estimating energy savings for a midstream program design targeting plug load steve blanc,...

Estimating Energy Savings for a Midstream Program Design Targeting Plug Load

Steve Blanc, Engineering ServicesBrian Smith, Evaluation, Measurement and Verification

September 17, 2014

Residential PLA Program

2Deck Overview1. Background

2. Estimating Unit Energy Consumption

3. Proposed Methodology for Estimating Program Savings

4. Our Requests of the Cal TF Members


31. Background• The Growing Challenge of Plug Loads

• Retail Plug-Load Portfolio (RPP) Program Concept

• The Long-Term Vision: RPP as A National Platform

• Current RPP Trial Overview


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The Growing Challenge of Plug Loads

Forecasted Change in Residential Electric Consumption, 2012 – 2040.Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2014


5

The Retail Plug-Load Portfolio Concept

*The notes section contains a more detailed program description.


6

Vision:

Transform the way energy efficient products and energy efficiency messages are delivered to residential customers using an omni-channel retail approach.

Concept:

Leading program sponsors and retailers negotiate a mutually-acceptable suite of ENERGY STAR products in exchange for incentives, then work together to increase the market share of higher efficiency products.

Aggregation Customization Transformation Evaluation

Proposed program design provides

flexibility to retailers to tailor marketing

tactics to meet their specific business

needs

The approach is the most likely to

promote retailer and manufacturer

behavior change towards EE

A national scale program is most likely to produce

measureable impact by influencing

buying decisions that are often made

by a central purchasing group

Collaboration

Potential Advantages of a Nationwide, Platform Approach to Program Delivery

Leading energy efficiency program administrators and retailers working

together will provide national scale while retaining the ability

for partners to address local market needs

Operating a single program at a large scale will reduce

program administration costs

Long-Term Vision: A Nationwide ENERGY STAR® Retail Products Platform


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Current RPP Trial Overview

• Current trial Duration is November 1, 2013 - December 31, 2014

• 26 stores (24 PG&E, 2 SMUD) participating• Key objectives are to assess operational

readiness for broader rollout and to test multiple evaluation approaches

• Additional chain(s) may be added for 2015

20 qualifying models across six product categories

*The notes section contains a more detailed trial description.


82. Estimating Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

• The Challenge with the Ex Ante Review Process

• Data Sources for Estimating UECs

• UECs in DEER vs. Model-Level UECs Estimated Using the RPP Methodology

• Example: Estimating UEC for a DVD Player


9The Challenge with the CPUC Ex Ante Review Process for the RPP’s Suite of Measures

• Limited information about product energy use is available.o DEER doesn’t track most of the products comprising the

proposed products of the RPP program.o Energy Star and DOE don’t provide values for key

parameters for many products in the RPP product suite such as hours of use, IMC, and EUL.

o Many of the RPP product categories are evolving rapidly.


10The Challenge with the CPUC Ex Ante Review Process for the RPP’s Suite of Measures

• Limited information about product energy use is available.o DEER doesn’t track most of the products comprising the

proposed products of the RPP program.o Energy Star and DOE don’t provide values for key

parameters for many products in the RPP product suite such as hours of use, IMC, and EUL.

o Many of the RPP product categories are evolving rapidly.

• Work paper dispositions often call for additional research to substantiate estimates of energy use and other key parameters. o Requirements for additional research do not include

assessments of cost effectiveness. o For measures with low per-unit energy savings and/or rapid

model turnover, balancing precision, cost, and timeliness is critical when calling for additional research.


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Data Sources for Estimating UECs

Retailer sales data. 22 months of historical (pre-trial) and ongoing program-period sales data that identifies volume of all unique models sold within each RPP product category, by date.


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Data Sources for Estimating UECs

Retailer sales data. 22 months of historical (pre-trial) and ongoing program-period sales data that identifies volume of all unique models sold within each RPP product category, by date.

Data sources for estimating model-specific unit energy consumption (UEC). UEC estimates created by multiplying measured power in each operating mode by the corresponding hours of annual usage for that mode. Sources include:

¾ DEER¾ EPA ENERGY STAR Qualified Product Lists (QPL)¾ DOE Energy Guide label¾ CEC Appliance Efficiency Program¾ Metered data¾ User surveys


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UECs in DEER vs. Model-Level UECs Using RPP Methodology


14Example: Estimating UEC for a DVD Player

* Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. 2013. Final Field data collection of miscellaneous electrical loads in Northern California: Initial results. Authored by Greenblatt, J.; S. Pratt, H. Willem, E. Claybaugh, L. Desroches, B. Beraki, M. Nagaraju, S. Price and S. Young.

2013 EPA Consumer Electronics Savings

Calculator

LBNL 2013*

Some product categories (predominantly consumer electronics), have no singular source (e.g., DEER; ENERGY STAR; DOE) for UEC values. In these cases, we estimate UECs based on multiple sources.

Type Model # On Mode Power

Consumption (Watts)

Idle Mode Power

Consumption (Watts)

Standby Mode Power Consumption

(Watts)

Off Mode Power

Consumption (Watts)

On Mode-Hours of Use

Idle Mode-Hours of Use

Standby Mode-Hours

of Use

Off Mode-Hours of Use

On Mode Energy

Consumption (kWh/yr)

Idle Mode Energy


Standby Mode Energy Consumption

(kWh/yr)

Off Mode Energy


UEC (kWh/yr)

DVD Player DVD1041 10.2 7.9 1.3 0.0 548 1095 1520 5598 5.6 8.7 2.0 0.0 16.2


153. Proposed Methodology for Estimating Program Savings


16Using Sales-Weighted UEC to Estimate Program Effects

• Two years of historic retailer sales data used to project sales-weighted unit energy consumption (“SWUEC”) baseline moving forward (“forecasted SWUEC”) for each product category without program intervention.

• Future sales used to create “recorded SWUEC.”

• Program effects (“net effects”) is the difference between the two lines.


174. Our Requests to the Cal TF • Materials Provided to Cal TF

• Questions on the Work Paper Abstract

• Questions on the Methodology Doc

• Questions on the UECs


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Materials Provided1. A Work Paper Abstract for the RPP Program.

2. Calculation Methodology that describes how UECs were calculated.

3. An Excel-based spreadsheet with UEC estimates for six product categories created by this methodology.


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Work Paper Abstract Questions1. Is the work paper abstract clear and complete? (If not, please

provide any clarifying questions you may have.)

2. What would you recommend as source(s) and/or a methodology for estimating the effective useful life (EUL) for the product categories for which EUL values do not exist in DEER?

3. What would you recommend as source(s) and/or a methodology for estimating the incremental measure cost (IMC) for the product categories for which IMC values do not exist in DEER?

4. Net-to-gross ratios (NTGRs) are not provided in DEER for comparable market transformation programs. A key challenge is to input NTGRs for each product category into the E3 calculator that best represent a market transformation strategy. Do you have any recommendations? (Optional)


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Methodology Doc Questions1. Is the Calculation Methodology doc clear and complete? (If not,

please provide any clarifying questions you may have.)

2. What is your opinion of the methodologies proposed in the Calculation Methodology doc to estimate UECs? Given that some product categories more challenging than others, what recommendations do you have for alternative approaches?

3. Is our approach for using model-specific UECs instead of DEER UECs acceptable/defensible?

4. Do you have suggestions to modify or improve the proposed calculation methodologies for a larger roll-out that would involve more products, more product categories, and more participating vendors?


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UEC Questions (Optional)Are the resulting UEC estimates plausible? (If not, please provide any suggestions or observations you may have.)

estimating energy savings for a midstream program design targeting plug load steve blanc,...

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