ESRC Seminar, Keele University, 11th November 2009

What migration statistics can and can’t tell us: implications for labour market

analysis

Anne E. Green

Tel: 024 7652 4113 Anne.Green@warwick.ac.uk

Institute for Employment ResearchUniversity of Warwick

UK: key data sources• No single data source provides comprehensive information on

geographical mobility• No population registration system – but elsewhere failure to deregister

causes problems in measuring migration

• Survey and census sources International Passenger Survey (IPS) – measures flows of people

entering and leaving the UK Estimates of Total International Migration – estimates of immigration and

emigration Census of Population – decennial, no information on emigrants Labour Force Survey – weaker on short-term than long-term movers ad hoc local surveys – no comprehensive sampling frame

• Administrative sources National Insurance numbers registered to overseas nationals Worker Registration Scheme (covering A8 countries) – but not everyone

registers

• Local surveys How representative are they?

LGA resource guide:

Strategic importance of migration (1)Definitional issues Lack of clarity leads to confusion

UN definition: an ‘international’ migrant is someone who changes his or her country of residence for at least a year; interest in short-term migrants also

Country of birth: remains consistent for each individual

Nationality: more fluid – individuals can change nationality and UK nationals can hold more than one nationality

Legislative and policy framework

Sets context for legal migration to UK

EU freedom of movement: cross-border mobility for EU citizens

Tightening of controls at borders of EU

Points Based System (PBS): to manage migration from outside the EEA – previously work permits

Other routes: Asylum route; Students; Family reunion; Illegal migration

Blurring between different types of mobilityShort-term international mobility is an increasingly important aspect of workers’ mobility alongside conventional ‘permanent’ relocation

High Type of production-related move

Circulation - Daily

Commuting

Long distance (weekly) commuting

Circulation – at least one (usually several) overnight stays

SHORT-TERM

ASSIGNMENTS / MOBILITY

Fre

quen

cy o

f m

ove

men

t

Permanent Relocation

Labour Migration (intra- and inter-

organisational moves)

Low

Duration of move

High

Strategic importance of migration (2)International migration to and from the UK,

1997-2006 (source: ONS, TIM)

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

inward

outward

net inward

Strategic importance of migration (3) Migrant workers and the labour market

Recent focus of attention on A8 migrants

Labour market impacts: positive or negative

Consensus to date: migrant workers complement the local labour force rather than substitute for it

Employers and migrants as ‘gainers’ from migration

Uneven sectoral distribution of migrant workers

Uneven occupational distribution

Role of changing economic conditions – downturn in in-flows of A8 migrants

Impacts on cohesion: ‘recessionary racism’

Key sources of information and intelligence (1)

Introduction No single data source provides comprehensive

information on migration at national, regional and local levels – hence need to refer to a variety of sources and triangulate the findings

Official data provide a consistent overview across local areas

Local surveys and records fill gaps in knowledge – but inconsistencies across local areas because of use of different methodologies

Qualitative intelligence from local stakeholders supplements information from other sources

Key sources (2)Generic issues

Establishing migrant definitions and the coverage of data sources

Stocks and flows Stocks: number of

migrants in a local area at a particular snapshot in time

Flows: moves ‘in’ and ‘out’; ‘gross’ and ‘net’

Better information on in-flows than on out-flows

Residence and workplace issues

Are data on a residence- or a workplace- basis? (interpret alongside trends for neighbouring areas)Ongoing developments in data sources

Changes in policy, legislation, migration, recording systems

New developments – e.g. e-borders, UKSA report

Who is measured in counts of migrant stocks?

• The most mobile groups are the most difficult to capture in statistical data sources and shorter duration moves are more difficult to capture than longer duration ones

x

x

Time

x

x

x

y

y

y

y

y

X = start of moveY = end of move

Individuals

T1 T2 T3

Time

x

x

x

y

y

y

y

y

X = start of moveY = end of move

Individuals

T1 T2 T3

A

B

C

D

E

Individuals’ contribution to a stock estimate of short-term moves

Key sources (3)ONS statistics on international migration

IPS - International Passenger Survey

Only source measuring people entering and leaving the UK

does not include all migrants (e.g. excludes most asylum seekers)

only a sample interviewed based on initial intentions no sub-regional data

Total International Migration (TIM)

Use of IPS to derive estimates of long-term immigration and emigration nationally

used in production of local mid year population estimates

International Migration and Population Statistics Programme (imps) –new methods for allocation of international migrants

Key sources (4)‘Official’ Census and Survey sources

Census of Population comprehensive coverage

and disaggregation to micro areas

decennial captures migration in the

year before the Census country of birth

2011: new questions on: month/year of entry to UK intended length of stay citizenship English language ability

LFS / APS detailed quarterly data –

including country of birth, when came to UK, nationality, economic activity, employment

difficult to cover the most mobile elements of the population in a survey

has been used to estimate the regional labour market impact of new migration upon employment and wages

Median wage growth in migrant dense occupations in the East Midlands (LFS 2001-06)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ICT Professionals

Health Professionals

Architects, Town Planners, Surveyors

Public Service Professionals

Health Associate Professionals

Metal Forming, Welding And Related Trades

Healthcare And Related Personal Services

Customer Service Occupations

Process Operatives

Assemblers And Routine Operatives

Transport Drivers And Operatives

Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives

Elementary Process Plant Occupations

Elementary Personal Services Occupations

Elementary Cleaning Occupations

Elementary Security Occupations

Professional Other Operative and elementary occupations

Employment growth in migrants dense industries in the East Midlands (LFS 2001-06)

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Food, beverage manufacture

Textile manufacture

Clothing, fur manufacture

Rubber, plastic products manufacture

Other non-metallic products manufacture

Radio, TV, communication eqt. manufacture

Other transport eqt. manufacture

Wholesale trade

Hotels, restaurants

Transport by land

Auxiliary transport activities

Other business activities

Health, social Work

Activities of membership organisations

employment growth (percent per annum)

UK-born migrant

WM: Migrant dense sectors & occupations:

increasing migrant density → segmentation

Migrant dense industries Manufacturing Hotels & restaurants Transport Health & social workEmployment change: Manufacturing – overall

employment decline decreasing employment for UK

nationals, increasing employment for migrants

Hotels & restaurants, Health & social work - growth in employment for UK nationals and migrants, but faster growth for migrants

Vulnerability of migrant dense sectors

and occupations Health professionals Health Associate occupations Healthcare, related personal service Assemblers, routine operatives Elementary cleaning occupations Process operativesEmployment change:

• Health and related occupations - growth in employment for UK nationals and migrants, but faster growth for migrants

• Process, plant & machine operatives and elementary occupations - decreasing employment for UK nationals, increasing employment for migrants

Key sources (5)Administrative sources (1)

General Provide up-to-date

information at local level Coverage of each source

depends on regulations and practices associated with it

Do not identify when a person leaves the UK

National Insurance Numbers (NINos) allocated to overseas nationals

NINo generally required by an individual looking to work or claim benefits

Disaggregation by gender, age and nationality (all) to local authority level

Good proxy for arrivals and economically active

NINo Registrations to Overseas Nationals entering the UK: EAST MIDLANDS

by world area of origin

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2002 2007

thou

sand

s

Unknown

Australasia & Oceania

Americas

Asia & Middle East

Africa

Other European

EU Accession

EU15

Key sources (6)Administrative sources (2)

Worker Registration Scheme (WRS)

Covers A8 migrants Self-employed are not

required to register Disaggregation by

nationality, age, gender, wage rate, ‘sector’ and ‘occupation’ (non standard), planned duration of stay, dependants

No requirement for workers to deregister

Largely workplace based

Work Permits and the PBS Permits specific to a

particular individual in a particular job

Employer applies for permit

Work permit data disaggregated by gender, age, nationality, ‘sector’ and ‘occupation’ (non standard)

Workplace based PBS – 5 tiers (no data as

yet)

WRS, 2004-2006 Work permits, 2005

Key sources (7)Registration and use of local services (1)

Introduction Measurements of

‘migration’ using such sources vary according to:

Remit of the service provided

Propensity of migrants to make use of that service

Registering with a GP Patient Data Registration

System (PRDS) New registrations are

given a flag 4 status if the previous address is outside the UK; this is ‘lost’ with subsequent registrations

Age and gender recorded Includes children Whether and when

migrants register

Key sources (8)

Pupil Census data Count of pupils in

maintained schools in England

Unique Pupil Number (UPN) – details of age, gender, ethnicity, first language, full postcode

Provides indication of settlement patterns of migrants with children (using a proxy of first language other than English)

Local surveys Supplement official

statistics and administrative sources

Can provide information and intelligence on migrants’

motivations, intentions, aspirations

experience of living and working in UK

use and need for services

Key sources (10) Issues in undertaking local surveys

No comprehensive sampling frame How to recruit the sample – various methods may not be representative of the population subject to (unknown) sampling error patterns and tendencies shown may vary over time Survey methodology – different biases: face-to-face interviews Web surveys self-completion questionnaires Focus groups Diaries and blogs Longitudinal approaches

Key sources (11) Other sources of local intelligence

Local authorities Trade Unions Employment agencies and

other labour market intermediaries

Employers and Chambers of Commerce

Libraries Migrants’ food shops Citizens Advice Bureaux Churches and other faith-

based organisations Private landlords, housing

associations, estate agents

Churches and other faith-based organisations

Private landlords, housing associations, estate agents

Community groups and organisations serving new arrivals and more established migrants

Police, community wardens Fire Service Colleges Schools Hospitals, health centres Transport providers

Using migration data (1)

Generic issues: how the data were

collected (data collection methodology)

why the data were collected (rationale for data collection)

how information is recorded

Key questions: who is covered / not

covered by the data set? when does the

information relate to? where are individuals

recorded? what is the context for

data collection (e.g. legal requirement, administrative process, voluntary registration)

Using migration data (2) Bringing data together

Example of Herefordshire ‘official’ survey and administrative sources SAWS data Agricultural Census annual surveys of farmers Housing section of local authority,

Homelessness Team

What ‘official’ and administrative sources can tell us

Economic position Sector Occupation Calculations of migrant

density Labour market

segmentation Earnings GVA contribution

Migrants’ position vis-à-vis non-migrants

Country of birth Nationality Date of entry to UK Age Gender Household characteristics

Trends over time

What ‘official’ and administrative sources can’t tell us

Motivations of migrants Insights into process ‘Lived experience’ of

migrants Limited information on

illegal working / vulnerability / exploitation

English language ability (but in 2011 Census)

Limited longitudinal perspective (5 quarters of LFS/APS)

Limited information on emigration

Issue of short-term movements

Limited information on demand side (i.e. from employers – although NESS provides context)

How jobs were obtained

Migrant workers in the West Midlands:Migrants’ motivations Employers’ motivations

Overwhelmingly economic

• Most important reason for migration was to work/ find a job/ earn money:

62% of sample 75% of those not working prior

to coming to the UK

“Money is the most important thing. But not only of course.”

Other reasons all less important: learning English study join family

Exploration

Careers across boundaries

To address labour shortages –

• 28% - a migrant worker was the most suitable applicant

• 20% - migrant workers are more willing to do this type of work

• 16% - migrant workers work harder

• 14% - people from the UK are not interested in doing this type of work

• 13% - overall lack of applicants

Mainly employed to meet ‘steady demand throughout the year’ (64%)

Employers’ descriptors of migrant workers:(evidence from the South East)

better-workers do-a-good-job extra-hours flexible friendly

get-on-with-the-job good-skills

good-workers

hard-workers

loyal respect-for-the-job

skilled-workers skills

very-hard-workers

willing-to-learn willing-to-work

willing-to-work-longer-hours

work-harder

BUT drawbacks of qualitative / local studies … and other issues

Limited information on broader labour market context

Constraints on size of surveys – issues of generalising from a limited number of cases

How representative?

• Shortcomings in ‘official’ and administrative statistics also

• Access to administrative data becoming more problematic

• Free movement – why count?

• Value of mixed methods