esvl montreux may 2012 screen
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M&G European Strategic Value Fund
May 2012
2
Fund facts
• Fund managers: Richard Halle
Daniel White
• Launch date: 1 February 2008
• Fund size: €133 million
• Benchmark: MSCI Europe Index
• Fund manager objective: “Long term total return by investing in
undervalued European equities”
• Performance record Top quartile since inception
Source: M&G as at 31 March 2012 Ratings as at 31 March 2012 and should not be taken as a recommendation
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M&G European Strategic Value Fund MSCI Europe Morningstar Europe Large Cap Value Equity Sector
Performance
Source: Morningstar Pan-European database, as at 31 March 2012, bid to bid with net income reinvested Euro A class, calculated in Euros.
Rebased to 100 as at 01 February 2008 (launch).
Fund performance since launch
…. 1st quartile since inception of the fund
Reb
as
ed
to
10
0
Pan-European database
4
Fund style since inception
Source: Morningstar Style Box ®. Latest data available. * Select value strategy funds in the Morningstar Europe Large-Cap Value Equity sector
Morningstar style box
Value Core Growth
Large
Mid
Small
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
Peer group funds*
5
Fund style since inception
Source: Morningstar Style Box ®. As at 31st March 2012
Morningstar style box
Value Core Growth
Large
Mid
Small
Consistent value style since launch
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
M&G European Strategic Value Fund historic style bias
6
M&G European Strategic Value Fund Building upon the expertise of the Global Equities Team
7 PCR team members (Equities)
9 Investment Specialists (Equities)
M&G Equities Investment Team
M&G Global Equities Team
22 investment professionals
Equity Research
Investment Specialists
Fund Manager Assistants
(FMAs)
6 FMAs (Equities)
Equities Dealing Team
Portfolio Construction
& Risk
Head of Equity
Research: James Alexander
11 Analysts
Head of Dealing:
Daniel Riches
5 Dealers
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
Lead Fund Manager: Richard Halle
Co-Fund Manager: Daniel White
M&G European
Strategic Value Fund
Susanne Grabinger
M&G European
Strategic Value Fund
James Doogan
Adam Jones
Source: M&G as at 20 March 2012.
M&G European
Strategic Value Fund
Jonathan Morris
Ritu Vohora
Dave Fishwick
Head of Macro and
Equity Investment
David McGillveray
Head of
Investment
Oversight
Gary Cotton
Chief Executive
- Equities
Arvind Sabharwal
Director of Investment
- Equities
7
• Fund manager since launch (February 2008)
• Joined M&G in 1999 as an equity analyst
• Fund Manager for various institutional mandates on a
European Value strategy since 2001
• CFA charterholder
Lead Fund Manager
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
May 2012
Richard Halle, Fund Manager
9
• Why European Value now?
• The M&G European Strategic Value proposition
• Opportunities for the European Value Investor
Agenda
10
Investing in Europe now?
Source: Front covers of Focus, Economist, Liberation and various pictures of Angela Merkel
11
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
1
2
3
4
5
197
5
197
7
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
Year
Source: M&G, DataStream, European market inc UK, 29 February 2012. * ROE – Return on Equity
European market
Tre
nd
RO
E E
uro
pe
an
Co
mp
an
ies
Pri
ce
/Bo
ok
Eu
rop
ea
n E
qu
itie
s
Long-term average
Price/Book Trend ROE*
European equities are attractively priced Price to book valuation in Europe
12
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Higher dispersion and better valuation signals
Lower dispersion and poorer valuation signals
Valuation dispersion
Source: SocGen, as at 29 February 2012. *Dispersion is defined as standard deviation of Price to Book ratios of the European market
Sta
nd
ard
de
via
tio
n f
rom
ave
rag
e d
isp
ers
ion
*
European equities valuation dispersion
Dispersion between cheapest and most expensive
13
• Why European Value now?
• The M&G European Strategic Value proposition
• Opportunities for the European Value Investor
Agenda
14 Source: M&G Investment Management, backtest as of end of April 2012.
2.7%
1.0%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Three-year average annualised excess returns since 1988
Price to Book Quartiles
Value investing: the theory
Cheapest Most Expensive
Buy the cheapest stocks in order to outperform
15
Investment process
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Au
tos
Ba
nk
s
Ba
sic
Ma
teri
als
Co
nsu
me
r S
erv
ices
He
alt
hca
re
Ind
us
tria
ls
Insu
ran
ce
Me
dia
Oil &
Ga
s
Fin
an
cia
l S
erv
ice
s
Sta
ple
s
Tec
hn
olo
gy
Tele
co
ms
Uti
liti
es
Objective: to identify stocks in the cheapest quartile
Cheapest
Most Expensive
Adjusted
price-
to-book
Investment
Universe
Stage 1: Strict screening process
16
Investment process
Financial
Strength
Business
Durability
Management
Behaviour
Covenants
Goodwill &
intangible
assets
Debt maturity
Hidden asset
values Contingent
liabilities
Pension
liabilities
Operating
leases
Working
capital
Industry Structure
Competitive Dynamics Value Chain
Business Model
sustainability Entry barriers Return on
capital profile
Product
Lifecycle
Bargaining
Power
Dividend Policy
Capital Allocation
Corporate Governance
Poison Pills
Attitude
Track record
Experience
Objective: to exclude stocks with material barriers
to mean reversion
Stage 2: Fundamental analysis
17
Fundamental analysis
Adjusted
price-to-book 0.88x 0.76x
Financial
strength
Undervalued property assets
Manageable level of fixed charge cover
Dangerously low level of fixed charge
cover
Business
durability
Best in class retailer
Strong organic growth in difficult market
Weak performance
Unclear strategy
Management
behaviour
Family controlled
Conservative management
CFO recently departed due to poor
performance
Aggressive international expansion
Retailers
Source: M&G, as at April 2011 (at time of purchase).
Add value by excluding poor businesses
18
Fundamental analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Apr-2011 Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012
Hornbach
Praktiker
Performance – Hornbach and Praktiker
Hornbach – purchased in April 2011
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 20th April 2012
Ind
exed
to
100
at
tim
e o
f p
urc
has
e Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
+18.2%
-81.0%
19
Investment process
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Stock detracted from performance of fund Stock added to performance of fund
+1.6% +7%
Top 20 (19%) Bulk of Portfolio of 116 stocks (81%)
Source: Xamin, investment returns (gross of fees) relative to MSCI Europe as at 31 December 2011
… successful implementation of process
Process drives returns …
Value added by stock relative to MSCI Europe Index (since inception)
20
• Why European Value now?
• The M&G European Strategic Value proposition
• Opportunities for the European Value Investor
Agenda
21
The current €uro crisis creates investment opportunities
1. Valuations matter
2. Europe is not one homogenous mess
3. European economy ≠ European equities
22
Breakdown of the fund
18%
57%
25% Hard Currency
Europe Focused
Global Businesses
Source: M&G, as at 31st March 2012
2. Europe is not one
homogenous mess
1. Valuations matter
3. European economy ≠ European equities
23
Fund characteristics
Source: Leverage from Style Research as at 31 March 12, Price to book and Price to Earnings (PE) for fund from factset, for MSCI Europe from Bloomberg as at 20th April 2012,
as at market rebased to 100
Price to Book PE Leverage
Market Fund
1.4
9.8 1.0
13.0
28% valuation discount to the market
127%
107%
24
Value investing in real life
25
Conclusion
• Market environment remains poor, but
– Valuations matter
– Europe is not one homogenous economy
– European economy ≠ European equities
• It is a wonderful time to construct a European value portfolio
Prices may fluctuate and you may not get back your original investment.
This document is designed for investment professionals’ use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. For Switzerland: Distribution of this document in
or from Switzerland is not permissible with the exception of the distribution to qualified investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act, the Swiss
Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and the respective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by the initial
recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only.
In Spain the M&G Investment Funds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G Investment Funds (1) reg. no
390, M&G Investment Funds (2) reg. no 601, M&G Investment Funds (3) reg. no 391, M&G Investment Funds (5) reg. no 972, M&G Investment Funds (7) reg. no 541, M&G Investment
Funds (9) reg. no 930, M&G Global Dividend Fund reg. no 713 M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund reg. no 843, M&G Global Macro Bond Fund reg. no 1056 and M&G Optimal Income Fund
reg. no 522.
The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales.
In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, with the exception of M&G Investment Funds (2), M&G Investment Funds (5), M&G Investment Funds (9) and the M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund,
are registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM.
This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current
prospectus. The prospectus, Key Investor Information Document (KIID), annual report and subsequent semi-annual report, are available free of charge, in paper form, from the ACD:
M&G Securities Limited, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, GB, or one of the following: M&G International Investments Limited, German branch, Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311
Frankfurt am Main, the German paying agent J.P. Morgan AG, Junghofstraße 14, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, the Austrian paying agent, Raiffeisen Bank International A.G., Am
Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien, the Luxembourg paying agent, J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., European Bank & Business Center, 6 c route de Treves, 2633 Senningerberg,
Luxembourg, the Danish paying agent, Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Issuer Services, Securities Services, Hermes Hus, Helgeshøj Allé 33, Postbox 850, DK-0900, Copenhagen C,
Denmark, Allfunds Bank, Calle Estafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, M&G International Investments Limited, 34 Avenue Matignon,
75008, Paris, France or from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Dexia Investors Services Bank France. For Switzerland: Please refer to M&G International Investments Ltd.,
Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main or, for Sweden, from the paying agent, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ), Sergels Torg 2, 106 40 Stockholm, Sweden. For Italy,
they can also be obtained from one of the appointed paying agents, details of which can be found by visiting the contact section on the following website: www.mandg-investments.it.
Before subscribing you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds.
This financial promotion is published by M&G International Investments Ltd. Registered Office: Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and registered with the CNMV in Spain.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Performance stats are quoted gross of Italian tax on capital gains
27
Appendix
28
M&G European Strategic Value Fund
%
Source: Morningstar, Inc (Pan-European Marketed database) as at 31st March 2012. Figures in Euros, bid to bid, net income reinvested.
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012
M&G ESVL €A MSCI Europe EUR Europe Large-Cap Value Equity sector avg
Performance in each calendar year since launch
29
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Valuations matter
Source: Datastream as at 14th February 2012
Book value is much less volatile than earnings
European companies, yearly change
Book Value Growth Earnings Growth
30 Source: Morgan Stanley as at 05th October 2011, Interbrand, “Top 100 Brands 2010”
European economy ≠ European equities
% Revenues of European companies in Europe
50
55
60
65
70
75
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
39 of 100 Most Valuable Brands are European
Developed Europe
54%
North America,
15%
Others, 2%
Emerging Markets,
29%
% Revenues of European companies
31 Source: Bloomberg & Company Data, as at 31st December 2011; *EV/tonne: Enterprise Value per tonne cement produced
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ce
mex
Re
pla
ce
men
tC
ost
He
ide
lberg
Ce
men
t
Ho
lcim
La
farg
e
Ita
lcem
enti
Buzzi
1. Valuations matter Stock example: Buzzi
Cement Capacity US$ EV/ tonne*
32
2. Europe is not one homogenous mess Stock Example: Hornbach
Source: Bloomberg, as at 31st December 2011, valuation as at 14th February 2012
HORNBACH`s Market Share in Germany
4.9% 5.3% 5.6%
6.1% 6.7%
7.1% 7.6% 7.7%
8.1% 8.3% 8.5% 8.7% 8.9%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Germany
Other AAAEurope
Other Europe
Revenue by Geography
Valuation
Hornbach Home Depot
PE 11 18
Price to Book 1.3 4
33
3. European economy ≠ European equities
North America and Oceania
42% Middle East, Africa and
Asia 29%
Europe 29%
Source: Bloomberg FY 2010, valuation as at 14th February2012; EV/EBITDA: Enterprise Value/EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization)
Stock Example: BIC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
BIC P&G ColgateE
V /E
BIT
DA
Revenue Valuation
34
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
US EU
Stock example: Valeo Valuations matter
Source: Bloomberg, as at 14th February 2012, Auto sales USA and Europe in units: Redburn as at 14th February 2012; EV/EBITDA: Enterprise Value/ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortization)
Valeo 2012
PE 7.2
Price to Book 1.2
EV/EBITDA (inc
Pension) 2.9
Dividend Yield 3.6
USA and European auto sales
un
its s
old
, m
illio
ns
35
Stock example: Millennium & Copthorne
14%
11%
17%
7% 11%
31%
9%
New York Regional US
London Rest of Europe
Singapore Rest of Asia
Source: Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Annual Report 2010, Bloomberg as at 18th January 2012
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Millenium Hyatt Wyndham StarwoodP
rice t
o B
oo
k
European economy ≠ European equities
Assets Split Valuation
36
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
UBS
• Financial strength
– One of the strongest core tier 1 capital
ratios in the industry
– Diversified funding with surplus long
term liquidity
– Limited exposure to peripheral
European banks & sovereigns
• Business durability
– Strong wealth management franchise
with high ROE
– Investment bank is undergoing
extensive restructuring
• Management behaviour
– Significant amount of management
change
Sha
re p
rice
in E
UR
Buy discipline UBS – purchased September 2011
Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Initiated Position
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012
37
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Morrison Sainsbury
• Financial strength
– ~100% freehold property portfolio
– Modest balance sheet gearing
– Fully funded pension obligation
• Business durability
– Number 4 UK Food retailer
– High degree of vertical integration
– Not expanded aggressively into
non-food unlike competitors
• Management behaviour
– Conservative & disciplined track
record
Inde
xed
to 1
00 a
t tim
e of
sw
itch
Buy discipline Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Switch to Morrison
Morrisons – purchased in February 2011
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012
38
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Signet
• Financial strength
– Renegotiation of debt covenant
removed outstanding barrier to
mean reversion
• Business durability
– US & UK jewellery retailer
– Market leading position in US
where significant capacity exiting
the market
• Management behaviour
– Conservative approach to store
expansion has put Signet in
stronger position versus
competitors
Buy discipline Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Initiated
position
Signet – purchased June 2009
Launch of the Fund
on Feb 1st 2008
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012
Sha
re p
rice
in E
UR
39
2.5
7.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Buy discipline Electrolux – purchased February ‘08 to March ‘09
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012
Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Sha
re p
rice
in E
UR
Initiated Position
Launch of the Fund
on Feb 1st 2008
• Financial strength
– Reasonably strong balance sheet
(almost debt free by FY2009)
• Business durability
– Restructuring program removed
main barrier to mean reversion
(previously high cost production
versus competitors)
– Falling steel price provided strong
raw material tail wind
• Management behaviour
– Strong track record in
restructuring, cost cutting and
margin improvement
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Bank of Ireland
Sell discipline Bank of Ireland
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012; NAMA: National Asset Management Agency
Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Initiated Position
Launch of the Fund
on Feb 1st 2008
Sold
• Bought September 2009,
sold February 2010
• Still in cheapest quartile
when sold
• New disclosure on NAMA
assets indicated financial
barrier to mean reversion
Sha
re p
rice
in E
UR
41
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Erdemir
Sell Discipline Erdemir
Source: M&G, Datastream as at 16th March 2012
Financial strength
Business durability
Management behaviour
Initiated Position
Launch of the Fund
on Feb 1st 2008
Sold
• Bought February 2008, sold
June 2008
• Fundamentals still looked
solid
• Screening process
highlighted fact that
valuation was no longer
attractive
Sha
re p
rice
in E
UR
Prices may fluctuate and you may not get back your original investment.
This document is designed for investment professionals’ use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. For Switzerland: Distribution of this document in
or from Switzerland is not permissible with the exception of the distribution to qualified investors according to the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act, the Swiss
Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance and the respective Circular issued by the Swiss supervisory authority ("Qualified Investors"). Supplied for the use by the initial
recipient (provided it is a Qualified Investor) only.
In Spain the M&G Investment Funds are registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes as follows: M&G Investment Funds (1) reg. no
390, M&G Investment Funds (2) reg. no 601, M&G Investment Funds (3) reg. no 391, M&G Investment Funds (5) reg. no 972, M&G Investment Funds (7) reg. no 541, M&G Investment
Funds (9) reg. no 930, M&G Global Dividend Fund reg. no 713 M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund reg. no 843, M&G Global Macro Bond Fund reg. no 1056 and M&G Optimal Income Fund
reg. no 522.
The collective investment schemes referred to in this document (the "Schemes") are open-ended investment companies with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales.
In the Netherlands, all funds referred to, with the exception of M&G Investment Funds (2), M&G Investment Funds (5), M&G Investment Funds (9) and the M&G Dynamic Allocation Fund,
are registered with the Dutch regulator, the AFM.
This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current
prospectus. The prospectus, Key Investor Information Document (KIID), annual report and subsequent semi-annual report, are available free of charge, in paper form, from the ACD:
M&G Securities Limited, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, GB, or one of the following: M&G International Investments Limited, German branch, Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311
Frankfurt am Main, the German paying agent J.P. Morgan AG, Junghofstraße 14, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, the Austrian paying agent, Raiffeisen Bank International A.G., Am
Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien, the Luxembourg paying agent, J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., European Bank & Business Center, 6 c route de Treves, 2633 Senningerberg,
Luxembourg, the Danish paying agent, Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Issuer Services, Securities Services, Hermes Hus, Helgeshøj Allé 33, Postbox 850, DK-0900, Copenhagen C,
Denmark, Allfunds Bank, Calle Estafeta, No 6 Complejo Plaza de la Fuente, La Moraleja 28109, Alcobendas, Madrid, M&G International Investments Limited, 34 Avenue Matignon,
75008, Paris, France or from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Dexia Investors Services Bank France. For Switzerland: Please refer to M&G International Investments Ltd.,
Bleidenstraße 6-10, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main or, for Sweden, from the paying agent, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ), Sergels Torg 2, 106 40 Stockholm, Sweden. For Italy,
they can also be obtained from one of the appointed paying agents, details of which can be found by visiting the contact section on the following website: www.mandg-investments.it.
Before subscribing you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds.
This financial promotion is published by M&G International Investments Ltd. Registered Office: Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and registered with the CNMV in Spain.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Performance stats are quoted gross of Italian tax on capital gains