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ETHOS CAPITAL INVESTOR PRESENTATION March 2018

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Page 1: ETHOS CAPITAL INVESTOR PRESENTATION › wp-content › uploads › 2018 › 03 › EC...Strategy –investment into healthcare companies in SA and SSA Principals –Michael Flemming,

E T H O S C A P I TA L

I N V E S T O R P R E S E N TAT I O N

March 2018

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2

General market outlook

Ethos Capital market update

Outlook for Ethos Capital

Invested Capital was 39% of NAV as at December 2017

MTN, Kevro closed in July and October, Primedia in December

Offers in on businesses with a total investment for Ethos Capital of c.R400m

Strong opportunity pipeline for Fund VII

Mid Market Fund c.44% invested with good execution visibility on new deals

Healthcare platform investment program has begun (one deal signed, one in execution)

Mezzanine Fund pipeline is strong, investment program to commence in April 2018

Outlook for market conditions and business / consumer sentiment turned positive post December

Tough 2H2017 for most Portfolio Companies, sentiment will take time to impact profitability

Asset selection and pricing remains key

Focus on cost management and strategic growth levers in Portfolio Companies

Strong investment pipeline across the Funds

Portfolio well placed to benefit from an improved macroeconomic outlook

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Portfolio Company diversification

Note: size of bubble representative of Ethos

Capital’s economic interest in the Portfolio Companies

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6,66 6,47

4,10 4,29

8,49

31 Dec 2017 Proforma Share price

Cash Invested Capital Share price

10,37

10,76

0,29

0,16 0,03

0,06 0,03

30 June 2017 TemporaryInvestment

return

InvestedPortfolio

return

Sharebuybacks

Expenses & tax Ethos fees 31 December2017

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

5%

8%9% 9%

14%

22%

28%

4

NAV overview (NAVPS)1

Proforma Invested NAV contribution High level overview of pipeline transactions (Rm)3 4

Portfolio overview

Portfolio composition per share (NAVPS)2

R10.76

39% 41%

R764m

NAV

% of NAV% of NAV

Invested NAV

Discount to NAV

21%

730

1 118

102

286

Current Invested NAV Signed transactions Exclusive negotiations Proforma Invested NAV

Direct InvestmentsMid Market Fund InvestmentsFund VI Investments

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21%

41%

Discount to NAV Discount to peer group

4,9x 4,4x5,6x 5,1x

8,5x

5,3x 5,7x

7,6x

2,0x2,4x

2,2x

1,7x

2,7x

4,9x4,8x 1,5x

6.9x 6.8x

7.8x

6.8x

11.2x

10.2x10.5x

9.1x

Ethos Capital Directs Fund VI EMMF Brait North America Western Europe RoW

Equity Debt EV / EBITDA

0,5%

0,9%

0,6%

0,7%

2,4%

10,1%

10,8%

11,7%

28,7%

33,6%

BevCo

RTT

Neopak

Eaton Towers

Waco

Twinsaver

Autozone

Eazi Access

Kevro

Primedia

6,9x

2,0x

-

1,0x

2,0x

3,0x

4,0x

5,0x

6,0x

7,0x

8,0x

EV / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA

5

Ethos Capital valuation and Portfolio Companies’ average discount to

peer group companies1

Weighted average EV / EBITDA – comparisons with SA investment companies and global funds 3

Ethos Capital NAV analysis

Portfolio EBITDA contribution (excluding MTN Zakhele Futhi)

Note: Brait valuation multiple based on weighted average of Virgin Active, Premier and Iceland Foods

11.7x

Peer group companies’ weighted average EV / EBITDA

2

R129m

Attributable EBITDA

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Mezzanine Fund

Mid Market Fund

Healthcare Platform

Buyout Fund (Fund VI and Fund VII)

4

6

Ethos Capital fund commitments2

Ethos funds - risk reward frontier

Ethos fund evolution

Risk reward frontier – fund view

3

1

Mezzanine Fund

Buyout Fund

Mid Market Fund

AI Fund

Healthcare Platform

Return

Risk

Target IRR

15-17%

Target IRR

18-22%

Target IRR

22-25%

Target IRR

25-28%

Target IRR

Base IRR +5%

Monolineprivate equity

business

Alternative asset

management business

1984 Fund I

US$101m

1992 Fund II

US$34m

1996 Fund III

US$172m

1998 Fund IV

US$358m

2006 Fund V

US$747m

2018 AI Fund

US$75m

2018 Fund VII

US$800m

2017

Healthcare

US$150m

2017

Mezzanine

US$150m

2016 Mid Market

US$150m2012 Fund VI

US$805m

Commitment

Fund VI US$10m (1.4% of total fund)

Fund VII R1.25bn first close commitment

Drawn down

Fund VI US$8.3m (83%), Fund VII R0m

Commitment

R900m (c.49% of total fund)

Drawn down

R362m (40%) – as at December 2017

R396m (44%) - current

Commitment

R250m first close commitment

R320m final commitment

Drawn down

R0m

Commitment

R250m first close commitment

Drawn down

R0m

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3,1x2,5x

3,8x4,5x 4,7x 4,9x

7,2x1,7x 2,6x

3,2x2,7x

4,8x 4,3x

1,7x

Fund III Fund IV Fund V Fund VI NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

Rest of world

Debt Equity

(Entry EBITDA multiple)

8.9x

7.2x7.0x

5.1x4.8x

(Average - last five years)

9.5x9.2x

53 53

23

3

4

49

18

31 Dec 16 31 Dec 16 31 Dec 17 31 Dec 17

Opening Invested Capital New investments Realised growth

NAV growth Undrawn commitments

7

Current Fund performance by asset vintage

Buyout funds in-cost analysis and funding structure2

Buyout Fund VI

Ethos Capital commitments and fund performance (Rm)

Fund parameters

4

1

3

Fund size

Final close in 2012

US$805 million fund size

Deal specifics

Companies with an Enterprise Value of R1.5-8.0 billion

Equity cheque size of R0.4-1.0 billion per investment

Country focus

South Africa with a 20% carve out for investments in Sub Saharan Africa

Sector focus

All sectors excluding deep level mining, real estate and the “sin” industries

Prudential limits

Maximum investment of 15% of the committed capital per transaction

Type of transaction

Buyouts, growth capital for strong highly cashflow generative businesses

Majority control positions (either sole or joint control) or strong minority protections

Fund Size – US$805m

Vintage – 2012

Strategy – large buyouts in SA and rest of SSA

14% uninvested

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292 292

70

42 255

532

31 Dec 16 31 Dec 16 31 Dec 17 31 Dec 17

Opening Invested Capital New investments Realised growth

NAV growth Undrawn commitments

6,8x

1,7x

EV / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA

Mid Market LBO Buyout Fund co-investmentFacilitated & secondary BEE

and Special Opportunities

IRR TARGET >25% >25% 25%-35%

INVESTMENT SIZE

GUIDELINESR100-350m R100-350m R100-350m

TARGETS

High growth potential

companies that are often not

optimally capitalised

Buyout Fund investments that

require a BEE shareholder

High risk-adjusted returns in

market leading businesses

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Leverage Ethos Value Add,

ESG and operational

transformation skills

Leverage Fund VI & VII

investment team

Facilitated & secondary BEE

deals, mezzanine funding/

share cover funding for BEE

DEAL TYPELead shareholder / significant

influenceEthos significant influence

Significant influence and/or self

liquidating instruments

ALLOCATION >50% of capital deployed Balance of capital deployed

8

Current Fund performance by asset vintage

Valuation of the EMMF portfolio2

Mid Market Fund I

Ethos Capital commitments and fund performance (Rm)

Fund parameters

4

1

3

Fund Size – R2.0bn

Vintage – 2016

Strategy – mid-size buyout transactions in SA (BEE fund)

60% uninvested

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9

Ethos Mezzanine Fund target return and product offering

Ethos Capital commitments and fund pipeline2

Mezzanine Fund

Fund parameters1

4

Stage

Established middle- and later-stage business, proven FCF generation-capability, CSF / competitive advantages, management, and shareholders of reference

Growth, expansion, acquisition and replacement finance

EBITDA ≥ US$3m

EV ≥ US$20m

Deal specifics

Mezzanine tranches of c.US$5-30m

Single investment limits

15%

Sector focus

Generalist with focus on financial institutions / insurance; consumer; professional services; industrial goods and materials; TMT; travel and tourism; healthcare

Sector limits: 25%

Country limits

SSA focussed fund with 30% per single country

Base case Scenario Scenario Scenario

Business to be

capitalised

Capital layers In the absence of

mezzanine funding

Mezzanine lender #1 Mezzanine lender #2 Mezzanine lender #3

Target capital

requirement US$100m

Senior secured debt 40% 40% 40% 40%

Mezzanine debt 0% 10% 20% 30%

Shareholders’ equity 60% 50% 40% 30%

Type of mezzanine No mezzanine More debt like Hybrid More equity-like

Instrument return featuresPredominantly contracted

returns

Mixture of contracted

returns and equity kickers

Predominantly equity

kicker-linked returns

Targeted returns (US$) >10% p.a. c.15-18% p.a. >20% p.a.

Fund Size – US$150m

Vintage – first close Q2 2018

Strategy – mezzanine growth capital in SSA and SA

250 320

1 440

1 800

EthosCapital

EthosCapital

Total Total

First close Final close

18%

Transactions

2 signed term sheets

Total funding required US$30m

Ethos Capital funding c.US$6.0m

Deal specifics

Mezzanine debt with equity upside

Timeline

Q2 2018

Geography

SSA

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360 500

621 771

958

1 191

1 452

1 734 1 893

2 173

2 544

2 912

3 337

3 611

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Initial Phase

21%

11%

15%

RONA33%

46%

PE Phase

Listed Phase

EBITDA CAGR

26-75%

10

The investment thesis

Ethos Healthcare Vehicle

Key differentiators Platform structure

Team’s track record at Life Healthcare (EBITDA growth)

1 32

4 Ethos Capital commitments and platform pipeline5

30+ year track record in PE in SSA

Proven track record in operating, growing and listing one of SSA’s largest private hospital groups

Ability to optimise / extract operational efficiencies

Proven track record in acquisition led growth

Ability to attract aligned co-investors and manage exits

Unique structure

Focus on health service providers including:

• most common healthcare needs and specialties

• outpatient and primary care

• tiered “hub and spoke” network of hospitals and clinics

Also complementary adjacencies including specialty chains

focused on diagnosis (e.g. imaging, labs), common

healthcare needs (e.g. eye care, fertility) and MedTech

Geographic focus areas - South Africa & sub-Saharan

Africa (SSA)

Matching the need for growth capital and operational

expertise through partnershipsPlatform

investors

EHF

PathologyEye CareHospital

Group

Bolt On 1

Bolt On 2

26-51% 26-75%

26-75%

MedTech

Fund Size – R2.0 to 3.0bn

Vintage – First close Q2 2018

Strategy – investment into healthcare companies in SA and SSA

Principals – Michael Flemming, Jonathan Lowick

250

1 200

Ethos Capital Total

First close

21%

Transactions

1 transaction completed (subject to regulatory approval)

1 transaction in final negotiations

Total funding required R460m

Ethos Capital funding c.R100m

Deal specifics

MedTech platform build

Regional hospital group

Timeline

Q2 2018

Geography

SA

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11

The investment thesis

Ethos AI Fund

Sector focus Activities that AI will impact

Applying the AI investment lens

Digitisation and big data

Access to exceptional analytics resources

Access to largest PE firm’s origination platform

Fund commitment and alignment

Focus on targets with multiplicative value chain

Implementing disciplined strategic analytics program

1 32

4

Selected Financial Services

Consumer Retail

Healthcare

Medtech

Media / Digital

Logistics

High Low

Susceptib

ility

to v

alu

echain

im

pro

vem

ent

Sophistication of analytics

Low High

Siz

e o

f data

Data driven decisioning

Small Big

Exponentia

l te

chnolo

gy &

M

acro

-tre

nds

Size and sustainability of moat

Value chain &

sophistication lensData and decisioning lens

Trends and moat

lens

Investment case AI uplift estimates – prioritisation and decision-making framework5

AI Value Chain

Opportunity

#1 - Δ%

#2 - Δ%

#3 - Δ%

#4 - Δ%

#5 - Δ%

#6 - Δ%

Technical difficulty

Estimates

Change Management

overhead

Estimates

Incentives?

Estimates

Power base?

Estimates

Cost & Resourcing Required

Estimates

Availability of Resources

Estimates

Executive Buy-in

Estimates

Risk Adjusted Priority

Intrinsic Value Lift adjusted for risk

Fund Size – R750 to 1,000m

Vintage – Not launched yet

Strategy – co-investment alongside Ethos funds in business

which can benefit from implementation of AI technologies

Principals – Roger Grobler, Nic Kohler

Customer engagement

Marketing

Product

Operations

Finance

HR

Risk

Technology

Cybersecurity

Supply chain

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730

1 118

102

286

Current Invested NAV Signed transactions Exclusivenegotiations

Proforma InvestedNAV

345 345

353 3

46

1 449

1 184

304 558

31 Dec 16 31 Dec 16 31 Dec 17 31 Dec 17

Opening Invested Capital New investmentsRealised growth NAV growthCashUndrawn commitments

12

Overview of the investment pipeline (Ethos Capital investment in Rm)1

Ethos Capital Fund and Direct Investment commitments Proforma commitments and available funding capacity3 4

Investment pipeline and liquidity analysis

Proforma Invested NAV2

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Consumerservices

ICT Industrialservices

Hospital MedTech FMCG FMCG

Mid Market Fund Healthcare Platform Mezzanine Fund

Fund VI Direct

16.9% Gross Invested NAV Growth 15.9% Net Invested NAV Growth

Note : Net new commitments estimated at 90% of commitments (Fund VII, Healthcare platform, Mezzanine Fund)

1 184

1 771

1 213

1 485

587 558

Cash at Dec 2017 Bank facility Investmentcapacity

Undrawncommitments

Unutilisedcapacity

Net newcommitments