ethane/ethylene; propane/propylene let’s call the whole ... · and the table layouts have changed...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Ethane/Ethylene; Propane/Propylene

– Let’s call the whole thing off

For:

Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar

November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX

By:

Warren Wilczewski

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis

• EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977

• EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy

information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public

understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the

environment

• EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its

data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other

officer or employee of the U.S. Government

• EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions

2 Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar


Key takeaways

• On August 31, with the release of the 2016 Petroleum Supply Annual, EIA

implemented the alkanes/olefins split in its monthly tables back to January

2010 – both on the web and in the Petroleum Supply Monthly

• Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels

and the table layouts have changed

• Much of the work based on stakeholder input

• The only data that will no longer appear in EIA tables is ethylene, with the

exception of refinery production of ethylene

• Together with new rail data and other products, EIA’s coverage of HGL

continues to improve, with more enhancements to come

Warren Wilczewski – Platts NGLs Conference & Petrochemical Seminar

November 1, 2017 | Houston, TX 3



If you’re experiencing déjà vu, you’re not alone

Source: EIA’s YouTube Channel; Alkanes/Olefins split in HGL Data Workshop

4

https://www.youtube.com/user/EIAgov

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/workshop/

EIA’s HGL terminology bridges how the commodities are supplied,

marketed and consumed

5

*Butanes include normal butane and isobutane.

Refinery

Olefins

Refinery Olefins

Natural Gasoline)

Natural Gasoline)

Natural Gasoline, & Refinery Olefins)

Plant Condensate

Crude Oil/ Lease Condensate

Gas Well Oil Well

Field/Lease Separator

Refinery/ Condensate Splitter



EIA’s revised monthly data tables for HGL affect all natural gas liquids

(alkanes) and refinery olefins (olefins)

6

Natural

Gasoline

Ethane

+

Ethylene (net refinery

production only)



Liquefied

Petroleum Gases

-ethane -ethylene

-propane -propylene

-n-butane -n-butylene

-isobutane -isobutylene

Pentanes

Plus

Ethane/

Ethylene

Propane

+

Propylene

Propane/

Propylene

Normal

Butane

+

Normal

Butylene

Normal Butane/

Normal Butylene

Isobutane

+

Isobutylene

Isobutane/

Isobutylene

Alkanes = Natural Gas Liquids

Olefins = Refinery Olefins

propane

n-butane

isobutane



Where it all began…

7

market calls this Natural Gasoline

LPG? Not really, since it includes ethane and all refinery olefins

Mixed products from multiple sources of production reporting combined product supplied numbers that in fact

serve completely different markets



…where we are now

Source: EIA, Supply and Disposition table

8

ALKANES

OLEFINS

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbbl_m_cur.htm

Source: EIA, Exports by Destination

The new tables/categories fixed what needed fixing



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPLLPA_EEX_mbblpd_m.htm

Surveys remain the same, and the data remain the same, only the labels




Source: EIA, Natural Gas Plant Field Production

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_gp_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm





Source: EIA, Refinery Net Production

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp2_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm





Source: EIA, Refinery & Blender Net Input

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_inpt_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm





Source: EIA, Movements by Pipeline

between PAD Districts – PADD 1 to

PADD 2

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_pipe_dc_R20-R10_mbbl_m.htm










Source: EIA, Movements of Crude Oil and Selected Products by Rail between PAD Districts

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_rail_dc_R10-R20_mbbl_m.htm

Natural gas processing plant stocks are alkanes-only



• Though EIA survey product codes for

natural gas plants collect data on

alkane/olefin mixes, natural gas plants

do not produce olefins

• Therefore, all natural gas plant stocks

are of alkanes only

Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Natural Gas Processing Plant

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_d_nus_SKN_mbbl_m.htm




Pipeline stocks of HGL are nearly wholly alkanes



• Based on stakeholder feedback, EIA

has determined at best minor

quantities of olefins are moved by

pipelines that respond to EIA’s surveys

• All stocks of mixed alkanes/olefins in

pipelines have therefore been moved

to the alkanes-only categories

Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Pipeline

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_d_nus_SKP_mbbl_m.htm




Bulk Terminal surveys, for the most part, already collected olefins stocks



• EIA surveys bulk terminals on the

mixed alkane/olefins codes, but also

collects separate data on propylene

and ethylene stocks

• Propane stocks are therefore now

reported as prior propane/propylene

MINUS the propylene portion

• Ethane stocks are the ethane/ethylene

stocks MINUS the ethylene.

• The Ethylene will no longer be reported

• Based on stakeholder feedback, stocks

of butanes/butylenes are assumed to

be of alkanes only

• Pentanes Plus stocks = Natural

Gasoline stocks Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Bulk Terminal

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_d_nus_SKB_mbbl_m.htm




Refinery stocks required a more involved approach



• Refinery stocks are surveyed as

alkane/olefin mixes

• No blanket assumptions can be made

about particular refineries or regions

that would allow for a clear split of

alkanes and olefins

• Through consultation with industry

stakeholders, EIA learned refinery

stocks generally reflect refinery

throughput

• Refinery stocks are therefore split in

EIA’s back-office system, by calculating

ratios of refinery net production of each

alkane and olefin, and applying that

ratio to monthly stocks

• Underlying survey data remains

unchanged Source: EIA, Stocks by Type – Refinery

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_typ_d_nus_SKR_mbbl_m.htm




0

400

800

1,200

1,600

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PADD 1

propane product supplied

thousand barrels/month heating degree days

PADD 2


thousand barrels/month heating degree days



Applying new data – propane product supplied & heating degree days

Source: EIA Propane Product Supplied; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weighted Heating Degree Days

19

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 2

3

4 5


heating degree days


heating degree days

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_a_EPLLPA_mbbl_m_cur.htm

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/htdocs/degree_days/weighted/legacy_files/heating/statesCONUS/

And how about that rail?



(almost) All rail data,

(almost) all the time



2010 Movements



propylene propane

isobutane normal butane

2016 Movements



propylene propane

isobutane normal butane

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010/Jan 2011/Jan 2012/Jan 2013/Jan 2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan

Canada to U.S. propane rail shipments, by PADD

1,000 b/d



Post-Cochin, Canadian shippers seek markets with fewer rail miles

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Movements of Propane by Rail

24

1 2

3

4 5

PADD 5 share of Canadian rail exports 10% 7% 33%

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_railNA_a_EPLLPA_RAIL_mbbl_m.htm


-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Conway, KS

Edmonton, AB

Edmonton to Conway spread

approx. AB-KS rail cost

Conway/Edmonton price spread reflects changing shipper practice

Source: EIA, Bloomberg, data through October 23, 2017

average monthly propane spot price

¢/gallon



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Western Canada propane inventory

million barrels

PADD 2 (Midwest) propane/propylene inventory

million barrels



If not by rail…

Source: National Energy Board of Canada;

26

W. Canada inventories

5-year average

5-year range

PADD 2 inventories

5-year average

5-year range

https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/ntrlgslqds/stt/lqdptrlmgsr-eng.html

Selected state propane* inventories

Source: EIA, Propane Situation Update, data through Oct. 20, 2017



*propane/propylene for fuel use only; inventories include stocks at terminals,

gas plants, and refineries only

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Kansas propane stocksthousand bbls

5-year range Year ago inventories 5-year average

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500


Michigan propane stocksthousand bbls


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000


Illinois, Indiana, Ohio propane stocksthousand bbls


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin propane stocksthousand bbls


https://www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/resources/Propane_Briefing.pdf

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Source: EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook also falling in line



U.S. ethane production and disposition

million barrels

historical projected ethane recovery

exports

domestic consumption

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels

• Availability and pricing for the four principals

heating fuels

1. propane

2. heating oil

3. natural gas

4. electricity

• Data relevant to each state available through

clickable map

• Links to resources for each state

• Current week and 3-month weather forecasts

from NOAA

• Every graph can be downloaded as an image

or as a spreadsheet

Winter Heating Fuels Webpage



http://www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels

Automating EIA data pulls



Download & Install Excel plug-in: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/excel/

4a PASTE

4b PRESS

http://www.eia.gov/beta/api/excel/



https://www.eia.gov/opendata/excel/

• Energy by rail data


• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)


• Energy Explained: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home

• Drilling Productivity Report | http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

• Winter Heating Fuels Site | www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/

• Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

• Winter Heating Fuels Site | www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/

• State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state



Recent EIA HGL-related data products




http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=hgls_home

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

http://www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/special/heatingfuels/

http://www.eia.gov/state

Thank you

32

Warren Wilczewski 202-586-9320 [email protected]

Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis



mailto:[email protected]

ethane/ethylene; propane/propylene let’s call the whole ... · and the table layouts have changed...

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