EU Elections Weekly Update

17 May 2019

End of June 18 April

15 May

Last session of the outgoing Parliament

European Elections

European Council proposes a candidate

for the Commission President

Elected candidates negotiate to form political groups for the

upcoming Parliament’s 9th term

Inaugural plenary session of the newly-

elected Parliament

Lead candidates’ debate in the EU

Parliament

Member States propose members of the Commission

Exchange of views on multinational priorities,

Commission Work Programme

EP vote of consent of the new Commission +

European Council formally appoints the commission

Parliamentary hearings of Commissioners designate

Election of the Commission

President by the Parliament

New Commision takes office

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EU Elections Timeline

23-26 May

Jun

2 Jul

15-18 Jul

21-24 Oct

2-4 Jul

1 Nov

September - October

July - September November - December

On 2 July, the Parliament’s 9th term will start and MEPs will meet for its constituent session in Strasbourg. MEPs will elect the President, the 14 Vice-Presidents and the five Quaestors of the House and decide on the number and composition of Parliament’s standing and sub committees - thereby launching the new legislative term.

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The last Spitzenkandidaten debate: the Brussels debate

Six lead candidates from the main European political parties were present for the third debate for the future European Commission Presidency. The candidates present were Manfred Weber (EPP), Frans Timmermans (S&D), Jan Zahradil (Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists for Europe), Margrethe Vestager (ALDE), Nico Cué (European Left), and Ska Keller (Greens).

The debate was focusing on climate change and common taxes and wages.

Mr Timmermans plans to expand the Erasmus student exchange programme to professionals, boost the Youth Guarantee scheme and implement a European minimum wage standard. This proposal of a minimum wage is also supported by the Greens, the Left and the Liberals.

For Mr Weber, the response to unemployment is “good economic policy, infrastructure, research and trade with the establishment of an even stronger single market”.

Candidates from S&D, ALDE and the Greens found common ground on the need to establish a common European corporate tax and tax on digital giants.

Mr Zahradil believes that it is up to the Member States to tax corporation and not the EU. He supported a “scaled-back, flexible, decentralised” Europe that supports national policies.

More insights are available on EurActiv and Politico websites.

Fight against climate change

Common taxes and wages

Climate change is for the first time a priority of the European election campaign. One of the main questions debated by the candidates was how to tackle global warming.

Except for Mr Zahradil, all candidates gave their support to the European Commission’s proposed target of reducing carbon emissions to zero by 2050. Mr Timmermans believes the Socialists, the Greens and the European Left could unite a spectrum of progressive politicians on this matter. This alliance could go from “Tspiras all the way to Macron” in order to make sure climate change is at the top of the next Commission’s agenda.

Although Mr Weber supports the carbon neutrality objective for 2050, he believes green policies need to be implemented with consideration for the economy in order to preserve jobs. Candidates from the Greens and the Socialists took this opportunity to denounce the EPP’s opposition to more ambitious climate change during the last EP mandate.

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EP seat projections - May 2019

Seat projections for the next European Parliament EU28 – 16 May 2019

Source: https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/

Politico publishes a new set of projections every day on how the next chamber might look. The following is dated 16 May.

The European People’s Party is expected to remain the largest political grouping in the European Parliament after May’s election. The latest seat projections released by the European Parliament give the EPP 171 seats representing 25 national delegations.

The Socialists and Democrats will place second with 144 seats.

This projection takes into account the new group formed by the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats of Europe (ALDE) and Macron’s party “Renaissance”, who will create “a new group, a global group, a pro-European centrist group” as stated by Guy Verhofstadt during a Spitzenkandidaten debate. The group is projected to have 103 seats, growing by 35 seats.

The European Parliament’s analysis shows gains by Eurosceptic and far-right political parties. The Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) is expected to have 72 seats.

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Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups

Member State Parties

Belgium

France

Germany

Parti Socialiste (PS) / Francophone Social Democratic partySocialistische Partij. Anders (SPA) / Flemish Social Democratic party

Envie D’europe Écologique Et Sociale (Parti Socialiste)Parti Radical de Gauche (PRG)

Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) / Christian-Democrats Christlich-Soziale Union (CSU) / Christian-Democrats [Bavaria]

Christen-Democratisch & Vlaams (CD&V) / Flemish Christian-DemocratsCentre Démocrate Humaniste (CDH) / Francophone Christian-DemocratsChristlich-Soziale Partei (CSP) / German-speaking christian-democratic party

Renaissance - La République En Marche! (EM) - Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) - Agir / LiberalUnion des démocrates et indépendants (UDI) / Liberal

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) / Social-Democrats

Les Républicains (LR) / Conservative

Die Linke / Left-wing

Europe Écologie Les Verts (EELV) / Greens

Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) / Liberals

La France Insoumise (FI) / Left-wing

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Grüne) / GreensÖkologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP) / Greens

Rassemblement national (RN) / Right-wing

Freie Wähler / Liberal

Mouvement Réformateur (MR) / Francophone LiberalsVlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (Open VLD) / Flemish Liberals

Écologistes (ECOLO) / Francophone GreensDe Vlaamse Groenen (GROEN) / Flemish Greens

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA) / Flemish nationalists

Vlaams Belang (VB) / Flemish Far Right

European Party Affiliations

Party of European Socialists

Party of European Socialists

European People’s Party

European People’s Party

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

Party of European Socialists

Les Républicains (LR) / Conservative European People’s Party

Party of European Left

European Green Party

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

Now the People

European Green Party

Europe of Nations and Freedom Group

European Democratic Party

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe

European Green Party

European Conservatives and Reformists

Europe of Nations and Freedom

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Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups

Member State Parties

Ireland

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

Fine Gael / Centre-right

Partito Democratico (PD) / Social Democrats

Partido Popular (PP) / Conservatives

Labour / Centre-left

Labour / Social Democrats

Forza Italia (FI) / Centre-right

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), electoral coalition with Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) / Social Democrats

Conservatives

Lega / Right-wing

Ciudadanos (Cs) / LiberalsUnidos Podemos / Now the People Left-wing

Liberal Democracts

Fratelli d’Italia – Noi con l’Italia, NcI (FdI–NcI) / Right-wing alliance

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) / Left-wing Catalan Nationalism

Greens

Scottish National Party (SNP) / Scottish nationalism and social democracy

Brexit Party - UKIP

Change UK

Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) / PopulistLiberi e Uguali (LeU) / Left-wing alliance

VOX / Right-wingJunts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat) / Liberal Catalan NationalismIniciativa Feminista

Fianna Fáil / Centre-right

Sinn Féin / Left-wing nationalism, democratic socialism Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan / Left-wing Populism Social Democrats Party / Social democrats

European Party Affiliations

European People’s Party

Party of European Socialists

European People’s Party

Party of European Socialists

Party of European Socialists

European People’s Party

Party of European Socialists

Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists

Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

European Conservatives and Reformists

European Free Alliance

European Green Party

European Free Alliance

Not affiliated

European People’s Party

No European Affiliation

No European Affiliation

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party

No European Affiliation

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Member States Parties affiliations to European political groups

European Elections Projections by Member States

France

Ireland

Italy

France’s elections were until recently dominated by the Centre-left Socialists (PS) and the Centre-right Gaullists (LR, formerly UMP). This dominance was broken in 2017 by the populist far-right RN and Macron’s centrist party La Republique en marche.

But Macron’s popular support as President as well as his reform agenda suffered a major setback with the Gilets Jaunes protests.

Despite this, la Republique en Marche is expected to win a tight victory with 23.5-25% of the vote (so 23-25 MEP) which will join ALDE.

But the far-right RN might repeat its 2014 success by finishing first. Projections expect them to win at least 21 seats for the Europe of Nations and Freedom.

The Centre-right would obtain 11-13 seats for the EPP while the Greens will sin 8 seats for the Green-European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA). Melenchon’s France Insoumise should win 7 seats. According to the last projections, the Socialists are not expected to win any seats.

Since June 2017, Leo Varadkar from the liberal-conservative Fine Gael has been the Prime Minister (the Taoiseach). Until today, two political parties have alternated power (Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil) either alone or in coalitions with the social-democrats Labour party. The third major party is the left-wing nationalist Sinn Féin.

Fine Gael, the ruling party, is expected to get most of the votes (30%) and send four MEPs to the European Parliament for the EPP. Behind them, Fianna Fáil should obtain 24% of the votes and three seats, which will go to the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE).

With 20% of the votes, Sinn Féin is expected to obtain three MEP seats for the European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL).

Moreover, the Labour Party is expected to obtain a single seat and a coalition of independent candidates should obtain two MEP seats for other European groupings.

From the 1990s until 2018, Centre-left alliance led by the social democrats and Silvio Berlusconi’s Centre-right coalitions have dominated Italy political scene.

In 2018, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and right-wing populist Lega formed a new coalition with Giuseppe Conte as prime minister. Lega, led by Matteo Salvini has emerged as the dominant political force.

Recent polls indicate that it will become the dominant political force, with 25 MEP seats. The Five Star Movement could win 19 seats.

Berlusconi’s party Forza Italia (FI) is expected to win 7 seats for the EPP. The only other two political parties that may obtain seats are the national conservative Fratelli d’Italia (Fdl) and +Europa, which could get 4 seats each.

European Election Manifesto 2019

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European Election Manifesto 2019

All the major European parties have now published their manifestos for the upcoming European elections. The manifestos vary both in size and in the messages that they want to put forward. The overarching themes of the manifestos include migration, the environment and sustainability, the EU budget and the Eurozone, as well as the need to take advantage of and manage digitalisation.

Please see the manifestos of each party below to get more insights.

“Let’s open the next chapter for Europe together”

• Security and Immigration: Protect Europe’s borders against illegal immigration; encouraging the integration of recognized refugees; fight terrorism and organised crime ; stronger defence and military security.

• Environment: reducing environmental and climate impacts on the economy and society, defending the Paris Climate agreement, protecting biodiversity; achieve sustainable development globally.

• Democracy: Defend Christian values, human rights, human dignity, freedom and responsibility, equality between men and women, solidarity, rule of law, justice, pluralism and tolerance. Fight against fake news and hate speech; defend European social standards.

• Social: fight against health threats. Face challenges arising from an ageing population, antimicrobial resistance and chronic and infectious diseases; Fight against poverty

• Institution: Empower EU citizens.

European Peoples Party

Party of European Socialists

“A New Social Contract for Europe”

• Social: strong welfare states, social safety nets, and quality public services, tackle of unemployment and social exclusion and defends the right to quality healthcare, education and decent pensions; access to quality healthcare, childcare, education.

• Environment: Protection of the planet, fight climate change, protect biodiversity, stop pollution, improve mobility, sustainable production methods, better nutrition, reduced food waste, better animal welfare etc.

• Democracy: empowerment of citizen participation, enhances cultural diversity and equal rights, no discrimination, prejudice and sexism, and full respect of privacy and safety.

• Gender equality: equal rights for all, ending the pay and pension gaps, combatting sexual harassment and gender-based violence, women and men enjoy the same work-life balance and equal political participation.

• Tax: European fiscal rules must be reviewed to make sure that they foster sustainable growth and employment. Rules of the financial and banking sectors must be reviewed.

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European Election Manifesto 2019 ALDE PARTY

“Freedom, opportunity, prosperity: the Liberal vision for the future of Europe”

• Environment: Address climate change, ocean health and sustainable growth with increased international cooperation, a neutral economy, and sustainable infrastructure.

• Institutions: Re-negotiate the division of competencies between the EU and its Member States; More transparency and efficiency in the EU institutions.

• Funding: Efficient spending of the European money, manage all European funds in a more effective and transparent manner to promote investments and create a better control mechanism and more automatic sanctions.

• Trade: setting global standards in international trade, promote free and rule-based trade and support small and medium-sized enterprises.

• Digital: Build a fully-functioning Digital Single Market and encourage competition among companies in the digital space.

• Institutions: Establish a new effective mechanism to monitor violations of fundamental rights, civil liberties and rule of law in the member states; true reforms of institutions and policies.

• Migration and Security: More effective efforts to secure the EU’s external border and concrete actions with ever-closer cooperation to fight terrorism; Change the EU asylum and migration system.

Macron’s renaissance party will join ALDE in a new group. Their programme is built around 9 main proposals:

• Invest €1000 billion in climate transition and create a Climate Bank

• Tax digital giants in Europe

• Vote for a Directive on Company ethics

• Move towards a European army

• Build a European asylum policy and safeguard Schengen

• Open Erasmus for all

• Make access to European funds conditional on respecting the rule of law and social convergence

• Put in place the “Simone Veil pact”

• Lay the foundation for a new Union.

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European Election Manifesto 2019 European Green Party

“Time to renew the promise of Europe”

• Environment: Make the Paris agreement a reality, not financing fossil fuels, building a sustainable transport system, tighter limits on pollution, introduce a circular economy and move from industrial agriculture to sustainable forms of farming.

• Institutions: More transparency in the EU; an EU more democratic, effective and efficient. Reform the institutions and structures.

• Social: A sustainable economy and tax justice with a reform of the economic system.

• Democracy and Human Rights: no discrimination, defend gender equality, human rights, democracy and diversity.

• Migration and security: ensure that all migrants are treated with dignity and with regard for their basic human rights; Address the diverse security challenges that the European Union faces.

The European Left

“New hope is springing up in Europe”

• Institutions: Elected institutions of the EU have more power of action and control.

• Environment: Restructuring the economy based on the protection of the environment and climate, founded on the precautionary principle, through the use of environmentally-friendly technologies, lifelong social solidarity, creation of new jobs and support to disadvantaged regions.

• Strive for a society which transgresses the capitalist and patriarchal logic. Their aim is human emancipation, liberation of men and women from any form of oppression, exploitation and exclusion.

• Believe that European citizens are suffering from the policies of globalized capitalism implemented by governments in the interest of big capital and social gains.

• Build a project for another Europe and to give another content to the EU: automous from US hegemony, open to the south of the world, alternative to capitalism in its social and political model, active against the growing militarization and war, in favour of the protection of the environment and the respect of human rights.

• An Europe that rejects war as an instrument to settle international conflicts.

• Challenge the “stability pact” and the ECB orientations to work towards another economic and social policy in favour of full employment and training, public services and investment for the environment.

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European Election Manifesto 2019 European Free Alliance

“Building a Europe for All Peoples”

• Self-determination: recognition of all people, support of minorities, defend and promote language diversity; recognition of all nations as equals, respecting their rights and identities. Possibility for different peoples of Europe to create their own form of governance and institutions.

• Environment: limit the impact of human activities on the environment, create an ambitious energy policy.

• Gender equality: Public policies to stop violence against women.

• Democracy: Restoring dignity and equality

• Institutions: Revision of the European project, support the principle of the Citizens’ Initiative. More transparency. Bring citizens closer to their institutions.

• Young people: Commitment to ensure full opportunities for young people and to increase their participation in society.

Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists

“Return to the EU”

• Institutions: Revision of the EEAS and a cost-benefit analysis of the EU agencies including the possibility of funding them from sources outside the EU budget; a flexible integration for Member States.

• Security: An approach that respects the sovereignty of Member States

• Trade: Signature of at least 10 similar Free Trade Agreements by 2024. Equal access for all member states to opportunities offered by the common market.

• Euro: obligation to adopt the common currency must become an option.

• National parliaments: increase the powers of national parliaments by introducing a procedure to allow a third of national parliament to block legislation.

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Die Spitzenkandidaten: European parties’ lead candidates

Political Group What do I want for a better Europe? Lead Candidate

Several European political parties have already nominated their lead candidates for the European Commission Presidency; they will present and debate their political programmes for the future of Europe in live debates to be held during the election campaign in April and May.

European People’s Party (EPP)

What do I want for a better Europe? My ideas:

A better Europe creates opportunities: jobs, jobs, jobs –5 million new jobs for Europe with new and fair trade agreements, a strengthened Single Market and an ambitious Cohesion Policy. We cannot accept different living standards in Europe.

A better Europe is a Europe that protects: the security threats that we face can only be solved if we act together. We want 10,000 additional Frontex officers to control our external borders; we will connect all our existing databases to fight against criminals and we will return illegal migrants to their home countries.

A better Europe leads in the field of digital innovation: we have to establish a true Innovation Union that meets the challenges of the digital age. With the joint research strength of our continent, we could finally find cures for diseases like cancer and Alzheimer.

A better Europe sticks to its identity: Europe is more than just a market – Europe is a union of values. We will defend these values in Europe and throughout the world. This is why, for example, Turkey cannot be a Member of the European Union.

A better Europe inspires young people: Europe’s future must be driven by the enthusiasm and the creativity of its youth. This is why the next European Commission has to propose a massively stepped-up Erasmus+ programme and a long-lasting #DiscoverEU, giving Interrail passes to every 18-year old.

A better Europe gives people a greater say: Let us live democracy in Europe: we need more democracy and transparency with a stronger European Parliament and stronger national parliaments, an efficient and account-able Commission, and a rule of law which is respected everywhere.

More information here

Manfred Weber

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Party of European Socialists (PES)

Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE)

“Return the EU”

His ideas:

The great Review: do an assessment of the whole of the “acquis communautaire”

Flexible integration, not “one size fits all”: a form of cooperation wherein Member States create practical partnerships and are free to select the level of integration that suits them best, without being forced into a single pathway shared by the whole Union.

Security for citizens: The EU shall provide its borders states with means to arrange for sufficient national capabilities to guard their frontiers as well as securing the diversity of supplies and reducing the EU’s dependency on Russia.

EU as global leader in Free trade: Signature of more Trade Agreements as well as equal access to opportunities offered by the common market, and the same options for setting up parameters.

A multi-currency EU: the obligation to adopt the common currency must become an option.

More power to national parliaments: Introduction of two new measures:

• “Red-card procedure”: a third of national parliaments would be authorized to stop the legislative process at the EU level and they would be able to do so within a period twice as long as today.

• “Return ticket procedure”: by activating a review clause, a third or more national parliament will be able to propose removal of any piece of EU legislation and the EU institutions shall act upon the proposal”.

The ultimate goal – winning back trust

8 resolutions form the basis of the 2019 PES election manifesto:

1. Equal Societies: Empowering youth

2. Equal Societies: Social Europe

3. Equal Societies: Progressive economy

4. Equal Societies: For a stronger democracy in Europe

5. Equal Societies: A healthy environment and food, green growth and modern industries

6. Equal Societies: For a Europe of gender equality and empowered women

7. Equal Societies: For a fair, sustainable, peaceful and prosperous world

8. Equal Societies: For fair and progressive asylum and migration policies that work for all

Frans Timmermans

Jan Zahradil

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European Green Party

What European greens fight for:

• Fight climate change by phasing out coal, promoting energy efficiency and mobbing to 100% renewables

• Invest in a just Green economy, research and innovation

• Guarantee decent minimum income in member countries

• Uphold the rule of law and fundamental rights, increase transparency and fight corruption

• Defend the right to asylum and establish legal and safe channels for migration

• Make trains a real alternatives to planes in Europe

• Protect the health of our citizens by fighting air and water pollution and stopping plastic waste

• Produce good local, GMO and pesticide-free food, farming without cruelty to animals

• Guarantee free access to quality education, fairly paid internships and good jobs for young people.

• Fight for tax justice

• Fight for a feminist Europe, against gender-based violence and for equal right for all

• Stop arms exports to dictators and warring parties and foster development

The two lead candidates focus each on different points:

Ska Keller would like to change and reboot the EU. Her focus is also on European migration and trade policy, which she wants to make fairer and more sustainable.

Bas Eickhout’s driving mission on the other hand is the fight against climate change. He also wants to do more for the citizens of Europe.

Ska Keller, Bas Eickhout

European Free Alliance (EFA)

EFA’s roadmap for the upcoming elections rely on the idea of building a Europe of all people.

Catalan leader Oriol Junqueras was appointed as the first Lead Candidate. Junqueras is currently imprisoned for the crimes of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds for having organized a referendum on self-determination of Catalonia. This appointment is considered as a proof of commitment of EFA with the right of self-determination

Oriol Junqueras

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The Party of the European Left

The European Left priorities:

• End austerity policies, abolish the EU’s fiscal pact and implement a public investment program

• Change the mission of the ECB to include employment goals, and make it more accountable to elected politicians.

• Establish the democratic control of financial markets and the public, democratic ownership of banks.

• Promote tax reform with a minimum tax for big companies, as well as measures against tax evasions, and a financial transactions tax.

• Fight climate change by developing true renewable energies and energy savings, and improvement of public transport.

• Ensure food sovereignty by developing economically sustainable agriculture.

• Pull out of free trade agreements which threaten agriculture industry, audio-visual broadcasting, workers’ rights, the environment and culture.

• Legally protect whistle-blowers and journalists denouncing economic, financial and tax crimes.

• Defend migrants’ and refugee’s rights, establishing safe European corridors both for legal migration and receiving asylum seekers.

• End the NATO alliance and reject EU militarization.

The two lead candidates focus each on different points:

Violeta Tomic wants to be the voice of citizens at the UEropean level and advocate for stronger civil rights.

Nico Cué wants to return to the founding ideas of Europe and defend Europe’s economy. He also wants to protect workers from globalization.

Violeta Tomič, Nico Cue

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Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE)

The Alde Priorities:

• Invest in research, security, environment and tackling youth unemployment.

• Negotiate fair and sustainable international trade deals.

• Establish a new mechanism to monitor violations of fundamental rights, civil liberties, and rule of law in EU Member States.

• Create a solid legal framework for new technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, etc.

• Give every European a trusted and secure digital identity to log in and sign document safely.

• Make immigration agreements with safe countries in the Middle East and Africa to process and host refugees outside the Eu.

• Establish more legal ways to Europe for those that seek jobs, education, or want to invest in our economies.

• Strengthen and expand the EU emissions Trading System.

• Greater investment in sustainable infrastructure projects, particularly for rail .

• Give the EU parliament the right to initiate legislation and make voting in the Council more transparent.

ALDE put forward seven candidates as future president of the Commission as they do not believe in the Spitzenkandidaten process. This a way of protesting the process. The group would agree to such system if the citizens could directly elect the new Commission president..

Nicola Beer, Emma Bonino, Violeta Bulc, Katalin Cseh, Luis Garicano, Guy Verhofstadt, Margrethe Vestager

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