ETHAN MANTHEY

BONNIE WATSON

STRATEGIC

PLAN

(2016-2021)

6

Focus On tracking changes in

total market energy

consumption for

high-priority markets.

STRATEGIC

OBJECTIVES

7

Integrating With Transmission &

Load Forecasting

Building Full-Market

Consumption

Models

Engaging With stakeholders &

getting external RTF

subcommittee

review of our work

8

HIGH

PRIORITY

MARKETS

8

Markets With

Significant • Energy consumption

• Market changes

impacting consumption

9

HIGH

PRIORITY

MARKETS

9

• Non-Res Lighting

• Res Lighting

• Res HVAC

• Com HVAC

• (New) Res hot water

• (New) Data centers

10

PHASED

APPROACH

10

Phases 1. Understand market

2. Develop method

3. Collect data

4. Build model

JESSICA AIONA

BONNIE WATSON

ETHAN MANTHEY

12

Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water

OUR UPCOMING

PROJECTS

13

Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water

OUR UPCOMING

PROJECTS

14

Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water

OUR UPCOMING

PROJECTS

15

Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water

OUR UPCOMING

PROJECTS

Lighting HVAC Data Centers Hot Water

OUR UPCOMING

PROJECTS

ETHAN MANTHEY

This Just In: Sales Data Non-residential Lighting

The non-residential lighting

market is at a tipping point

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2015 2020 2025 2030U.S. DOE 2014

% O

F L

UM

EN

-HO

UR

SA

LE

S

FUTURE LED MARKET SHARE COMMERCIAL SPACE

We know this because the data is

telling us so

Distributor Sales Data

Idaho

Montana Washington

30% Oregon

Sales Data Representation Across the Region

LEDs – Faster and Faster…

2014

2015

2016

Decorative &

Track Lighting

Indoor Fixtures

Outdoor

Fixtures

A-Type

Reflectors/

Downlights

Reflectors/

Downlights

LED Tubes

…With Room to Grow

CFL

Halogen

Incandescent

LED

HID

Linear

Fluorescent

2015 2016 2014 2013

TLEDs +311% Growth

TLEDs +311% Growth 2

01

6

20

15

20

14

20

13

T5 4ft Fixtures

T12 4ft Fixtures

T8 4ft Fixtures

LED Tube 4ft

Fixtures

Integrated LED

Fixtures

Linear Sales are Up

Screw-In Lamps 2013 - 2016

CFL

Halogen

Incandescent

LED

CFL

Halogen

Incandescent

LED

Lots of Incandescents Still

Getting Screwed In

Pin-Base Downlights

2015 2016 2014 2013

LED

Pin-Base

LED

Retrofit Kit

LED

Fixture

CFL Pin-

Base Lamp

HID Sales are Finally Declining

Metal

Halide

Mercury

Vapor

High

Pressure

Sodium

2015 2016 2014 2013

Dramatic Changes Ahead

32

Stay Cool!

THX!

See you September 6th!