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Aurel SchubertDirector General Statistics
Euro area statistics:achievements and
challenges
Joint Seminar on Central Bank Statistics
Bali, 20 and 21 March 2017
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EU Member Stateswhich have adoptedthe euro
Economic and Monetary Union(EMU)
EU Member Stateswith a special status
EU Member Stateswith a derogation
FI
BELU
NL
DE
FR
ESPT
IT
AT
SL
MT
BG
ROHU
PL
CZ
SK
EE
LV
LT
SE
DK
UKIE
CY
GR
HR
European integration
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Key characteristics of the euro area
Sources: for euro area and EU: ECB, Eurostat, national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations; for the United States, Japan and China: national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations.
* Purchasing Power Standards (PPSs) in euro, calculated on the basis of PPP rates relative to the euro area (Euro 19 = 1).
Total population (millions)
GDP (PPP*, € trillions)
GDP per capita (PPP*, € thousands)
Share of world GDP (PPP*, %)
Exports (goods and services, % of GDP)
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
Gross saving (% of GDP)
Reference year: 2015 (2014)
339
10.5
30.8
12.0
27.5
19.7
23.1
510
14.8
29.0
16.9
17.9
19.5
21.1
322
13.5
42.0
15.7
12.5
19.8
17.8
127
3.7
28.8
4.5
17.9
23.4
22.5
1,375
14.9
10.8
17.2
22.1
44.0
48.7
€ -19 EU-28
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro and granular data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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“Policy-making and, indeed, decision-
making are only as good as the
information on which they are based”
Seventh ECB Statistics Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 15 October 2014
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/sp141015.en.html
ECB President Mario Draghi
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Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
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ESCB statistics are vital for:
• ECB’s monetary policy
• Other (growing number of) policy functions
financial stability, systemic risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment
systems oversight, risk management, banking supervision
Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
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Statistical support to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)
Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
ESCB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps
ESCB statistics are also a public good
Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
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•
• The EU reforms following the crisis
• Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools) and to
enforce policy compliance
Financial supervisorypolicies
Fiscalpolicies
Macro-economicpolicies
Statistics are key to EU policy-makers’ decisions
Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
ESRB“Risk-Dashboard”
For macro-prudentialpolicy
Commission scoreboard for
“macro-imbalance” procedure
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro and granular data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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European statistics by the ESCB
European statistics produced by Eurostat and national statistical offices
(e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics)
Increasingly in close interaction with Supervisory Authorities
Principal Global Indicators: BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, WB
Commercial data providers and market sources
Monetary and financial statistics
External statistics
Securities statistics
Quarterly euro area accounts
Supervisory data
Other statistics
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Other statistics
by the ESCB
ECB is a big user and a big producer of statistics
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EU National Central Banks
ECB
EU National StatisticalInstitutes
Responsibility
• General economic statistics
• Non-economic statistics
• Monetary and Financial statistics
• Quarterly financial accounts
• Financial stability statistics
• Supervisory statistics
Memorandum of Understanding
Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics
European System of Central Banks (ESCB) /
Eurosystem
European
Statistiscal System
(ESS)
European Statistical ForumStatistics Committee
European Statistical System Committee
Responsibility
ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
Shared responsibilities• Balance of Payments• European Sector Accounts • Statistical Infrastructure
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Two statistical systems
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Harmonisation and cross-country comparability are essential
team effort Network of National Central Banks/National (Supervisory) Competent Authorities
- Perform tasks in accordance with EU/ECB legal acts
- Responsibility for meeting the ECB’s/SSM requirement
- Collect data from reporting agents, other national statistical authorities,other national sources
ECB:
- Quality assurance, compilation and publication of euro area aggregates
Shared tasks:
- Conceptual/development work, development of legal/technical infrastructure(ECB in lead)
- Participation in European/international statistical committees
ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
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Compiling euro area aggregates
• Usual approach: build from national contributions
• Importance of: harmonisation of the national contributions
• Some euro area aggregates are a simple sum of (harmonised) national data,
but some are not
• National money stock includes deposits held by residents with banks located in the
country concerned. Euro area money stock includes deposits held by residents of
all euro area countries with banks (MFIs) anywhere in the euro area
it exceeds the sum of national money stocks
by the amount of cross-border depositing within the euro area
• National balance of payments statistics measure all cross-border transactions of
residents of the country concerned
– the euro area b.o.p. excludes cross-border transactions within the euro area
– gross flows in the euro area b.o.p. fall short of the sum of national b.o.p. flows
by the amount of these cross-border flows within the area
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Core ESCB/Eurosystem statistics 1/2
Monetary & financial statistics
• Monetary aggregates and counterparts
• Balance sheet statistics of
Monetary Financial Institutions MFIs
Investment Funds IFs
Financial Vehicle Corporations FVCs
Insurance Corporations - ICs, and Pension Funds - PFs
• Statistics on average interest rates: deposits from / loans to firms deposits from / loans to households for consumption or housing;
• Financial markets price and volume, yield curves, payments and securities settlement statistics, measuring policy transmission and financial integration
• Financial stability statistics and indicators – also to support the ESRB and the SSM, Financial integration indicators, STEP Market statistics
External statistics
• Balance of payments, international investment position (incl. international reserves), effective exchange rates, international role of the euro
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Core ESCB/Eurosystem statistics 2/2
Euro area accounts• Integrated quarterly accounts (non-financial and financial) by institutional sector
encompassing transactions, other flows and balance sheets
Government finance statistics• Revenue, expenditure, deficit, debt, deficit-debt adjustment
Surveys• Survey on access to finance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the euro area
• Household Finance and Consumption Survey
General economic statistics• Seasonally adjusted HICP, residential property price, short-term indicators,
timely labour market statistics (e.g. euro area negotiated wages developments)
Supervisory statistics• Financial Reporting (FINREP), Common Reporting (COREP), etc.
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro and granular data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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Phase B – May 2010Sovereign debt crisis and again banking crisis
Phase A - post Lehman Brothers – Sept 2008banks’ rescue, government guarantees
EU Financial SupervisionESAs/ESRB - Nov 2010
Phase C - May 2012Banking Union announced
ECB’s banking supervision – Nov 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Single Resolution Board – Jan 2015
2015
Single Resolution Fund – Jan 2016
2016
New data demands resulting from the crisis
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• ECB’s new responsibilities for macro- and micro-prudential policies
• Heterogeneity: relevance of country and sectoral imbalances
• Market fragmentation and complexity of financial instruments
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ESCBstatistics
ECB’s Monetary Policy
Banking Supervision
(SSM)
Macro prudential policies
(ECB, ESRB)
New data demands resulting from the crisis
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More detailed data
• Country data
• Micro-databases
• Distributional data
• Reporting burden
• Confidentiality
• Compiler’s resources
Increasingdemands
Facingconstraints
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Responding to new demands
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro and granular data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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Operation
Development
• Individual banks’ balance sheet and interest rates
• Register of (financial) institutions and affiliates database (RIAD)
• Granular securities databases
- Centralised Securities Database (CSDB)
- Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS)
• Money Market Statistical Reporting
• Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) Access to Finance
• Survey on household finance & consumption
• Analytical granular credit and credit risk datasets (loan-by-loan) AnaCredit
• Securities Holding statistics for Large Banking Groups (LBGs)
• RIAD incl. corporates (as borrowers and guarantors in credit)
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More micro-data
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Money market statistical reporting (MMSR)
individual transactions relating to various segments of
the money market
• When? started 1 April 2016
• What? daily operations on a transaction-by-transaction basis in four market segments: secured, unsecured, FX swaps and OIS
• Who? 52 largest banks in the euro area
• Why? information on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions; provide information to market participants on market functioning
• Legal basis? ECB Regulation ECB/2014/48
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Micro-data on markets
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Micro-data on a “security-by-security” basis
Centralised Securities Database (CSDB)
-Who issues what?
Securities Holdings Statistics Database (SHSDB)
-Who holds what?
Example:Issuer A issues a security B which is held by Holder C at the amount of X EUR
Issuer referencedata
Issuer identifier
Issuer name
Issuer sector
Issuer country
…
Instrument reference data
Instr. Identifier
Instrument type
Amount outstanding
Price
…
Holder referencedata
Sector
Country
…
…
…
Holding data
Holding amount
Amount type
Valuation type
Consolidation flag
…
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Analytical Credit Dataset (AnaCredit)
Multipurpose set of harmonised granular data on credit
and credit risk
• When? to be implemented in a stepwise approach; the first stage to be introduced in September 2018
• What? bank loans (and guarantees) to legal entities above €25,000e.g. non-financial corporations (not households, at least in the first stage!)
• Who? all banks in the euro area
• For whom? central banking purposes e.g. monetary policy, research, risk management, macro-prudential supervision… and statistics
• Legal basis? ECB Regulation 2016/13
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Micro-data on loans
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro and granular data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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Standardisation
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ECB statistics conform to the extent possible to and influence on international standards for macro statistics
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Legal Entity Identifier (LEI)
Unique Trade and Product Identifier (UTI, UPI)
Money Market Statistical Reporting (MMSR) is
ISO 20022 standard compliant
• ISO approved in January 2016 MMSR messages
for being officially and globally recognised
ECB supports and contributes to develop standards for micro statistics
Standardisation
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro-data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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“The big challenge for statistics in the
coming years is not only “many more
numbers”, but, perhaps much more so,
the reconciliation of statistical
information collected in support of
monetary policy and financial stability
with the until now rather separate world
of supervisory information”
Seventh ECB Statistics Conference, Frankfurt am Main, 15 October 2014
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/sp141015.en.html
ECB President Mario Draghi
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Integration
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IntegrationLong-term harmonisation
managing different areas of statistical and supervision information as parts of a single system
of practices, methodologies and processes currently followed for data production
Integration
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Integration
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Three key elements
Banks’ Integrated Reporting Dictionary (BIRD)
Common language with the industry
Logical description of data at the banks and transformation rules to produce existing reports
European Reporting Framework (ERF)
“One report” replacing the multiple, overlapping reports
Vision: single and integrated ERF for ECB and EBA (ITS)
ECB Single Data Dictionary (SDD)
Common language within the ECB
Methodological and semantic integration of existing European reporting frameworks
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IntegrationIntegration
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Pri
mary
Data
(Op
era
tio
nal
Syste
m)
Rep
ort
ing
data
ware
ho
use
Pri
mary
Rep
ort
s (
ER
F)
Seco
nd
ary
Rep
ort
s
Banks NCB/NCAs ECB
Transformations by banks
Transformations by banks
Transformations by NCBs/ NCAs
Bank Integrated Reporting Dictionary (BIRD)
ECB’s Single Data Dictionary (SDD)
Transformations defined by banks
Transformations defined by banks and authorities in
close collaboration
The Role of BIRD, ERF and SDD
European Reporting Framework (ERF)
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Integration
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2 ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
1 Increased policy relevance of central bank statistics
3 Responding to new data demands
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3.1 More micro-data
3.2 Standardisation
3.3 Integration
3.4 Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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Strategy: multiple channels & user-friendly access
ECB website
• Press releases
• Interactive graphics
• Publications
Statistical Data Warehousehttp://sdw.ecb.europa.eu
“Our statistics” website https://www.euro-area-statistics.org/
• NEW!! - Insight to Euro area statistics
ECB statistical tablet app
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Improving communication of ESCB statistics
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Principal Global Indicators
Improving communication of ESCB statistics at G-20 level
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• “Insights to euro area statistics” presents a new statistical conceptproviding descriptive statistics supported by visualizations
Statistics highlight
Visualisation
Reuse the data
Improving communication of ESCB statistics -Insights to euro area
statistics
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Thanks you for your attention!!
Any questions
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Annex
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Article 338.1 TFEU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute
ECB legal actsadopted by the ECB Governing Council
Treaty of the EU
European Statistical SystemCouncil Regulation 223/09
European System of Central BanksCouncil Regulation 2533/98
ESCB
Teamwork of two European statistical systems cooperating under separate legal frameworks
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Regulations adopted by European Parliament and Council
Treaty on the Functioning of the EU
Committee for Monetary, Financial
& Balance of Payments Statistics
European Statistical
Forum
ESS
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ECB’s production of statistics as a team effort
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ESCB Statistics Committee (STC) and its Working Groups
are at the core of the production of ESCB statistics
ESCB Statistics Committee (STC)
ECB Executive Board
ECB Governing and General Councils
Decision-making bodies for ECB statistics
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WG on Monetary and
Financial Statistics
WG on Euro Area Accounts
WG on External Statistics
WG on General
Economic Statistics
WG on Government
Finance Statistics
WG on Statistical
Information Managemen
t
WG on Securities Statistics
WG on AnaCredit
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• European System of Accounts (2010)
… complemented by legal definitions, compilation guides and
manuals, at international and European level
• System of National Accounts (2008) and other manuals
– IMF Balance of Payments Manual, 6th edition (2009)
– IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide: prepublication draft (MFSM 2016)
– IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2014)
• ECB/ESCB Statistics implemented in full the new standards
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Complying with international statistical standards