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EUROPEAN TOURISM

TRENDS & PROSPECTS

APRI2016

EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q3/2019) 1

EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS

QUARTERLY REPORT (Q3/2019)

A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group

of the European Travel Commission (ETC)

by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)

Brussels, October 2019

Copyright © 2019 European Travel Commission (ETC) ETC Market Intelligence


EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q3/2019)

All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately

and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While we en-

courage distribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate

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The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the ex-

pression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European Travel Com-

mission.

Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database (http://www.tourmis.info), STR,

IATA, and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics

(www.tourismeconomics.com) and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.

Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61,

1000 Brussels, Belgium

Website: www.etc-corporate.org

Email: [email protected]

ISSN No: 2034-9297

This report was compiled and edited by:

Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence

Group.

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FOREWORD

Europe continues to be the leading destination worldwide and has displayed a positive picture halfway

through the year in 2019. The region saw 4% growth in international arrivals over the same period a

year ago based on latest figures released by the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). Although

growth is mostly driven by intra-regional demand, large long-haul source markets continue to make a

significant contribution, particularly the US with the dollar up against many other currencies making

travel to Europe more affordable. Europe’s decade-long expansion has been sustained despite external

shocks, signalling the sector’s maturity and resilience. Nevertheless, the region’s market share contin-

ues to tai l off (from 54% in 2008 to 51% in 2018) mainly due to increased competition from emerging

markets in Asia and the Pacific.

Furthermore, recent news headlines portray a rather gloomy picture of what concerns the wider tourism

sector, for example, the wider effect of the US-China trade war, state of the world economy, Brexit

negotiations, weakening economy in key markets, and plunging business and consumer confidence.

The dominant mood of uncertainty in the sector seems to be challenging destinations’ strategic planning

to shield the industry from undesirable impacts.

Although at a slower pace than in the last two years, European destinations continue to report increas-

ing numbers of tourist arrivals, supported by visa relaxation policies, improved air connectivity, expand-

ing middle classes, and strong demand from the region’s largest long-haul source markets. Worth noting

is that a sluggish expansion in some instances does not necessari ly imply underperformance as this is

offset by solid tourism earnings reflecting an increase in terms of value. Traditionally a destination’s

success has been measured in simple growth terms, in recent years the impacts associated with ram-

pant tourism growth have driven destinations to adapt their visions and strategies aiming for more sus-

tainable and inclusive tourism growth.

The latest edition of the European Tourism Trends and Prospects (Quarterly Report) will shed light on

the broad-based performance of the European tourism destinations in times of uncertainty , a torpid

economy, and increasing importance of a sustainable tourism development. This report also includes a

scenario analysis on three most l ikely outcomes of Brexit and their potential impact on the tourism

sector (aviation, sentiment, and travel faci l i tation, etc.) and the wider economy.

Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit)


TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 5

Tourism Performance Summary 2019 ...................................................................................... 8

Global Tourism Forecast Summary........................................................................................ 11

Recent Industry Performance ............................................................................................... 12

Air Transport.................................................................................................................. 12

Accommodation ............................................................................................................. 15

Special Feature: Impacts of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on Travel & Tourism ............................................. 17

Key Source Market Performance ........................................................................................... 21

Key Intra-European Markets............................................................................................. 21

Non-European Markets ................................................................................................... 26

Origin Market Share Analysis................................................................................................ 30

United States ................................................................................................................. 31

Canada......................................................................................................................... 32

Mexico.......................................................................................................................... 33

Argentina ...................................................................................................................... 34

Brazil ............................................................................................................................ 35

India ............................................................................................................................. 36

China ........................................................................................................................... 37

Japan ........................................................................................................................... 38

Australia ....................................................................................................................... 39

United Arab Emirates ...................................................................................................... 40

Russia .......................................................................................................................... 41

Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................... 42

Overview....................................................................................................................... 42

Eurozone ...................................................................................................................... 44

United Kingdom ............................................................................................................. 45

United States ................................................................................................................. 46

Japan ........................................................................................................................... 47

Emerging Markets .......................................................................................................... 48

Appendix 1 ........................................................................................................................ 49

Appendix 2 ........................................................................................................................ 50


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EUROPEAN DESTINATIONS EXHIBITED A SLOW BUT STEADY EXPANSION

OVER THE SUMMER MONTHS

Despite a wobbly world economy, European tourism demand remains stable and in positive territory.

Prolonged US-China trade disputes are weighing down on global growth while, despite the recently

agreed extension until January 2020, tourism industry fears around a make-or-break Brexit withdrawal

deal remain. Although external risks are failing to dissipate, destinations continue to grow at a modest

pace and the overarching regional outlook remains unchanged (3 -4% in international tourist arrivals

2019).

Recent data indicate a slower expansion with only one third of reporting destinations surpassing growth

levels registered over the same period a year ago. Montenegro (+18%) maintained growth momentum

as it welcomed a soaring influx of Western European holidaymakers, while the depreciation of the lira

continued to play a vital role in Turkey’s tourism performance (+15%). Lithuania and Slovakia both saw

9% growth through June, with the latter benefitting as host of the Ice Hockey World Championships. In

the Netherlands (+7%), the shifting focus of its marketing campaigns are driving tourists to travel off the

beaten path in line with its new vision, shifting from destination promotion to destination management.

More affordable sun and beach destinations have a role to play in Greece’s flatlining performance (-

0.5%) based on data to June. Data for the summer months, however, are expected to back up this

claim.

Iceland has seen arrival numbers contract (-14%) and is expected to register a decline in 2019 for the

first time since 2010. The nation’s tourism slowdown is expected to enable a more sustainable and

inclusive sector according to industry experts who are hopping to return to normal growth levels (4-5%

annually). Travel to the UK (-1%) also showed a gloomy picture due, among other reasons, to the

uncertainty around the impact of a no-deal Brexit on travel between the UK and Europe.

Foreign visits to select destinations2019 year-to-date, % change year ago

Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-Sep) by destination

https://youtu.be/JQXCdO0RQpU

https://www.nbtc.nl/web/file?uuid=fcf0fd79-ff6c-4b3f-a5f5-5cf6b5e2aa83&owner=388ad020-d235-4624-86a4-d899f855a216&contentid=67397


EUROPEAN LOW-COST CARRIERS: “SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST”

Over the span of three years, a number of European budget airlines have gone bankrupt, reflective of

how vulnerable the industry is to political instability, financial risks, overcapacity, and belligerent com-

petition. Monarch, Airberlin, Cobalt Air, the budget transatlantic carrier Wow Air, and Adria Airlines are

some of the airlines that ceased operations in recent years. Amidst the fog of Brexit and global economic

volatility, industry observers expect further airline failures. European airline growth measured in revenue

passenger ki lometres slowed from 6.9% the first four months of the year to 5.4% based on data to

August reflecting a general slowdown in global economic growth.

EUROPE’S KEY LONG-HAUL SOURCE MARKETS. ALL DOOM AND GLOOM?

In China, appetite for European tourism remains strong amid a relative decline in the economy. China

reported its slowest rate of expansion for nearly three decades with 6% GDP growth for this year’s third

quarter. The Chinese government has already taken measures to stabilise the economy (e.g., tax cuts,

infrastructure investments, etc.), while a "phase one deal" between China and the US was announced

earl ier this month. Nevertheless, virtually all reporting destinations registered increasi ng flows of Chi-

nese travellers with Montenegro featuring as the star performer.

Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin

America

Mid. East N. America World

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2017

2018

2019

Source: IATA

% year, RPK

Annual International Air Passenger Growth

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mo

nte

negro

Mo

naco

Serb

ia

Cypru

s

Lithua

nia

Cro

atia

Slo

venia

Spain

Neth

erla

nds

Est

onia

Port

ugal

Den

mark

Sw

itzerla

nd

Rom

ania

Sw

eden

Fin

lan

d

Bulg

aria

Turk

ey

Pola

nd

Icela

nd

Czech R

ep

La

tvia

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Hun

gary

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Norw

ay

UK

Germ

an

y

Slo

vakia

Arrivals

Nights


2019 year-to-date*, % change year ago

Montenegro, 105% (A) & 95.5% (N)Monaco, 104% (N)

Slovakia, -23.5% (A) & -22.4% (N)

Chinese visits and overnights to select destinations

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3033564/china-doubles-value-infrastructure-project-approvals-stave

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/u-s-china-said-to-reach-partial-deal-could-set-up-trade-truce-k1melw60


Recent figures also show a handful of European destinations reporting growth from the US travel mar-

ket. Stand-out increases were observed in South-Eastern Europe (Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus). Alt-

hough a healthy US economy and a strong dollar against the euro are encouraging tourist flows from

the US, troubles stemming from President Trump’s trade policy which already has a bearing on global

expansion will also drag down the US economy in terms of growth, although recession is not l ikely.

A more modest economic growth outlook is expected in Russia due to structural constraints and sanc-

tions. Hence, traditional summer destinations for Russian holidaymakers are losing competitiveness to

the likes of Turkey owing to its affordability, climate, and tourism offering in line with Russian travellers’

wishes. Destinations that saw fastest growth from this market were Serbia (+30%) and Slovakia (31%)

albeit from lower volumes.

UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MIDST OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTIES.

Global economic growth for 2019 has again been trimmed by the IMF to 3%, the slowest rate of expan-

sion since the world financial crisis (2008–2009). Despite the positive dynamics of European tourism

over the last decade, uncertainties of trade war, Brexit, and a weakening global economy are impacting

business and consumer confidence and will inevitably impact the development of the broad-based tour-

ism industry. According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) international tourist arrivals to

Europe were up 4% halfway through the year compared to the same period in 2018. While things appear

stable in the European tourism sector amid external challenges, uncertainties, and the poor shape of

the global economy, the greatest risk l ies in not seizing the opportunities at hand by encouraging more

sustainable and inclusive tourism approaches.

“European destinations need to develop long-term sustainable management solutions to enable tourism

to flourish, rather than just merely grow. This requires constant monitoring and an adequate analysis of

the tourism impact on the economy, the environment, and local communities in order to obtain action-

able insights from all industry actors. ETC firmly believes that cooperation between public and private

stakeholders at a European, national, and regional level is essential to bring together the necessary

networks and their expertise to find viable solutions in the long-term interests of destinations, the tourism

sector, and the visitor economy.” said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director European Travel Com-

mission (ETC).

Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit)

With contribution from the ETC Market Intelligence Committee

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

http://www2.unwto.org/press-release/2019-09-09/international-tourism-4-first-half-2019-world-tourism-organization-reports



http://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligence


TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2019

SUMMARY

Year-to-date growth in all reporting destinations was significantly slower than in the previous two

years, up 3.4% on a weighted average basis

The realisation of current year-to-date growth in Turkey, where arrivals have grown 14.7% to August, would equate to an additional 6.7 mil l ion arrivals compared to 2018.

The collapse of Thomas Cook in September will l ikely weigh on demand in the short -term.

Some recent industry data point to subdued demand in Europe over recent months, with a struggling

manufacturing sector threatening to bring down the more resilient service sector. Weak forward-looking

indicators and persistent external threats continue to mean risks are on the downside for the eurozone

outlook. Nonetheless, the majority of European destinations continue to post healthy rates of arrivals

growth. But growth is slower than in previous years with the softer economic backdrop seeping into

travel demand.

European year-to-date growth has slowed following subdued demand during

the early summer months

Year-to-date growth in all reporting destinations was significantly slower than in the previous two years,

up 3.4% on a weighted average basis. This represents a marginal slowdown from earlier in the year

when growth was 3.5%, suggesting a more subdued summer period than has been typical for most

destinations in recent years. By comparison, European growth in 2018 was 4.5% on the same basis.

The top growth destination in Europe was Montenegro which reported 18.1% growth in arrivals (and

9.0% in overnights) based on data to August compared to the same period a year ago. This marks a

slowdown from 50% growth in arrivals based on data to April. Slowdown was inevitable with growth in

the early part of the year attributable to Montenegro’s efforts to extend its season into non-summer

months including the development of winter tourism infrastructure.

Turkey has continued to build on momentum achieved earlier in the year with arrivals up 14.7% from a

year earlier according to data to August (arrivals growth was 12.2% based on data for the first four

months of the year). Double-digit growth was reported from all source markets for which data are avail-

able, supported by a weak l ira. The current rate of arrivals growth, i f this holds, would equate to 6.7

mil l ion more arrivals in 2019 compared to 2018.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Mo

nte

negro

Turk

ey

Lu

xem

bou

rgN

eth

erla

nds

Slo

vakia

Lithua

nia

Port

ugal

Slo

venia

Pola

nd

Ita

lyM

onaco

Serb

iaN

orw

ay

Ma

ltaC

roatia

Est

onia

Den

mark

La

tvia

Aust

ria

Germ

an

yB

elg

ium

Czech R

ep

Irela

nd R

ep

Cypru

sF

inla

nd

Spain

Bulg

aria

Sw

itzerla

nd

Hun

gary

Gre

ece

UK

Sw

eden

Rom

ania

Icela

nd

Arrivals

Nights



Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations


The collapse of Thomas Cook in September could result in slower growth later in the year. The collapse

is potentially significant since Thomas Cook brings some 600,000-700,000 tourists to Turkey each year,

according to the head of Turkey’s Hoteliers Federation. However, the actual scale of the impact is un-

l ikely to be as severe and Turkey’s 2019 prospects remain positive overall. This is despite some down-

side risk owing to its association with the confl ict in Syria.

The Netherlands was also among the fastest growing European destination according to the latest

available data to July, with both arrivals and overnights up from all source markets for which data are

available. Arrivals growth was particularly notable from Russia (20.5%), India (15.7%), and China

(14.8%). This growth comes amid efforts to curb and redirect tourism growth away from Amsterdam to

lesser-known parts of the country, with the associated marketing campaigns stimulating demand to the

Netherlands as whole.

Growth from Germany and the UK was slower but more significant as these are the Netherlands’ first

and third largest source markets respectively (accounting for 30% and 12% of total arrivals in 2018).

Latest year-to-date growth suggests a 7.1% increase in German arrivals and a 9.9% increase in arrivals

from the UK. If current rates of growth were to hold for the remainder of 2019, arrivals growth from

Germany and the UK would account for 45% of total growth.

Growth to Amsterdam was particularly strong despite efforts to entice tourists away from the capital to

other cities. However, as of next year, an overnight stay in Amsterdam will cost an additional €3 per

person per night for hotel stays in addition to the current tourist tax of 7% of the nightly hotel rate. Some

growth this year may be in anticipation of this hike .

Slovakia has also enjoyed some strong growth in arrivals (9.0%) and overnights (9.5%) so far in 2019.

A significant increase in the number of arrivals and overnights were reported from Canada (44.8%),

Switzerland (87.1%), Norway (35.6%), Sweden (53.3%), and Russia (31.0%). This growth is l ikely

l inked to Slovakia hosting the Ice Hockey World Championship in May and is not indicative of perfor-

mance for the year as a whole.

Slovenia has enjoyed robust growth in arrivals and overnights so far in 2019, with arrivals up 7.9% and

overnights up 4.6% based on data to August. A recent win for Ljubljana and a runner-up spot for Bled

at this year’s ITB Berlin – the world’s largest tourism trade fair – are indicative of efforts being made by

Slovenia to attract demand. Ljubljana won in the category “Best in Cities” with its campaign promoting

local food production and Bled received the second prize in the category “Best in Europe” as a reward

for the town's efforts in environment protection .

However, Slovenia is now suffering from the loss of Adria Airways which accounted for almost 60% of

i ts international seat capacity, as well as the impact from the collapse of Thomas Cook. Adria’s collapse

at the end of September means the loss of direct fl ight connections to around 24 countries, including

the Czech Republic, Spain, and Switzerland. Other main markets will also be impacted as Adria Airways

accounted for almost all seat capacity from Austria to Slovenia, almost 88% from Germany to Slovenia,

and just over half from France to Slovenia. Whilst capacity is l ikely to be restored in the coming months,

demand growth to Slovenia is l ikely to stutter due to the scale of the losses.

Monaco has also benefitted from marketing to Asian source markets, with significant growth in Japa-

nese and Chinese arrivals and overnights. An office in Japan and one in Singapore to target the Chinese

market have clearly been productive in growing arrivals. More generally, a new marketing campaign

launched last September has l ikely raised the country’s profi le abroad.

Cyprus has reported slower growth compared to recent years with some large declines in German and

French arrivals due to the collapse of two airlines which service those source markets, namely Cobalt

Air (fl ights from France) and Germania (fl ights from Germany). Demand from these markets should

return once air capacity returns. Several large events in March have spurred sizeable growth from

China, albeit from low volumes.

Romania is on course to record an annual decline in arrivals for the first time since 2010, which are

down 5.2% based on data to August compared to the same period a year ago. China (18.2%), Sweden


(2.4%), and the US (0.6%) are the only three source markets from which growth has been reported.

These declines are said to be a result of the government’s failure to develop the tourism industry.

Iceland is also on course to record an annual decline in arrivals for the first time since 2010 based on

latest 2019 data, with arrivals 14.3% lower compared to a year based on data to September. Arrivals

to Iceland began to slow in 2018 following a number of years of significant growth. The strong krona,

the collapse of Wow Air, issues with Boeing’s 737 Max, and rising labour costs have all contributed to

the current downturn.

TOURISM PERFORMANCE, 2019 YTD

Country % ytd to month % ytd to month

Austria 3.3% Jan-Aug 1.4% Jan-Aug

Belgium 2.8% Jan-Jun 2.8% Jan-Jun

Bulgaria 1.2% Jan-Aug

Croatia 4.5% Jan-Aug 1.0% Jan-Aug

Cyprus 0.6% Jan-Aug 2.1% Jan-Jul

Czech Republic 1.2% Jan-Jun 2.7% Jan-Jun

Denmark 4.0% Jan-Aug

Estonia 4.4% Jan-Aug 3.7% Jan-Aug

Finland 1.4% Jan-Aug 1.8% Jan-Aug

Germany 2.1% Jan-Jul 3.0% Jan-Jul

Greece -0.5% Jan-Jun

Hungary 1.1% Jan-Aug -0.1% Jan-Aug

Iceland -14.3% Jan-Sep

Republic of Ireland 2.2% Jan-Aug

Italy 1.7% Jan-Jun 5.6% Jan-Mar

Latvia 0.2% Jan-Apr 3.4% Jan-Apr

Lithuania 9.3% Jan-Jun 7.8% Jan-Jun

Luxembourg 10.1% Jan-Jun 1.8% Jan-Jun

Malta 4.7% Jan-Aug 3.0% Jan-Aug

Monaco 5.3% Jan-Aug 3.8% Jan-Aug

Montenegro 18.1% Jan-Aug 9.0% Jan-Aug

Netherlands 7.4% Jan-Jul 9.8% Jan-Jul

Norway 4.9% Jan-Aug

Poland 5.1% Jan-Jul 5.7% Jan-Jul

Portugal 8.3% Jan-Jul 4.5% Jan-Jul

Romania -5.2% Jan-Aug

Serbia 4.9% Jan-Aug 5.2% Jan-Aug

Slovakia 9.0% Jan-Jun 9.5% Jan-Jun

Slovenia 7.9% Jan-Aug 4.6% Jan-Aug

Spain 1.5% Jan-Aug 0.3% Jan-Aug

Sweden -1.1% Jan-Jul

Switzerland 1.0% Jan-Aug 1.2% Jan-Aug

Turkey 14.7% Jan-Aug

UK -1.0% Jan-Jun

Source: Visit Britain (UK only) and TourMIS (http://w w w .tourmis.info)

Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country. Available data as of 15.10.2019

International Arrivals International Nights


GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY

Tourism Economics’ global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound basis in the follow-

ing table. These are the results of the Global Travel Service (GTS) model, which is updated in detail

three times per year. Forecasts are consistent with Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic outlook accord-

ing to estimated relationships between tourism and the wider economy. Full origin-destination country

detail is available online to subscribers.

GTS VISITOR GROWTH FORECAST, % CHANGE

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

data/estimate/forecast e f f f f e f f f f

World 5.9% 3.6% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 5.6% 3.3% 2.8% 4.0% 3.9%

Americas 2.5% 2.1% 2.8% 4.0% 3.6% 4.3% 2.4% 2.2% 3.3% 2.9%

North America 3.6% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 3.0% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8%

Caribbean -0.3% 6.4% 6.0% 5.1% 4.4% 1.3% 4.5% 1.8% 2.3% 3.0%

Central & South America 1.0% 1.2% 5.2% 5.9% 4.7% 0.1% -0.5% 2.7% 4.4% 3.6%

Europe 6.1% 3.5% 2.1% 3.3% 2.9% 5.6% 3.3% 2.4% 3.7% 3.3%

ETC+3 5.9% 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% 4.5% 3.3% 2.1% 3.4% 3.1%

EU 4.9% 2.8% 2.0% 2.8% 2.4% 4.8% 3.3% 1.9% 3.4% 3.1%

Non-EU 11.2% 6.4% 2.7% 5.0% 4.6% 8.6% 3.4% 3.9% 5.0% 4.3%

Northern 1.0% 2.3% 1.8% 2.8% 2.6% -0.4% 1.4% 1.2% 4.1% 4.0%

Western 6.0% 2.6% 1.6% 2.7% 2.4% 5.4% 2.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.8%

Southern/Mediterranean 7.9% 5.0% 1.5% 3.1% 2.9% 7.6% 5.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8%

Central/Eastern 4.1% 2.8% 4.1% 4.6% 3.7% 10.6% 5.1% 3.5% 4.8% 3.9%

- Central & Baltic 5.3% 3.1% 4.7% 3.7% 2.4% 8.0% 5.7% 2.9% 4.2% 3.2%

Asia & the Pacific 6.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.9% 6.9% 3.5% 3.7% 4.9% 5.2%

North East 6.1% 2.9% 4.3% 4.8% 4.9% 6.8% 2.8% 4.1% 5.1% 5.4%

South East 7.4% 5.0% 2.8% 4.1% 4.7% 8.1% 4.5% 1.8% 3.9% 4.2%

South 6.3% 1.6% 7.0% 7.3% 6.0% 5.6% 6.4% 5.8% 6.6% 6.3%

Oceania 3.8% 2.6% 3.4% 4.9% 5.3% 4.7% 3.3% 4.2% 3.8% 5.6%

Africa 12.0% 6.8% 3.5% 5.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.8% 3.3% 4.9% 3.9%

Middle East 4.5% 4.4% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 3.9% 4.5% 4.6% 5.1% 5.8%

* Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional f low s

** Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations

The geographies of Europe are defined as follow s:

Northern Europe is Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norw ay, Sw eden, and the UK;

Western Europe is Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Sw itzerland;

- Central & Baltic Europe is Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia;

ETC+3 is all ETC members plus France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom

Source: Tourism Economics

Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia,

Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey;

Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,

Russian Federation, Slovakia, and Ukraine;

Inbound* Outbound**


RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

SUMMARY

Average growth in RPKs over the past three months was 4.1% (propped up by strong growth in

June), well below the average rate of growth over the past 10 years of 6.1%. This reflects a general slowdown in economic activity growth globally.

Year-to-date air passenger growth has slowed more rapidly in Europe than any other region, fal l ing from 6.9% based on data to Apri l to 5.4% based on data to August.

Based on year-to-date hotel data to September, occupancy rates in Europe grew 0.4% but ADR was 4.0% lower compared to a year ago. This led to a 3.6% decline in European RevPAR.

ADR remains the chief driver of RevPAR growth – except in Eastern Europe where it is a drag.

AIR TRANSPORT

International air passenger traffic has continued to grow throughout the summer months, but there has

been a sustained slowdown in growth in 2019. In particular, there was a notable slowdown in both July

and August air passenger traffic compared to May and June. Average growth over the past three

months was 4.1% (propped up by strong growth in June), well below the average rate of growth over

the past 10 years of 6.1%. This slowdown coincides with a general slowdown in economic activity within

a number of key global markets.

Recent monthly performance has dragged year-to-date RPK growth down sl ightly, by 0.1 percentage

points to 4.5%. This marks the slowest rate of air passenger growth for 10 years (the previous low level

fol lowed the global financial crisis in 2008). This mirrors the slowdown in economic growth with world

GDP growth also slowing to rates not seen since 2009. Nonetheless, global indicators have been little

changed since June, which suggests some stability on the horizon in the form of a slower rate of growth

rather than an imminent fal l -off.

Only Africa looks l ikely to trump 2018 growth this year (helped by the fact that it was the slowest growing

region in 2018). This growth has been aided by a return to economic growth in South Africa – the

region’s second largest economy after Nigeria – in Q2 following a contraction Q1. However, real GDP

slumped again in Nigeria in the second quarter of 2019.

This year’s slowest growing region for air passenger demand looks l ikely to be the Middle East with

fal ling business confidence and geopolitical tensions in parts of the region combined with some key

airl ines going through a process of structural change all weighing on deman d.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

ao

ût-

09

janv.-

10

juin

-10

no

v.-1

0

avr.

-11

sept.-1

1

févr.

-12

juil.

-12

dé

c.-1

2

ma

i-13

oct.-1

3

ma

rs-1

4

ao

ût-

14

janv.-

15

juin

-15

no

v.-1

5

avr.

-16

sept.-1

6

févr.

-17

juil.

-17

dé

c.-1

7

ma

i-18

oct.-1

8

ma

rs-1

9

ao

ût-

19

Total

3mth mav

10-year av

Source: IATA

% year, RPK

International Air Passenger Traffic Growth


In Europe, year-to-date air passenger growth is sti l l growing, albeit slowing more sharply more than any

other region in recent months. Growth slowed from 6.9% in the year to April to just 5.4% based on data

to August. This points to a very subdued peak summer period. Slowing economic growth in some of

Europe’s key economies, ongoing Brexit uncertainty, and weaker business confidence, have all con-

tributed to the softening demand outturn. North and Latin America RPK growth has also slowed from

earl ier in the year by around half a percentage point.

In general, air passenger growth has slowed across the past four months. Africa posted some very

strong growth in June (11.7%), benefitting from a generally positive economic backdrop (including im-

proved stability in a number of countries), as well as improving air connectivity. Strong growth in June

was also evident in the Middle East, with demand up 7.8% compared to June last year. Unlike Africa

however, this growth was due to the earlier timing of Ramadan which fell entirely in May this year. The

observation of Ramadan typically dampens demand, as can be seen from the subdued growth in May.

Asia/Pacific demand growth has ticked up sl ightly in recent months. This is despite some weakness in

the region: economic growth in Australia and India has been relatively subdued, China is fighting a trade

war with the US, and ongoing protests in Hong Kong have resulted fl ight cancellations. All of these

factors have pulled growth down well below their long-run average. The closure of India’s Jet Airways

is sti l l weighing on demand as a sizeable supply-side interruption, but the eventual restoration of this

supply should offer a boost to RPK growth in the region as the void is fi l led by other carriers.

Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin

America

Mid. East N. America World

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2017

2018

2019

Source: IATA

% year, RPK

Annual International Air Passenger Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

Source: IATA

% year, RPK

Monthly International Air Passenger Growth


Nonetheless, global passenger load factors (PLF) are at an all-time high, at 85.7% of capacity in July

and August, and 83% of capacity for the year-to-date. This uptick in load factor from earlier in the year

has been driven by some mild reversal of the downward trend on Middle East capacity, but more gen-

erally capacity growth remains slower than air passenger demand.

Regionally, Europe, North America, and Latin America all posted record load factors in the month of

July. The Middle East posted its highest load factor in four years in August. These capacity constraints

and the l imited ability of airlines to reduce air fares further may have stifled some demand in recent

months.

Load factors in Europe have been growing steadily for a number of years despite some very robust

capacity growth. But this capacity growth has slowed in recent months, and the collapse of both Thomas

Cook and Adria Airways in September will put further upward pressure on load factors in the near term.

While their collapses were significant, only a transient impact on capacity is anticipated, with other

airlines expected to fill the void in due course. Indeed, this process has already begun with Easyjet and

Jet2 both announcing an expansion of their services within Europe. Other airlines are trying to add

capacity on longer-haul routes, for example BA and Virgin are looking to increase transatlantic routes

to replace some lost capacity. It is worth noting that the collapse of these airlines was not due to lack

of demand, but rather underlying structural issues within the businesses in what has become an ex-

tremely competitive environment.

65

70

75

80

85

90

ao

ût-

14

no

v.-1

4

févr.

-15

ma

i-15

ao

ût-

15

no

v.-1

5

févr.

-16

ma

i-16

ao

ût-

16

no

v.-1

6

févr.

-17

ma

i-17

ao

ût-

17

no

v.-1

7

févr.

-18

ma

i-18

ao

ût-

18

no

v.-1

8

févr.

-19

ma

i-19

ao

ût-

19

Africa Asia/Pacific

Europe Latin America

Middle East N. America

Source: IATA

Load factor, % 12mth mav

International Air Passenger Load Factor

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2017

2018

2019

Source: IATA

Monthly load factor, %

European Airlines Passenger Load Factor


There are some concerns about the impact of Thomas Cook’s collapse on t ravel demand within the

region. However, the collapse of Monarch in October 2017 had no notable impact on capacity beyond

an immediate dip. In fact, capacity growth actually ticked-up in subsequent months to more than offset

the immediate impact. This reaction demonstrates that airlines are ready to react and capitalise on any

such opportunities to expand into new markets. It also suggests that capacity constraints exist on the

infrastructure side and without any significant expansion of airport capacity at key hubs, load factors

are l ikely to remain high.

As was the case following the collapse of Monarch, we expect capacity lost through the collapse of

Thomas Cook and Adria Airways to return later in 2019. This will facilitate continued air passenger and

arrivals growth in Europe.

ACCOMMODATION

Accommodation performance was relatively positive across all regions based on year-to-date data to

September. Occupancy rate growth has been relatively subdued, albeit against a backdrop of higher

average daily rates (ADR) compared to the same period last year. Despite concerns of slowing global

demand, the fact that hoteliers have been able to grow rate and occupancy paints a positive picture.

Hotels in Asia Pacific saw declines in occupancy compared to the same pe riod a year ago. Recent

protests in Hong Kong have had a significant impact on hotel performance in the northeast Asian city-

state. China’s ongoing trade war with the US is also l ikely to be weighing on demand, with Chinese

outbound travel weaker as a result. Recently imposed restrictions on the online resale of products ac-

quired overseas in China has stifled Chinese demand for shopping spree holidays. In Japan, the gov-

ernment's recent trade restrictions on Korea and its removal from Japan’s l ist of preferred trading part-

ners has resulted in campaigns to boycott Japanese goods and trips to one of their nearest neighbours.

All of these factors have weighed on performance in the region as a whole. This weaker demand placed

downward pressure on ADR which was markedly lower compared to a year ago when priced in US

dollar terms (down 3.9%), with revenue per available room (RevPAR) down 5.4% as a result.

Performance growth in the Americas has been somewhat subdued so far in 2019. Occupancy rates

were essentially unchanged from a year ago. Nonetheless, room rates have increased 0.7% over the

period with RevPAR following (0.6%). The strength of the dollar has made other regions cheaper for

those travelling from the US, diverting potential “domestic” demand away from the Americas. At the

same time, the persistent strength of the US dollar means room rates in a number of destinations in the

Americas have grown when priced in most other currencies compared to the same period a year ago.

This has made the US a less attractive destination, with travellers opting for destinations where they

wil l have more spending power.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2017

2018

2019

Source: IATA

ASK, monthly average, % change year ago

European Airlines Capacity


Hotel occupancy rates in the Middle East and Africa have grown 1.9% compared to a year ago, despite

the rampant growth in hotel supply in some destinations in the region. As with other regions, a stronger

dollar has translated to lower ADR compared to the same period a year ago. While this may have stifled

demand from non-dollar travellers (ADR grew in euro terms, for example), the region may have bene-

fitted from direct US demand, as well as from the fact that a number of key source markets within the

region use dollar-pegged currencies.

Occupancy rates in Europe grew slightly in the year-to-September, up 0.4% compared to the same

period a year ago. The strong dollar has made Europe a more attractive destination with the exchange

rate yielding an effective real price decrease in ADR for those who travel on the US dollar (including

currencies pegged to it). These price movements are also likely to have spurred some intra-European

demand since the cost of travelling outside Europe is relatively more expensive compared to a year

ago. ADR in Europe was 4.0% lower based on latest available data which meant RevPAR fell 3.6% on

account of just 0.4% growth in occupancy.

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Asia/Pacific Americas Europe Middle East/Africa

OccADR ($)RevPAR ($)

Source: STR

Jan-Sep year-to-date, % change year ago

Global Hotel Performance


SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPACTS OF A ‘NO DEAL’

BREXIT ON TRAVEL & TOURISM

SUMMARY

A ‘no deal’ Brexit would affect tourism flows through a series of macroeconomic channels, senti-

ment impacts, and potential travel disruption.

A ‘no deal’ Brexit would cause a 7% drop in UK outbound trips in 2020 and an 8% drop in 2021,

relative to baseline projections.

The impact from a ‘no deal’ Brexit would have a permanent downward effect on UK outbound

travel volumes.

Spain is the most heavily impacted country in traveller volumes, and Ireland the most in percent-

age terms.

BACKGROUND

The EU has agreed to extend the most recent deadline for Brexit from 31 October until the end of

January 2020. However, under this agreement the UK could leave the EU earlier i f i t completes the

necessary ratification, leading some to refer to the delay as a ‘flextension’. Oxford Economics continues

to see an ‘orderly’ Brexit as the most l ikely outcome, but ‘no deal’ remains a possibi lity. This piece

assesses the potential impact on UK inbound and outbound travel in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

A ‘no deal’ Brexit would affect tourism flows through a series of macroeco-

nomic channels, sentiment impacts, and potential travel disruption

The most recent delay follows a period of considerable uncertainty. The UK Government and EU ten-

tatively agreed to the terms for a withdrawal agreement in recent weeks. However, the UK Parliament

refused to comply with the Prime Minister’s request to compress parliamentary scrutiny and debate of

the withdrawal bill to a period of only 3 days. Previously, Parliament had passed a law requiring the

Government to request an extension to Article 50 to avoid a ‘no deal’ Brexit on 31 October. This law,

combined with Parliament’s refusal to comply with a shorter period to scrutinise the withdrawal bill,

necessitated the ‘flextension’.

MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF A ‘NO DEAL’ BREXIT

The impacts of a ‘no deal’ scenario on travel and tourism demand can be separated into economic and

other non-economic effects. For the economic impacts, two key channels are identified (outlined more

ful ly in Oxford Economics research briefings from November and December 20181):

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – forecast to be 1.8% lower than the baseline under

‘no deal’ in 2021 relative to the baseline forecast (which assumes the withdrawal agree-

ment is implemented and a transition period fol lows).

2. Exchange rates – sterl ing is anticipated to depreciate and approach parity with the

euro, and both are expected to fal l against a basket of other currencies.

1(a) ‘Travel & Tourism: The Brexit Impact – Quantifying the travel & tourism impacts of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, 16 November 2018

https://w ww.oxfordeconomics.com/publication/dow nload/321570

(b) UK Research Briefing, 6 December 2018

https://w ww.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/fdf4ac5f-5d3b-49c0-87a7-1b9578093b96

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/publication/download/321570

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/fdf4ac5f-5d3b-49c0-87a7-1b9578093b96


There are also anticipated impacts on prices, but the net outcome of these is difficult to determine. A

weaker sterl ing would be expected to increase prices for UK travellers (not least because oil trades are

priced in US dollars), but the relationship between costs and airfares is not consistent, and weakness

in demand may lead airl ines to reduce fares.

Beyond these, non-economic channels reflect the impact of weaker ‘sentiment’ (which we believe to be

of a similar scale to the more direct economic impacts) and other potential disruption such as passport

issues and border delays.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS

A significant negative impact on UK outbound travel is anticipated, driven by both economic (GDP and

exchange rate) and non-economic channels (airline disruption, increased passport regulation, and bor-

der delays).

A ‘no-deal’ Brexit would cause a 7% drop in UK outbound trips in 2020 and an

8% drop in 2021, relative to baseline projections

We estimate that the combined effect of the economic and non-economic factors reduces UK outbound

travel by 7% relative to baseline projections in 2020, and 8% lower in 2021. This equates to approxi-

mately 8 million fewer outbound trips by UK residents in 2021, compared to baseline expectations.

By comparison, the impact on UK inbound travel is estimated to be much smaller, with the positive

economic impact from weaker sterling (and lower prices for inbound visitors) partly offsetting negative

sentiment effects. However, in net terms the negative sentiment effects on UK inbound travel are ex-

pected to outweigh the positive gains through economic factors.

The impact on domestic travel and tourism in the UK are also relatively small. While reduced UK out-

bound travel should stimulate domestic travel through increased ‘staycations’, this wil l be more than

countered by weaker consumer spending.

The impact from a ‘no deal’ Brexit would have a permanent downward effect

on UK outbound travel volumes

A ‘no deal’ Brexit is expected to have an immediate and sharp downward impact on UK outbound travel,

with a decline in outbound travel in 2020. While a return to positive growth is expected in 2021, the pace

of growth is well below baseline expectations. By 2021, UK outbound travel would be 8% lower than

2,5%

4,6%

-5,2% -5,0%

-2,7%

-0,4%

2020 2021

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Economic drivers

Non-economic impacts

Cumulative impact


% difference relative to baseline

Impact on UK inbound T&T, 2020-21


the baseline, equating to 8 million fewer outbound trips. By 2023, estimated growth is marginally higher

than under the baseline, but with lower GDP levels and a sti ll-weak pound, a rebound in UK outbound

travel wil l remain elusive in the long term.

The impacts of this reduced UK outbound travel will not be experienced uniformly across European

destinations. The most heavily affected countries are those for which the UK is an especially prominent

source market.

Spain is the most heavily impacted country in traveller volumes, and Ireland

the most in percentage terms

In volume terms Spain is the most heavily impacted country in 2021 with an estimated 1.3 million fewer

UK arrivals to the country relative to baseline projections, plus a knock-on effect of around 300,000

fewer visitors due to slower growth elsewhere in Europe. This follows an impact of around 0.9 million

fewer visitors from the UK in 2020, leading to a total reduction of more than 2 million trips from the UK

over the two years.

121

113

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Baseline

Scenario


Visitors (mns)

Outbound travel from UK

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

-1,8

-1,6

-1,4

-1,2

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

Visitors (mns)

Percentage of arrivals


Visitors (mns)

Europe: Impact on total arrivals of 'no deal' Brexit, 2021

Percentage of total arrrivals


In percentage terms Ireland is the most heavily impacted with arrivals 5% lower in 2021 relative to the

baseline forecasts and 3.5% lower in 2020; almost two-thirds of this can be attributed to lower arrivals

from the UK.

POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DISRUPTION

There are likely to be some additional non-economic impacts. These have also been built into the as-

sumptions in the modelling and were discussed in greater detail in the original November 2018 Brexit

piece.

1. Market access:

The UK is part of the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA), which allows UK-based airlines to fly

freely within a zone covering the EU and some neighbouring countries. When the UK leaves the EU, it

will cease to be part of the ECAA, and under ‘no deal’, UK carriers would need to be 50% European-

owned to access the Area. However, the European Commission has committed to a contingency agree-

ment covering basic air connectivity until 24 October 2020, even in the event of ‘no deal’. However,

airlines have been dealing with these complex issues and modelling assumes only l imited, temporary

disruption at the end of 2020.

2. Passports and travel documentation:

Passports should work even if there is ‘no deal’ but there are several obstacles which may make travel

less straightforward. UK citizens travelling to the EU and associated countries should have six months

left on their passport (and a passport less than ten years old), and the European Parliament has agreed

that a visa will not be needed to visit the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, or Switzerland. However,

healthcare EHICs may not be valid in a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Drivers wil l also need an International Driving

Permit or some other permit (depending on country), Green Cards for car insurance, and a ‘GB’ sticker.

In addition, in some countries, UK visitors will require the use of a separate queuing lane to citizens of

the EU, meaning potentially longer wait times to pass through immigration, although both Spain and

Portugal have decided that this wil l not be the case there.

EUROPE: IMPACT OF 'NO DEAL' BREXIT ON GLOBAL AND UK ARRIVALS

World 1,581.7 100.0 1,579.7 92.0 -0.1% -8.0%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%

Europe 785.4 73.3 781.9 68.3 -0.4% -6.9%

Western Europe 515.0 61.2 512.8 57.5 -0.4% -6.1%

Eastern Europe 270.3 12.2 269.1 10.8 -0.5% -11.1%

Ireland 12.3 5.2 11.7 4.8 -5.0% -8.3%

Iceland 2.6 0.3 2.5 0.2 -2.7% -8.3%

Cyprus 4.3 1.5 4.2 1.3 -2.6% -9.8%

Denmark 12.9 1.2 12.6 1.1 -2.4% -7.9%

Malta 2.9 0.7 2.8 0.7 -2.4% -10.5%

Sweden 15.7 1.1 15.4 1.0 -1.8% -7.4%

Spain 89.6 19.7 87.9 18.4 -1.8% -6.5%

Norway 6.6 0.3 6.5 0.3 -1.6% -7.2%

Poland 22.4 1.9 22.0 1.7 -1.6% -11.7%

Hungary 18.6 0.9 18.3 0.8 -1.5% -12.3%

Bulgaria 10.8 0.5 10.7 0.5 -0.9% -11.6%

Czech Republic 15.3 0.8 15.2 0.7 -0.9% -11.6%

Switzerland 11.5 0.8 11.4 0.8 -0.7% -6.5%

Netherlands 19.8 2.5 19.7 2.4 -0.6% -5.7%

Portugal 16.6 2.4 16.5 2.3 -0.6% -5.8%


Total Arrivals Arrivals from UKTotal Arrivals Arrivals from UK Total Arrivals Arrivals from UK

2021 baseline (mns) 2021 'no deal' Brexit (mns)% difference in 2021 relative to

baseline


KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE

Trends discussed in this section in some cases relate to period January to September, although actual

coverage varies by destination. For the majority of countries, the latest available data point will be earlier

than this. Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination, including absolute values, can be

obtained from TourMIS (http://tourmis.info).

SUMMARY

Weak economic conditions persist in Europe, but travel demand has remained positive overall,

with 3.4% expected this year. In general, there has been a clear slowdown in demand growth from European source markets compared to last year.

Growth from non-European source markets has been robust so far this year, with a special 10-day holiday in Japan having a clear boost on travel demand to Europe .

KEY INTRA-EUROPEAN MARKETS

While not as negative as earlier in the year, the German economy continues to stutter. Gloomy surveys

and dismal hard data suggest that the economy is sti l l on the brink of recession but should be avoided

on the back of a resil ient labour market. If the sharp fall in the services PMI in September to a 3-year

low were to be repeated, i t would seriously question this view of domestic resilience and could have

impacts on outbound travel and tourism .

Fewer destinations reported declines in German arrivals

A lower proportion of destinations saw declines in German visitors when compared to earlier in the year,

but some of the declines remain steep. The steepest decline in arrivals was to Cyprus (down 17.9%),

albeit with a more modest decline in overnights. Several Central / East European countries also reported

declines (Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary) but the picture was brighter in the Baltic States

and some parts of the Balkans.

Montenegro continued to see the strongest growth from Germany with arrivals up by 104.7% and nights

up by 38.6% according to data through to August, albeit from low volumes (arrivals from Germany

accounted for around 3% of total arrivals to Montenegro in 2018). However, it should be noted that this

is slower growth than has been seen in recent quarters. The second strongest growth market for Ger-

man travel demand was Estonia with arrivals growth of 15.1%.

Both Slovenia and Serbia also saw strong arrivals growth and Turkey continued its recovery. However,

German travel to Turkey for 2019 as a whole is sti l l l ikely to remain below the prior peak achieved in

2015 and it is not yet clear what scale of impact recent geopolitical events in Turkey will have on German

arrivals. In the case of Slovenia there may also be some future impact from the filing for bankruptcy of

Adria, which is German owned.

Greece also saw quite a steep decline in arrivals (down 7.1% on data to June – and therefore, not yet

including the peak summer period). Germany is Greece’s biggest Western European source market.

However, Greece appears to have been one of the poor performers among a broader range of Euro-

pean source markets.


The Dutch economy has remained surprisingly strong so far in 2019 with private consumption growth

among the main drivers, which should continue to support outbound tourism. Data to June suggest that

the strongest growth in Dutch arrivals was seen in Lithuania. The Baltic destination saw 18.5% growth

in arrivals and 20.0% growth in nights. Lithuanian Airports, which manage Vilnius, Kaunas, and Palanga

airports, is now planning to handle up to 10 million people by 2030 and to significantly expand the range

of routes on offer.

Strongest growth from the Netherlands seen in Lithuania

Whilst Montenegro continued to show the second strongest growth in nights from the Netherlands, this

slowed to 19.4% growth through to August (down from 58.8% over the first four months of the year).

Arrivals growth fell behind Monaco and was the same as Estonia (12.2%). Strong growth in nights in

Latvia ensured that all three Baltic States fell in the top five growth destinations for Dutch visitors.

Countries with the strongest declines in visitor numbers from the Netherlands were concentrated in the

far South East of Europe: Greece (-20.7%), Romania (-12.4%), and Bulgaria (-10.9%). Iceland, Hun-

gary, and Spain also saw significant declines. In volume terms, growth to Spain is most significant with

3.8 million Dutch people visiting the country each year. Croatia also saw a notable decline in overnights

from the Netherlands.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20M

onte

negro

Est

onia

Slo

venia

Serb

iaT

urk

ey

Sw

eden

La

tvia

Lithua

nia

Neth

erla

nds

UK

Mo

naco

Den

mark

Fin

lan

dC

roatia

Pola

nd

Belg

ium

Norw

ay

Czech R

ep

Ita

lyA

ust

ria

Sw

itzerla

nd

Lu

xem

bou

rgIr

ela

nd R

ep

Port

ugal

Hun

gary

Slo

vakia

Icela

nd

Cypru

sG

reece

Ma

ltaS

pain

Bulg

aria

Rom

ania

Arrivals

Nights



Montenegro, 105% (A) & 38.6% (N)

German visits and overnights to select destinations

-10

0

10

20

Lithua

nia

Mo

nte

negro

Mo

naco

Est

onia

La

tvia

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Turk

ey

Slo

vakia

Sw

eden

Fin

lan

d

Norw

ay

Belg

ium

Cypru

s

Den

mark

Pola

nd

Neth

erla

nds

Aust

ria

Germ

an

y

Serb

ia

Slo

venia

Sw

itzerla

nd

Port

ugal

Ma

lta

Cro

atia

Czech R

ep

UK

Spain

Hun

gary

Icela

nd

Bulg

aria

Rom

ania

Gre

ece

Arrivals

Nights



Hungary, -10.5% (N)Bulgaria, -10.9% (A)

Romania, -12.4% (A)

Greece, -20.7% (A)

Dutch visits and overnights to select destinations


Growth to most European destinations is also stronger from France compared to earlier in the year.

France continues to deliver positive news amid an increasingly gloomy European background, although

there are now some signs that rising external uncertainty is beginning to affect the domestic economy

as well. This is due in part to Brexit, the ongoing US-China trade war, world trade leading indicators

showing zero growth, global manufacturing PMIs down beneath 50, a US inverted yield curve causing

worries about recession, and investment intentions sharply down.

Growth from France has strengthened from earlier in the year

Nevertheless, only seven countries reported neither arrivals growth nor overnights growth. However,

there are some key destinations for French visitors amongst these. The strongest growth was seen in

Lithuania and Turkey where both exceeded growth of 20% in arrivals from France. Some losses in

arrivals from Germany and the Netherlands have been countered i n Greece by growth in arrivals from

France – although as a source market for Greece, France is barely one third the size of Germany.

French arrivals to Cyprus have fallen 15.4%, largely due to the collapse of Cobalt Air which was the

main airline providing flights from France to Cyprus. But demand should return once air capacity returns.

There is also a concerning picture for the United Kingdom as France is i ts biggest Western European

source market with 3.4 million visitors a year. Based on estimates to June, arrivals from France were

down 9.0% despite the favourable exchange rate against the euro and sentiment may be affected from

the ongoing Brexit process.

Italian arrivals by destination showed a rather polarised picture in the latest data. The date of reporting

data could play a significant role in this. Earlier in the year there was considerable political uncertainty.

The situation has stabilised somewhat, and the likelihood of a recession has fallen but Italy remains the

laggard of the major economies of the eurozone.

A mixed picture from Italy after some political instability

There is some evidence to suggest that Greece as a destination has been replaced by a combination

of lower cost Turkey and Cyprus (hotel rates in Greece were the fifth highest in Europe based on data

to September). These are the two destinations which exhibit the strongest growth in arrivals from Italy

based on data to August. Arrivals to Turkey are up 37.2% following several years during which Turkey

fai led to attract large numbers of Western European visitors. This recovery may only be temporary

depending on how current political circumstances in terms of Turkey’s involvements in Syria develop.

Declines in Greece are significant, i t being the most favoured summer destination of Italian travellers,

and Italy is Greece’s third largest Western European source market in terms of arrivals after Germany

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Lithua

nia

Turk

ey

Czech R

ep

Gre

ece

La

tvia

Slo

venia

Ita

lyE

sto

nia

Fin

lan

dS

lovakia

Den

mark

Sw

eden

Ma

ltaM

onte

negro

Cro

atia

Neth

erla

nds

Norw

ay

Mo

naco

Hun

gary

Aust

ria

Germ

an

yP

ola

nd

Irela

nd R

ep

Sw

itzerla

nd

Serb

iaB

elg

ium

Spain

Port

ugal

Bulg

aria

Lu

xem

bou

rgIc

ela

nd

UK

Rom

ania

Cypru

s

Arrivals

Nights



Lithuania, 24.4% (A) & 28.9% (N)Turkey, 22.3% (A)Cyprus, -15.4% (A) & -24.3% (N)

French visits and overnights to select destinations


and the United Kingdom. Data show a 10.3% decline in arrivals data, albeit these are available to June

only, and later summer data may improve.

An even more substantial decline is seen in Italian visits to the United Kingdom, based on data to June.

An 18.0% decline in arrivals despite such a favourable exchange rate against to the pound for eurozone

visitors is very significant.

In contrast to most other major European source markets, the picture from the United Kingdom is less

positive than earlier in the year. The proportion of reporting destinations showing some form of growth

fel l to 59%, down from 75%. There may have been some short-term impacts from the collapse of some

low-cost airlines and package holiday operators. But the ranges of destinations re porting declines is

broad (although in al l cases except one these declines remain under 10%).

In contrast to other European source markets, there is a more negative picture from the United Kingdom

Destinations reporting the two largest percentage declines are Iceland (-12.9%) and Romania (-9.3%).

In the case of Iceland, this can be seen as a period of adjustment to the ve ry strong growth seen in

recent years. However, larger destinations such as Germany also saw declines, based on data to July.

Destinations which saw strongest growth from the United Kingdom tended to be lower cost destinations

in South East Europe such as Montenegro, Bulgaria, and Turkey. Travel from the UK to Turkey may

exceed prior peaks based on the growth in 2019 to date, whereas other Western European source

markets are sti l l recovering from the prior fal ls.

Initially, i t seems that the exception amongst these fastest growers was Italy which saw a 23.1% in-

crease in nights. However, overnights data only runs to March and the substantially lower increase in

arrivals, which is based on data to June, suggests that United Kingdom tourism growth to Italy as a

destination may be slowing down.

Spain saw arrivals from the United Kingdom fall but overnights increase marginally, based on data to

August – prior to the Thomas Cook collapse. Greece saw some continued growth in arrivals from the

United Kingdom (in contrast to the German, Dutch, French or Ital ian source markets).

Understandably, there remains huge uncertainly with regard to Brexit. New research from predictive

intelligence company, ADARA, suggest that both inbound and outbound bookings are being strongly

affected, although some of the findings should be treated with caution (factors other than Brexit are

l ikely impacting travel demand to Hong Kong, for example).

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Turk

ey

Cypru

sLithua

nia

Belg

ium

Port

ugal

Slo

vakia

Mo

nte

negro

Germ

an

yN

eth

erla

nds

Fin

lan

dLu

xem

bou

rgS

pain

Est

onia

Icela

nd

Den

mark

Ma

ltaA

ust

ria

Cro

atia

Sw

eden

Serb

iaS

lovenia

Mo

naco

Norw

ay

Pola

nd

Sw

itzerla

nd

Czech R

ep

La

tvia

Irela

nd R

ep

Hun

gary

Rom

ania

Gre

ece

Bulg

aria

UK

Arrivals

Nights



Turkey, 37.2% (A)

Italian visits and overnights to select destinations


In Russia consumer spending has slowed, constrained by real incomes growth and falling job vacan-

cies. This points to a weaker labour market wherein consumer spending has been mainly propped up

by rising credit. This increased indebtedness has started to weigh on households’ balance sheets with

retail sales volumes slowing sharply, and “big ticket” spending contracting. This may begin to seep into

outbound travel demand.

Russian visits and overnights to European destinations show a very different pattern of growth com-

pared to earlier in the year when Russian arrivals growth to Greece had overtaken those to Turkey; that

development has since been overturned.

In Russia consumer spending has slowed, constrained by real incomes growth

The latest data to June shows barely any growth in terms of Russian visitors to Greek destinations. By

contrast Turkey has seen 15.4% growth in arrivals from Russia and a new record number of Russian

visitors is very l ikely to be recorded in 2019, up 50% on five years ago, prior to fal ls.

There was strong growth from Russia to Serbia (29.9% growth in arrivals) and to Slovakia (31.0%

growth in arrivals). But growth for Serbia in particular is currently from a low base. Based on data to

June, the United Kingdom saw a fal l of 39% in Russian arrivals. Denmark also saw a 15.2% fall in

overnights, based on data to August.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25M

onte

negro

Ita

lyB

ulg

aria

Turk

ey

Est

onia

Mo

naco

Neth

erla

nds

Pola

nd

Lithua

nia

Port

ugal

Slo

vakia

Cro

atia

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Cypru

sC

zech R

ep

Den

mark

Sw

eden

Spain

Norw

ay

Ma

ltaS

witz

erla

nd

Slo

venia

La

tvia

Aust

ria

Serb

iaLu

xem

bou

rgF

inla

nd

Germ

an

yB

elg

ium

Rom

ania

Icela

nd

Arrivals

Nights



Montenegro, 25.9% (N)Iceland, -12.9% (A)

UK visits and overnights to select destinations

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Serb

ia

Slo

vakia

Neth

erla

nds

Belg

ium

Mo

nte

negro

Icela

nd

Turk

ey

Norw

ay

Slo

venia

Sw

eden

Cro

atia

Mo

naco

Germ

an

y

Ma

lta

Spain

Port

ugal

Hun

gary

Aust

ria

Pola

nd

Est

onia

Fin

lan

d

Sw

itzerla

nd

Gre

ece

Lithua

nia

La

tvia

Czech R

ep

Cypru

s

Ita

ly

Bulg

aria

Den

mark

UK

Arrivals

Nights



Serbia, 42.7% (N)Slovakia, 31.0% (A)UK, -39.0% (A)

Russian visits and overnights to select destinations


NON-EUROPEAN MARKETS

Europe remains an attractive destination for US travellers on account of a strong dollar relative to both

the pound and euro compared to a year ago. This makes much of Europe more affordable and contin-

ues to attract demand.

US travel growth to most parts of Europe remains strong

Destinations in the South East of Europe remain among the fastest growing destination in Europe for

US travel demand, with Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus sti l l reporting fast arrivals growth in excess of 20%.

Portugal, Sweden, and Norway have seen an uptick in US travel demand compared to earlier in the

year, with overnights growth of a similar magnitude.

Only four European destinations saw some form of decline, including Iceland (affected by the collapse

of Wow Air), Luxembourg, Lithuania, and Latvia. However, Latvia and Lithuania both saw an increase

in arrivals but a fairly steep decline in nights.

The overall healthy state of US outbound travel is indicated by the proportion of increases between 10%

and 20% (either overnights or arrivals), evident for a whole range of destinations from traditional such

as Spain and Italy to more minor destinations for US travellers such as Malta, Croatia, or Poland. Growth

to the UK based on data only to March was weak, with just a 1% increase in arrivals.

A specially enforced 10-day holiday in Japan in honour of Emperor Akihito in late-April to early-May

appears to have been positive for Japanese travel demand to Europe overall .

Monaco was fastest growing destination for arrivals growth from Japan with 37.0%. This growth is likely

to have been aided by an incentive group which visited during the Q1, as well as by a continued push

in Japan to encourage arrivals during Monaco’s off -season.

Spanish data through to August may now better reflect the impacts of the extended Japanese holiday,

with growth in both arrivals and overnights to Spain up in the order of 28%. Growth to Turkey was also

strong. The Netherlands reported strong growth with arrivals up 12.3% based on preliminary values to

July. Germany has shifted back into positive growth territory, albeit weak.

Declines in both arrivals and overnights continue in Italy, which continues to get poor press coverage

in Japan for extortionate prices, with reports of Japanese tourists calling the local police to dispute a

restaurant bi l l . The United Kingdom also reported declines of 21% based on data to June.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Turk

ey

Cypru

sP

ort

ugal

Sw

eden

Norw

ay

Gre

ece

Mo

nte

negro

Spain

Ita

lyS

lovakia

Ma

ltaC

roatia

Pola

nd

Fin

lan

dS

witz

erla

nd

Slo

venia

Neth

erla

nds

Mo

naco

La

tvia

Aust

ria

Est

onia

Belg

ium

Czech R

ep

Bulg

aria

Den

mark

Germ

an

yLithua

nia

Hun

gary

Serb

iaU

KR

om

ania

Lu

xem

bou

rgIc

ela

nd

Arrivals

Nights



Turkey, 31.8% (A)Latvia, -10.6% (N)

Iceland, -32.2% (A)

US visits and overnights to select destinations


While the Chinese economy has been slowing, challenged by the continued weakness of global trade

and the ongoing US-China trade war, there is l i ttle sign yet in the data of any impact on outbound

tourism to Europe. However, although the snap-shot picture looks very promising, early data from

‘Golden Week’ suggest a noted slowing in spend growth amid political tensions and a weaker currency.

Little sign yet of the impact of the Chinese slowdown on travel demand

Almost al l European destinations saw growth from China. There were only three exceptions: Slovakia

(which saw a significant decline in both arrivals and overnights), Germany (a decline in nights and very

marginal decrease in arrivals), and Latvia which saw declines in arrivals but an increase in overnights,

indicating increased length of stay.

Montenegro continued to have the fastest growth in arrivals (105%) while Monaco had the fastest

growth in overnights (104%). A large MICE event in Monaco in May and the official visit of Xi Jin Ping

to Monaco last March have helped put i t on the map. This growth was supported by a new flight con-

nection from Beijing to Nice (the closest airport to Monaco) which began service in August 2018.

Growth in Serbia also remains very strong with 49.7% overnights growth. More than half of reporting

destination countries (17 out of 30) saw at least one metric increase by 15% or more. Lithuania has

enjoyed a notable increase in Chinese arrivals. Although Chinese arrivals volumes are relatively low,

there has been stable growth for the last few years. This has been helped by the active promotion of

Lithuania as tourism destination in the Chinese market. In Cyprus, a large event in March has spurred

sizeable growth from China, albeit from low volumes.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40M

onaco

Turk

ey

Spain

Slo

vakia

Czech R

ep

Serb

ia

Den

mark

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Neth

erla

nds

Pola

nd

Lithua

nia

Fin

lan

d

Sw

itzerla

nd

Port

ugal

Mo

nte

negro

Germ

an

y

Cro

atia

Sw

eden

Slo

venia

Hun

gary

Bulg

aria

Est

onia

Icela

nd

Norw

ay

Ita

ly

La

tvia

UK

Rom

ania

Arrivals

Nights



Monaco, 44.1% (N)Latvia, -26.8% (A)

UK, -21.0% (A)

Romania, -24.8% (A)

Japanese visits and overnights to select destinations


The latest available data suggest that Turkey has overtaken Slovakia as the fastest growing European

destination for travel demand from India. Based on data to August, Turkey saw a 54.3% increase in

Indian arrivals. That is more or less the same as the growth in arrivals to April reported in the Q2 2019

report. Since then the ‘Destination Turkey’ roadshow toured major Indian cities, while IndiGo airways is

opening a direct route from Istanbul to Delhi. These developments bode well for continued growth .

Arrivals to Slovakia slowed to 6.8% growth but with nights continuing to grow at 33.4%, suggesting an

increased length of stay by Indian travellers in Slovakia. There were relatively steep falls in Indian arri-

vals to Bulgaria, Romania, Spain, and, most notably, Montenegro (albeit from a small base).

Slovakia was the fastest growing destination for Canadian travel demand. Based only on data to June,

arrivals from Canada were up 44.8% and nights up by 77.2% – again indicating an increasing length of

stay. This result was heavily influenced by Ice Hockey World Championship in May which was hosted

by Slovakia. Lithuania and Turkey also saw arrivals growth in excess of 30%. Italy saw a strong increase

in arrivals (19.3% based on data to June). Data to March indicate a decline in nights.

Nine destination countries saw no increase in either arrivals or overnights. Iceland saw a fall in arrivals

of 24.6% while Latvia, Sweden, and Hungary also reported steep declines.

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50M

onte

negro

Mo

naco

Serb

ia

Cypru

s

Lithua

nia

Cro

atia

Slo

venia

Spain

Neth

erla

nds

Est

onia

Port

ugal

Den

mark

Sw

itzerla

nd

Rom

ania

Sw

eden

Fin

lan

d

Bulg

aria

Turk

ey

Pola

nd

Icela

nd

Czech R

ep

La

tvia

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Hun

gary

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Norw

ay

UK

Germ

an

y

Slo

vakia

Arrivals

Nights



Montenegro, 105% (A) & 95.5% (N)Monaco, 104% (N)

Slovakia, -23.5% (A) & -22.4% (N)

Chinese visits and overnights to select destinations

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Turk

ey

Slo

vakia

La

tvia

UK

Mo

naco

Neth

erla

nds

Fin

lan

d

Serb

ia

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Pola

nd

Cro

atia

Germ

an

y

Sw

eden

Czech R

ep

Icela

nd

Hun

gary

Den

mark

Belg

ium

Sw

itzerla

nd

Aust

ria

Bulg

aria

Rom

ania

Spain

Mo

nte

negro

Arrivals

Nights



Turkey, 54.3% (A)Slovakia, 33.4% (N)

Latvia, 29.4% (N)

Montenegro, -62.2% (A) & -43.4% (N)

Indian visits and overnights to select destinations


-20

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-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30S

lovakia

Lithua

nia

Turk

ey

Slo

venia

Ita

ly

Fin

lan

d

Cypru

s

Spain

Aust

ria

Mo

nte

negro

Port

ugal

Cro

atia

Serb

ia

Pola

nd

Germ

an

y

Sw

itzerla

nd

Neth

erla

nds

Belg

ium

Bulg

aria

Mo

naco

Czech R

ep

UK

Den

mark

Rom

ania

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Sw

eden

La

tvia

Icela

nd

Arrivals

Nights



Slovakia, 44.8% (A) & 77.2% (N)Lithuania, 38.7% (A)

Turkey, 31.1% (A)

Latvia, -30.6% (N)

Iceland, -24.6% (A)

Canadian visits and overnights to select destinations


ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS

Based on the Tourism Economics’ Global Travel Service (GTS) model, the following charts and analysis

show Europe’s evolving market position – in absolute and percentage terms – for selected source mar-

kets. 2018 values are, in most cases, year-to-date estimates based on the latest available data and are

not final reported numbers.

Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure

of outbound travel for calculation of market share.

For example, US outbound figures featured in the analysis are larger than reported departures in na-

tional statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations. In 2014 US data reporting

shows 11.9 million departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals from the US was 23.4

million. Thus, each US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destinations on average.

The geographies of Europe are defined as follows:

Northern Europe is Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and the UK;

Western Europe is Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Swit-

zerland;

Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Mac-

edonia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, and Turkey;

Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia,

and Ukraine.


UNITED STATES

US MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018

Total outbound travel 119,443 - 4.3% 23.2% - 47.5% -

Long haul 71,947 60.2% 4.5% 24.6% 60.9% 42.1% 62.5%

Short haul 47,497 39.8% 3.9% 21.1% 39.1% 56.4% 37.5%

Travel to Europe 33,633 28.2% 4.1% 22.3% 27.9% 55.6% 26.7%

European Union 27,497 23.0% 4.9% 27.1% 23.7% 48.4% 22.9%

Northern Europe 8,111 6.8% 4.0% 21.9% 6.7% 63.1% 6.1%

Western Europe 11,757 9.8% 2.5% 13.3% 9.1% 49.5% 9.7%

Southern Europe 9,623 8.1% 4.4% 23.9% 8.1% 65.8% 7.2%

Central/Eastern Europe 4,142 3.5% 7.6% 44.5% 4.1% 39.5% 3.7%

*Show s cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated

**Shares are expressed as % of total outbound travel


Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America


Visits, 000s

US Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe



% share of long haul* market

Europe's Share of US Market


CANADA

CANADA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 15,560 39.9% 4.4% 23.8% 41.0% 34.5% 31.7%

Short haul 23,485 60.1% 3.3% 17.8% 59.0% -6.0% 68.3%

Travel to Europe 6,272 16.1% 3.1% 16.6% 15.6% 40.2% 12.2%

European Union 5,461 14.0% 5.1% 28.3% 14.9% 42.4% 10.5%

Northern Europe 1,305 3.3% 5.0% 27.6% 3.6% 28.5% 2.8%

Western Europe 1,909 4.9% 3.8% 20.7% 4.9% 13.8% 4.6%

Southern Europe 2,887 7.4% 1.8% 9.5% 6.7% 89.4% 4.2%

Central/Eastern Europe 170 0.4% 0.9% 4.6% 0.4% -33.4% 0.7%




Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rest of Long Haul Central/Eastern Europe

Southern Europe Western Europe

Northern Europe



Visits, 000s

Canada Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%





Europe's Share of Canadian Market


MEXICO

MEXICO MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 3,376 15.0% 3.4% 17.9% 14.7% 57.0% 12.8%

Short haul 19,182 85.0% 3.9% 20.9% 85.3% 30.5% 87.2%

Travel to Europe 1,756 7.8% 2.2% 11.2% 7.2% 58.0% 6.6%

European Union 1,608 7.1% 1.7% 8.7% 6.4% 59.8% 6.0%

Northern Europe 148 0.7% 0.9% 4.5% 0.6% 34.0% 0.7%

Western Europe 799 3.5% 3.0% 16.1% 3.4% 74.9% 2.7%

Southern Europe 633 2.8% 1.4% 7.5% 2.5% 47.8% 2.5%

Central/Eastern Europe 176 0.8% 1.7% 8.5% 0.7% 51.6% 0.7%




Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019




Visits, 000s

Mexico Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%





Europe's Share of Mexican Market


ARGENTINA

ARGENTINA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 3,794 29.0% -2.4% -11.3% 25.6% 62.5% 30.3%

Short haul 9,266 71.0% 1.1% 5.7% 74.4% 72.5% 69.7%

Travel to Europe 1,622 12.4% -3.6% -16.7% 10.3% 83.2% 11.5%

European Union 1,418 10.9% -4.2% -19.2% 8.7% 110.0% 8.8%

Northern Europe 141 1.1% -0.3% -1.3% 1.1% 22.2% 1.5%

Western Europe 77 0.6% 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 69.5% 0.6%

Southern Europe 1,263 9.7% -4.8% -21.9% 7.5% 97.7% 8.3%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America


Visits, 000s

Argentina Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%





Europe's Share of Argentinian Market


BRAZIL

BRAZIL MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 8,213 75.0% 2.6% 13.6% 71.5% 14.5% 73.9%

Short haul 2,732 25.0% 6.3% 36.0% 28.5% 8.1% 26.1%

Travel to Europe 4,504 41.2% 1.5% 8.0% 37.3% 16.4% 39.9%

European Union 3,900 35.6% 2.0% 10.6% 33.0% 21.0% 33.2%

Northern Europe 260 2.4% 5.5% 30.4% 2.6% -1.1% 2.7%

Western Europe 1,629 14.9% 1.5% 7.5% 13.4% -10.1% 18.7%

Southern Europe 2,231 20.4% 0.7% 3.7% 17.7% 51.5% 15.2%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Northern Europe



Visits, 000s

Brazil Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%





Europe's Share of Brazilian Market


INDIA

INDIA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 19,047 95.7% 7.1% 41.1% 95.8% 56.3% 95.3%

Short haul 865 4.3% 6.2% 34.8% 4.2% 45.3% 4.7%

Travel to Europe 3,290 16.5% 5.7% 32.1% 15.5% 63.2% 15.8%

European Union 1,556 7.8% 4.9% 26.8% 7.0% 45.7% 8.4%

Northern Europe 564 2.8% 3.2% 17.0% 2.4% 42.4% 3.1%

Western Europe 1,097 5.5% 6.0% 33.5% 5.2% 77.4% 4.8%

Southern Europe 355 1.8% 7.4% 42.8% 1.8% 24.1% 2.2%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Northern Europe

*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia


Visits, 000s

India Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia



Europe's Share of Indian Market


CHINA

CHINA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 49,877 50.6% 6.1% 34.3% 51.8% 100.6% 41.6%

Short haul 48,716 49.4% 5.1% 28.1% 48.2% 39.7% 58.4%

Travel to Europe 14,102 14.3% 7.1% 41.1% 15.4% 91.0% 12.4%

European Union 7,769 7.9% 7.4% 43.2% 8.6% 109.6% 6.2%

Northern Europe 1,150 1.2% 7.7% 44.7% 1.3% 126.5% 0.9%

Western Europe 5,904 6.0% 8.0% 46.9% 6.7% 58.3% 6.2%

Southern Europe 1,118 1.1% 7.6% 44.3% 1.2% 110.7% 0.9%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia


Visits, 000s

China Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%





Europe's Share of Chinese Market


JAPAN

JAPAN MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 15,641 63.3% 3.9% 21.1% 64.0% 5.9% 64.9%

Short haul 9,076 36.7% 3.2% 17.2% 36.0% 13.4% 35.1%

Travel to Europe 4,451 18.0% 4.4% 23.8% 18.6% -4.9% 20.5%

European Union 3,756 15.2% 4.5% 24.4% 15.8% -4.6% 17.3%

Northern Europe 593 2.4% 0.8% 3.8% 2.1% 11.5% 2.3%

Western Europe 1,852 7.5% 6.0% 33.8% 8.4% -15.8% 9.7%

Southern Europe 1,305 5.3% 4.4% 23.9% 5.5% -1.3% 5.8%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Northern Europe



Visits, 000s

Japan Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%





Europe's Share of Japanese Market


AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 17,975 96.6% 6.3% 35.7% 96.7% 24.6% 96.2%

Short haul 629 3.4% 5.7% 32.1% 3.3% 9.6% 3.8%

Travel to Europe 5,944 31.9% 5.4% 30.0% 30.6% 27.8% 31.0%

European Union 5,114 27.5% 5.9% 33.0% 27.0% 17.7% 29.0%

Northern Europe 1,449 7.8% 5.0% 27.4% 7.3% 7.6% 9.0%

Western Europe 1,787 9.6% 2.3% 11.8% 7.9% 16.0% 10.3%

Southern Europe 2,172 11.7% 7.2% 41.3% 12.2% 60.3% 9.0%





Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

Growth (2018-23)

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rest of Long Haul Central/Eastern EuropeSouthern Europe Western EuropeNorthern Europe

*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Oceania


Visits, 000s

Australia Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Oceania



Europe's Share of Australian Market


UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018


Long haul 1,914 61.4% 1.9% 10.0% 50.5% 41.3% 48.4%

Short haul 1,204 38.6% 11.4% 71.2% 49.5% -16.7% 51.6%

Travel to Europe 1,170 37.5% 1.2% 6.1% 29.8% 42.1% 29.4%

European Union 790 25.3% 1.4% 7.4% 20.4% 35.2% 20.9%

Northern Europe 389 12.5% 0.7% 3.6% 9.7% 28.0% 10.8%

Western Europe 408 13.1% 1.5% 8.0% 10.6% 29.1% 11.3%

Southern Europe 194 6.2% 0.5% 2.7% 4.8% 47.2% 4.7%





Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle East


Visits, 000s

UAE Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle East



Europe's Share of Emirati Market


RUSSIA

RUSSIA MARKET SHARE SUMMARY

2018

Total outbound travel 29,729 - 5.8% 32.3% - -26.3% -

Long haul 7,334 24.7% 4.8% 26.6% 23.6% -13.2% 20.9%

Short haul 22,395 75.3% 6.1% 34.2% 76.4% -29.8% 79.1%

Travel to Europe 22,395 75.3% 6.1% 34.2% 76.4% -29.8% 79.1%

European Union 9,853 33.1% 4.6% 25.4% 31.4% -13.0% 28.1%

Northern Europe 1,395 4.7% 6.5% 36.8% 4.9% -20.6% 4.4%

Western Europe 1,702 5.7% 4.9% 26.8% 5.5% -24.7% 5.6%

Southern Europe 10,159 34.2% 4.7% 25.8% 32.5% 7.9% 23.3%

Central/Eastern Europe 9,139 30.7% 7.7% 44.6% 33.6% -50.5% 45.8%




Growth (2018-23) Growth (2013-18)

000s Share**Annual

average

Cumulative

growth*Share 2023**

Cumulative

growth*Share 2013**

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rest of World

Central/Eastern Europe

Southern Europe

Western Europe

Northern Europe

*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations


Visits, 000s

Russia Long Haul* Outbound Travel

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations



Europe's Share of Russian Market


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Assessing recent tourism data and industry performance is a useful way of directly monitoring the key

trends for travel demand across Europe. This can be complemented by looking at key trends and rela-

tionships in macroeconomic performance in Europe’s key source markets which can provide further

useful insight into likely tourism developments throughout the year.

The linkages between macro and tourism performance can be very informative. For example, strong

GDP or consumer spending growth is an indication of rising prosperity with people more likely to travel

abroad. It is also an indication of rising business activity and therefore stronger business travel. Move-

ments in exchange rates against the euro can be equally important as it can influence choice of desti-

nation. For example, if the euro appreciated (gained value) against the US dollar, the Eurozone would

become a more expensive destination and therefore potentially less attractive for US visitors. Con-

versely, depreciation of the euro against the US dollar would make the Eurozone a relatively cheaper

destination and therefore more attractive to US travellers.

Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in the forthcoming section [Economic Outlook] are those of Oxford

Economics (“we, us, our”). They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of ETC or its members.

OVERVIEW

The recent run of soft survey data suggests that an imminent rebound in global GDP growth is unlikely

and that concerns about slowing growth and trade tensions may now be taking a toll on service sector

activity. We sti ll expect world GDP growth to slow into early next year; for both 2019 and 2020, growth

is forecast to average 2.5%, the weakest since 2009.

Although a number of closely watched measures of business activity such as the US ISMs and the

eurozone PMIs struck a distinctly downbeat tone in September, the broader global composite PMI fell

only sl ightly and has been little changed since June. We see global GDP growth easing into early-2020,

but i t is unlikely to plunge.

The risk of a global recession in 2020 – defined as world GDP growth falling below annual population

growth of just over 1% – has risen and we now attach a 30% chance to such an outcome. But our

baseline view is that a recession wil l be avoided.

There is growing evidence that uncertainty is prompting firms to scale back plans to raise capital spend-

ing and take on additional workers, but these indicators sti l l point to a further modest loss of momentum

rather than an imminent recession.

Meanwhile, the very l imited response of oil prices to Saudi Arabia’s recent supply disruption points to

fairly subdued inflation ahead. This in turn will support household incomes while providing scope for

further central bank policy loosening.

We think that a combination of policy loosening by central banks around the world, keeping financial

conditions highly accommodative, and the absence of any further dramatic escalation in trade tensions

should be enough to ensure that the current downturn turns out to be more of a mini-slowdown within

the economic cycle.

Next year, we expect global GDP growth to remain around 2.5%. But while this is a long way from

recession territory, i t would sti ll leave growth very subdued, even by post-global financial crisis stand-

ards, and the risks l ie to the downside.


SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, % CHANGE*

UK 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% -0.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% -0.1% 2.0%

France 1.3% 1.2% -0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% -0.1% 0.0% 1.2%

Germany 0.6% 1.4% -0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%

Netherlands 1.6% 1.5% -0.6% 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6%

Italy 0.0% 0.3% -0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%

Russia 0.9% 2.1% -0.3% 1.2% 4.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 1.8% 3.7%

US 2.2% 2.5% -0.2% 5.2% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% -0.2% 1.8% 2.0%

Canada 1.4% 1.7% -0.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 1.7% 0.0% 4.8% 2.1%

Brazil 0.8% 1.4% -0.4% -2.7% 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% -0.8% 0.3% 3.6%

China 6.1% 6.8% -0.2% 0.1% 2.6% 5.7% 6.5% 0.0% -1.0% 2.9%

Japan 0.8% 0.5% -0.1% 6.9% 0.7% 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 4.8% 0.9%

India 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 1.4% 3.1% 6.8% 7.0% 0.0% -1.1% 3.8%


* Unless otherw ise specif ied

** Percentage point change

*** Exchange rates

measured against the euro.

Country GDPConsumer

expenditur

Unemploy-

ment**

Exchange

rate***

Unemploy-

ment**

Exchange

rate***Inflation

2019 2020

Inflation GDPConsumer

expenditur


EUROZONE

The European manufacturing sector continues to sl ide, threatening to bring down the more resilient

service sector. Weak forward-looking indicators and persistent external threats continue to mean risks

are on the downside for the eurozone outlook. As a result, we have cut our 2019 GDP growth forecast

to 1.1% (from 1.2% last month) and for 2020 we expect the same outcome.

After expanding only 0.2% q/q in Q2, high-frequency indicators suggest the European economy re-

mained weak in Q3. The composite PMI fell to i ts lowest level in six years in September, and the average

for Q3 was below the level in Q2. The manufacturing sector remains mired in contractionary territory,

while the service sector is sti l l expanding but at a weaker pace.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator showed a similar picture, with a sharp fall in September leading to

the weakest quarterly reading in Q3 since 2015. Available hard data such as industrial production and

retail sales also show a weak European economy. As a result, we expect eurozone GDP to expand just

0.1% in Q3.

Inflation fell to 0.9% in September, the lowest in nearly three years, while core inflation remained stuck

at around 1%. We expect core inflation to stay weak in Q4 and then rise only very gradually in 2020 as

higher wage growth finally feeds through.

Given the deteriorating growth and inflation outlook, the ECB announced a comprehensive stimulus

package in September, including a 10bp cut in the deposit rate to -0.50% as well as a reactivation of its

asset purchase programme.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Germany

France

Italy

Exchange rate, dollars per euro

Source: Oxford Economics

% change year ago

Economic performance in key Eurozone economies, GDP real


UNITED KINGDOM

The Q2 national accounts rewrote some recent economic history. Growth around the turn of 2018/19

has been revised up sl ightly, with significant upward changes to business investment and the savings

ratio. But the latest survey evidence sti l l points to an economy struggling to grow. As a result of the

changes to historical data, we have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 1.3%, but with

1.1% sti l l seen in 2020.

Q2 national accounts confirmed that GDP fell by 0.2% q/q, but growth in both Q4 2018 and Q1 2019

was revised up sl ightly to 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. Meanwhile downward revisions to household

spending and upward changes to income contributed to a sizeable rise in the household savings ratio.

And the level of business investment was revised up, although the new numbers show an even sharper

deceleration in business investment growth since 2015 than previously estimated.

If the latest CIPS activity surveys are to be believed, the economy may have contracted again in Q3.

That said, historically the surveys have often painted an overly gloomy picture of the economy at times

of heightened political uncertainty. And a robust 0.3% rise in GDP in July sti ll points to output expanding

in Q3, a likelihood aided by the prospect of some firms restarting Brexit-related stockpiling in the run-

up to the now-void 31 October deadline. But the fact that some vehicle manufacturers had shut down

as usual in the summer, in addition to previous shutdowns in April as part of Brexit-related contingency

plans, means that a recovery in manufacturing output wil l not be as strong as previously hoped.

On the issue of Brexit, uncertainty will persist until the UK’s future relationship with the EU is known.

Having missed another deadline for departure (31 October), which has now been moved to 31 January.

Nonetheless, we sti l l expect a deal will be reached in early-2020, following a UK general election in

December.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Exchange rate, period average, (euro per pound)GDP, real, LCUConsumption, private, real, LCU


% change year ago

United Kingdom economic outlook


UNITED STATES

Recession fears resurfaced in early October with the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indi -

ces fal ling to their lowest levels since 2009 and 2016, respectively. Yet, while we expect industrial ac-

tivity to remain downbeat in 2020, we believe economic fundamentals remain broadly supportive of

expansion. We foresee GDP growth averaging 2.2% in 2019 before slowing to 1.6% in 2020. The Fed

wil l l ikely proceed with two additional 25bp rate cuts before the end of the year.

While the days of monthly payrolls rising by more than 200,000 are gone, this labour market still has

some fuel in the tank. The US economy added a moderate 136,000 jobs in September, in line with our

conservative expectations, while the unemployment rate fell 0.2ppt to 3.5% – i ts lowest since Sep-

tember 1969. Businesses were more cautious on the wage front, with hourly earnings flat on the month

and wage growth cooling 0.3ppt to 2.9% y/y.

We see the combination of weaker global growth, rising trade tensions, l ingering policy uncertainty and

subdued corporate profitability continuing to act as a powerful brake on business investment in the

coming quarters, while credit growth and domestic demand will offer only limited support in 2020. With

business investment likely to register a second consecutive contraction in Q3, additional or intensifying

headwinds could lead to an even-more severe pullback in capital spending and hiring – an important

risk for the economy.

Faced with the reality of a deepening manufacturing recession, a weakening domestic economy, a

cooling labour market, low inflation and the asymmetric risk of tightening financial conditions, the Fed

wil l have no choice but to implement two additional rate cuts before year-end to keep the economy in a

‘good place’.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Exchange rate, period average, per euroGDP, real, LCUUnemployment rate

Source: Oxford Economics *Unemployment rate is absolute

% change year ago*

United States economic outlook


JAPAN

Weak exports and a deceleration in capital spending continue to hold the economy back. And risks are

clearly skewed to the downside, given the recently implemented consumption tax hike and disappoint-

ing wage developments further weighing on demand. We expect GDP to grow 0.8% in 2019 before

slowing to 0.2% next year due to the impact of the consumption tax increase.

The manufacturing sector continues to struggle as weak external momentum weighs on business con-

ditions and sentiment. According to the latest Tankan results, sentiment declined in Q3 among manu-

facturers, particularly for machinery producers. In addition, industrial production remained weak in Au-

gust (-2% y/y) while the PMI stayed in contractionary territory at 48.9 in September. Real exports fell

0.9% y/y in August as tepid global trade, increasing trade frictions and the ongoing ICT downcycle

weighed on momentum. In contrast, the service sector continues to hold up better.

Risks are clearly skewed to the downside. Protectionism and concerns over global growth may further

depress sentiment and investment, in turn adding to the downward pressures on growth at a time when

the economy will be struggling with a loss of domestic momentum after the consumption tax hike. Alt-

hough we expect that the impact of the tax increase will be milder overall than past hikes, given offset-

ting measures planned by the government, the consumer outlook remains very subdued.

The BoJ at i ts latest monetary policy meeting announced that i t was leaving monetary policy un-

changed while stressing the increasing risks from abroad and hinting at the possibility of easing in

October. We expect the Bank may lower its negative policy rate further should the yen appreciate more

significantly. We currently see the Japanese currency at 105-107 per US$ within the coming quarters.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

275.000

280.000

285.000

290.000

295.000

300.000

305.000

310.000

Consumption, private, real, LCU

Exchange rate, period average, per euro


Billions

Private consumption in Japan

% change year ago


EMERGING MARKETS

There seem to be few catalysts to improve the outlook for Emerging Markets (EM). But for the first time

in a few months, real activity indicators in some countries suggest momentum may be stabilising, which

should limit the downside for growth going forward. Overall, our aggregate 2019 and 2020 GDP growth

forecasts remain unchanged this month, at 4% and 4.3% respectively.

The ongoing trade rift between the US and China continues to weigh on the outlook for Asia in particular,

but there are some tentative signs of Asian exports bottoming out. And despite China’s economic growth

continuing to cool, we have maintained its GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at 6.1% and 5.7%.

An upgrade to Chile’s forecast sees Latin America growing at 0.8% this year, the first upward revision

in many months. However, activity data for July reinforce the scale of Brazil and Mexico’s underperfor-

mance this year, with growth below 1% despite significant spare capacity. The outlook for the oil pro-

ducers, including Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, is also far from promising, with the former already seeing a

forecast downgrade.

Policy continues to focus on shoring up growth. In September, we saw further rate cuts from Brazil,

Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey, among others. While we expect many central banks to

push the monetary loosening cycle further, the ongoing strength of the dollar could l imit how much lower

EM rates can go amid pressure on currencies. But a number of governments are now stepping in to do

their bit to counter the slowdown, with the announced fiscal stimuli in Chile, India, and Russia expected

to yield some boost to activity in late 2019 and through 2020.

2008 2018 2028

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%China India Russia Brazil


% share, private consumption / GDP

Propensity to consume in key Emerging Markets


APPENDIX 1

GLOSSARY OF COMMONLY USED TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AIRLINE INDUSTRY INDICATORS

ASK – Available Seat Kilometers. Indicator of airline supply, available seats x ki lometers flown;

PLF – Passenger Load Factor. Indicator of airline capacity. Equal to revenue passenger ki lometers

(RPK) / available seat ki lometers (ASK);

RPK – Revenue Passenger Kilometers. Indicator of airline demand, paying passenger x ki lometers

flown;

Xmth mav – X month moving average.

HOTEL INDUSTRY INDICATORS

ADR – Average Daily Rate. Indicator of hotel room pricing, equal to hotel room revenue / rooms sold

in a given period;

Occ – Occupancy Rate. Indicator of hotel performance, equal to the number of hotel rooms sold /

room supply;

RevPAR – Revenue per Available Room. Indicator of hotel performance, equal to hotel room revenue

/ rooms available in a given period.

CENTRAL BANKS

BoE – Bank of England;

MPC – Monetary Policy Committee of BoE;

BoJ – Bank of Japan;

ECB – European Central Bank;

Fed – Federal Reserve (US);

RBI – Reserve Bank of India;

OBR – Office for Budget Responsibi l i ty;

PBoC – People’s Bank of China.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND TERMS

BP – Basis Point. A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point;

Broad money – Key indicator of money supply and liquidity including currency holdings as well as

bank deposits that can easily be converted to cash;

CPI – Consumer Price Index. Measure of price inflation for consumer goods;

FDI – Foreign Direct Investment. Investment from one country into another, usually by companies

rather than governments;

GDP – Gross Domestic Product. The value of goods and services produced in a given economy;

LCU – Local Currency Unit. The national unit of currency of a given country, e.g., pound, euro, etc.;

PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index. Indicator of producers’ sentiment and the direction of the econ-

omy;

PPI – Purchase Price Index. Measure of inflation of input prices to producers of goods and services;

PPP – Purchasing Power Parity. An implicit exchange rate which equalises the price of identical goods

and services in different countries, so they can be expressed with a common price;

QE – Quantitative Easing. Expansionary monetary policy pursued by central banks involving asset

purchases to reduce bond yields and increase l iquidity in capital markets;

G7 – Group of seven industrialised countries comprising the United States, the United Kingdom,

France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan.


APPENDIX 2

ETC MEMBER ORGANISATIONS

Austria – Austrian National Tourist Office (ANTO)

Belgium: Flanders – Visit Flanders, Wallonia – Wallonie-Belgique Tourisme

Bulgaria –Bulgarian Ministry of Tourism

Croatia – Croatian National Tourist Board (CNTB)

Cyprus – Deputy Ministry of Tourism, Republic of Cyprus

Czech Republic – CzechTourism

Denmark – VisitDenmark

Estonia – Estonian Tourist Board – Enterprise Estonia

Finland – Business Finland Oy, Visit Finland

Germany – German National Tourist Board (GNTB)

Greece – Greek National Tourism Organisation (GNTO)

Hungary – Hungarian Tourism Agency Ltd.

Iceland – Icelandic Tourist Board

Ireland – Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland Ltd.

Italy – Ital ian Government Tourist Board

Latvia – Investment and Development Agency of Latvia (LIAA)

Lithuania – Ministry of the Economy and Innovation, Tourism Policy Division

Luxembourg – Luxembourg for Tourism (LFT)

Malta – Malta Tourism Authority (MTA)

Monaco – Monaco Government Tourist and Convention Office

Montenegro – National Tourism Organisation of Montenegro

Netherlands – NBTC Holland Marketing

Norway – Innovation Norway

Poland – Polish Tourism Organisation (PTO)

Portugal – Turismo de Portugal , I.P.

Romania – Romanian Ministry of Tourism

San Marino – State Office for Tourism

Serbia – National Tourism Organisation of Serbia (NTOS)

Slovakia – Ministry of Transport and Construction of the Slovak Republic

Slovenia – Slovenian Tourist Board

Spain – Turespaña – Instituto de Turismo de España

Switzerland – Switzerland Tourism

europea tourism in 2018: trends ... - etc corporate · africa asia/pacific europe latin america...

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