Europe yes or no?Déjà vu (again)

Michael Marsh

Introduction• What do we know about referendum voting?

– It’s the government, stupid– It’s party loyaties– It’s the issues, (but what issues?)– What do people now about the referendum anyway? When it doubt use proxies.

• How can we know?– Cross sections, post ref surveys: problems of recall on key variables, problems of

rationalisation, problems of establishing causal sequences– Panels, better equipped to deal with sequences of change, although concerns over

effects of being studied– Rolling cross sections, some panel advantages without some of the disadvantages

• Data here: cross section surveys, but done immediately after each referendum; questions about issues and perceptions of treaty and analyse links to vote

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What changed 2008 to 2009

• Opinions on underlying issues, on trust, on EU, on consequences??– To some degree more favourable - on neutrality, trust in

party and perceptions of consequences - but not entirely so, notably the unpopularity of the government; more information too

• The importance of such things for the voter’s decision?– Helpful changes re EU + and govt, weaker links to views on

neutrality, stronger link to economic future• New circumstances?• Was 2009 a more rational, better informed decision?

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Who changed their mind?

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2008 voters in 2009

2008 behaviour measured by recall; 2009 surveys pre- and post Lisbon2 vote5

Stable /Unstable No 08-09 by age

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Stable /Unstable NO by Gender

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Stable /Unstable NO by Occupation

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Stable /Unstable NO by Party

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Support for Integration and Change

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As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view: “Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR “Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union”

Changing perceptions of the Treaty

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Lisbon will erode Neutrality

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Lisbon will hasten abortion

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Lisbon will change business tax

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Lisbon will reduce our influence in EU

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Lisbon will strengthen the protection of workers' rights

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Lisbon will increase unemployment

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Lose Commissioner/Keep Commissioner

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Lisbon will simplify decision making

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Fewer “bad” consequences

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The Protest Vote 2008 2009

Rating the government’s performance

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Lack of trust in party

Trust own party to do/say right thing on economy, health, EU and social issues23

Parties and the NO vote

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Europe and the the Vote2009 and 2008

As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view: “Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR “Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union” 25

Identity and Vote2008 2009

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Opinion on neutrality and vote

Ireland should accept limitations on its neutrality so that it can be more fully involved in EU co-operation on foreign and defence policy 27

Subjective understanding

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Knowledge Oct 2009

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Knowledge of EU and NO vote

2008 data taken from Millward Brown survey30

Knowledge of EU and NO vote

Knowledge from 2009 survey; vote in 2008 is recalled31

Effect of knowledge on 2008 NO vote

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Opinion change June2008-Oct2009

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Economic benefits of Ratification2009 2008

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Significant influences on vote2008 2009

Govt voter X

Opposition voter X

Trust X

Pro neutrality X

Govt satisfaction X

Pro integration X X

Irish/European X

Bad consequences X X

Help Workers rights X X

Commission X

Simplify decisions X

Gender X

Occupation X

X means p < 0.1035

Conclusions

• People THOUGHT they knew more, and arguably had less misleading views on Treaty

• Opinions on some underlying issues, on trust, on EU, on consequences broadly more favourable

• Some changes too in importance of POSITIVE things for the voter’s decision and decline of negative ones – protest vote – in importance

• New circumstances with respect to economy, and guarantees[?]

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Some outstanding questions…• When did people change their mind –

somewhere between June and November• How widespread was knowledge of guarantees,

or does this not matter• Were more positive perceptions cause of

consequence of Yes vote• Did the fact that Yes outspent the No side matter

in altering perceptions• Did the greater involvement by civil society help

weaken protest vote

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