EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Monthly Food Security & Nutrition Brief

SSS FSRD MeetingApril 9, 2008

Nairobi, Kenya

Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia

Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Update

Updated Somalia IPC Map and Population NumbersRapidly Deteriorating Situation in South & Central Somalia

Main Contributing Factors:1. Extremely Harsh ‘Jilaal’ Dry Season – Throughout Somalia

• Abnormally high temperatures • Unusual dry hot winds High evaporation of surface water Accelerated deterioration of pasture and browse

2. Increased Open Conflict and Insecurity – Throughout South and Central•Increased number and location of ‘Insecurity Epicenters’ Increasing population displacement (Mogadishu, Hiran) Further Trade and Economic Disruptions, Decreased Access

3. Continuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months•March ‘08 cereal prices are 215% to 475% of March ‘07•Abnormally high increases (up to 80% ) between Jan. – March ’08

IMPACT: Severity differs depending on pre-season conditionsMOST SEVERLY IMPACTED: Central regions, Hiran, Bakool, Coastal Shabelle, Pockets in Sool, Nugal and Hawd regions in the Northern regions

ClimateExtremely Harsh ‘Jilaal’ Dry Season – Throughout Somalia

Poor cattle body condition in Jalalaqsi/Hiran.

Huge fodder sales in Beletweyn, Hiran region, copping mechanism for

riverine.

Figure 1: Rainfall Anomalies (mm) March 1–April 2, 2008

CIVIL INSECURITY

Increased number

and location of ‘Insecurity Epicenters’ - Throughout South Central

MarketsContinuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months

Central Region Cereal Prices (SoSh)

% increase from Jan

08

% (de)increa

se from Feb 08

% increase

from Mar 07

Rice -3% -5% 116%Sorghum 22% 16% 138%Maize 18% 3% 79%

March 2008 Prices

Hiran Region (Belet Weyne) Cereal Prices (SSh)

MarketsContinuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months

% increase from Jan

08

% increase from Feb

08

% increase

from Mar 07

Rice 18% 12% 117%Sorghum 10% 11% 236%Maize 79% 45% 338%

March 2008 Prices

Shabelle Valley Cereal Prices (SoSh)

MarketsContinuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months

% increase from Jan

08

% increase from Feb

08

% increase

from Mar 07

Rice 23% 16% 131%Sorghum 76% 40% 224%Maize 72% 46% 228%

March 2008 Prices

Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) – WHO Somalia, Mar 12’08, bulletin

• Between Feb 16- Mar 9, 2008, 477 cases of AWD were reported from Beletweyn including 4 related deaths (CFR=0.84%).

• Overall, 49% of the cases (234/477) were reported from the MSF-CH hospital, 31% from Kooshin East IMC MCH, 10% from Buunda Weyne IMC MCH and 10% from Buunda Weyne SRCS MCH/OPD.

• 88% of the cases were children aged <five years

Distribution of AWD cases, Beletweyn District Feb16 – Mar 8, 2008

NutritionAcute Water Diarrhea Outbreak – Hiran Region

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008Comparison of January ‘08 and Revised April ’08 IPC Map

Map 1: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June ’08, (Jan. ’08)

Map 2: Updated Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June ‘08, (April ’08)

Updated Somalia IPC Table (April ‘08)Populations in AFLC & HE, January – June ‘08, Revised April ‘08

Affected RegionsUNDP 2005 Total

Population1

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region population

North 2,341,718 0 0 0Central Galgaduud 330,057 55,000 70,000 38Mudug 350,099 25,000 30,000 16Sub-Total (Central) 680,156 80,000 100,000 26South Bakool 310,627 85,000 20,000 34Bay 620,562 20,000 5,000 4Gedo 328,378 35,000 10,000 14Hiraan 329,811 60,000 35,000 29Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 20,000 0 8Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 60,000 15,000 19Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 40,000 85,000 24Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 85,000 155,000 28Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 405,000 325,000 20Banadir 901,183 . . .

GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 485,000 425,000 12

Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 910,000 12Estimated number of new IDPs updated April 08 745,000 10

Estimated number of old IDPs 275,000 4Estimated total population in crisis 1,930,000 26

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008Overall Summary

• Deterioration in Severity of Crisis: From AFLC to HE (Central, Bakool and Hiran Regions)

• Increased Levels of Warning: Moderate Risks to Further Deterioration in Shabelle Regions, Northern Parts of Hawd, Sool and Nugal Regions and High Risk in Hiran and Bakool Regions

• Total Number of Food Insecure is Increasing• Increased in number in HE from 315,000 to 425,000• Increased total number in HE and AFLC from 850,000 to 910,00• Increased number of IDPs from 705,000 to 745,000• Increase in TOTAL POPULATION in Crisis: 1.83 to 1.93 million• Missing Estimates for Populations in Crisis:

o Number of newly displaced people from Belet Weyne (Hiran)o Number of Urban poor in AFLC or HE

NOTE: FSAU Rapid Emergency Urban Assessment in selected main urban centers and settlements is ongoing throughout Somalia

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008Overall Summary

Risk Factors:• Gu Seasonal Rains (start mid-April to June)• Inflation – Cereal, Essential Staple & Non-Staple Commodities, Fuel• Civil Insecurity and Conflict

Implications: Contingency Planning for Increased Needs for Livelihood & Humanitarian Response:

• Central Regions – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities

• Hiran Region – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities

• Bakool Region – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure

• Shabelle Region - Increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities

• Northern Gedo - Increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE and Urban food insecure

• North Parts of Hawd, Sool, Nugal Livelihood Zones – New livelihood support needs for rural in AFLC

• Poor Food Insecure Urban Populations - New livelihood support needs for rural in AFLC

Other Food Security and Nutrition Updates

Malaria prevalence • 25 studies on malaria prevalence (P. falciparum)

were conducted in Somalia in 2007, using RDT. • The studies were conducted concurrently with the

FSAU led nutrition surveys, with support from the Global Fund. Data collected has also been in the Global Malaria mapping project.

• The highest prevalence was recorded in pastoral (20.8%) and the lowest in riverine zones (4%).

• The overall reported use of nets in the night prior to the survey was 14.4%, though it was higher in the riverine zone (21.4%).

• Overall infection prevalence was lower in net users (8.1%) compared to non-net users 16.6% - however some nets are in poor condition and require replacement (See photo)

• Additional studies planned for 2008

Children sleep under a mosquito net, which unfortunately is perforated, FSAU Huddur’07

RDT Summary Findings at Livelihood Level, 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pastoralists Agropastoralists Riverine Overall

Proportion

Prevalence ITN Usage

Nutrition