european commission - dg environment clean air for europe jacques delsalle european commission...

European Commission - DG Environment

Clean Air for Europe

Jacques DelsalleJacques Delsalle European CommissionEuropean Commission

DG Environment, Unit C1DG Environment, Unit C1

Further Development and Application Further Development and Application of the TREMOVE Transport Modelof the TREMOVE Transport Model

WG Target Setting and Policy AssessmentWG Target Setting and Policy Assessment

Brussels, 16 June 2004Brussels, 16 June 2004

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe

Objective of TREMOVE Objective of TREMOVE further developmentfurther development

TREMOVE model was developed for 2nd Auto-Oil TREMOVE model was developed for 2nd Auto-Oil Programme Programme

It was assessed in 2001: recommended further It was assessed in 2001: recommended further developmentdevelopment

Objective : Make available to the European Objective : Make available to the European Commission services a transport modelCommission services a transport model environmental and economic analysis, up to 2020 different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric

emissions (incl. greenhouse gases) all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and

inland waterways) enlarged European Union (first step : 4 new M/S)


Structure of TREMOVE 2Structure of TREMOVE 2

Vehicle stock

turnover module

Fuel consumption

and emissions module

Traffic demand

Stock structure

Usage

Usage Stock structure

Fuel consumption Usage Cost

Speed & Load

Transport demand module

Welfare cost module

Life cycle emissions

module

Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues

External

Costs


TREMOVE Development : TREMOVE Development : project statusproject status

Lot 1 (2003)Lot 1 (2003) Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed by

March 2004 (available on www.tremove.org) Lot 2 (2004)Lot 2 (2004)

Baseline consistency checks with RAINS Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline

27-28 May : Transport demand and vehicle stock 21 June : Emission Factors

Identification of emission reduction options Model ready: Oct. 2004 (revised baseline, all modules)

Lot 3 (2005-2006) : Policy SimulationsLot 3 (2005-2006) : Policy Simulations


Tremove Contact GroupTremove Contact Group

Lot 2: 3 meetings to discuss the baseline and Lot 2: 3 meetings to discuss the baseline and the model structurethe model structure

Ad-hoc Group of Experts, build for Tremove Ad-hoc Group of Experts, build for Tremove AssessmentAssessment

30/4/04 : Invitation sent to CAFE Baseline 30/4/04 : Invitation sent to CAFE Baseline Stakeholder GroupStakeholder Group Positive reply : 6 contributions so far We need more!

A further meeting in autumn to discuss policy A further meeting in autumn to discuss policy options and Lot 3 organisation.options and Lot 3 organisation.


Consistency between TREMOVE Consistency between TREMOVE and RAINS baselines up to 2020and RAINS baselines up to 2020

TREMOVE uses more detailed activity data than TREMOVE uses more detailed activity data than PRIMES / RAINS (through the European network PRIMES / RAINS (through the European network model SCENESmodel SCENES TREMOVE and RAINS share common macro-economic

assumptions. While transport volume projections are close for road While transport volume projections are close for road

transport, non-road demand forecasts still deserve a transport, non-road demand forecasts still deserve a further work (rail freight, maritime)further work (rail freight, maritime)

Fuel consumption 25% lower in TREMOVE by 2000 Fuel consumption 25% lower in TREMOVE by 2000 than PRIMES (and Eurostat)than PRIMES (and Eurostat) gap increases by 2020 due to the large increase in diesel

cars market share (while in PRIMES/RAINS the latter is constant between 2000 and 2020).


Transport Demand : Transport Demand : SCENES forecastsSCENES forecasts

SCENES : a clear improvement since TREMOVE 1SCENES : a clear improvement since TREMOVE 1.3.3 get homogeneous forecasts for all countries and all modes a complementary tool for policy simulation

Key issuesKey issues Constant user costs in real terms 1995-2020 Load factors / occupancy rates Car ownership model in SCENES vs TREMOVE

Build a consistent baseline for SCENESBuild a consistent baseline for SCENES Take into account statistics 1995-2002 + existing forecasts Inclusion of (official) national growth projections for its input

assumptions (car ownership, level of user costs) e-mail to C.A.F.E. Baseline Stakeholders Group (deadline

10/7/2004)


Transport demand and Transport demand and Vehicle Stock modulesVehicle Stock modules

Utility trees : reconstitute SCENES ForecastsUtility trees : reconstitute SCENES Forecasts Determination of elasticities of substitution Some substitutions not allowed (e.g. short see shipping vs.

rail or road) Vehicle stock . Further improvements planned for Vehicle stock . Further improvements planned for

version 2.2 (October 2004)version 2.2 (October 2004) Load factors Comparison with TRENDS (Eurostat) for diesel share Limitation for growth diesel cars % : fuel production

constraints, car market. No a-priori objective. Rail : diesel vs. electric Aviation, Maritime : constant vehicle stock structure


Emission FactorsEmission Factors

TREMOVE 2.1 to be delivered this week, including TREMOVE 2.1 to be delivered this week, including COPERT III emission factors (due to the delay of the COPERT III emission factors (due to the delay of the ARTEMIS project)ARTEMIS project) To be discussed at Contact Group Meeting Monday 21st June

We are aware of the limitations of COPERT IIIWe are aware of the limitations of COPERT III Fuel consumption : until Euro I only. Ad hoc modifications

based on CO2&Cars Commission database Real life vs. test cycle emissions (Nox HGV) Artemis should be available by February 2005 and benefit

from Cost-346 and handbook on emission factors for road transport 2.1 (DE, AT, CH).

If not, need to focus Lot 3 resources on improvement emission factors module

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