen Sonora, Veracruz y Oaxaca; y de 1.05 a 1.11 sigue Baja California Sur, sumándose Guerrero a este grupo (Figura 3).

• Para el 12 de octubre se mantienen once estados con cifras de población infectada por COVID19 por encima de 27%: Campeche, Sonora, Tlaxcala, Aguascalientes, Baja California, Sinaloa y Tamaulipas (27-32.4%); Tabasco y Quintana Roo (32.5-37.9%) y la Ciudad de México con valores superiores a 43.5% (Figura 4).

• Debido al bajo número de pruebas realizadas, el número de casos positivos detectados representan 2.5% de la población infectada.

• La mortalidad diaria por COVID-19 para el 12 de octubre es mayor a cuatro por un millón de habitantes en ocho estados. Coahuila y Zacatecas presentan una tasa entre 4 y 4.9 por un millón de habitantes; Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa y Ciudad de México entre 5-5.9 por un millón; Colima, con una mortalidad de 7 a 7.9 y Baja California con una mortalidad por arriba de 8 por un millón (Figura 6).

Factores impulsores de las tendencias de transmisión (movilidad, uso de cubrebocas, pruebas y estacionalidad)

• La movilidad de la población sigue aumentando en todo el país en promedio. En algunos estados se ha mantenido como estaba en la última semana. Otros presentan movilidad similar a la que había en enero de 2020 entre ellos se encuentran: Durango y Zacatecas; con ligeramente menor movilidad que los anteriores están, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Querétaro y Michoacán. En contraste la movilidad es muy baja en la Ciudad de México, Yucatán y Quintana Roo (Figuras 8a y 8b).

• No hay cambios en el uso de mascarillas en comparación con la semana anterior. En promedio el 81% usa mascarilla al salir de casa en el país (Figura 9).

• México se mantiene como uno de los países que hace menos pruebas diagnósticas en comparación con los demás países de la región (Figura 10a). Al desagregar por estados se observa un desempeño muy pobre en todo el país y ligeramente mejor en Ciudad de México, Tabasco, Nuevo León, Coahuila, San Luis Potosí y Guanajuato (Figura 10b).

Proyecciones

• Nuestra proyección de muertes acumuladas para el 1 de febrero de 2021 es de 134 mil, es decir 849 más muertes de las estimadas la semana pasada para el 1 de febrero. Entre el 12 de octubre y el 1 de febrero se incrementarán 50 mil muertes. De aumentar el uso de mascarillas al 95% se pueden salvar, al primero de



febrero de 2021, 11 mil vidas si se compara con el escenario de referencia, reduciendo el número esperado de muertes en 8.5% (Figura 12).

• Las proyecciones de defunciones por día muestran un incremento a noviembre y después de esa fecha se mantendrán entre 420 y 460 muertes diarias hasta febrero de 2021, el peor escenario muestra 510 muertes al día y el mejor llegará a 280 (Figura 13).

• Con excepción de Baja California que requieren regresar a los mandatos en el mes de octubre, el resto de los estados no necesitan reimponer mandatos hasta febrero de 2021 (Figura 15).

• Se estima que para el 1 de febrero más de un tercio de los mexicanos estén infectados por COVID19. Chiapas será el único estado que para febrero de 2021 tendrá menos de 5% de la población infectada. En contraste, siete estados rebasarán 45% de la población infectada Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo y Ciudad de México (Figura 16).

• La tasa de mortalidad diaria para el 1 de febrero de 2021 en el país es muy heterogénea. Por abajo de 2 por 1 millón de habitantes se ubican Chiapas, Tlaxcala, Baja California, Estado de México, Tlaxcala y San Luis Potosí. En contraste, entre 5 y 5.9 por un millón de habitantes estarán el Veracruz, Oaxaca, Michoacán, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango y Chihuahua (Figura 17).

• Al terminar 2020, de acuerdo con las estimaciones de IHME, la primera causa de muerte será COVID-19 en México (Tabla 2).

• Ofrecemos una comparación de nuestros pronósticos con otros modelos que proporcionan actualizaciones periódicas y archivan sus resultados. Al comparar los pronósticos del pasado con lo que ha ocurrido, nuestro modelo tiene el error porcentual medio más bajo para las muertes acumuladas. Como muestra la Figura 18, nuestros pronósticos son marcadamente diferentes. Otros modelos importantes sugieren que la epidemia está llegando a su fin con una disminución de las muertes diarias hasta el final del año. Encontramos una fuerte correlación estadística de la R efectiva en los últimos 6 meses con el patrón semanal de muertes por neumonía visto en cada país o estado. Esta variable de estacionalidad combinada con nuestra predicción de que los mandatos continuarán disminuyendo durante las cuentas de otoño para nuestros pronósticos marcadamente diferentes.

Notas metodológicas

No hay actualizaciones importantes para nuestro modelo esta semana. Continuamos buscando evidencia sobre si la tasa de letalidad por infección (IFR por sus siglas en inglés) ha cambiado durante la pandemia. Hay un claro cambio hacia edades más jóvenes en los casos diagnosticados. Tan solo este cambio, debido a la dependencia de la edad de la IFR, reduciría la IFR para todas las edades, incluso si los tratamientos no hubieran mejorado. Sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución por edades de los casos confirmados puede deberse a la ampliación de la cobertura de pruebas diagnósticas. El análisis subsecuente de los datos sobre el tratamiento clínico individual y su resultado en salud, puede proporcionar una medida más directa de la situación COVID.

IHME desea agradecer calurosamente el apoyo de estos y otros que han hecho posible nuestros esfuerzos de estimación de COVID-19. Gracias.

Para ver todos los recursos de COVID-19 en IHME, visite http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Preguntas? ¿Peticiones? ¿Realimentación? Comuníquese con nosotros en https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgements

http://www.healthdata.org/covid

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us




ENGLISH

During the second week of October, positive cases remain stable at 4,600 per day and deaths show a downward trend. IHME’s projections of cumulative deaths for February 1, 2021, increased to 134,000, or 849 more than estimated one week ago for February 1. If the use of face masks becomes widespread, 11,000 lives would be saved by February 1, 2021.

Current situation

• Confirmed cases remain relatively constant until the end of September and show a slight increase during the first two weeks of October (Figure 1).

• Daily deaths have shown a downward trend since August (Figure 2). As of October 14, COVID-19 continues to be the leading cause of death at the national level (Table 1).

• Estimates of cumulative deaths in Mexico from COVID-19 as of October 14 indicate that more than 61% occur between the ages of 55 and 79.

• The effective R as of October 1 – based on the combined analysis of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths – changes from the previous week’s estimates. Sonora, Veracruz, and Oaxaca remain between 1.0 and 1.04, and Baja California Sur and Guerrero are between 1.05 and 1.11 (Figure 3).

• As of October 12, 11 states continue to have over 27% of the population infected with COVID-19: Campeche, Sonora, Tlaxcala, Aguascalientes, Baja California, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas (27–32.4%); Tabasco and Quintana Roo (32.5–37.9%); and Mexico City, with values above 43.5% (Figure 4).

• Due to the low number of tests performed, only about 2.5% of positive cases are detected. • Daily mortality from COVID-19 by October 12 is greater than 4 per 1 million inhabitants in eight states. Coahuila

and Zacatecas have a rate between 4 and 4.9 per million inhabitants; Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, and Mexico City between 5 and 5.9 per million; Colima between 7 and 7.9 per million, and Baja California above 8 per million (Figure 6).

Trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality)

• Population mobility continues to increase throughout the country on average. In some states it remained stable in the last week. Others have mobility similar to that of January 2020, including Durango and Zacatecas; and with slightly less mobility, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and Michoacán. In contrast, mobility is very low in Mexico City, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo (Figures 8a and 8b).

• There are no changes in mask use compared to the previous week. On average, 81% wear masks when leaving home in the country (Figure 9).

• Mexico remains one of the countries that performs fewer diagnostic tests compared to other countries in the region (Figure 10a). When disaggregating by states, very poor performance is observed throughout the country, though slightly better in Mexico City, Tabasco, Nuevo León, Coahuila, San Luis Potosí, and Guanajuato (Figure 10b).

Projections

• Our projection of cumulative deaths by February 1, 2021, is 134,000, which is 849 more deaths than last week’s estimate for February 1. Between October 12 and February 1, there will be an increase of 50,000 deaths. If mask use is increased to 95%, 11,000 lives can be saved by February 1, 2021, compared to the baseline scenario, reducing the expected number of deaths by 8.5% (Figure 12).



• Projections of deaths per day show an increase until November and then stabilizing between 420 and 460 deaths per day until February 2021, with the worst-case scenario showing 510 deaths per day and the best-case scenario reaching 280 (Figure 13).

• With the exception of Baja California, which requires a return to mandates in October, the rest of the states do not need to re-impose mandates until February 2021 (Figure 15).

• It is estimated that by February 1, more than a third of Mexicans will be infected with COVID-19. Chiapas will be the only state that by February 2021 will have less than 5% of its population infected. In contrast, seven states will exceed 45% of the population infected: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, and Mexico City (Figure 16).

• The daily mortality rate for February 1, 2021, in the country is very heterogeneous. A rate below 2 per 1 million inhabitants is observed in Chiapas, Tlaxcala, Baja California, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, and San Luis Potosí. In contrast, between 5 and 5.9 per million inhabitants is observed in Veracruz, Oaxaca, Michoacán, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Chihuahua (Figure 17).

• At the end of 2020, according to IHME estimates, the leading cause of death in Mexico will be COVID-19 (Table 2).

• We offer a comparison of our forecasts with other models that provide periodic updates and archive their results. When comparing past forecasts with what has happened, our model has the lowest average percentage error for cumulative deaths. As Figure 18 shows, our forecasts are markedly different. Other important models suggest that the epidemic is coming to an end, with a decrease in daily deaths until the end of the year. We found a strong statistical correlation of effective R in the last six months with the weekly pattern of pneumonia deaths seen in each country or state. This seasonality variable, combined with our prediction that mandates will continue to decline during the fall, accounts for our markedly different forecasts.

Model updates

There are no major updates to our model this week. We continue to search for evidence on whether the infection-fatality rate (IFR) has changed during the pandemic. There is a clear shift to younger ages in diagnosed cases. This shift alone would – because of the age dependence of the IFR – reduce the all-age IFR even if treatments have not improved. However, the shift in the age distribution of confirmed cases may be due to the scale-up in testing capacity. Analysis underway of data on individual clinical treatments and outcomes may provide a more direct measure of whether the IFR by age has changed. If the IFR has declined, this would alter our forecasted death rates; to date, however, we have not been able to find sufficient evidence to support this change to our model.

IHME wishes to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible. Thank you.

For all COVID-19 resources at IHME, visit http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Questions? Requests? Feedback? Please contact us at https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgements

http://www.healthdata.org/covid


Mexico MODEL UPDATES

COVID-19 Results Briefing: Mexico

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

October 15, 2020

This briefing contains summary i nformation on t he l atest projections f rom t he IHME model on COVID-19 in Mexico. The model was run on October 13, 2020.

Model updates

Updates to the model this week include additional data on deaths, cases, and updates on covariates.

covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Mexico CURRENT SITUATION

Current situation

Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctMonth

Cou

nt

Daily cases



Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deathsof non-COVID causes throughout the year

Cause name Weekly deaths RankingCOVID-19 2,615 1Ischemic heart disease 2,044 2Diabetes mellitus 1,420 3Chronic kidney disease 1,395 4Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases 891 5Stroke 729 6Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 630 7Interpersonal violence 590 8Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 455 9Lower respiratory infections 434 10

Figure 2a. Reported daily COVID-19 deaths and smoothed trend estimate. Points shown are reporteddeaths, line and ribbon represent estimate with uncertainty.

0

300

600

900

1,200

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Dai

ly d

eath

s



Figure 2b. Estimated cumulative deaths by age group

0

5

10

<5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 99Age group

Sha

re o

f cum

ulat

ive

deat

hs, %

Figure 3. Mean effective R on October 01, 2020. The estimate of effective R is based on the combinedanalysis of deaths, case reporting and hospitalizations where available. Current reported cases reflect infections11-13 days prior so estimates of effective R can only be made for the recent past. Effective R less than 1means that transmission should decline all other things being held the same.

<0.79

0.79−0.83

0.84−0.88

0.89−0.94

0.95−0.99

1−1.04

1.05−1.1

1.11−1.15

1.16−1.2

>=1.21



Figure 4. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on October 12, 2020

<5

5−10.4

10.5−15.9

16−21.4

21.5−26.9

27−32.4

32.5−37.9

38−43.4

43.5−48.9

>=49

Figure 5. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported COVID-19cases to estimated COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model.

0

5

10

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Per

cent

of i

nfec

tions

det

ecte

d

Argentina Peru Colombia Mexico Brazil



Figure 6. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on October 12, 2020

<1

1 to 1.9

2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9

5 to 5.9

6 to 6.9

7 to 7.9

>=8


Mexico CRITICAL DRIVERS

Critical drivers

Table 2. Current mandate implementation

All

gath

erin

gs r

estr

icte

d

All

none

ssen

tial b

usin

esse

s cl

osed

Any

bus

ines

ses

rest

ricte

d

Mas

k us

e

Sch

ool c

losu

re

Sta

y ho

me

orde

r

Trav

el li

mits

ZacatecasYucatán

Veracruz de Ignacio de la LlaveTlaxcala

TamaulipasTabascoSonoraSinaloa

San Luis PotosíQuintana Roo

QuerétaroPuebla

OaxacaNuevo León

NayaritMéxico

MorelosMichoacán de Ocampo

Mexico CityJalisco

HidalgoGuerrero

GuanajuatoDurango

ColimaCoahuila

ChihuahuaChiapas

CampecheBaja California Sur

Baja CaliforniaAguascalientes

Mandate in place No mandate



Figure 7. Total number of social distancing mandates (including mask use)

ZacatecasYucatán

Veracruz de Ignacio de la LlaveTlaxcala

TamaulipasTabascoSonoraSinaloa

San Luis PotosíQuintana Roo

QuerétaroPuebla

OaxacaNuevo León

NayaritMéxico

MorelosMichoacán de Ocampo

Mexico CityJalisco

HidalgoGuerrero

GuanajuatoDurango

ColimaCoahuila

ChihuahuaChiapas

CampecheBaja California Sur

Baja CaliforniaAguascalientes

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

# of mandates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mandate imposition timing



Figure 8a. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Per

cent

red

uctio

n fr

om a

vera

ge m

obili

ty


Figure 8b. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline(percent) on October 12, 2020

=<−50

−49 to −45

−44 to −40

−39 to −35

−34 to −30

−29 to −25

−24 to −20

−19 to −15

−14 to −10

>−10



Figure 9a. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home

0

25

50

75


Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n


Figure 9b. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on October12, 2020

<45%

45 to 49%

50 to 54%

55 to 59%

60 to 64%

65 to 69%

70 to 74%

75 to 79%

80 to 84%

>=85



Figure 10a. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people

0

25

50

75


Test

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


Figure 10b. COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on October 05, 2020

<5

5 to 9.9

10 to 24.9

25 to 49

50 to 149

150 to 249

250 to 349

350 to 449

450 to 499

>=500



Figure 11. Increase in the risk of death due to pneumonia on February 1 compared to August 1

<−80%

−80 to −61%

−60 to −41%

−40 to −21%

−20 to −1%

0 to 19%

20 to 39%

40 to 59%

60 to 79%

>=80%


Mexico PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS

Projections and scenarios

We produce three scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what wethink is most likely to happen. We assume that if the daily mortality rate from COVID-19 reaches 8 permillion, social distancing (SD) mandates will be re-imposed. The mandate easing scenario is what wouldhappen if governments continue to ease social distancing mandates with no re-imposition. The universal maskmandate scenario is what would happen if mask use increased immediately to 95% and social distancingmandates were re-imposed at 8 deaths per million.

Figure 12. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

0

50,000

100,000

0

30

60

90

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

Cum

ulat

ive

deat

hsC

umulative deaths per 100,000

Continued SD mandate easing

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Fig 13. Daily COVID-19 deaths until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

0

200

400

600

0.0

0.2

0.4


Dai

ly d

eath

sD

aily deaths per 100,000


Reference scenario

Universal mask use



Fig 14. Daily COVID-19 infections until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

0

50

100

150


Dai

ly in

fect

ions

Daily infections per 100,000


Reference scenario

Universal mask use



Fig 15. Month of assumed mandate re-implementation. (Month when daily death rate passes 8 per million,when reference scenario model assumes mandates will be re-imposed.)

October

November

December

JanuaryNo mandates before Feb 1



Figure 16. Forecasted percent infected with COVID-19 on February 01, 2021

<5

5−10.4

10.5−15.9

16−21.4

21.5−26.9

27−32.4

32.5−37.9

38−43.4

43.5−48.9

>=49

Figure 17. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million forecasted on February 01, 2021 in the reference scenario

<1

1 to 1.9

2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9

5 to 5.9

6 to 6.9

7 to 7.9

>=8



Figure 18. Comparison of reference model projections with other COVID modeling groups. For thiscomparison, we are including projections of daily COVID-19 deaths from other modeling groups when avail-able: Delphi from the Massachussets Institute of Technology (Delphi; https://www.covidanalytics.io/home),Imperial College London (Imperial; https://www.covidsim.org), The Los Alamos National Laboratory(LANL; https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/), the SI-KJalpha model from the University of Southern Cal-ifornia (SIKJalpha; https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19), and Youyang Gu (YYG; https://covid19-projections.com/). Daily deaths from other modeling groups are smoothed to remove inconsistencieswith rounding. Regional values are aggregates from availble locations in that region.

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

Nov Dec Jan FebDate

Dai

ly d

eath

s

Models

IHME

Delphi

Imperial

LANL

SIKJalpha

YYG


https://www.covidanalytics.io/home

https://www.covidsim.org

https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/

https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19

https://covid19-projections.com/

https://covid19-projections.com/


Table 3. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality in the full year 2020. Deaths fromCOVID-19 are projections of cumulative deaths on Jan 1, 2021 from the reference scenario. Deaths fromother causes are from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (rounded to the nearest 100).

Cause name Annual deaths RankingCOVID-19 118,798 1Ischemic heart disease 106,300 2Diabetes mellitus 73,800 3Chronic kidney disease 72,500 4Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases 46,300 5Stroke 37,900 6Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 32,800 7Interpersonal violence 30,700 8Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 23,700 9Lower respiratory infections 22,600 10

Mask data source: Premise; Facebook Global symptom survey (This research is based on survey resultsfrom University of Maryland Social Data Science Center) and the Facebook United States symptom survey(in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University); Kaiser Family Foundation; YouGov COVID-19 BehaviourTracker survey.

A note of thanks:

We would like to extend a special thanks to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) for keydata sources; our partners and collaborators in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, theDominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Panama, Peru,the Philippines, Russia, Serbia, South Korea, Turkey, and Ukraine for their support and expert advice; andto the tireless data collection and collation efforts of individuals and institutions throughout the world.

In addition, we wish to express our gratitude for efforts to collect social distancing policy information inLatin America to University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Felicia Knaul, MichaelTouchton), with data published here: http://observcovid.miami.edu/; Fundación Mexicana para la Salud(Héctor Arreola-Ornelas) with support from the GDS Services International: Tómatelo a Pecho A.C.; andCentro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Anáhuac (Héctor Arreola-Ornelas); Lab onResearch, Ethics, Aging and Community-Health at Tufts University (REACH Lab) and the University ofMiami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Thalia Porteny).

Further, IHME is grateful to the Microsoft AI for Health program for their support in hosting our COVID-19data visualizations on the Azure Cloud. We would like to also extend a warm thank you to the many otherswho have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible.


http://observcovid.miami.edu/

espaÑol situación actual · during the second week of october, positive cases remain stable at...

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