eu pv market overview · epia and its members epia represents 95% of the european photovoltaic...
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EU PV Market Overview
Eleni DespotouD t S t G lDeputy Secretary General
Policy Director
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
EPIA and its members
EPIA represents 95% of the European Photovoltaic Industryand 80% of the Global Photovoltaic Industry
T t l T f EPIA b (2007) 14 000 M€
Silicon feedstock: Wacker, REC, DC Chemical …Equipment and services: Applied Materials, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M+W
Total Turnover of EPIA members (2007): ~14.000 M€
Equipment and services: Applied Materials, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M W Zander, Meyer Burger, Vesuvius …Wafers and Ingots: Crystalox, Scanwafer, Pillar, Podolsky, PV Silicon …Cells: Q-Cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, SolarWorld , Sharp, Modules: Aleo, Solon, Schott Solar, Photowatt, Suntech Power, First Solar, Atersa…Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix Solar, …Inverters: KACO, SMA, Sputnik, Sunways, Fronius…Cabling: Multi-contact…
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
What does EPIA do?1. EPIA advocates its members interests at national
and EU level
2. EPIA is a key information provider about market, legislation and technology developmentslegislation and technology developments
3 EPIA provides an excellent Networking Platform3. EPIA provides an excellent Networking Platformthrough international Conferences, Workshops and working group meetingsworking group meetings
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Market historical development ofMarket historical development of cumulative PV installed capacity
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*estimated values
Future outlook of the PV marketGlobal cumulative PV capacity
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Historical market development by regionsHistorical market development by regions
2500
3000
W
1500
2000
owth
in M
W Ø 40 % growth per year
500
1000
1500
Mar
ket g
ro
0
500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
JAP EU USA ROW
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ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
Future outlook of the PV marketutu e out oo o t e a etRegional distribution of global PV markets
40% Annual growth
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Future outlook of the PV marketutu e out oo o t e a etPlanned Production Capacity
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Source: JRC, European Commission, Valencia, Sept 2008
Future outlook of the PV marketSegmentation of Market by Technology
80%
90%
100%
60%
70%
80%
30%
40%
50% New concepts
Thin Films
10%
20%
30%C-Si
0%2005 2008 2010 2015 2020
2007
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
National Policy situation:National Policy situation: Support Programs for PV
Feed-In-Tariff Europe:
• Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark• Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland UKSwitzerland, UK
ROW:• Australia, South Korea, India, Canada, Israel, Malaysia …
Other support programs• US (Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) Purchase Power Agreements (PPA)Standards (RPS), Purchase Power Agreements (PPA), • Investment reduction: Japan, Malta, Finland, Poland , Sweden, …
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
Different world PV market projections until 2010
MW
1400016000
EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario, XmasWorkshop, Dec. 2007)
EPIA (Policy driven Estimate, XmasWorkshop Dec 2007)
100001200014000 Workshop, Dec. 2007)
LBBW (Marktmodell Version 2.1,Januar 2008))
60008000
10000Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Decreasedincentives)Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Conservative)
200040006000 August 2007 Conservative)
Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Accelerated)
S i (F t P t ti D
02000
2006 2010
Sarasin (Forecast Presentation Dr.Fawer, Sarasin, Nov. 8th, 2007)
Deutsche Bank (Global MarketsResearch, Solar PV, July 2007)
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
y )Status: March 3, 2007
Success story: GermanySuccess story: Germany
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SpainSpain
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ItalyItaly
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FranceFrance
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S NNPVA
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Source. NNPVA
Development of the Various MarketpSegments (relative)
90%
100%
Yearly installed PV power (GWp)
1.6 2.3 60 3007
70%
80%
90%
RoW Off-Grid
40%
50%
60%o O G d
RoW On-GridUSA
20%
30%
40% JapanEU
0%
10%
2006 2007 2010 2020 2030
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
EU Market SituationMarket segments of on-grid PV Systems.
e g: GermanyImage: Sharp
B
IPV
mou
ntin
g
Image: Sharp
1%
p
Ef
fort
of m
residential homes 1-10 kWp multi family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants
10-1000 kWp
very large commercial > 1 MWp
Image: SchücoImage: Grammer
Roo
f top
40%49%
R
Image: Solarwatt
Image: SolarwattImage: BP
Gro
und
m
ount
ed
10%
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008 Size of the system
G m Image: GeosolImage: GeosolSource: BSW
EU Market SituationSegmentation by customers of some EU
market, 2007
5,8
8,719,7 13,3
3,4
3
11,3
90%
100%
IPP/solar funds
27 4
12,7
5,8
574,410,1
6,3
49 2
2,53
70%
80%
90% IPP/solar funds
Public customer27,4
1,46,5
29,741,4 49,2
40%
50%
60%
Agricultural Customer
Commercial Customer45,4
8 8
26,336,1 35,6 34
10%
20%
30%Commercial Customer
Private Customer8,8
0%
Germany Spain Italy France Greece
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
New target by 2020New target by 2020
SET plan (Strategic Energy Technology Plan)
12% of electricity demand by 2020 provided that the i t liti l f k i dappropriate political framework is ensured.
S l i d i i i i (CSP d PV) Solar industry initiative (CSP and PV)
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Competitiveness between ElectrictyCompetitiveness between Electricty Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price
Higher price increases mostprobable
Grid parity already reached in Southern regions even more in liberalized
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Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999 and 2008)regions … even more in liberalized electricity markets for peak power prices
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
„Solar architecture is not about fashion,it is about survival“ Sir Norman Fosterit is about survival Sir Norman Foster
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008TüArena, Sport stadium, Tübingen, Germany Image: Suntechnics, Sunways
Potential of BIPVPotential of BIPV
Module and Cell EfficiencyyTechnology Thin Film Crystalline
Silicon(a-Si) (CdTe) CI(G)S a-Si/ µSi Dye s Mono Multi(a-Si) (CdTe) CI(G)S a-Si/ µSi Dye s.
cellsMono Multi
Cell efficiency 4-7% 8-10% 7-11% 6-8% 2-4%
16-22% 14-16%
13-19% 12-15% Module efficiency e c e cy
Area Needed per KW (for modules)
~ 15 m² ~ 11m² ~ 10m² ~12m² ~7m² ~8m²
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
National Policy situation: Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for BIPV
Country Installed Power
Feed-in-tariff(2008)c€/ KWh
Digression Rate
Duration CAP / Target
c€/ KWh
France All 57 No 20 years1500KWh/KWp 1800KWh/Kwp (overseas)
Italy
<3 49
2% in 2009 20 years
Target 2012- 1200MW
Target 2016- 3000MW
< 20 46
>20 44 3000MW>20 44
Switzerland
<10 0,90 (55,7)*
8% yearly25 years
<30 0,75 (46,4)*Switzerland (from 2010)
25 years<100 0,67 (41,2)*
>100 0,62 (38,4)*
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
* Swiss franc (01/09/2008): 1franc= 0.62 €
National Policy situation: Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for BAPV
Installed Feed in tariff DigressionCountry Installed Power
Feed-in-tariff(2008) c€/ KWh
Digression Rate Duration CAP / Target
France All32
No 20 years1500KWh/KWp
y42 (overseas) 1800KWh/Kwp (overseas)
Italy
<3 44
2% in 2009 20 years
Target 2012- 1200MW
Target 2016< 20 42
Target 2016- 3000MW>20 40
<30 46,758% yearlyC id
<100 44,48Germany
Corridor20 years No cap
,
<1000 43,99
>1000 43,9910% yearlyCorridor
Spain
<20Max 2MW
34No 25 years
(2009)27 MW
(2010)33 MW
(2011)40 MW
>2032 240 MW 300 MW 360 MW
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008
Max 2MW32 240 MW 300 MW 360 MW
National Policy situation: Some Countries with special Feed In Tariff forSome Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for
ground base systemsInstalled Feed-in-tariff DigressioCountry Installed Power
Feed in tariff(2008) c€/ KWh
Digression Rate Duration CAP / Target
Italy
<3 40
2% in 2009 20 years
Target 2012- 1200MW < 20 38Italy 2% in 2009 20 years
Target 2016- 3000MW
< 20 38
>20 36
<100 8% yearly
Germany 35,5Corridor
20 years No cap>100 10% yearly
Corridor (M i l d) (I l d )
Greece
<= 100(Mainland)50,28
(Islands) 45,28
No 10 + 10 possible
>100(Mainland)45,82
(Islands) 40,28>100 45,82 ,
Spain<20
Max 10MW32 No 25 years
(2009)233 MW
(2010)207 MW
(2011)162 MW
IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008