ESPON 2.1.1

Territorial Impact of EU Transport and TEN Policies

Nils Schneekloth / Roberta Capello

ESPON Seminar

October 6

Matera,Italy

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Spatial impact of transport and ICT policies

Transport policies have an impact on the spatial structure of the economy through

- affecting costs and times for freight

- affecting costs and times for passenger travel

Relevant policies are

- infrastructure investments

- pricing policies (charging of infrastructure, fuel taxation, taxation of car and truck operation) 

- regulation/deregulation

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ICT policies have an impact on the spatial structure of the economy through

- affecting the ICT infrastructure and, hence, ICT supply

- affecting adoption capabilities and, hence, ICT demand and the actual use of knowledge and information

- affecting locations of the ICT service industry

Relevant policies are

- ICT infrastructure policies

- education, training and ICT adoption support policies

- ICT's service promotion policies

Spatial impact of transport and ICT policies

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CGEurope model structure

Main features

Spatial price equilibrium Final demand represented by utility maximizing household

Production presented by profit maximizing firms

Income-expenditure loop is closed

Production is diversified, with different varieties produced at different locations

Firms and households choose supply sources according to relative prices, which include interregional transfer costs

International trade imposes extra costs on trade due to international and cultural impediments

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How do policies enter ?

Freight cost changes affect prices in respective origins and destinations directly and prices in other locations indirectly

Generalised travel cost changes affect costs of communication between suppliers and customers, which in turn affect returns in the origin and costs in the destination directly and prices in other locations indirectly

Higher output prices, lower input prices or lower costs of business travel of firms translate into higher factor incomes and, hence, higher households‘ utility

Lower consumer goods prices reduce the price index and, hence, increase households‘ utility

CGEurope model structure

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SASI model structure

Change oftravel time, change of travel costs

Change of Accessibility

Quasiproduction function

Change of GDP per capita

Change of employment

Change of unemployment

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Summary of transport policy scenarios

Policy scenario

Scenario characteristics

Infrastructure

(retrospective)

A1 Implementation of all rail projects 1991-2001

A2 Implementation of all road projects 1991-2001

A3 Implementation of all projects (road, rail) 1991-2001

Infrastructure B1 Implementation of all most probable rail projects 2001-2021

B2 Implementation of all most probable road projects 2001-2021

B3 Implementation of all most probable projects (road, rail) 2001-2021

Pricing C1 Reduction of the price of rail transport

C2 Rise of the price of road transport

C3 Additional pricing of all modes

Pricing and infrastructure

D Implementation of all most probable projects and additional pricing of all modes (B3+C3)

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Outcomes of the TIA

Results by NUTS-3 region

Comparison of „with“ and „without“ for 10 scenarios:

– Change of regional welfare, equivalent income measure

– Change of GDP per capita

– Change of accessibility

– Change of employment

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10

11

12

13

14

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CGEurope: Aggregated Effects by Policy Scenario, Percent of 1997 GDP

  A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D

EU27+2 0.031 0.250 0.292 0.117 0.174 0.280 0.044 -0.276 -0.342 -0.050

EU15 0.032 0.253 0.296 0.121 0.160 0.269 0.044 -0.284 -0.350 -0.068

CC12 0.030 0.239 0.281 0.069 0.503 0.589 0.042 -0.273 -0.330 0.274

 

CGEurope: Correlation of GDP per Capita and Relative Welfare Impact

Indicator GDP/capita cohesion effects (+/–)

1991-2001 2001-2021

A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D

Coefficient of variation 0 + + + + + 0 – – +

Gini coefficient 0 + + + + + 0 – – +

Geometric/arithmetic mean 0 + + 0 + + 0 – – +

Correlation, relative 0 + + 0 ++ ++ 0 –– – ++

+/++ Weak/strong cohesion effect: disparities are reduced –/–– Weak/strong anti-cohesion effect: disparities are increased –/+ Short term anti-cohesion and long-term cohesion effect 0 Little or no effect 

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SASI model: GDP/capita cohesion effects

+/++ Weak/strong cohesion effect: disparities are reduced –/–– Weak/strong anti-cohesion effect: disparities are increased –/+ Short term anti-cohesion and long-term cohesion effect 0 Little or no effect 

Indicator GDP/capita cohesion effects (+/–)

1991-2001 2001-2021

A1 A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 D

Coefficient of variation – + + + + + – – – –/+

Gini coefficient – + + + + + – – – –/+

Geometric/arithmetic mean – + + + + + – – – –

Correlation, relative – –/++ ++ + + ++ – – – +

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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies

Available results:– maps on

• accessibility absolute growth rate

• Internet absolute growth rate

• pc GDP average annual growth rate

(at 2020 in the three scenarios)

– cohesion indicators

• Lorenz curves

• Gini coefficients

• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual growth

– typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact

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STIMA model structure

Change ofICTs investments

Change of ICTs endowment

Quasiproduction function

Change of GDP per capita

Change of absolute GDP

Change of virtual accessibility

Change in regional disparities

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Data

Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial data on ICTs

– at Nuts 3: no availability

– at Nuts 2: EOS Gallup Survey 1999

• survey conducted in households in the 15 Countries of the European Union

• data collected through face-to-face interviews

• by means of a quantitative questionnaire

• on a representative sample in each Member State

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EOS Gallup sample

Country Sampling Plan Real Sample Nuts level used for sampling

Belgique 2000 1961 NUTS 1

Danmark 2000 2060 NUTS 3

Deutschland 5000 5139 NUTS 1

Ellada 2000 2000 NUTS 2

España 5000 5000 NUTS 2

France 5000 5301 NUTS 1

Ireland 1400 1397 NUTS 3

Italia 5000 5134 NUTS 1

Luxembourg 1000 1009 NUTS 1

Nederland 2000 2037 NUTS 1

Österreich 2000 2000 NUTS 1

Portugal 2000 2138 NUTS 2

Finland 2000 2002 NUTS 2

Sverige 2000 1951 NUTS 2

United Kingdom 5150 5211 NUTS 1

Total 43550 44340

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Scenario Hypotheses

Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional distribution of EU ICTs investments

– among regions

• lagging vs advanced

– among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG Information

society)

• accessibility

• internet connections

• high-tech employment

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Distribution of ICTs investments according to different ICTs policies scenarios

ICTs Scenarios Regions ICTs Policies

Scenario AIndiscriminate scenario

All regions Investments distributed according toregional population

All regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment

Lagging regions 20% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation

Lagging regions 70% Accessibility30% Internet

Scenario BEfficiency scenario

Non lagging regions 80% of total InvestmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of non lagging regionspopulation

Non lagging regions 30% Accessibility70% Internet

Scenario CCohesion scenario

Lagging regions 100% of total investmentsInvestments distributed according tothe share of lagging regionspopulation

Lagging regions 33% Accessibility33% Internet33% High tech employment

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Forecasting methodology

2% of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU member states

estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in accessibility, internet connections and high-tech employment

forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in 20 years

cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini coefficient)

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Scenario A: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Scenario B: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Scenario C: pc GDP average annual growth rate

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Cohesion indicators

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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact

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Framework for Horizontal Policy Analysis

Opportunities

Risks

Transport Policy

Regional, Structural

and Cohesion Policies

Environmental Policies

CAP Internal Market and Competition

Policies

Stability and Growth Policies

ESDP

Implementing White Paper on Transport Policy

+++

---

++

--

+++

--

++

--

++

-

+

-

+++

---

Implementing Transport TENs

++

--

+++

---

+++

---

+

-

++

-

+

-

+++

---

Implementing GALILEO

+++

--

++

--

++

-

+

-

+

-

+

-

++

--

Implementing ICT guidelines

++

-

+++

--

++

--

+

-

++

-

+

-

++

--

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Impact strength

Reference to EU TENs policy +

Reference to infrastructure charging -

Reference to ESDP: polycentricity, accessibility etc. ++

Environmental priorities ++

Reference to cohesion +

Reference to competitiveness --

Link to other sectoral policies, e.g. agriculture, energy, etc -

Reference to macro and stability policies --

Concern with missing links: international/national +

Framework for regional/urban transport policies -

EU/National Policy Interaction Summary

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Conclusions and Policy recommendations

Transport policies have only small effects compared to macro trends

Large increases in regional accessibility transform into small changes in regional economic activity

Regions in the periphery especially with underdeveloped transport and ICT networks are most positively affected by investments in infrastructure

Past and future transport infrastructure policies show positive impact on cohesion in EU-27

Uniform pricing policies have a slightly negative impact on cohesion in EU-27

ICT policies can have a considerable effect on spatial development depending on the way of implementation (balanced vs concentrated)

Transport policies in peripheral regions may weaken agglomeration advantages, whereas ICT policies are supposed to be generally growth enhancing and improve peripheral access to information and communication

Comprehensive transport policy must be a coherent single policy in Europe, not a menu from which each member can pick

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Further Research Cross-validation of results of SASI and CGEurope

Refinement of regional production function of SASI model

Inclusion of maritime transport and inland waterway in CGEurope and SASI

Causality analysis of regional production and accessibility

Model refinement of STIMA according to data availability

Model integration of SASI and STIMA

Polycentricity, operational measurement concept

Analysis of overloaded corridors, depending on data availability from external sources

Polycentric connectivity

Qualitative analysis of specific policies