ESSENTIAL DATA FOR ADMISSIONS ADVISERS

September, 2011Reuben Ternes, OIRA

OVERVIEW

Presentation in 6 Parts Introduction to OIRA Part I: FTIAC Growth Part II: Recruitment Data Part III: The Importance of Transfer Students Part IV: Comparing OU to National Data Part V: Academic Success Indicators

WHAT DOES OIRA DO?

Tracks and projects enrollment Reports to federal agencies (IPEDS) Official record keeper for large amounts of

university data Analyzes policy decisions

i.e. Is it a good policy to encourage students to take 16 credits their first semester, regardless of their ACT score? What will happen to our retention rates if we change our admission requirements?

Reports graduation rates, retention rates, etc.

Gathers and reports on various student surveys.

…and much much more…

OIRA WEBSITE

www.oakland.edu/OIRA Lots of potentially useful info on the website:

New student profiles Enrollment data, current and historical Ad hoc reports Retention and Graduation Rate Data NSSE Data Assessment data and links PowerPoint Presentations (including this one)

FTIAC GROWTH

Part I

HISTORICAL FTIACS NUMBERS 1998 - 2011

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1530

1813188819051868

210120532213228723402350

246623112361

FTIACs

?

CHALLENGES TO FTIAC GROWTH

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

Projected New Undergraduate (FTIACs) by Year

Goal Pace (25,000 by 2020)Pace Assuming No Changes (Steady State)

We are here.

UNDERSTANDING THE PROJECTIONS

There are two major obstacles responsible for the gap between the 2020 goal and the steady state projections 1). High School Demographics 2). Current Market Share

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201950,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

NCES Projections of Michigan High School Graduates 2008 - 2019

2010 OU-FTIACS BY COUNTY

County of Origin % of 2010 FTIAC Cohort

Oakland 41.2%

Macomb 31.2%

Wayne 11.2%

Genesee 2.2%

Lapeer 2.1%

St. Clair 1.4%

Every Where Else 8.3%

MARKET SHARE, 2010 VS. 2004

Market Share

County 2010 2004

Oakland 14% 14%

Macomb 24% 22%

Wayne 4% 4%

FTIAC GROWTH: GOOD AND BAD NEWS

Bad News for FTIAC Enrollment High school graduates are down

We will need to do more with less Over 80% of our FTIACs come from only 3

counties Our market share in other counties is low and/or non-

existent.

The Good News for FTIAC Enrollment The decline in projected high school students is

slightly less severe in Oakland and Macomb counties (at least for the next few years).

These are the counties where we have the highest market share.

RECRUITMENT DATA

Part II

HIGH SCHOOLS WITH MOST FTIACSTop 22 Feeder High Schools for Fall 2010

Rank Name Apps Rank Name Apps

1 Eisenhower Senior High School 90 12 Troy High School 37

2 Adlai E Stevenson High School 81 13 Chippewa Valley High School 36

3 Lake Orion Community High School 72 14 Brandon High School 36

4 Dakota High School 54 15 Sterling Heights High School 35

5 Utica High School 51 16 Oxford High School 31

6 Rochester High School 50 17 Avondale Senior High School 31

7 Clarkston Senior High School 46 18 Fraser High School 29

8 Henry Ford II High School 45 19 De La Salle Collegiate High

School 29

9 Athens High School 44 20 Waterford Kettering High School 27

10 Romeo High School 39 21 Paul K. Cousino Senior High School 27

11 Rochester Adams High School 39 22 Royal Oak High School 26

YIELD BY HS GPA

Yield: the probability that an applicant will enroll.

Many variables are correlated with yield HS GPA ACT scores Plus many others.

The relationship between HS GPA and yield follows a non-obvious (and non-linear) pattern.

YIELD BY HS GPA FOR FALL 2010

SWITCHING FOCUS: THE ROLE OF THE TRANSFER STUDENT

Part III

PART III: TRANSFER DATA

New students = FTIACs + New Transfers 2311 new FTIACs in 2010 1825 new transfer students in 2010

This Year: FTIACs up 3% Transfers up 5% Official count is not until the end of September,

so these numbers may fluctuate.

WHERE DO OUR TRANSFER STUDENTS COME FROM?

Campus Name FA10 New X-fers

Macomb Cmty Coll Center Campus 287

Oakland Cmty College 202

OCC - Auburn Hills Campus 189

Macomb Cmty Coll South Campus 77

OCC – Highland Lakes Campus 58

OCC – Royal Oak Campus 50

OCC – Orchard Ridge Campus 48

Charles S Mott Cmty College 46

Wayne State University 46

Michigan State University 40

TRANSFER STUDENT PROFILE (FALL 2009)

Approximately 66% come from 2-year colleges while 33% come from 4-year institutions.

Over 25% were under the age of 22. 32% are over the age of 26.

63% were full-time. Most students had a GPA of a 2.5 or higher

from their former institution. Half had a GPA of 3.0 or higher.

SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES: COMPARING OU TO NATIONAL DATA

Part IV

SURVEYS OU has two major student surveys through OIRA.

CIRP (freshmen only) NSEE (freshmen and seniors) Results for both are available on:

www.oakland.edu/OIRA These surveys give us information about our

student body. How many hours they work? How difficult they find courses to be at OU How much money their parents make How often they drink Why they choose OU Etc…

Mostly, we find that OU is similar to other institutions. However, there are some differences.

IMPORTANT REASONS TO SELECT OU

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Good academic repu-tationWanted to live near homeLow tuitionOffered financial assistanceGraduates get good jobs

THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING UP TO DATE WITH POLITICS

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

2010

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

OUComparison

MARIJUANA SHOULD BE LEGALIZED

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

OUComparison

Perc

en

tag

e P

oin

ts

DRANK BEER DURING HIGH SCHOOL YEAR

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2009

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

OUComparison

MORE THAN 15 HOURS PER WEEK WORKING OFF CAMPUS

Class Oakland Selected Peers

First-Year 35% 24%

Seniors 61% 52%

TIME SPENT PREPARING FOR CLASS

2003 2005 2007 2009 20113

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

OUPeer

“THE ENVIRONMENT EMPHASIZES SPENDING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TIME ON ACADEMIC WORK”

2003 2005 2007 2009 20112.9

2.95

3

3.05

3.1

3.15

3.2

3.25

OUPeer

ACADEMIC SUCCESS INDICATORS

Part V

PERCENTAGE OF FULL TIME FTIACS WITH 1ST SEMESTER GPAS LESS THAN 2.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

5

10

15

20

25

RETENTION TO SECOND YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

GRADUATION BY 1ST-TERM CREDITS

19921993199419951996199719981999200020010.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Total12-1314+

6-YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY ACT SCORE

6 YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY HS GPA

FIRST YEAR RETENTION RATE BY ACT SCORE

FIRST YEAR RETENTION BY HS GPA

QUESTIONS

What questions do you have for me? What questions do you have for OIRA? What data do you use on a regular basis? What information do you need? What tools do you need to turn your data into

information?