“Estimating the Cost and Schedule of Technology Advancement for Space Projects”

By Joe Hamaker, PhD Galorath Federal Inc.

2016 NASA Cost Symposium

Glenn Research Center

August 23-25

© 2016 Copyright Galorath Incorporated

• 

Estimating Technology Advancement

The current NASA Space Technology Investment Portfolio was used as a database •  Specifically, a convenient source

is: Over 50 technologies discussed with charts like the one on the right Deep Space Optical Comm

• 

• •  $10M and 48 months from TRL 2 to 6

•  From that database, we developed cost and schedule estimating relationships (also shown on following chart) using regression analysis •  N=49, R2 for cost = 70% and F

and t-tests were all good R2 for schedule estimating relationship was not

• 

•  Then we applied these relationships to the portfolio of technologies identified by a current study

•  $10M and 48 months from TRL 2 to 6

2

Database For TRL Cost and Schedule Estimating Relationships

No. NASA  Space  Technology  Projects TRL  Start TRL  End Months Cost  $M Complexity TRL  Delta1 Solar  Electric  Propulsion 4 9 100 $44 4 52 Green  Propellant  Infusion  Mission 5 7 63 $54 4 23 Evolvable  Cryogenics 4 6 66 $13 2 24 Composites  for  Exploration  Upper  Stage 5 6 39 $7 2 15 Deep  Space  Atomic  Clock 5 7 71 $30 3 26 Human  Robotic  Systems 4 6 36 $65 4 27 Human  Exploration  Telerobotics  2 3 7 36 $11 3 48 In-­‐Space  Robotic  Servicing 2 9 124 $61 4 79 Thermal  Protection  System  Materials 2 6 72 $11 2 410 Entry  Systems  Modeling 2 7 54 $17 3 511 Advanced  Manufacturing  Technology 3 6 72 $20 3 312 Nuclear  Systems 3 5 72 $17 3 213 Next  Generation  Life  Support 2 6 84 $24 3 414 Deep  Space  Optical  Communications 2 6 72 $11 3 415 Lightweight  Materials  and  Structures 2 4 30 $11 3 216 Hypersonic  Inflatable  Aerodynamic  Decelerator  2 3 6 12 $32 4 317 In-­‐Situ  Resource  Utilization 4 9 75 $17 4 518 Nanotechnology 3 6 75 $12 3 319 Station  Explorer  X-­‐Ray  Timing  and  Navigation 3 6 87 $14 3 320 Coronograph 3 6 45 $5 2 321 Life  Support  Systems 3 5 72 $43 4 222 Advanced  Spacesuit 3 8 135 $56 4 523 Resource  Prospector 3 6 105 $50 4 324 Lander  Technology 5 9 36 $11 2 425 Radiation  Sensors 3 8 72 $35 4 526 Automated  Propellant  Loading 4 7 72 $32 4 327 Spacecraft  Fire  Safety 5 9 63 $38 4 428 Bigelow  Expandable  Activity  Module 7 9 69 $28 5 229 Nuclear  Thermal  Propulsion 4 4 48 $30 4 030 Exploration  Augmentation  Module 5 8 18 $13 3 331 Autonomous  Mission  Operations 5 7 72 $29 3 232 Logistics  Reduction  and  Repurposing 3 7 60 $19 2 433 Modular  Power  Systems 4 6 84 $23 3 234 Avionics  and  Software 4 6 60 $8 3 235 Stirling  Cycle  Technology  Development 1 6 84 $9 3 536 Astrophysics  Focused  Telescope  Assets  Coronograph 3 6 37 $14 4 337 Large  Array  Infrared  Detectors 4 6 61 $12 4 238 Green  Optical  Autocovariance  Wind  Lidar  Airborne  Demonstrator   3 6 23 $4 2 339 Thermoelectric  Technology  Development 1 6 60 $4 2 540 Enhanced  MultiMission  Radioisotope  Thermoelectric  Generator 3 7 48 $11 4 441 Auto-­‐GOPHER  2 4 6 37 $3 2 242 Subglacial  Polar  Ice  Navigation,  Descent,  and  Lake  Exploration 4 5 18 $2 2 143 Affordable  and  Lightweight  High  Resolution  Astronomical  X-­‐ray  Optics 3 5 13 $6 2 244 ICE  Cube 5 7 26 $3 2 245 Compact  Solar  Spectral  Irradiance  Monitor 3 7 32 $2 2 446 Midwave  Infrared  Sounding  of  Temperature  and  Humidity  in  a  Constellation   4 6 27 $2 2 247 High  Velocity  Research 3 4 24 $2 2 148 Triple  Pulsed  Lidar 3 6 19 $2 2 349 Peregine  Engine  Development 3 8 60 $7 3 5

3

Applying The Models to Some Technologies

TechnologyCurrent  TRL

Basic  Complexity  of  the  Technology  (1  to  5  

with  5  =  Very  Complex)

Time  To  TRL  6  (Months  from  2016)

$Millions  To  TRL  6

Autonomous  space  systems  and  networks 3 4 66 $31Autonomous  ground  networks  and  systems 4 3 45 $13Space  Terminal  Advances 4 2 33 $4Apertures  (RF  through  Optical,  Single  and  Arrayed) 2 5 87 $59Advanced/Adaptive  waveforms  (performance  enhancement  and  interference  mitigation) 2 5 87 $59Low  size,  weight,  and  power  open  standard  commercially  driven  electronics 3 4 66 $31Spacecraft  Advances 3 3 52 $14Distributed  SmallSat/CubeSat  Options 3 3 52 $14Hosted  payloads  through  open  interfaces 4 2 33 $4IP  Networked  systems 4 2 33 $4Cross-­‐linked  systems  (RF  through  Optical) 3 4 66 $31Improved  Reliability/Service  Life 4 3 45 $13Commercial  Innovations 4 2 33 $4Common  standards 4 2 33 $4Planned  technology  refresh  through  long  term  service  agreements 4 2 33 $4Best  leverages  commercial  investment  for  dual  commercial  and  NASA  space  communication  requirements 4 2 33 $4

4

Technology Investment Cost Estimates Time Phased

Technology

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 TotalAutonomous  space  systems  and  networks $5.5 $8.6 $8.2 $6.0 $2.3 $30.6Autonomous  ground  networks  and  systems $3.2 $4.6 $3.7 $1.5 $13.1Space  Terminal  Advances $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Apertures  (RF  through  Optical,  Single  and  Arrayed) $6.3 $11.5 $11.8 $11.1 $9.2 $6.6 $2.2 $58.8Advanced/Adaptive  waveforms  (performance  enhancement  and  interference  mitigation) $6.3 $11.5 $11.8 $11.1 $9.2 $6.6 $2.2 $58.8Low  size,  weight,  and  power  open  standard  commercially  driven  electronics $4.4 $6.7 $7.4 $6.4 $4.2 $1.7 $30.6Spacecraft  Advances $3.5 $5.0 $4.0 $1.6 $14.2Distributed  SmallSat/CubeSat  Options $3.5 $5.0 $4.0 $1.6 $14.2Hosted  payloads  through  open  interfaces $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4IP  Networked  systems $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Cross-­‐linked  systems  (RF  through  Optical) $4.4 $6.7 $7.4 $6.4 $4.2 $1.7 $30.6Improved  Reliability/Service  Life $3.2 $4.6 $3.7 $1.5 $13.1Commercial  Innovations $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Common  standards $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Planned  technology  refresh  through  long  term  service  agreements $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Best  leverages  commercial  investment  for  dual  commercial  and  NASA  space  communication  requirements $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4

Total  Technology  Investment  Estimate  (2016$M) $51.5 $78.1 $68.0 $47.2 $29.0 $16.6 $4.4 $294.8

Conclusions and Observations

•  Admittedly, the “data” used to develop the model shown here is composed of NASA estimates of the cost and time to advance a few dozen technologies •  As these projects proceed costs and schedule could

change…I don’t need to tell this audience

•  Obviously, much better data would be composed of completed TRL projects • • 

• • 

If you have them, could I get a copy?

Meanwhile, the model provided here seems to provide a reasonable representation of NASA’s Space Technology Investment Portfolio

So for the truly desperate, we offer this model With the caveat, use at your own risk

© 2016 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 6