EU Conference on TransAtlantic EU Conference on TransAtlantic Solutions to Sea Level RiseSolutions to Sea Level Rise

The Science, Politics, and Policy-The Science, Politics, and Policy-Making of Climate ChangeMaking of Climate Change

Dr. Glen SussmanDr. Glen SussmanDepartment of Political Science and GeographyDepartment of Political Science and Geography

Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

The Keeling CurveThe Keeling Curve

1919thth Century Century Greenhouse Effect PioneersGreenhouse Effect Pioneers

Joseph Fourier Jean Baptise, French Joseph Fourier Jean Baptise, French Mathematician, 1827Mathematician, 1827

John Tyndall, British Scientist, 1861John Tyndall, British Scientist, 1861 Svante Arrhenius, Swedish Chemist, 1896Svante Arrhenius, Swedish Chemist, 1896

Similar findings: warming of the Similar findings: warming of the earth is associated with a buildup earth is associated with a buildup

of of greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

The Scientific Basis ofThe Scientific Basis ofClimate ChangeClimate Change

Modern Timeline: 20Modern Timeline: 20thth Century Century– G.S.Callendar, British engineer in the late 1930sG.S.Callendar, British engineer in the late 1930s– Roger Revelle and Hans Suess of Scripps Roger Revelle and Hans Suess of Scripps

Institution of Oceanography in the 1950sInstitution of Oceanography in the 1950s– James Hansen, Head of the Goddard Institute of James Hansen, Head of the Goddard Institute of

Space Studies at NASA in the 1980sSpace Studies at NASA in the 1980s

Added to existing knowledge about Added to existing knowledge about the relationship between the relationship between

greenhouse greenhouse gases, the warming gases, the warming of the planet, and of the planet, and climate changeclimate change

The Scientific Basis of Climate ChangeThe Scientific Basis of Climate Change

Recent Research: 21Recent Research: 21stst Century Century– The U.S. National Research Council in 2001The U.S. National Research Council in 2001– The U.S. EPA in 2006The U.S. EPA in 2006– The IPCC 4th Report in 2007The IPCC 4th Report in 2007– The U.S. Supreme Court in 2007The U.S. Supreme Court in 2007– James McCarthy, Harvard biologist and President of the American James McCarthy, Harvard biologist and President of the American

Association for the Advancement of Science in 2009Association for the Advancement of Science in 2009– The EPA in 2009The EPA in 2009– The IPCC 5The IPCC 5thth Report in 2013 Report in 2013

Consensus about accumulations of Consensus about accumulations of COCO2 2 in the atmosphere and the in the atmosphere and the

warming warming of the planet and human of the planet and human activitiesactivities

as a major contributor of as a major contributor of greenhouse gases in the atmospheregreenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Politics of Global Warming and Politics of Global Warming and Climate ChangeClimate Change

The Problem and the PoliticsThe Problem and the Politics– Michael KraftMichael Kraft

Three generations of environmental problemsThree generations of environmental problems– First: Air and water qualityFirst: Air and water quality– Second: Toxic and hazardous wasteSecond: Toxic and hazardous waste– Third: Global in origin and effectsThird: Global in origin and effects

Included in third level problems are biodiversity, Included in third level problems are biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, global stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming/climate changewarming/climate change

– Politically controversial and affected by entrenched Politically controversial and affected by entrenched economic interestseconomic interests

The Climate Change “Debate” The Climate Change “Debate”

Three Major CategoriesThree Major Categories– Those who have formulated their views based Those who have formulated their views based

on science that human activities are a major on science that human activities are a major contributor to climate changecontributor to climate change

– Those who acknowledge global climate change Those who acknowledge global climate change but believe that it is due primarily to natural but believe that it is due primarily to natural conditions rather than human activitiesconditions rather than human activities

– Those who argue that it is a hoaxThose who argue that it is a hoax

Politics and Adaption StrategiesPolitics and Adaption Strategies

Politics as a Fundamental Hurdle to Effective Politics as a Fundamental Hurdle to Effective Policy-Making (i.e., adaption strategies)Policy-Making (i.e., adaption strategies)– The significance of domestic politics in The significance of domestic politics in

responding to climate changeresponding to climate change– Sources of political conflict Sources of political conflict

Entrenched economic interests (fossil fuels, Entrenched economic interests (fossil fuels, manufacturing, electoral incentives, benefits for manufacturing, electoral incentives, benefits for selected states and provinces)selected states and provinces)

Environmental movementEnvironmental movement

Adaption Strategies Adaption Strategies

The need for effective multi-level action in response to The need for effective multi-level action in response to climate change effectsclimate change effects– Issues: sea level rise, public health, wildfires, ocean Issues: sea level rise, public health, wildfires, ocean

acidification, coral reefs, biodiversity among othersacidification, coral reefs, biodiversity among others– What is the probability that national governments can What is the probability that national governments can

craft effective adaption strategies? craft effective adaption strategies? – Hampton Roads and Sea Level RiseHampton Roads and Sea Level Rise

Collection of cities with a history of conflictCollection of cities with a history of conflict What is the probability that Hampton Roads can work What is the probability that Hampton Roads can work

together to achieve effective adaption strategies in together to achieve effective adaption strategies in response to sea level rise? response to sea level rise?

Adaption Strategies and Sea Level RiseAdaption Strategies and Sea Level Rise(Borrowing from James Lester)(Borrowing from James Lester)

CommitmentCommitment

HighHigh LowLow

1 2 1 2

HighHigh

CapacityCapacity

LowLow 3 3 4 4

Adaption Strategies and Sea Level RiseAdaption Strategies and Sea Level Rise

Capacity and CommitmentCapacity and Commitment

1: High Capacity / High Commitment = progress1: High Capacity / High Commitment = progress

2: High Capacity / Low Commitment = obstruction2: High Capacity / Low Commitment = obstruction

3: Low Capacity / High Commitment = constraints3: Low Capacity / High Commitment = constraints

4: Low Capacity / Low Commitment = status quo4: Low Capacity / Low Commitment = status quo