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European Commission
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The Employment Strategy The Employment Strategy and the Lisbon Agendaand the Lisbon Agenda
- - The way towards more and better jobs? -The way towards more and better jobs? -
Luc Tholoniat
European Commission -DG Employment, Social Affairsand Equal Opportunities
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• The EES: a complement to other EU instruments(annual guidelines, recommendations and action plans since 1997)
• A key pillar of the Lisbon Agenda since 2000
• 2002 impact evaluation and 2003 "Kok report"
• 2005: Mid-term review of the Lisbon Agenda
The EES and the Lisbon AgendaThe EES and the Lisbon Agenda
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• observed progress stopped in 2001/2002
• some evidence of structural "improvements"
• impact on national policies: focus on employment growth;
move towards an active and preventive approach; role of human
capital; quality and productivity at work; gender equality; employment-
friendly reforms of tax/benefits; role of public employment services; use
of indicators and targets; monitoring and evaluation; etc.
… but no room for complacency
Main lessons since 1997Main lessons since 1997
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60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EU25
EU15
70%
DataAutumn forecast
%
Sources: Eurostat and Commission's Autumn forecast.
Necessary path to the 2010 targetNecessary path to the 2010 target
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GDP, employment and labour productivity growthGDP, employment and labour productivity growth
1991-1996 1997-2000 2001-2003 1991-2003
EU15 US EU15 US EU15 US EU15 US
1. GDP 1.5 3.3 3.2 4.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 3.2
2. Employment -0.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 0.4 -0.5 0.6 1.2
3. Labour productivity (31-2)
1.9 1.7 1.3 2.0 0.6 2.9 1.4 2.0
4. Hours worked per employed (a)
-0.3 0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.3
5. Hourly labour productivity (53-4)
2.2 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.1 3.3 1.8 1.7
Sources: DG‑ECFIN's Ameco database and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC).a) GGDC data are used to calculate average annual hours worked per employee.
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• Why a decline in labour productivity growth compared to the US?
- slowdown in business investment growth- deterioration in total factor productivity growth
• What hampers economic growth in the EU?- domestic demand- global imbalances
more and better jobs: not just a labour market issue
Is the labour market the main culprit?Is the labour market the main culprit?
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European Commission
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nd Pace of progress
since 1997
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low Close to average High
> 70 DK SE, UK NL
65-70 AT, CY, DE, PT FI, IE
< 65CZ, EE, LT, MT,
PL, SI, SKBE, EL, FR, LU,
LVES, HU, IT
Overall employment rates (cont.)Overall employment rates (cont.)
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European Commission
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European Commission
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European Commission
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nd Pace of progress
since 1997
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low Close to average High
> 60 DK AT, FI, PT, SE, UK CY, NL
55-60 CZ, EE, LT, SI DE, FR, LV IE
< 55 MT, PL, SK BE, EL, HU ES, IT, LU
Female employment rates (cont.)Female employment rates (cont.)
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European Commission
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nd Pace of progress
since 1997
Rates in 2003 (%)
Low Close to average High
> 50 CY, EE PT, SE DK, UK
40-50 EL CZ, ES, LT FI, IE, LV, NL
< 40AT, DE, PL, SI,
SKBE, IT, LU, MT FR, HU
Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)
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Annual growth rate of real GDP per person (1997-2003)
GDP per person employed in ppp in 2003 (EU25=100)
Low Median High
≥ 110 ITAT, FI, BE, FR,
LU, NLIE
75-110 ES DE, DK, SE, UK CY, EL, MT
50-75 PTCZ, HU, PL,
SI, SK
≤ 50 EE, LV, LT
Labour productivity growth and levels
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Areas of reforms (1)Areas of reforms (1)
Areas where policy response is most visible
• "Making work pay" (tax/benefits reforms)
• Reforming public employment services
• Designing and reviewing lifelong learning strategies
• Facilitating business creation and development
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Areas of reforms (2)Areas of reforms (2)
Areas where policy response is mixed
• Ensuring employment-friendly wages and other labour costs
• Promoting flexibility combined with security in the labour market, but risks of segmentation persist
• Promoting childcare to increase female participation
• Strengthening active labour market policies, but efforts seem insufficient with rising unemployment, esp. of young people
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Areas of reforms (3)Areas of reforms (3)
Areas where policy response is weak
• Developing active ageing strategies
• Improving the level, effectiveness and sharing of investment in human capital, including reducing early school-leaving and increasing participation in training of the low-skilled
• Addressing the gender pay gap
• Tackling undeclared work
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The new Lisbon Agenda (1)The new Lisbon Agenda (1)
Key challenges for the EU
(cf. also Commission's Social Agenda of 9/2/2005)
•Anticipating, triggering & absorbing economic change
•Demographic trends and ageing
•Diversity of performances in the enlarged EU
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The new Lisbon Agenda (2)The new Lisbon Agenda (2)
Three main objectives
• Make Europe a more attractive place to invest and work
• Support knowledge and innovation for growth
• Create more and better jobs (i.e. full employment; quality and productivity at work; social and territorial cohesion)
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The new Lisbon Agenda (3)The new Lisbon Agenda (3)
Key priorities for action
• attract and retain more people in employment and modernise social protection systems
• improve the adaptability of workers and enterprises and the functioning of the labour market
• invest more in human capital through better education and skills
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The new Lisbon Agenda (4)The new Lisbon Agenda (4)
Next steps
• Spring European Council (March 2005)
• Integrated Guidelines Package (Broad Economic Policy Guidelines and Employment Guidelines)
• National Lisbon Programmes (Autumn 2005)
• EU Lisbon report (January 2006)
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More informationMore information
Commission's Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities website:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.htm