european commission project eurocat : european catchments changes and their impact on the coast
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Jędrasik J., Kowalewski M., Ołdakowski B., University of Gdansk, Institute of Oceanography Impact of the Vistula River waters on the G ulf of G dańsk during 1994-2002. European Commission project EUROCAT : European Catchments Changes and their Impact on the Coast Case Study VISCAT : - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jędrasik J., Kowalewski M., Ołdakowski B.,University of Gdansk, Institute of Oceanography
Impact of the Vistula River waters on the Gulf of Gdańsk during 1994-2002
European Commission project EUROCAT:
European Catchments Changes and their Impact on the Coast
Case Study VISCAT:
The Vistula River Catchment and the Baltic Sea Coastal Zone
Plan:
1. The ecohydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea
General discription• ProDeMo model
– algorithm + modifications
– Calibration, verification, validation
– quality evaluation of the model
– chosen results
2. Impact of the Vistula River on the Gulf of Gdańsk - examples
3. Conclusions
The ecohydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea
3D Hydrodynamic Model
Meteorological Data: Model UMPL (ICM)
River Inflows
Data
Production and Destruction of
Organic Matter Model (ProDeMo)
Solar Radiation
Model
Atmos-pheric
Deposition
ProDeMo modelAtmosphere
Water
Sediment
NUTRIENTSN-NO3
P-PO4
Si-SiO4
N-NH4
PHYTOPLANKTON
Blue-green algae
Spring diatoms
Autumn diatoms
Dinoflagellate
Green algaeDETRITUSCDETR
PDETR
SiDETR
NDETR
DISSOLVEDOXYGEN
NSED PSED SiSED
Active layer
Inactive layer
ZOOPLANKTONZooplankton
C:N:P
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1112
13
14
15 15 15
1617
18
1920
21
22
231 nutrient uptake 2 grazing3 phytoplank. resp. 4 phytoplank. decay 5 sedimentation 6 nutr. release f. sed 7atmospheric dep.8 denitrification9 mineralization 10 zooplankt. resp. 11 sed.of P ads. on particles,12 detritus sed.13 zooplankt. decay14 nitrogen fixation15 nutrient deposition
processes influen. dissolved oxygen
16 reaeration, 17 flux to atmo. due to over saturation 18 zooplankt. resp. 19 phytoplank. resp.20 assimilation21 mineralization 22 nitrification23 denitrification
Model Calibration
ProDeMo Algorithm
Set of the model coefficients Adjustment of the coefficients
Model verification Are the model assumptions
defined properly?
Is the agreement with measurements
(1994-1996) acceptable?
Algorithm modification
Model Validation Assessment of the model results based
on data from 1998-2000
No
No
Yes
Yes
Model as a reliable tool Applications for the environmental studies and management of the coastal waters in the Gulf of Gdańsk
Calibration
Verification
Validation
based at stations P1, P110, ZN2 for 1994 - 2002 period
as asessment of behavior of the model
test how the model results fit the observation data
Monitoring stations at the southern Baltic
P140
P39
P5 P63
Baltic Sea
KNP
P1
P101
P104
P110
P116
R4
ZN2
ZN4
Vistu la
G ulf of G dańsk
G dańsk
grid step: 5 N M
grid step: 1 N M
The hydrodynamic model is based on the POM (Princeton Ocean Model).
The numerical application of the model has been embedded on two nested grids: 1 NM for the Gulf of Gdańskin 5 NM forthe Baltic Sea.
A “sigma” transformation for 18 layers are used.
Validation of the model – station P1 z = 0m
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
NO
3[g
m-3
]0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12NO 3_OBS
NO 3_MOD
R=0.800
NH
4[g
m-3
]
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06NH4_OBS
NH4_MOD R=-0.037
Nto
t[gm
-3]
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
Ntot _OBS
Ntot _MOD R=0.480
PO
4[g
m-3
]
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04PO 4_OBS
PO 4_MOD
R=0.713
Validation of the model – station P1
Pto
t[gm
-3]
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Ptot _OBS
Ptot _MOD R=0.434
SiO
4[g
m-3
]
0.000.100.200.300.400.50
SiO 4_OBS
SiO 4_MOD R=0.269
O2[g
m-3
]
8.0
11.0
14.0
17.0 O2_OBS
O2_MOD R=0.852
Tw[o
C]
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
Tw_OBS
Tw_MOD R=0.976
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
S[p
su]
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
S_OBS
S_MOD R=0.503
Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable states
during winter and summer seasons in 2001 N-NO 3 [g m -3 ]
Depth
[m
]
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 obsmod
09.02.2001
N-NO 3 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 obsmod
21.08.2001
N-NH 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
21.08.2001
N-NH 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBS
MOD
09.02.2001
N-N tot [g m -3]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
OBS
MOD
09.02.2001
N-N tot [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
OBS
MOD
21.08.2001
Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable states during winter and summer seasons in 2001
P-PO 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 0.10 0.20
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
09.02.2001
P-PO 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 0.10 0.20
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
21.08.2001
P-P tot [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.1 0.2
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
09.02.2001
P-P tot [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.1 0.2
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBSMOD
21.08.2001
Si-SiO 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
09.02.2001
Si-SiO 4 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
21.08.2001
Observed and modelled vertical distribution of the variable statesduring winter and summer seasons in 2001
O-O 2 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
-5 0 5 10 15
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBSMOD
09.02.2001
O-O 2 [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
-5 0 5 10 15
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBSMOD
21.08.2001
Tw [oC]
De
pth
[m
]
0 5 10 15 20
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
09.02.2001
Tw [oC]
De
pth
[m
]
0 5 10 15 20
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10OBSMOD
21.08.2001
S [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBSMOD
09.02.2001
S [g m -3 ]
De
pth
[m
]
0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10 OBSMOD
21.08.2001
The vertical distributions of the modelled parameters follows the observations, however better agreements have been achieved in the upper layer than in the layer below the halocline (60-70 m).
Quality of the ProDeMo modelintegral square error [Ise]
spe
cia
l co
eff.
of
corr
ela
tion
[R
s]
PO 4
P tot
SiO 4O2 T
S NO3Ntot
NH4
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
PO 4
P tot
SiO 4
O2
TSNO3
Ntot
NH4
excellent
good
exc
elle
nt
go
od
for all variables at z = 0m
integral square error [Ise]
spe
cia
l co
eff.
of
corr
ela
tion
[R
s]
PO 4P tot
SiO 4
O2TS
NO 3
N tot
NH 4
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
PO 4
P tot
SiO 4
O2
TSNO 3
N tot
NH 4
excellent
good
exc
elle
nt
go
od
for all variables at whole profiles
An excellent agreement for salinity, dissolved oxygen and temperature.
Other compared parameters lie in the good range
except nitrate nitrogen as acceptable and ammonium nitrogen low satisfactory.
Mean concentrations of the modelled parameters for 15th June 1999
1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3
T e m p e r a t u r e [ ° C ]
5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5
S a l i n i t y [ P S U ]
8 9 1 0 1 1
D i s s o l v e d o x y g e n
[ g m - 3 ]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
N-NO 3 [g m -3]
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02
N-NH 4 [g m -3]
0.01 0.03
P-PO 4 [g m -3]
0.1 0.4 0.7 1 1.3
Si-S iO 4 [g m -3]
Variation in biomass and structure of phytoplankton modelled for 15th June 1999
Spring d iatom s
biom ass [gC m -3]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
D inoflagella te
biom ass [gC m -3]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
G reen a lgae
biom ass [gC m -3]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Blue-green a lgae
biom ass [gC m -3]
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Autum n diatom s
biom ass [gC m -3]
Prim ary production
[gC m -2d-1]
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
0.1 0.2
Zooplankton
biom ass [gC m -3]
Distribution of phytoplankton at Gdansk Deep station P1 in period 1994 - 2002
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
[gC
m-2
]
Autumn diatoms
Blue-green lgae
Green algae
Dinoflagellates
Spring Diatoms
The vegetation seasons start with the high blooms of diatoms during the spring. During the summer dinoflagellates and green algae dominates.
The blue-green algae are able to assimilate the nitrogen from the atmosphere. Their appearance varies from year to year since they prefer higher water temperature and solar radiation.
Autumn diatoms starts to grow in September and they dominate trough whole autumn.
Annual input of the Vistula River into the Gulf of Gdańsk
Q [km3]
36.3
5.5
PTOT [106 kg]
5.2
0.4 NTOT [106 kg]
136.2
13.2
Annual input of the Vistula and other rivers into the Gulf of Gdańsk
Vistula the second largest river of the Baltic Sea introduces into the Gulf of Gdańsk
85% of discharged fresh waters
90% of nitrogen compounds (it takes part 15% of N in the Baltic)23% is retained at the Gulf 92% of phosphorus compounds (it takes part 20% of P in the Baltic)34% is retained at the Gulf
Distributions of N-NO3 and P-PO4 in crossection through the Gulf of
Gdańsk from mouth of the Vistula River to the station P1 at 4th March 1995
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0
- 1 0 0
- 8 0
- 6 0
- 4 0
- 2 0
0
Dep
th [
m]
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0
D i s t a n c e [ k m ]
- 1 0 0
- 8 0
- 6 0
- 4 0
- 2 0
0
Dep
th [
m]
o b s e r v e d
m o d e l l e d
0 . 0
0 . 1
0 . 2
0 . 3
0 . 4
0 . 5
0 . 6
N O 3 [ g m 3 ]
0 10 20 30 40 50
Distance [km]
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Dep
th [
m]
observed
0 10 20 30 40 50
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Dep
th [
m]
modelled
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
PO4 [g m 3]
5 6 7 8 9 10 11[°C ]
Temperature[1m]
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 [gC m -3]
Phytoplankton biomass[1m]
0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 [gC m -2d-1]
Prim ary production
0 0.03 0.06 0.09 [g m -3]
N-NH4[1m]
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 [g m -3]
N-NO3[1m]
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 [g m -3]
Si-SiO4[1m]
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 [g m -3]
P-PO4[1m]
0 5 10 15 20 25 [cm s-1]
Spreading of the Vistula watersat the Gulf of Gdansk
during 11 April – 10 May 2000
The hydrodynamics influenceson the nutrient and phytoplankton distributions.
During the spring season influence of the Vistula River waters on the nutrient concentrations are even at the open waters of the Gulf of Gdańsk.
11 April – 10 May 2000, the main pathway of the Vistula River water - the North-West direction.
Sequence of surface distribution of phytoplankton biomass, nitrates and phosphates
at the Gulf of Gdansk between February 22 – March 27 1995
Feb 28
Mar 06
Mar 12
Mar 18
Mar 24
Mar 27
Feb 22
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
Phytoplankton biom ass [gC m -3] N -N O 3 [g m -3] P-PO 4 [g m -3]
Conclusions
Impact of the Vistula River on the Gulf of Gdańsk
From among various effects of the Vistula River discharge on the environmental state of the coastal waters are:
pathways of the Vistula River waters in the Gulf
temporal and spatial dynamics of nutrients
blooms and seasonal variations of phytoplankton biomass
ProDeMo model calibrated, verified and validatedusing monitoring data for 9 years period 1994-2002, resulted in the model obtained evidences (high statistical evaluation) which permit to consider it as reliable tool for studding the coastal processes in the Gulf of Gdańsk.
The model has properly described the seasonal distribution of nutrients, temperature and dissolved oxygen, however near the bottom it was overestimated.
Other compared parameters lie in the good range of quality of model except nitrate nitrogen as acceptable and ammonium nitrogen low satisfactory.
The biomass distributions of the five phytoplankton groups as well as time and places of their blooms appeared reliable.