european rail travel trends 2020

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Thomas Drexler Amadeus Rail

European Rail Travel Trends 2020

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Setting the scene

Rail 2020

Comprehensive picture of Europe’s passenger rail market

Evaluation of major rail segments

Identification of six key trends critical to the success of rail

Spotting new business opportunities for railways

Objectives of the study

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

20 European countries

95% of the European passenger rail market

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

High speed rail (>200km/h)

Long distance rail (>100km)

Short distance

3 segments used in the study

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Data from over 100 national and pan-European industry and government agencies

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Europe’s passenger rail market

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

passengers transported in 2011

10.2 billion

609 billion passenger kilometers

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

11% pax Long distance

29% 6% High speed Cross-border

based on 2011

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Russia Germany United Kingdom France

account for

60% of European passenger volume

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

-30%

-27%

-14%

Ukraine

Poland

Russia

Belgium

United Kingdom

Germany

Sweden

Switzerland

+53%

+41%

+54%

+44%

+54%

Total growth in passenger numbers since 2000

These countries’ passenger number is growing again since 2011

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

6 key trends

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

1 Liberalisation

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

The first railway package: access to

the trans-European network on a non-

discriminatory basis.

FREIGHT The second railway

package: opening of the rail freight market to

competition as from 1 January 2007.

PASSENGER The third railway package:

open access rights for cross-border rail passenger

services including cabotage1 by 2010.

PASSENGER The fourth railway package: open up domestic passenger rail markets to competition

and enhance quality.

Should be completed by 2016-2018

2018 2016

1 Cabotage is transport of passengers between two points in the same country by a railway registered in another country

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Market closed for commercial domestic passenger services

Open access, but no external railways providing domestic passenger services Open access with external railways providing domestic passenger services

Liberalisation in Europe as of 2011

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

2 New market entrants

˃ The potential impact of new entrants on the rail market seems very limited for the 2011-2015 period

˃ e.g.: Yosaria in SK, Leo Express in CZ ˃ Competition is expected to be mainly driven by incumbent rail

operators expanding their activities abroad

˃ New entrants will be cherry-picking key city pairs

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

3 Completion of new high speed lines

1708 1349

650

505

660

72 312

293

New High-Speed tracks to be set up

Rail tracks to be upgraded

˃ 5000 km of new high speed tracks before 2020

˃ From 11,000 km in 2011 to 16,000 km in 2020

˃ Spain, Turkey and Russia followed by France and Germany are the main countries investing in high-speed in the next years

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

4 Multimodal hubs

2

˃ Only 14 airports are connected to long distance or high-speed rail services.

˃ Demand exceeds capacity at many of Europe’s core airports.

˃ Under TEN-T, the EU supports the introduction of multimodal hubs at 37 key airports by 2030.

˃ This will provide passenger growth opportunities for rail operators, through competition and cooperation.

4 1

1

2

3

1

Hubs with long-distance (or High-Speed) rail services

Hubs with local / intercity or coach services only

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

5 ˃ Greater levels of

Air/Rail and Rail/Rail cooperation needed to deliver the seamless passenger experience that will drive up passenger volumes

Air-Rail and Rail-Rail Cooperation

Multi-modal hub

Cooperation

Rail links with special agreements (substitution of air service by direct rail link)

Paris

Zurich

Basel

Strasbourg

Frankfurt

Koln/Bonn

Dusseldorf

Leipzig Amsterdam

Stockholm

Brussels

+many airlines

+11 airlines

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

6 Railways costs

˃ Cost bases expand, rail companies won’t be able to rely upon external economic factors to improve growth and profitability.

˃ Instead, it will be necessary to innovate and develop new services, becoming more customer-centric in the process.

˃ Many railways will have to move away from long term investments (CAPEX ) towards a more variable coast structure (OPEX).

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Conclusion

Continuous growth in passenger rail market

Extensive high speed investments make rail travel

more attractive

Distribution systems grow together

Customers profit from wider distribution and better

connections

Railways and travel sellers win new customers and

gain more customer loyalty

© 2

012

Am

adeu

s IT

Gro

up

SA

Publication of Rail 2020 study

White paper publication in February 2013

Will be available for free at www.amadeusrail.net