estimating the economic impact of the iowa bioprocessing...• as the facility is a consumer of...
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Estimating the Economic Impact of the Iowa Bioprocessing Center in Eddyville, Iowa
Dave SwensonDepartment of EconomicsCollege of Agriculture
Evaluation of the Regional Worth of …
–Cargill, Inc., –Ajinomoto North America, Inc., –Ajinomoto Heartland, Inc., –Wacker Chemical Corporationand–HFChlor‐Alkali, LLC
At first blush …
• 822 jobs at the Center with a combined payroll of $56.65 million
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. I used a properly specified input‐output model of the three county economy to estimate the overall economic impact of the facility to the regional economy
Adjustments to the model
• Models are dumb. They require savvy operators to run them right.
• Accordingly, to estimate the net financial gains to the regional economy, the economic activity needs to be parsed.
• As the facility is a consumer of corn, which was already in ample supply in the region and in Iowa, one would not assume the plants increased the state’s supply of corn or corn farmers
Next, the individual industries
• The five industries are all different:– They pay at different levels per worker– They have different supply demands from the regional economy
– And they are classified differently• The firms were classified as
– Wet corn milling (Cargill, Wacker)– Other animal food products (Ajinomoto)– Other organic chemicals (Ajinomoto, HFC)
Initial Economic Impacts & Terminology
The Iowa Bioprocessing Center Economic Impacts(Excludes Regional Corn Purchases)
Jobs Labor Income $ Value Added $ Output $
Direct 822 56,648,739 177,561,573 1,792,753,638
Indirect 2,085 95,619,436 157,535,045 375,498,344
Induced 700 21,575,954 40,163,019 73,505,091
Total 3,608 $173,844,129 $375,259,636 $ 2,241,757,073
The Center is a Large Fraction of the Regional Economy
Total Regional Economic Values, 2014
Output $ 8,309,987,177
Value Added $ 2,901,281,340
Labor Income $ 1,673,887,592
Jobs 37,525
27.0%
12.9%10.4% 9.6%
Output ValueAdded
LaborIncome
Jobs
Iowa Bioprocessing Center Values as Percentages of Regional Totals
Boosts to Area Farmers’ Fortunes
($0.06)
($0.10)
($0.17)
($0.23)
Oskaloosa Fairfield Albia Pella
Difference in Corn Prices Per Bushel Compared to Eddyville Bids, 2 March 2016
What Might Those Values Be?Potential Price Premium to Regional Farmers
Bushels of Regional Corn Supply Purchased
5 Cents Per Bushel Premium
10 Cents Per Bushel Premium
27 million $1,350,000 $2,700,000
36 million $1,800,000 $3,600,000
45 million $2,250,000 $4,500,000
Producer Premium Economic Impact Ranges
5 Cents Per Bushel Premium 10 Cents Per Bushel Premium
Bushels of Regional Corn Supply Purchased
Labor Income Jobs Labor Income Jobs
27 million $199,927 6.3 $399,854 12.636 million $266,569 8.4 $533,138 16.845 million $333,211 10.5 $666,423 21.0
Back to the Regional Economy
25,500
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Regional Payroll Jobs
0.99
1.03
0.96
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2007
=1.0 (o
r 100
%)
Index of Payroll Job ChangeMahaska Monroe Wapello
Eddyville
THE REST OF IOWA
Metropolitan payroll job growth, Jan 2008 to Aug 2015
11.9%
9.5%8.3%
7.3%
5.3%
1.9% 1.7%
Iowa City Ames Des Moines Dubuque Waterloo Sioux City CedarRapids
State of Iowa
Micropolitan core county job change2008 to 2014
5.6%
3.3%2.6%
1.5%0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
‐2.2% ‐2.4%‐3.2%
‐4.8%‐5.6%
‐6.6%‐7.4% ‐7.9%
State of Iowa
‐9893
‐6892
‐5998
‐3525
‐3411
‐3136
‐2694
‐1554
‐1505
‐892
119
883
1354
1507
1880
3570
4176
4884
4972
6538
7616
‐12000 ‐10000 ‐8000 ‐6000 ‐4000 ‐2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Durable goods manufacturing
Information
Farm
Government and government enterprises
Retail trade
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Construction
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Wholesale trade
Utilities
Transportation and warehousing
Other services, except public administration
Administrative and waste management services
Mining
Accommodation and food services
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Real estate and rental and leasing
Educational services
Management of companies and enterprises
Finance and insurance
Health care and social assistance
Net Shifts in Iowa Employment by Industry, 2008 to 2014
For a copy of these slides, contact me at [email protected]