estimated vs. observed traffic analysis: san luis potosí – bledos – villa de arriaga and san...
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ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS:ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS:San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde HighwaysSan Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
Santín Martínez Gabriela
Segura Herrera Eduardo
18th ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL EMME/2 USERS’ CONFERENCE
Mexico City, October 2004
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
TOLL ROAD CHARACTERISTICSTOLL ROAD CHARACTERISTICS
Length: 76 km Speed: 100 km/hr Section: 12 m
Villa de Arriaga
Bledos
La Pila
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
NOROESTE
NORTE
PACIFICO
CENTRO
SUR
NORESTE
ZACATECAS
ESTE
ZONA MEDIA
ZONA HUASTECA SUR
ZONA CENTRO 2POZUELOS
EUA
0 300100 200
Kilometers
Viajes en automóvil
750 375 187.5
CARS MAIN OD PAIRSCARS MAIN OD PAIRS
Origin – Destination PairsDaily Trips weekday
Percentage
Urban Zone SLP
Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit 1382 42%
Guanajuato, Michoacán 554 17%
Villa de Arriaga 305 9%
Industrial Zone SLP
Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit 168 5%
Guanajuato, Michoacán 92 3%
StatesJalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit, Norte de Tamaulipas 87 3%
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
CARSCARS TRIP PURPOSETRIP PURPOSE
Weekend
46%
37%
8% 1% 8%
Weekday
70%
20%
5% 1% 4%
Work Leisure Shopping Study Other
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELSAVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS
Trip Generation
Population and employment
Trip Distribution
Fratar Model,two – dimensional balance
Modal Choice
Trip Assignment
Logit Model with travel time and toll
User equilibrium and multiclass
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
VALUE OF TIME VALUE OF TIME
WeekendWeekday$1 $8
$15
$22
$29
$36
$43
$50
$57
1
19
37
55
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
% a
ssig
ned
vo
lum
e
Toll
Time Saving
0.00-0.10 0.10-0.20 0.20-0.300.30-0.40 0.40-0.50 0.50-0.600.60-0.70 0.70-0.80 0.80-0.90
$1 $8
$15
$22
$29
$36
$43
$50
$57
1
20
39
58
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
% a
ssig
ned
vo
lum
e
Toll
Time Saving
0.00-0.10 0.10-0.20 0.20-0.300.30-0.40 0.40-0.50 0.50-0.600.60-0.70 0.70-0.80 0.80-0.90
Time Cost Time Cost Time Cost Time Cost
Weekday -0.03157 -0.02306 1.369 -0.04213 -0.01521 2.770 -0.06437 -0.02506 2.569 -0.04107 -0.01565 2.624
Weekend -0.03362 -0.02133 1.576 -0.03461 -0.0287 1.206 -0.03461 -0.02870 1.206 -0.03176 -0.03133 1.014
TWO UNIT TRUCKS
CoefficientVOT
Coefficient
CARS
VOT
BUSES
CoefficientVOTPeriod
SINGLE FRAME TRUCKS
CoefficientVOT
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
TRAFFICTRAFFIC ASSIGNMENTASSIGNMENT
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
TRAFFIC FORECASTTRAFFIC FORECAST
Year Cars BusesSingle Frame
TrucksTwo Unit Trucks
Total
2000 989 106 338 368 1,801
2001 1,020 108 344 374 1,8462002 1,047 110 353 383 1,893
2003 1,074 113 363 393 1,9432004 1,101 115 372 402 1,990
2005 1,127 118 382 412 2,0392006 1,158 121 394 424 2,097
2007 1,188 125 406 436 2,1552008 1,218 128 419 448 2,2132009 1,249 132 431 460 2,2722010 1,279 135 443 472 2,329
Average Annual Daily Traffic
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Veh
icle
s
Cars BusesSingle Frame Trucks Two Unit Trucks
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVEDAADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED
Cars
Buses
Single Frame Trucks
Two Unit Trucks
-36.3%
-8.2%
9.2% 5.2%
-43.8%
14.1%
56.4%
82.1%
-68.4%
-57.3%
-45.7%
-53.5%
93.7%
85.0%84.5%
84.3%
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003Year
Veh
icle
s
Observed CarsEstimated Cars
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003Year
Veh
icle
s
Observed Buses
Estimated Buses
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003Year
Veh
icle
s
S.F.T. Observed
S.F.T. Estimated
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003Year
Veh
icle
s
T.U.T. Observed
T.U.T. Estimated
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
VEHICLE COMPOSITION VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARYESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY
Vehicle AADT Observed
Composition AADT Estimated
Composition AADT Observed
Composition AADT Estimated
Composition
Cars 58.7% 55.3% 54.8% 55.3%
Buses 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8%
Single Frame Trucks 6.9% 18.6% 6.8% 18.7%
Two Unit Trucks 28.9% 20.2% 32.8% 20.2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
20032002
Single Frame Trucks = 2, 3 and 4 axle trucksTwo Unit Trucks = 5 or more axle trucksAADT = Average Annual Daily Transit
ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSISSan Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways
Tránsito Observado vs. Estimado AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVEDAADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED
SLP-La Pila-Arriaga
SLP-Cerritos-Río Verde
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
2002 2003Year
AA
DT
Observed CarsEstimated Cars
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003Year
AA
DT
Observed CarsEstimated Cars